疯狂与混乱成为了日常，而消费者和商业情绪则显得阴郁，待售标志像麻疹一样纷纷出现。
与此同时，股市的定价如同进入了极乐世界，参与者的多头仓位达到了历史最高水平。家庭和非营利组织在 2026 年开始时，近一半的金融资产以股票形式持有——这是有史以来的最高比例（自 1952 年以来见下图）。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/HH-and-non-profit-equities-as-percent-of-financial-assets.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/HH-and-non-profit-equities-as-percent-of-financial-assets.png"/>
专业基金经理的股票持仓和增长预期自 2021 年市场高点以来达到了最高水平（自 2001 年以来见下图，感谢《每日快讯》）。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Global-bullishness-since-2001.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Global-bullishness-since-2001.png"/>
与此同时，全球经理的下行保护对冲自 2021 年市场高点以来处于最低水平（自 2008 年以来见下图）。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Little-downside-protection-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Little-downside-protection-2026.png"/>
基金经理的现金水平为 3.2%，是自 1999 年以来的最低记录（见下图）。熊市中干粉充足；手头现金从未如此之低。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/cash-levels-at-record-low-2026.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/cash-levels-at-record-low-2026.png"/>
正如房地产投资者所发现的，当卖家希望/需要在高价位大量出售时，愿意且能够购买的买家寥寥无几。春季上市预计今年会提前开始。BMO 经济学家表示，房地产已进入向可负担性 “缓慢磨合” 的阶段：
<blockquote>
Andre Kutyan，Harvey Kalles 房地产公司的经纪人，去年秋天开始拍摄一些房屋的游泳池和景观，以准备在新年初上市，届时这些房屋可能仍被一层雪覆盖。
他计划在 1 月中旬开始推出新房源。
“我很好奇今年春季市场会多早开始，” 他说。
经纪人们也在关注二手市场上会有多少供应到来。
许多人听到婴儿潮一代的消息，他们一直希望价格回升而持有大型住宅，但现在决定继续出售。
一些拥有高价物业的房主也选择在经济不确定性持续的情况下缩减投资。
“你只能等这么久，” 他（BMO 经济学家 Robert Kavcic）对卖家说。“等待也是有成本的。”
目前买家的态度似乎是一种反向的 FOMO，即 “错失恐惧”，他说。
</blockquote>
这一切都是经典的。人类在财务问题上天生倾向于自我破坏，抵制群体思维需要纪律和深思熟虑。耐心的现金持有者提前准备好购买目标时，机会就会到来。
投资者的情绪周期并没有被打破，我们现在有表情符号来帮助表达它。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Cycle-Emojis.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Cycle-Emojis.jpg"/>
<hr/>
更多来自此作者的文章：
疯狂与混乱在一月继续
对 2026 年的欢欣希望
关于税率的真相

投资者情绪周期依然明显，尽管消费者和商业信心下降，但股市却处于历史高位。家庭几乎将一半的金融资产投资于股票，基金经理的股票持仓比例自 2021 年以来达到最高水平。现金水平处于历史低位，表明缺乏下行保护。预计房地产挂牌数量将上升，因为包括婴儿潮一代在内的卖家决定在经济不确定性中出售房产。买家则表现出一种逆向的错失恐惧，为那些有现金进行战略性投资的人提供了机会

Madness and mayhem are the order of the day, while consumer and business sentiment are dour, and for-sale signs are popping up like measles.
<div class="lb-trans">疯狂与混乱成为了日常，而消费者和商业情绪则显得阴郁，待售标志像麻疹一样纷纷出现。
</div>Meanwhile, equity markets are priced for nirvana, and participants are the most long of all time. Households and nonprofit organizations entered 2026 with a record near half of their financial assets held in equities—the most ever (shown below since 1952).
<div class="lb-trans">与此同时，股市的定价如同进入了极乐世界，参与者的多头仓位达到了历史最高水平。家庭和非营利组织在 2026 年开始时，近一半的金融资产以股票形式持有——这是有史以来的最高比例（自 1952 年以来见下图）。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/HH-and-non-profit-equities-as-percent-of-financial-assets.png" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/HH-and-non-profit-equities-as-percent-of-financial-assets.png"/>
Professional fund managers are positioned with the highest equity exposure and growth expectations since the market top in 2021 (shown below since 2001, courtesy of The Daily Shot).
<div class="lb-trans">专业基金经理的股票持仓和增长预期自 2021 年市场高点以来达到了最高水平（自 2001 年以来见下图，感谢《每日快讯》）。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Global-bullishness-since-2001.png" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Global-bullishness-since-2001.png"/>
At the same time, global managers are holding the least downside protection hedges since the 2021 market top (below since 2008).
<div class="lb-trans">与此同时，全球经理的下行保护对冲自 2021 年市场高点以来处于最低水平（自 2008 年以来见下图）。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Little-downside-protection-2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Little-downside-protection-2026.png"/>
Fund manager cash levels at 3.2% are the lowest on record since at least 1999 (shown below). The bear market is in dry powder; cash on hand has never been so low.
<div class="lb-trans">基金经理的现金水平为 3.2%，是自 1999 年以来的最低记录（见下图）。熊市中干粉充足；手头现金从未如此之低。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/cash-levels-at-record-low-2026.png" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/cash-levels-at-record-low-2026.png"/>
As real estate investors have been discovering, when sellers wish/need to sell en masse at high prices, there are few willing and able buyers to be found. Spring listings are looking to start early this year. See, BMO economist says real estate has entered a ‘slow grind’ toward affordability:
<div class="lb-trans">正如房地产投资者所发现的，当卖家希望/需要在高价位大量出售时，愿意且能够购买的买家寥寥无几。春季上市预计今年会提前开始。BMO 经济学家表示，房地产已进入向可负担性 “缓慢磨合” 的阶段：
</div><blockquote>
Andre Kutyan, broker with Harvey Kalles Real Estate, began photographing the pools and landscaping of some houses last fall in preparation for hitting the market early in the New Year, when they may still be buried under a layer of snow.
He plans to start launching new listings in mid-January.
“I’m curious to see how early the spring market will start this year,” he says.
Agents are also watching to see how much supply arrives on the resale market.
Many are hearing from baby boomers who have been holding onto their large homes with hopes of a recovery in prices, but have now decided to move ahead with a sale.
Some homeowners with high-priced properties are also choosing to downsize their investment as economic uncertainty continues.
“You can only wait so long,” he [BMO economist, Robert Kavcic] says of the sellers. “There’s a cost to waiting, too.”
The attitude among buyers at the moment appears to be a reverse FOMO, or “fear of missing out,” he says.
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
Andre Kutyan，Harvey Kalles 房地产公司的经纪人，去年秋天开始拍摄一些房屋的游泳池和景观，以准备在新年初上市，届时这些房屋可能仍被一层雪覆盖。
他计划在 1 月中旬开始推出新房源。
“我很好奇今年春季市场会多早开始，” 他说。
经纪人们也在关注二手市场上会有多少供应到来。
许多人听到婴儿潮一代的消息，他们一直希望价格回升而持有大型住宅，但现在决定继续出售。
一些拥有高价物业的房主也选择在经济不确定性持续的情况下缩减投资。
“你只能等这么久，” 他（BMO 经济学家 Robert Kavcic）对卖家说。“等待也是有成本的。”
目前买家的态度似乎是一种反向的 FOMO，即 “错失恐惧”，他说。
</blockquote>
</div>This is all classic. Humans are wired to self-sabotage in financial matters, and it takes discipline and forethought to resist groupthink. Opportunity arrives for patient buyers holding cash who’ve prepared their buy targets in advance.
<div class="lb-trans">这一切都是经典的。人类在财务问题上天生倾向于自我破坏，抵制群体思维需要纪律和深思熟虑。耐心的现金持有者提前准备好购买目标时，机会就会到来。
</div>The investor emotional cycle has not been repealed, and we now have emojis to help express it.
<div class="lb-trans">投资者的情绪周期并没有被打破，我们现在有表情符号来帮助表达它。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Cycle-Emojis.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Cycle-Emojis.jpg"/>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>More By This Author:
<div class="lb-trans">更多来自此作者的文章：
</div>Madness And Mayhem Continues In January
<div class="lb-trans">疯狂与混乱在一月继续
</div>Jubilant Hopes For 2026
<div class="lb-trans">对 2026 年的欢欣希望
</div>The Truth About Tax Rates
<div class="lb-trans">关于税率的真相
</div>

投资者情绪周期依然存在且活跃