<p>作者：Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>消费者暂时不必担心三天内价格飙升 62% 的问题</p>
<p>美国消费者可能暂时不必担心天然气价格的突然上涨。</p>
<p>预计将影响到 2.3 亿人的北极寒流可能导致天然气供应短缺，因为家庭会调高暖气温度。</p>
<p>然而，消费者可以暂时松一口气，因为储存中的供应和公用事业公司的对冲措施似乎能够为周二至周四之间上涨约 62% 的天然气期货提供缓冲。</p>
<p>“从历史上看，天然气是商品市场中的野兽，” 瑞穗证券美国公司能源期货主管 Robert Yawger 表示。“人们认为我们在过去几周从白银中获得了一些相当大的数字，但这个天然气市场可以迅速大幅波动。”</p>
<p>阅读：随着气温下降，天然气价格飙升。这可能是十年来市场面临的最严峻考验。</p>
<p>据道琼斯市场数据，天然气（NGG26）2 月份交割的价格在周四收于每百万英热单位 5.045 美元，较前一日上涨 3.5%，为自 12 月 5 日以来的最高点。仅在周三，价格就上涨了近 25%。</p>
<p>周三天然气期货的飙升可以说是 “轻描淡写，因为价格的涨幅具有历史意义，” Sevens Report Research 的联合编辑 Tyler Richey 在周四的通讯中表示。“天然气显然处于一个受天气驱动的市场动态中，基本需求推动价格波动，未来可能会有更极端的变动，具体取决于预测的进一步修正。”</p>
<p>这一商品的涨幅延续到周四，价格交易高达 5.65 美元，为 2022 年 12 月 22 日以来的最高日内水平，随后大部分涨幅回落。</p>
<p>随着天气频道在周四警告称，预计将有一场 “重大、广泛、持久” 的冬季风暴从周五到周一袭击南部、中西部和东北部部分地区，可能会给从新墨西哥州和德克萨斯州到新英格兰部分地区的数百万人带来破坏性的冰雪。</p>
<p>预测显示，纽约市地区将有多天的夜间低温将降至个位数，Yawger 表示，10 天预测中最冷的一天看起来是最后一天，夜间低温为 3 度。</p>
<p>“这看起来不会很快消失。人们将在接下来的两周内频繁使用暖气，” 他说。这将对储存中的天然气供应造成 “巨大消耗”。</p>
<p>这场 “深度北极波” 天气预计将覆盖美国大约 50% 的地区，涉及多达 30 个州，因此这是一场不会很快离开的重大风暴，Yawger 表示。</p>
<p>阅读：即将来袭的冬季风暴为何可能对飞行特别危险</p>
<p>消费者的平静</p>
<p>目前，全国各地的天然气消费者可能不会看到价格上涨带来的显著影响，因为公用事业公司通常会为这样的天气事件做好财务准备。</p>
<p>“公用事业公司会提前购买天然气，从而减少对交易波动的暴露。” Beth Sewell，Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services。</p>
<p>“公用事业公司会提前购买天然气，从而减少对交易波动的暴露，” Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services 的总裁兼首席执行官 Beth Sewell 表示，该公司提供能源管理、采购和咨询服务。</p>
<p>鉴于此，她认为天然气价格的上涨 “更多是交易者因市场波动而感到兴奋，认为这是一个赚钱的机会，而不是对零售客户的实际长期影响。”</p>
<p>Sewell 的公司支持零售营销商——这些营销商为客户购买、销售和管理天然气供应——总体而言，这并没有对他们产生太大影响，因为他们大部分的天然气需求已经在本月内购买，许多公司还有储存资产可以在这样的时期满足需求，她说。</p>
<p>大多数住宅客户通过对冲活动和受监管的费率结构来保护自己免受公用事业公司成本上涨的影响，Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund MLXAX 的联合投资组合经理 Henry Hoffman 表示。这可以帮助控制消费者的月账单。</p>
<p>然而，剧烈的价格飙升仍然可能 “给对冲不足的公用事业公司施加压力，可能导致收益波动或成本回收延迟，” 他说。</p>
<p>“巨量” 供应下降</p>
<p>尽管如此，目前发生的事情可能会对夏季制冷季节和下一个冬季的天然气供应状况产生重大影响。</p>
<p>天然气市场上有关于将会出现 “巨量” 供应提取的猜测——可能在两周内，一些市场预测显示可能会出现超过 3500 亿立方英尺的提取，瑞穗的 Yawger 表示。</p>
<p>如果这一情况实现，“这将是有史以来第二大储存提取，” 他说，并补充说，能源信息管理局的储存报告历史上仅有四次提取超过 3000 亿立方英尺。</p>
<p>截至 1 月 16 日的一周，EIA 报告称美国天然气储存量下降了 120 亿立方英尺，降至 3.065 万亿立方英尺。储存量仍然高于去年同期水平和五年平均水平，数据显示。</p>
<p>目前库存水平并不令人担忧，但如果寒冷持续，“库存可能会迅速收紧，即使从一个舒适的起点出发，” Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund 的 Hoffman 表示。</p>
<p>更令人担忧的是，极端天气可能导致接下来的四周库存减少总计约 850 亿立方英尺，Gabelli Funds 的投资组合经理 Simon Wong 表示。同时，他提到，“冻结停产” 是指由于寒冷天气和冰冻导致的生产减缓，这可能会减少阿巴拉契亚、巴肯、南中部和二叠纪地区的产量。</p>
<p>以这种速度，3 月份的天然气库存可能会达到约 1.65 万亿立方英尺，这将比五年平均水平低 10%；而夏季结束时的库存可能会达到约 3.68 万亿立方英尺，或比五年平均水平低 2%，Wong 表示。</p>
<p>这将导致到 2026 年冬季末及 2027 年初市场出现 “显著的赤字”，Wong 表示。</p>
<p>他说，届时生产必须至少每天增长 40 亿立方英尺。如果不这样做，2026 至 2027 年冬季的期货合约价格可能会进一步上涨。</p>
<p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
<p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>01-22-26 1612ET</p>

2 倍做多彭博天然气 ETF - ProShares

美国近 12 月期天然气 ETF

2 倍做空彭博天然气 ETF - ProShares

美国天然气 ETF

天然气股指数 ETF - First Trust

<p>天然气价格因即将来临的冬季风暴而飙升了 62%，该风暴将影响美国 2.3 亿人。尽管价格上涨，消费者可能不会立即感受到取暖费用的影响，因为公用事业公司已对价格波动进行了对冲。2 月份的交付价格定在每百万 BTU 5.045 美元，预测显示储存将出现显著的提取。专家警告，虽然当前的价格上涨可能不会直接影响消费者，但可能会影响即将到来的夏季和下一个冬季的供应水平</p>

<p>By Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>Consumers don't yet have to worry about the three-session 62% spike in prices</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者暂时不必担心三天内价格飙升 62% 的问题</p>
</div><p>U.S. consumers might not have to worry just yet about the sudden rise in natural-gas prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国消费者可能暂时不必担心天然气价格的突然上涨。</p>
</div><p>The arctic blast that's expected to affect 230 million people across the United States could lead to a potential shortage in natural-gas supplies as households turn up their thermostats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计将影响到 2.3 亿人的北极寒流可能导致天然气供应短缺，因为家庭会调高暖气温度。</p>
</div><p>Consumers, however, can breathe a sign of relief - for now - as supplies in storage and hedging by utilities look to provide a buffer from a surge in natural-gas futures that climbed by roughly 62% between Tuesday and Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，消费者可以暂时松一口气，因为储存中的供应和公用事业公司的对冲措施似乎能够为周二至周四之间上涨约 62% 的天然气期货提供缓冲。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Natural gas, historically speaking, is the wild animal of the commodities space,&#34; said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA. &#34;People thought we were getting some pretty big numbers out of silver here in the last couple of weeks, but this natural-gas market can go really far, really fast.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“从历史上看，天然气是商品市场中的野兽，” 瑞穗证券美国公司能源期货主管 Robert Yawger 表示。“人们认为我们在过去几周从白银中获得了一些相当大的数字，但这个天然气市场可以迅速大幅波动。”</p>
</div><p>Read: Natural-gas prices soar as temperatures drop. It could be the toughest test for the markets in a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：随着气温下降，天然气价格飙升。这可能是十年来市场面临的最严峻考验。</p>
</div><p>By all accounts, prices already have. Natural gas for February delivery (NGG26) settled at $5.045 per million British thermal units on Thursday, edging up by 3.5% to finish at the highest since Dec. 5, according to Dow Jones Market Data. On Wednesday alone, prices jumped nearly 25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据道琼斯市场数据，天然气（NGG26）2 月份交割的价格在周四收于每百万英热单位 5.045 美元，较前一日上涨 3.5%，为自 12 月 5 日以来的最高点。仅在周三，价格就上涨了近 25%。</p>
</div><p>To say that natural-gas futures surged on Wednesday would be &#34;an understatement as prices posted a gain of historic magnitude,&#34; said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, in Thursday's newsletter. &#34;Natural gas is clearly in a weather-driven market dynamic with fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三天然气期货的飙升可以说是 “轻描淡写，因为价格的涨幅具有历史意义，” Sevens Report Research 的联合编辑 Tyler Richey 在周四的通讯中表示。“天然气显然处于一个受天气驱动的市场动态中，基本需求推动价格波动，未来可能会有更极端的变动，具体取决于预测的进一步修正。”</p>
</div><p>The gains for the commodity extended into Thursday, with prices trading as high $5.65, the highest intraday level since Dec. 22, 2022, before paring much of that rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一商品的涨幅延续到周四，价格交易高达 5.65 美元，为 2022 年 12 月 22 日以来的最高日内水平，随后大部分涨幅回落。</p>
</div><p>The recent price increases have come as the Weather Channel warned Thursday of that a &#34;major, widespread, long-lasting&#34; winter storm is expected to hit parts of the South, Midwest and Northeast from Friday through Monday, with &#34;potentially damaging ice and heavy snow for million from New Mexico and Texas to parts of New England.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着天气频道在周四警告称，预计将有一场 “重大、广泛、持久” 的冬季风暴从周五到周一袭击南部、中西部和东北部部分地区，可能会给从新墨西哥州和德克萨斯州到新英格兰部分地区的数百万人带来破坏性的冰雪。</p>
</div><p>Forecasts call for multiple days in the New York City area where the overnight low temperatures are going to be in the single digits, said Yawger, adding that the coldest day of all looks to be the last day on the 10-day forecast, with an overnight low of 3 degrees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测显示，纽约市地区将有多天的夜间低温将降至个位数，Yawger 表示，10 天预测中最冷的一天看起来是最后一天，夜间低温为 3 度。</p>
</div><p>&#34;That doesn't look like it'll go away anytime soon. People are going to be heavy on the thermostat for a good two weeks,&#34; he said. That's going to create a &#34;draw big&#34; on natural-gas supplies in storage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这看起来不会很快消失。人们将在接下来的两周内频繁使用暖气，” 他说。这将对储存中的天然气供应造成 “巨大消耗”。</p>
</div><p>This &#34;deep-dive arctic wave&#34; of weather is expected to envelop basically 50% of the U.S. - as many as 30 states, so it's a big storm that's not leaving soon, said Yawger.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这场 “深度北极波” 天气预计将覆盖美国大约 50% 的地区，涉及多达 30 个州，因此这是一场不会很快离开的重大风暴，Yawger 表示。</p>
</div><p>Read: Why the winter storm that's about to hit could be especially treacherous for flying</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：即将来袭的冬季风暴为何可能对飞行特别危险</p>
</div><p>Consumer calm</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消费者的平静</p>
</div><p>For now, natural-gas consumers across the country might not see any significant effects from the price increases since utilities tend to prepare financially for weather events like these.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，全国各地的天然气消费者可能不会看到价格上涨带来的显著影响，因为公用事业公司通常会为这样的天气事件做好财务准备。</p>
</div><p>'Utilities buy their gas well ahead of any weather events, thus reducing exposure to trading volatility.'Beth Sewell, Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“公用事业公司会提前购买天然气，从而减少对交易波动的暴露。” Beth Sewell，Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Utilities buy their gas well ahead of any weather events, thus reducing exposure to trading volatility,&#34; said Beth Sewell, president and chief executive at Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services, an energy management, procurement and consulting services firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“公用事业公司会提前购买天然气，从而减少对交易波动的暴露，” Quantum Gas &amp; Power Services 的总裁兼首席执行官 Beth Sewell 表示，该公司提供能源管理、采购和咨询服务。</p>
</div><p>Given that, she thinks the jump in natural-gas prices is &#34;more about traders thrilled with massive market volatility presenting them with an opportunity to make money - and less about actual long-term impact to retail customers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于此，她认为天然气价格的上涨 “更多是交易者因市场波动而感到兴奋，认为这是一个赚钱的机会，而不是对零售客户的实际长期影响。”</p>
</div><p>Sewell's company supports retail marketers - which buy, sell, and manage natural gas-supply for customers - and, by and large, it's not really impacting them since most of their gas needs have been purchased for the month, and many have storage assets to draw on to fill demand during times like these, she said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Sewell 的公司支持零售营销商——这些营销商为客户购买、销售和管理天然气供应——总体而言，这并没有对他们产生太大影响，因为他们大部分的天然气需求已经在本月内购买，许多公司还有储存资产可以在这样的时期满足需求，她说。</p>
</div><p>Most residential customers are shielded from higher costs for utilities through hedging activities and by regulated rate structures, said Henry Hoffman, co-portfolio manager of the Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund MLXAX. That can help keep a lid on monthly bills for consumers,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数住宅客户通过对冲活动和受监管的费率结构来保护自己免受公用事业公司成本上涨的影响，Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund MLXAX 的联合投资组合经理 Henry Hoffman 表示。这可以帮助控制消费者的月账单。</p>
</div><p>Sharp price spikes, however, can &#34;still pressure utilities that are insufficiently hedged, potentially leading to earnings volatility or delayed cost recovery,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，剧烈的价格飙升仍然可能 “给对冲不足的公用事业公司施加压力，可能导致收益波动或成本回收延迟，” 他说。</p>
</div><p>'Monster' supply decline</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“巨量” 供应下降</p>
</div><p>Still, what's happening now can greatly impact where natural-gas supplies stand during the summer cooling season and into next winter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，目前发生的事情可能会对夏季制冷季节和下一个冬季的天然气供应状况产生重大影响。</p>
</div><p>There's speculation in the natural-gas market that there will be a &#34;monster&#34; withdrawal in supplies - possibility in two weeks with some market forecasts showing a potential withdrawal in the 350 billion-plus cubic-feet levels, Mizuho's Yawger said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天然气市场上有关于将会出现 “巨量” 供应提取的猜测——可能在两周内，一些市场预测显示可能会出现超过 3500 亿立方英尺的提取，瑞穗的 Yawger 表示。</p>
</div><p>If that came to fruition, &#34;it would be the second-largest storage draw of all time,&#34; he said, adding that there only have been four storage withdrawals of 300 billion cubic feet or more in the history of the Energy Information Administration's storage report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果这一情况实现，“这将是有史以来第二大储存提取，” 他说，并补充说，能源信息管理局的储存报告历史上仅有四次提取超过 3000 亿立方英尺。</p>
</div><p>For the week ended Jan. 16, the EIA reported a fall of 120 billion cubic feet to 3.065 trillion cubic feet in U.S. natural-gas supplies in storage. Supplies still were well above the year-ago level, and the five-year average, the data shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 1 月 16 日的一周，EIA 报告称美国天然气储存量下降了 120 亿立方英尺，降至 3.065 万亿立方英尺。储存量仍然高于去年同期水平和五年平均水平，数据显示。</p>
</div><p>Inventory levels are not concerning at this point, but if cold persists, &#34;inventories can tighten quickly, even from a comfortable starting point,&#34; said Hoffman at the Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前库存水平并不令人担忧，但如果寒冷持续，“库存可能会迅速收紧，即使从一个舒适的起点出发，” Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund 的 Hoffman 表示。</p>
</div><p>What's more of a worry is that extreme weather could lead the next four-weekly inventory draws to total roughly 850 billion cubic feet, said Simon Wong, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. At the same time, &#34;freeze-offs,&#34; which refer to a slowdown in production caused by the cold weather and ice, can reduce output across the Appalachian, Bakken, South Central and Permian regions, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人担忧的是，极端天气可能导致接下来的四周库存减少总计约 850 亿立方英尺，Gabelli Funds 的投资组合经理 Simon Wong 表示。同时，他提到，“冻结停产” 是指由于寒冷天气和冰冻导致的生产减缓，这可能会减少阿巴拉契亚、巴肯、南中部和二叠纪地区的产量。</p>
</div><p>At this rate, natural-gas inventory in March could be around 1.65 trillion cubic feet, which would be a 10% deficit to the five-year average, and inventory at the end of the summer could be around 3.68 trillion cubic feet, or at a 2% deficit to the five-year average, Wong said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以这种速度，3 月份的天然气库存可能会达到约 1.65 万亿立方英尺，这将比五年平均水平低 10%；而夏季结束时的库存可能会达到约 3.68 万亿立方英尺，或比五年平均水平低 2%，Wong 表示。</p>
</div><p>This would result in a market with a &#34;significant deficit&#34; by the end of winter 2026 and into 2027, said Wong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将导致到 2026 年冬季末及 2027 年初市场出现 “显著的赤字”，Wong 表示。</p>
</div><p>Production would then have to grow by at least 4 billion cubic feet per day, he said. If not, there could be further upside in prices for futures contracts covering winter 2026 to 2027, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，届时生产必须至少每天增长 40 亿立方英尺。如果不这样做，2026 至 2027 年冬季的期货合约价格可能会进一步上涨。</p>
</div><p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Myra P. Saefong</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>01-22-26 1612ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>01-22-26 1612ET</p>
</div>

美国天然气价格出现 “历史性” 飙升，美国正准备迎接冬季风暴。这对取暖费用有什么影响