<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>我想和你谈谈今天白银市场发生的事情。</p>
<p>正如你所知道的，白银价格已经呈现出抛物线走势，从十月底的每盎司 45 美元上涨到今天的每盎司超过 85 美元。在此期间，这种贵金属仅有两天出现了显著的下跌！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png"/></p>
<p>显然，这一波涨势有多种基本面原因。正如我所提到的，目前的宏观背景对风险资产，特别是通胀对冲资产，极其看涨。</p>
<p>简单回顾一下…</p>
<p>1）经济持续增长，税收收入（无法伪造）、零售销售（同比增长 7%）等都证明了这一点。确实，这一增长主要是由前 10% 的消费者推动的，但总体来看，经济在增长。</p>
<p>2）企业利润令人惊讶……向上。2025 年第三季度每股收益增长达 11%，这是连续第四个季度实现双位数的每股收益增长。</p>
<p>3）特朗普政府希望利率尽可能低。为此，六个月内总统将有效控制美联储。</p>
<ul>
<li>总统已经任命了七名理事会成员中的三名。如果莉莎·库克被迫辞职，这个数字将增加到四名（即多数）。</li>
<li>总统将在 2026 年 5 月之前（如果杰罗姆·鲍威尔被迫离职，可能更早）任命一位新选的美联储主席。</li>
<li>总统及其核心团队暗示，利率应尽快降至 1% 或更低。</li>
</ul>
<p>然而，白银价格的波动超出了宏观基本面。事实上，白银似乎在某种程度上正在 “撼动” 金融系统。</p>
<p>这将变得有些技术性，请耐心听我讲一会儿。</p>
<h3><strong>白银期货交易是如何运作的</strong></h3>
<p>大部分白银交易发生在期货市场。期货市场由集中交易所组成，在这些交易所中，合同被交易以在未来某个日期以预定价格买卖实物商品。最受欢迎的交易所是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）。</p>
<p>简单来说，白银期货代表了一种对白银进行投机的方式，给予交易者/生产者在未来以特定价格买卖白银的选择权（因此得名期货）。具体来说，每份白银期货合同代表有权买卖 5000 盎司白银。</p>
<p>现在，期货合同每两个月到期一次（1 月、3 月、5 月、7 月、9 月和 12 月）。如果一个人持有白银期货合同而在到期前没有卖出合同（或将其滚动到到期更晚的合同），<strong>他或她将获得每份合同对应的 5000 盎司实际的实物白银。</strong></p>
<p>当前的白银合同将于 2026 年 3 月 27 日到期。实物白银的最后交割日是 3 月 31 日。</p>
<p>在我写这篇文章时，CME 上白银的当前未平仓合约为 150,200 份。每份合同代表有权买卖 5000 盎司白银，这意味着当前白银的未平仓合约代表着 7.51 亿盎司的白银。</p>
<p>问题在于，根据 CME 的登记，<strong>其仓库中仅有 4.4 亿盎司的白银。</strong></p>
<p>换句话说，CME 在各种仓库中存储的实际白银数量是市场上交易的白银数量的 1.7 倍。因此，许多这些合同实际上是没有任何实物支持的。</p>
<p>这就是事情变得棘手的地方。</p>
<p>如果当前白银未平仓合约中的一部分选择实物交割，<strong>CME 可能面临潜在的系统性问题。</strong> 毕竟，你如何解释让人们对一个根本不存在的资产进行投机呢？在这种情况下，CME 与加密货币并无二致！</p>
<p>这就是白银价格飙升的原因。金融系统开始嗅到 CME 的 “水中有血”。</p>
<p>CME 试图通过提高白银的保证金要求来应对这一情况。当交易者购买白银合同时，他们必须提供抵押品来支持交易。通过提高保证金要求，CME 实际上是在迫使交易者提供更多资金来支持他们的交易（讽刺的是，正是 CME 没有实际资产来支持其期货合同）！在最近的加息中，CME 在 2025 年 12 月 29 日将白银保证金提高了约 13%。几天后，即 2025 年 12 月 31 日，又提高了超过 30%。</p>
<p>尽管这些保证金提高，白银价格仍然持续飙升。这种贵金属已经突破了三角形形态，涨至每盎司 87.50 美元。白银期货合同的价格甚至更高，达到每盎司 91 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>白银正成为系统性风险</strong></h3>
<p>这是一个重大问题。当多次干预/提高保证金未能阻止资产升值时，显然 CME 正在失去控制。这可能会成为一个系统性问题。</p>
<p>你看，CME 不仅交易白银期货，还交易从债券到股票、商品等各种资产。CME 合约的平均每日名义价值为 11 万亿美元，年交易量超过 1 千万亿美元（1,000 万亿）！</p>
<p>所以……如果 CME 允许没有实际资产支持的交易……那么交易者在意识到即使尝试也无法交割他们交易的物品时，CME 就会面临崩溃的风险。</p>
<p>难怪控制 CME 期货市场的 CME 集团在股票牛市中没有参与。相反，CME 的股票在过去 12 个月中一直横盘交易！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png"/></p>
<p>这一情况如何发展还有待观察，但我想提醒你，目前金融体系的一个主要支柱（期货市场）正开始出现裂痕。我会在这一情况发展时进行跟踪，但这可能带来系统性风险，情况可能会变得糟糕。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>日本即将破产……美国会是下一个吗？</p>
<p>日本即将破产……美国会是下一个吗？</p>
<p>“保持高温” 意味着全球大牛市才刚刚开始</p>

<p>银价已从每盎司 45 美元飙升至超过 85 美元，受到乐观的宏观经济背景和企业利润上升的推动。然而，白银期货市场面临系统性风险，因为 751 百万盎司的未平仓合约超过了 CME 的实物白银供应量 440 百万盎司。这一差异引发了对期货合约可行性的担忧，促使 CME 提高保证金要求。尽管采取了这些措施，银价仍在继续上涨，表明金融系统可能存在不稳定性</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/03/27/21/31/money-2180330_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>I want to talk to you about what is happening with silver today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我想和你谈谈今天白银市场发生的事情。</p>
</div><p>As you no doubt are aware, silver has gone parabolic, rising from $45 per ounce at the end of October to over $85 per ounce today. Throughout that period, the precious metal has had only two significant down days!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所知道的，白银价格已经呈现出抛物线走势，从十月底的每盎司 45 美元上涨到今天的每盎司超过 85 美元。在此期间，这种贵金属仅有两天出现了显著的下跌！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png"/></p>
<p>Now, obviously there are multiple fundamental reasons for this move. As I’ve noted, the current macro backdrop is EXTREMELY bullish for risk assets, specifically inflation hedges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>显然，这一波涨势有多种基本面原因。正如我所提到的，目前的宏观背景对风险资产，特别是通胀对冲资产，极其看涨。</p>
</div><p>By quick way of review…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单回顾一下…</p>
</div><ol>
<li>The economy continues to grow as evinced by tax receipts (which cannot be faked), retail sales (7% growth year over year), and more. True, much of this growth is being driven by the top 10% of consumers, but in the aggregate, the economy is growing.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1）经济持续增长，税收收入（无法伪造）、零售销售（同比增长 7%）等都证明了这一点。确实，这一增长主要是由前 10% 的消费者推动的，但总体来看，经济在增长。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Corporate profits are surprising… to the upside. 3Q25 EPS growth clocked in at 11%, representing the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit EPS growth.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2）企业利润令人惊讶……向上。2025 年第三季度每股收益增长达 11%，这是连续第四个季度实现双位数的每股收益增长。</p>
</div><ol>
<li>The Trump administration wants interest rates as low as possible. To that end, within six months the President will effectively control the Fed.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3）特朗普政府希望利率尽可能低。为此，六个月内总统将有效控制美联储。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>The President has already appointed three of the seven members of the Board of Governors. If Lisa Cook is forced to resign, that number will jump to four (a majority).</li>
<li>The President will have a new handpicked Fed Chair by May 2026 (if not sooner depending on whether or not Jerome Powell is forced out).</li>
<li>The President and his inner circle have suggested that rates should drop to 1% if not lower as soon as possible.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>总统已经任命了七名理事会成员中的三名。如果莉莎·库克被迫辞职，这个数字将增加到四名（即多数）。</li>
<li>总统将在 2026 年 5 月之前（如果杰罗姆·鲍威尔被迫离职，可能更早）任命一位新选的美联储主席。</li>
<li>总统及其核心团队暗示，利率应尽快降至 1% 或更低。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>However, the price move in silver is beyond macro fundamentals. In fact, it appears silver might be “breaking” the financial system to a degree.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，白银价格的波动超出了宏观基本面。事实上，白银似乎在某种程度上正在 “撼动” 金融系统。</p>
</div><p>This is going to get a bit technical so bear with me for a bit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将变得有些技术性，请耐心听我讲一会儿。</p>
</div><h3><strong>How Silver Futures Trading Works</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>白银期货交易是如何运作的</strong></h3>
</div><p>The bulk of silver trading takes place on the futures market. The futures market consists of centralized exchanges where contracts are traded to buy or sell physical commodities at a predetermined price on a future date. The most popular exchange is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange or CME.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大部分白银交易发生在期货市场。期货市场由集中交易所组成，在这些交易所中，合同被交易以在未来某个日期以预定价格买卖实物商品。最受欢迎的交易所是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）。</p>
</div><p>Put simply, silver futures represent a means of betting on silver by giving traders/ producers the option to buy or sell silver at a particular price in the future (hence the name futures).Specifically, every silver futures contract represents the right to buy or sell 5,000 ounces of silver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>简单来说，白银期货代表了一种对白银进行投机的方式，给予交易者/生产者在未来以特定价格买卖白银的选择权（因此得名期货）。具体来说，每份白银期货合同代表有权买卖 5000 盎司白银。</p>
</div><p>Now, futures contracts expire every two months in the calendar year (January, March, May, July, September, and December). If a person who goes long a silver futures contract does NOT sell the contract prior to its expiration (or roll it over to a contract expiring at a later date), <strong>he or she will receive 5,000 ounces of actual physical silver for every contract he or she owns.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，期货合同每两个月到期一次（1 月、3 月、5 月、7 月、9 月和 12 月）。如果一个人持有白银期货合同而在到期前没有卖出合同（或将其滚动到到期更晚的合同），<strong>他或她将获得每份合同对应的 5000 盎司实际的实物白银。</strong></p>
</div><p>The current silver contract expires on March 27th 2026. And the last delivery day for physical silver is March 31st.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前的白银合同将于 2026 年 3 月 27 日到期。实物白银的最后交割日是 3 月 31 日。</p>
</div><p>As I write this, the current open interest for silver on the CME is 150,200 contracts. With each contract representing the right to buy or sell 5,000 ounces of silver, this means that the current open interest for silver represents 751 million ounces of silver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我写这篇文章时，CME 上白银的当前未平仓合约为 150,200 份。每份合同代表有权买卖 5000 盎司白银，这意味着当前白银的未平仓合约代表着 7.51 亿盎司的白银。</p>
</div><p>The problem with all of this is that according to the CME’s registry t <strong>here are 440 million ounces of silver located in its depositories.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>问题在于，根据 CME 的登记，<strong>其仓库中仅有 4.4 亿盎司的白银。</strong></p>
</div><p>Put another way, there is 1.7 TIMES the amount of actual silver the CME has stored in various depositories trading in the open market. So many of these contracts are in fact backed by NOTHING.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，CME 在各种仓库中存储的实际白银数量是市场上交易的白银数量的 1.7 倍。因此，许多这些合同实际上是没有任何实物支持的。</p>
</div><p>This is where things get dodgy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是事情变得棘手的地方。</p>
</div><p>If a significant portion of the current open positions in silver opt for physical delivery, <strong>there is a chance the CME would face a potentially systemic issue.</strong> After all, how do you explain that you were letting people bet on an asset that wasn’t actually there to begin with? In this context, the CME is no different from a crypto currency!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果当前白银未平仓合约中的一部分选择实物交割，<strong>CME 可能面临潜在的系统性问题。</strong> 毕竟，你如何解释让人们对一个根本不存在的资产进行投机呢？在这种情况下，CME 与加密货币并无二致！</p>
</div><p>This is why silver prices are going parabolic. The financial system is beginning to smell the proverbial “blood in the water” for the CME.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是白银价格飙升的原因。金融系统开始嗅到 CME 的 “水中有血”。</p>
</div><p>The CME is trying to deal with this by hiking margin requirements on silver. When a trader buys silver contracts, he or she has to post collateral to backstop the trade. By hiking margin requirements, the CME is effectively forcing the trader to post more money to backstop his or her trades (ironic since it is the CME that doesn’t actually have assets backstopping its futures contracts)! In terms of recent hikes, on December 29, 2025, the CME raised silver margins by approximately 13%. It hikes them by over 30% a few days later on December 31, 2025,.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CME 试图通过提高白银的保证金要求来应对这一情况。当交易者购买白银合同时，他们必须提供抵押品来支持交易。通过提高保证金要求，CME 实际上是在迫使交易者提供更多资金来支持他们的交易（讽刺的是，正是 CME 没有实际资产来支持其期货合同）！在最近的加息中，CME 在 2025 年 12 月 29 日将白银保证金提高了约 13%。几天后，即 2025 年 12 月 31 日，又提高了超过 30%。</p>
</div><p>Despite these margin hikes, silver prices continue to soar. The precious metal has broken out of a triangle formation to the upside, rising to $87.50 per ounce. The silver futures contract is even higher at $91 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这些保证金提高，白银价格仍然持续飙升。这种贵金属已经突破了三角形形态，涨至每盎司 87.50 美元。白银期货合同的价格甚至更高，达到每盎司 91 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png" alt="" original-src="https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-2.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Silver is Becoming a Systemic Risk</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>白银正成为系统性风险</strong></h3>
</div><p>This is a MAJOR deal. When MULTIPLE interventions/ margin hikes don’t stop an asset from rising in value, it is clear the CME is losing control. And it has the potential to become a SYSTEMIC issue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个重大问题。当多次干预/提高保证金未能阻止资产升值时，显然 CME 正在失去控制。这可能会成为一个系统性问题。</p>
</div><p>You see, the CME doesn’t just trade silver futures, it trades everything from bonds to stocks to commodities and more. The average daily notional value of CME contracts traded is $11 TRILLION, with the annual trading volume exceeding $1 QUADRILLION (1,000 trillions)!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你看，CME 不仅交易白银期货，还交易从债券到股票、商品等各种资产。CME 合约的平均每日名义价值为 11 万亿美元，年交易量超过 1 千万亿美元（1,000 万亿）！</p>
</div><p>So… if it turns out the CME is permitting trades WITHOUT actual assets backstopping them… then the door opens to a collapse in the CME as traders panic realizing that they couldn’t take delivery of the items they’re trading even if they tried.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以……如果 CME 允许没有实际资产支持的交易……那么交易者在意识到即使尝试也无法交割他们交易的物品时，CME 就会面临崩溃的风险。</p>
</div><p>Small wonder then that the CME Group which controls the CME futures markets has NOT participated in the bull market in stocks. Instead, CME shares have traded sideways for 12 months!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>难怪控制 CME 期货市场的 CME 集团在股票牛市中没有参与。相反，CME 的股票在过去 12 个月中一直横盘交易！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png" alt="" original-src="https://gainspainscapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-3.png"/></p>
<p>How this plays out remains to be seen, but I wanted to warn you that one of the main pillars of the current financial system (the futures markets) is beginning to crack. I’ll be tracking this situation as it develops, but there is a potential systemic risk that could make things ugly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一情况如何发展还有待观察，但我想提醒你，目前金融体系的一个主要支柱（期货市场）正开始出现裂痕。我会在这一情况发展时进行跟踪，但这可能带来系统性风险，情况可能会变得糟糕。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Japan Is About To Go Bust… Is The U.S. Next?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本即将破产……美国会是下一个吗？</p>
</div><p>Japan Is About To Go Bust… Is The US Next?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本即将破产……美国会是下一个吗？</p>
</div><p>“Run It Hot” Means The Great Global Melt-Up Is Just Getting Started</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“保持高温” 意味着全球大牛市才刚刚开始</p>
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白银正逐渐成为一种系统性风险