<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1532330384785-f94c84352e91/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1532330384785-f94c84352e91/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>德意志银行在新年即将到来之际，对美国汽车市场的观察显示出赢家与落后者之间日益明显的分化。在一份新的 2026 年展望报告中，Edison Yu 及其团队认为，尽管全球汽车需求仍然不均衡，供应商面临更为严峻的销量背景，但 <strong>美国汽车制造商在新的一年中展现出更清晰的盈利势头</strong>，得益于更好的产品组合、降低的电动车损失，以及重新获得的对其最盈利的内燃机车型的依赖。</p>
<p>从整体来看，尽管行业预测更加乐观，德意志银行对全球生产增长持谨慎态度。德意志银行认为，主要的下行风险与中国有关，预计政府对以旧换新的补贴政策变化将对低价车辆造成最严重的影响。尽管北美和欧洲可能会有所改善，但团队并不认为这些地区能够完全抵消中国可能出现的放缓。因此，供应商在 2026 年的指导可能会相对保守，尤其是在上半年，尽管第四季度的业绩通常应能达到或超过预期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-21%20at%2011.13.23%E2%80%AFAM.jpg/query-aXRvaz1oUTdxTFpOQw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-21%20at%2011.13.23%E2%80%AFAM.jpg/query-aXRvaz1oUTdxTFpOQw"/></p>
<p>相比之下，美国汽车制造商的形势看起来更为有利。德意志银行预计通用汽车和福特将在第四季度交出稳健的业绩，并在 2026 年实现约 10 亿至 20 亿美元的 EBIT 同比增长。关键驱动因素不是更高的单位销量，而是产品组合的变化。随着监管压力的减轻，汽车制造商不再需要限制高利润卡车和 SUV 的生产以满足车队整体排放目标。这种灵活性使他们能够为经销商提供更有利可图的车型，即使整体销量保持平稳或略有下降，也能改善利润率。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-21%20at%2011.13.57%E2%80%AFAM.jpg/query-aXRvaz1RcWZYLTQzRw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-21%20at%2011.13.57%E2%80%AFAM.jpg/query-aXRvaz1RcWZYLTQzRw"/></p>
<p>从激进的电动车扩张中撤回是另一个重要主题。福特和通用汽车都因电动车项目和电池投资而进行了数十亿美元的减记。德意志银行将这些举措视为痛苦但必要的重置，旨在减少未来的损失、折旧和间接费用。通过清理德意志银行所称的 “滞留资产”，这两家公司在 2026 年以更清晰的成本基础进入市场，并且与去年相比的盈利比较也变得更加轻松。</p>
<p>对于以电动车为重点的公司来说，讨论的重点从短期的车辆销量转向技术执行。德意志银行预计特斯拉和 Rivian 的基础销量增长将保持低迷，投资者的关注越来越集中在自动驾驶、软件以及团队所描述的 “物理人工智能” 上。对于特斯拉而言，这意味着在获得额外估值认可之前，必须证明在无人监督的全自动驾驶和机器人出租车部署方面的实际进展。对于 Rivian 来说，2026 年被视为关键一年，R2 的推出需要不仅展示规模，还要在自动驾驶方面提高竞争力。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-21%20at%2011.14.26%E2%80%AFAM.jpg/query-aXRvaz1oaV9kWlViVw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-21%20at%2011.14.26%E2%80%AFAM.jpg/query-aXRvaz1oaV9kWlViVw"/></p>
<p>供应商面临更复杂的局面。中国作为最大的变数，修订后的补贴规则对低价车辆的影响尤为显著，预计将导致乘用车批发销量同比下降。尽管许多全球供应商偏向于高端车辆，这可能有助于改善产品组合，但德意志银行仍预计整体销量将受到净负面影响。博格华纳因其历史上对中国增长的依赖而被特别指出为面临较大风险。</p>
<p>另一个新兴风险是内存芯片。人工智能数据中心需求的激增使得晶圆产能从汽车级 DRAM 中转移，导致价格急剧上涨。德意志银行尚未将 DRAM 驱动的生产影响完全纳入其预测，但将其标记为一个重要的下行风险，尤其是对于没有强大库存缓冲或定价保护的供应商。一些公司，如 Aptiv，似乎受到的影响较小，而其他公司如果车辆生产放缓可能会感受到间接压力。</p>
<p>总体来看，德意志银行的主要信息是，2026 年将更多地关注销售合适的汽车，而不是销售更多的汽车，以实现合适的利润率，并加强成本控制。汽车制造商，尤其是在美国，似乎在应对这种环境方面比供应商更具优势。内燃机车辆再次为利润提供了主要支持，电动车战略正在重置，以优先考虑经济效益而非雄心，自动驾驶仍然是长期的目标，但仍需证明。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>美联储最青睐的通胀指标未显示出任何失控的 “特朗普关税” 成本迹象</p>
<p>20 年期国债拍卖表现出色，接近创纪录的投标覆盖率，创纪录的直接投标</p>
<p>Lululemon 因 “弯腰透视” 问题撤回了紧身裤</p>

福特汽车

通用汽车

福沃德工业

<p>德意志银行对 2026 年美国汽车制造商的展望持乐观态度，强调赢家与落后者之间的明显区别。尽管全球生产增长存在担忧，尤其是在中国，但美国汽车制造商如通用汽车和福特预计将因更好的车型组合和减少电动车损失而实现盈利改善。供应商面临挑战，包括中国补贴规则的修订和内存芯片价格的上涨。总体而言，2026 年的重点将是销售盈利车辆，而不是增加销售量，美国汽车制造商的定位优于供应商</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1532330384785-f94c84352e91/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1532330384785-f94c84352e91?ixid=MXwxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHw%3D&amp;ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Deutsche Bank is looking at U.S. autos heading into the new year with a growing sense of separation between winners and laggards. In a new 2026 outlook note, Edison Yu and his team argue that while global auto demand remains uneven and suppliers face a tougher volume backdrop, <strong>U.S. automakers are entering the year with clearer earnings momentum</strong>, helped by better mix, lower EV losses, and a renewed ability to lean into their most profitable internal-combustion vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德意志银行在新年即将到来之际，对美国汽车市场的观察显示出赢家与落后者之间日益明显的分化。在一份新的 2026 年展望报告中，Edison Yu 及其团队认为，尽管全球汽车需求仍然不均衡，供应商面临更为严峻的销量背景，但 <strong>美国汽车制造商在新的一年中展现出更清晰的盈利势头</strong>，得益于更好的产品组合、降低的电动车损失，以及重新获得的对其最盈利的内燃机车型的依赖。</p>
</div><p>At a high level, the bank is cautious on global production growth despite more optimistic industry forecasts. Deutsche Bank sees downside risks tied mainly to China, where changes to government trade-in subsidies are expected to hit lower-priced vehicles hardest. While North America and Europe may improve modestly, the team does not believe those regions can fully offset a potential slowdown in China. As a result, suppliers are likely to guide conservatively for 2026, particularly in the first half of the year, even though fourth-quarter results should generally meet or exceed expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从整体来看，尽管行业预测更加乐观，德意志银行对全球生产增长持谨慎态度。德意志银行认为，主要的下行风险与中国有关，预计政府对以旧换新的补贴政策变化将对低价车辆造成最严重的影响。尽管北美和欧洲可能会有所改善，但团队并不认为这些地区能够完全抵消中国可能出现的放缓。因此，供应商在 2026 年的指导可能会相对保守，尤其是在上半年，尽管第四季度的业绩通常应能达到或超过预期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot 2026-01-21 at 11.13.23 AM.jpg/query-aXRvaz1oUTdxTFpOQw" alt="" original-src="https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-21%20at%2011.13.23%E2%80%AFAM.jpg?itok=hQ7qLZNC"/></p>
<p>In contrast, the setup for U.S. automakers looks more favorable. Deutsche Bank expects both GM and Ford to deliver solid fourth-quarter results and to grow EBIT by roughly $1–2 billion year over year in 2026. The key driver is not higher unit volumes, but a shift in mix. With regulatory pressure easing, automakers no longer need to restrict production of high-margin trucks and SUVs to meet fleet-wide emissions targets. That flexibility allows them to stock dealerships with more profitable trims, improving margins even if overall sales volumes remain flat or modestly lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，美国汽车制造商的形势看起来更为有利。德意志银行预计通用汽车和福特将在第四季度交出稳健的业绩，并在 2026 年实现约 10 亿至 20 亿美元的 EBIT 同比增长。关键驱动因素不是更高的单位销量，而是产品组合的变化。随着监管压力的减轻，汽车制造商不再需要限制高利润卡车和 SUV 的生产以满足车队整体排放目标。这种灵活性使他们能够为经销商提供更有利可图的车型，即使整体销量保持平稳或略有下降，也能改善利润率。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screenshot 2026-01-21 at 11.13.57 AM.jpg/query-aXRvaz1RcWZYLTQzRw" alt="" original-src="https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-21%20at%2011.13.57%E2%80%AFAM.jpg?itok=QqfX-43G"/></p>
<p>The pullback from aggressive EV expansion is another important theme. Both Ford and GM have taken multi-billion-dollar write-downs tied to EV programs and battery investments. Deutsche Bank views these moves as painful but necessary resets that reduce future losses, depreciation, and overhead. By clearing out what the bank refers to as “stranded assets,” both companies enter 2026 with a cleaner cost base and a much easier earnings comparison year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从激进的电动车扩张中撤回是另一个重要主题。福特和通用汽车都因电动车项目和电池投资而进行了数十亿美元的减记。德意志银行将这些举措视为痛苦但必要的重置，旨在减少未来的损失、折旧和间接费用。通过清理德意志银行所称的 “滞留资产”，这两家公司在 2026 年以更清晰的成本基础进入市场，并且与去年相比的盈利比较也变得更加轻松。</p>
</div><p>For EV-focused companies, the conversation shifts away from near-term vehicle volumes and toward technology execution. Deutsche Bank expects muted underlying volume growth for Tesla and Rivian, with investor attention increasingly centered on autonomy, software, and what the team describes as “physical AI.” For Tesla, that means proving real-world progress in unsupervised full self-driving and robotaxi deployment before earning additional valuation credit. For Rivian, 2026 is framed as a critical year, with the R2 launch needing to demonstrate not just scale, but improving competitiveness in autonomy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于以电动车为重点的公司来说，讨论的重点从短期的车辆销量转向技术执行。德意志银行预计特斯拉和 Rivian 的基础销量增长将保持低迷，投资者的关注越来越集中在自动驾驶、软件以及团队所描述的 “物理人工智能” 上。对于特斯拉而言，这意味着在获得额外估值认可之前，必须证明在无人监督的全自动驾驶和机器人出租车部署方面的实际进展。对于 Rivian 来说，2026 年被视为关键一年，R2 的推出需要不仅展示规模，还要在自动驾驶方面提高竞争力。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screenshot 2026-01-21 at 11.14.26 AM.jpg/query-aXRvaz1oaV9kWlViVw" alt="" original-src="https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screenshot%202026-01-21%20at%2011.14.26%E2%80%AFAM.jpg?itok=hi_dZUbW"/></p>
<p>Suppliers face a more complicated picture. China stands out as the biggest wildcard, as revised subsidy rules disproportionately impact lower-priced vehicles and are expected to drive a year-over-year decline in passenger vehicle wholesales. While many global suppliers skew toward higher-end vehicles, which may help mix, Deutsche Bank still expects a net negative volume impact. BorgWarner is singled out as particularly exposed given its historical reliance on China for growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>供应商面临更复杂的局面。中国作为最大的变数，修订后的补贴规则对低价车辆的影响尤为显著，预计将导致乘用车批发销量同比下降。尽管许多全球供应商偏向于高端车辆，这可能有助于改善产品组合，但德意志银行仍预计整体销量将受到净负面影响。博格华纳因其历史上对中国增长的依赖而被特别指出为面临较大风险。</p>
</div><p>Another emerging risk is memory chips. The surge in AI data center demand has pulled wafer capacity away from automotive-grade DRAM, sending prices sharply higher. Deutsche Bank has not yet fully baked a DRAM-driven production hit into its forecasts, but flags it as a meaningful downside risk, especially for suppliers without strong inventory buffers or pricing protections. Some companies, like Aptiv, appear better insulated, while others may feel indirect pressure if vehicle production slows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个新兴风险是内存芯片。人工智能数据中心需求的激增使得晶圆产能从汽车级 DRAM 中转移，导致价格急剧上涨。德意志银行尚未将 DRAM 驱动的生产影响完全纳入其预测，但将其标记为一个重要的下行风险，尤其是对于没有强大库存缓冲或定价保护的供应商。一些公司，如 Aptiv，似乎受到的影响较小，而其他公司如果车辆生产放缓可能会感受到间接压力。</p>
</div><p>Stepping back, Deutsche Bank’s overarching message is that 2026 is shaping up to be less about selling more cars and more about selling the right ones, at the right margins, with tighter cost control. Automakers, particularly in the U.S., appear better positioned to navigate that environment than suppliers. ICE vehicles are once again doing the heavy lifting for profits, EV strategies are being reset to prioritize economics over ambition, and autonomy remains the long-term prize—but one that still requires proof.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体来看，德意志银行的主要信息是，2026 年将更多地关注销售合适的汽车，而不是销售更多的汽车，以实现合适的利润率，并加强成本控制。汽车制造商，尤其是在美国，似乎在应对这种环境方面比供应商更具优势。内燃机车辆再次为利润提供了主要支持，电动车战略正在重置，以优先考虑经济效益而非雄心，自动驾驶仍然是长期的目标，但仍需证明。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Refuses To Show Any Signs Of Runaway 'Trump Tariff' Costs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储最青睐的通胀指标未显示出任何失控的 “特朗普关税” 成本迹象</p>
</div><p>Stellar 20Y Auction Stops Through With Near Record Bid To Cover, Record Directs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>20 年期国债拍卖表现出色，接近创纪录的投标覆盖率，创纪录的直接投标</p>
</div><p>Lululemon Yanks Leggings Over &#34;See-Through&#34; Concerns When Bending Over</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lululemon 因 “弯腰透视” 问题撤回了紧身裤</p>
</div>

2026 Looks Better For U.S. Automakers Than Suppliers; Deutsche Bank

- 德意志银行对美国汽车市场前景持谨慎态度，认为赢家和落后者逐渐分化。  
- 尽管全球生产增长面临风险，中国的新补贴政策可能影响低价车型。  
- 美國汽車公司如通用和福特预计将在 2026 年盈利增长，利润主要得益于高利润车型的生产灵活性。

德意志银行认为，2026 年美国汽车制造商的前景优于供应商