<p>作者：Christine Idzelis</p>
<p>美国与北约盟国在格林兰问题上的紧张关系让一些投资者感到不安</p>
<p>根据 FactSet 的数据，周四 10 年期国债收益率徘徊在其 200 日均线之上，1 月份上涨约 10 个基点。</p>
<p>本周国债收益率的跳升让投资者警觉，可能会导致美国政府、企业和消费者的借贷成本上升。</p>
<p>这很重要，因为唐纳德·特朗普总统在他第二个任期内正在推动可负担性，以迎接今年秋季的中期选举。</p>
<p>尽管本周早些时候对特朗普威胁对北约欧洲国家征收关税以及他试图购买格林兰的担忧，但对美国经济的信心仍然让 30 万亿美元的美国国债市场保持平静。</p>
<p>这些担忧似乎仅在周二的 10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 中短暂反映，当时其跳升至 200 日移动平均线之上。这可能表明利率上行压力可能在即。然而，根据 FactSet 的数据，周四 10 年期收益率仅略高于该水平，交易约为 4.25%，在周二大幅上升后几乎回落至原位。</p>
<p>美国债券市场的波动性在几个月内一直相对温和。本周有所激增，但在特朗普周三收回对抵制其对格林兰控制权的欧洲国家的新关税威胁后又有所回落。特朗普周三表示不会使用武力占领格林兰，并在社交媒体上表示，已达成一项涉及丹麦领土的 “未来交易框架”，作为美国确保国家安全利益的计划的一部分。</p>
<p>尽管长期利率的水平备受关注，但债券市场的波动速度及其带来的不稳定性可能会让投资者感到紧张。</p>
<p>尽管本周早些时候利率急剧上升，但根据摩根大通资产管理公司全球配置的投资组合经理 Phil Camporeale 的说法，美国债券市场似乎对格林兰和北约的未来并不感到焦虑。</p>
<p>Camporeale 在电话采访中表示：“利率的波动性对我们来说比实际利率本身更重要。” 债券市场的波动性（以 ICE BofAML MOVE 指数衡量）已降至 2021 年以来的最低水平——这表明债券通常能够在投资组合中发挥保护作用，即使在过程中有一些短期波动。</p>
<p>Camporeale 对当前 10 年期国债收益率并不感到担忧，他表示，债券市场的地缘政治担忧似乎是短暂的，而与美国经济相关的基本面是更重要的驱动因素。他说：“在 4% 到 4.5% 之间交易的 10 年期国债没有什么争议。” 他补充道：“在我们对美国经济感到如此舒适和自信的世界里，我们不期望利率会下降。”</p>
<p>根据 FactSet 的数据，MOVE 指数反映了债券市场的相对平静，周三下降超过 10%，至 59.56，交易低于其 50 日和 200 日移动平均线。</p>
<p>FACTSET</p>
<p>尽管投资者正在关注北约在格林兰问题上的紧张局势，Camporeale 表示，在他看来，周二市场的焦虑可能更多是由于对日本国债收益率跳升可能对欧洲和美国主权债务产生溢出效应的担忧。最终，在美国，推动长期利率的因素是通胀预期，他表示。Camporeale 预计到 2026 年，美国核心通胀将达到约 2.8%——仍高于美联储的 2% 目标，但实际国内生产总值将以 2.3% 的速度高于趋势增长。</p>
<p>尽管如此，根据 Mortgage News Daily 的数据，周四 30 年期固定利率抵押贷款的利率为 6.19%，高于本月早些时候短暂跌破 6% 的水平。</p>
<p>投资者获取美国债券敞口的一种流行方式是通过交易所交易基金。Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF BND——一个广泛跟踪美国投资级市场（包括国债）的巨型基金——在周二迎来了自 2024 年 9 月以来最大的单日资金流入，根据 FactSet 的数据。</p>
<p>该基金是美国最大的债券 ETF，管理资产近 1500 亿美元，周二吸引了 8.68 亿美元的资金流入，周三则流入较小。</p>
<p>Camporeale 表示：“今天投资组合中的债券既提供回报机会，也提供保护。” 去年，许多人表示应该持有现金而不是债券，但 “现金的表现完全不佳。”</p>
<p>PineBridge Investments 的全球多资产负责人 Michael Kelly 告诉 MarketWatch，债券市场曾是一个 “绝佳的多样化工具”，但由于全球财政赤字的担忧，现在是一个 “适度积极的多样化工具”。Kelly 表示，10 年期国债的交易水平在他预计的今年范围的低端，约为 4.25% 至 4.75%。</p>
<p>由于债券收益率和价格呈反向移动，他目前更倾向于美国收益率曲线的 “中段”，即三到五年部分，因为如果美联储今年继续降息，这部分应该会受益。</p>
<p>Kelly 表示：“现金的收益率正在下降，可能在今年下半年。” 他补充道：“如果你持有现金，你可能会受到一些影响，但如果你在收益率曲线的中段，你将会受益一些。”</p>
<p>-Christine Idzelis</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>01-22-26 1822ET</p>

<p>美国与北约盟国之间关于格林兰的紧张关系导致债券市场波动，特别是 10 年期国债收益率最近超过了其 200 日均线。尽管对潜在关税和地缘政治问题的担忧依然存在，但投资者对美国经济的信心依然强劲。债券市场的波动性有所下降，MOVE 指数反映出相对平静。分析师指出，通胀预期和经济基本面是长期利率的更重要驱动因素，而非地缘政治紧张局势。Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF 看到显著的资金流入，表明对美国债券的持续兴趣</p>

<p>By Christine Idzelis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Christine Idzelis</p>
</div><p>Tensions between the U.S. and its NATO allies over Greenland put some investors on edge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国与北约盟国在格林兰问题上的紧张关系让一些投资者感到不安</p>
</div><p>The 10-year Treasury rate was hovering just above its 200-day average on Thursday, according to FactSet data. It's up about 10 basis points in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 FactSet 的数据，周四 10 年期国债收益率徘徊在其 200 日均线之上，1 月份上涨约 10 个基点。</p>
</div><p>This week's jump in Treasury yields put investors on alert for ripple effects that could include higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government, companies and consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周国债收益率的跳升让投资者警觉，可能会导致美国政府、企业和消费者的借贷成本上升。</p>
</div><p>That matters because President Donald Trump has been making an affordability push in his second term in the White House before this fall's midterm elections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很重要，因为唐纳德·特朗普总统在他第二个任期内正在推动可负担性，以迎接今年秋季的中期选举。</p>
</div><p>Yet confidence in the U.S. economy is keeping the calm in the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market, despite worries earlier this week over Trump's threats of tariffs on European countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and his effort to buy Greenland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管本周早些时候对特朗普威胁对北约欧洲国家征收关税以及他试图购买格林兰的担忧，但对美国经济的信心仍然让 30 万亿美元的美国国债市场保持平静。</p>
</div><p>Those worries seemed to only briefly be reflected in the closely watched 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, as it jumped above its 200-day moving average on Tuesday. That can signal that upward pressure on rates may be in the cards. Yet the 10-year yield was hovering only slightly above that level Thursday, trading around 4.25%, after reversing most of its big move higher on Tuesday, according to FactSet data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些担忧似乎仅在周二的 10 年期国债收益率 BX:TMUBMUSD10Y 中短暂反映，当时其跳升至 200 日移动平均线之上。这可能表明利率上行压力可能在即。然而，根据 FactSet 的数据，周四 10 年期收益率仅略高于该水平，交易约为 4.25%，在周二大幅上升后几乎回落至原位。</p>
</div><p>Volatility in the U.S. bond market has been pretty tame for months. It spiked this week, but receded after Trump on Wednesday walked back his threat of new tariffs on European countries that were signaling resistance to his efforts to exert control over Greenland. Trump said Wednesday he would not use force to take over Greenland, and in a social-media post he later said a &#34;framework of a future deal&#34; involving the Danish territory had been reached as part of a plan for the U.S. to secure its national-security interests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国债券市场的波动性在几个月内一直相对温和。本周有所激增，但在特朗普周三收回对抵制其对格林兰控制权的欧洲国家的新关税威胁后又有所回落。特朗普周三表示不会使用武力占领格林兰，并在社交媒体上表示，已达成一项涉及丹麦领土的 “未来交易框架”，作为美国确保国家安全利益的计划的一部分。</p>
</div><p>For all the attention paid to the level of long-term rates, it's the speed of moves in the bond market and the resulting volatility that can make investors nervous.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管长期利率的水平备受关注，但债券市场的波动速度及其带来的不稳定性可能会让投资者感到紧张。</p>
</div><p>Despite sharp climbs in rates earlier this week, the U.S. bond market doesn't appear anxious about the future of Greenland and NATO, according to Phil Camporeale, a portfolio manager for J.P. Morgan Asset Management's global allocation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管本周早些时候利率急剧上升，但根据摩根大通资产管理公司全球配置的投资组合经理 Phil Camporeale 的说法，美国债券市场似乎对格林兰和北约的未来并不感到焦虑。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The volatility of rates is more important to us than the actual rate itself,&#34; Camporeale said in a phone interview. Volatility in the bond market, as measured by the ICE BofAML MOVE index, has dropped to levels last seen in 2021 - signaling bonds are generally capable of playing a protective role in portfolios, even if there are some knee-jerk swings along the way, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Camporeale 在电话采访中表示：“利率的波动性对我们来说比实际利率本身更重要。” 债券市场的波动性（以 ICE BofAML MOVE 指数衡量）已降至 2021 年以来的最低水平——这表明债券通常能够在投资组合中发挥保护作用，即使在过程中有一些短期波动。</p>
</div><p>Camporeale isn't sweating the 10-year Treasury rate at its current level, saying that geopolitical fears in the bond market seem to be short-lived and that fundamentals tied to the U.S. economy were more important drivers. &#34;There is nothing controversial about a 10-year note&#34; trading between 4% and 4.5%, he said. &#34;We don't expect rates to fall in a world where we're as comfortable or confident that we've been in the U.S. economy for a long time.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Camporeale 对当前 10 年期国债收益率并不感到担忧，他表示，债券市场的地缘政治担忧似乎是短暂的，而与美国经济相关的基本面是更重要的驱动因素。他说：“在 4% 到 4.5% 之间交易的 10 年期国债没有什么争议。” 他补充道：“在我们对美国经济感到如此舒适和自信的世界里，我们不期望利率会下降。”</p>
</div><p>The MOVE index reflected relative calm in the bond market, dropping more than 10% on Wednesday to 59.56, trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, according to FactSet data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 FactSet 的数据，MOVE 指数反映了债券市场的相对平静，周三下降超过 10%，至 59.56，交易低于其 50 日和 200 日移动平均线。</p>
</div><p>FACTSET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FACTSET</p>
</div><p>Although investors are monitoring NATO tensions over Greenland, Camporeale said that in his view, market anxiety on Tuesday was probably driven more by concern that the jump in yields on Japanese government bonds risked having a spillover effect on European and U.S. sovereign debt. Ultimately, in the U.S., what drives long-term rates is inflation expectations, he said. Camporeale expects that core inflation in the U.S. will end 2026 around 2.8% - still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target - but for real gross domestic product to expand above trend at 2.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管投资者正在关注北约在格林兰问题上的紧张局势，Camporeale 表示，在他看来，周二市场的焦虑可能更多是由于对日本国债收益率跳升可能对欧洲和美国主权债务产生溢出效应的担忧。最终，在美国，推动长期利率的因素是通胀预期，他表示。Camporeale 预计到 2026 年，美国核心通胀将达到约 2.8%——仍高于美联储的 2% 目标，但实际国内生产总值将以 2.3% 的速度高于趋势增长。</p>
</div><p>Still, 30-year fixed rate mortgages were pegged at 6.19% on Thursday, according to Mortgage News Daily, up from a brief dip below 6% earlier this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，根据 Mortgage News Daily 的数据，周四 30 年期固定利率抵押贷款的利率为 6.19%，高于本月早些时候短暂跌破 6% 的水平。</p>
</div><p>One popular way for investors to get exposure to U.S. bonds is via exchange-traded funds. The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF BND - a giant fund that broadly tracks the U.S. investment-grade market including Treasurys - saw its biggest daily inflow on Tuesday since September 2024, according to FactSet data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者获取美国债券敞口的一种流行方式是通过交易所交易基金。Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF BND——一个广泛跟踪美国投资级市场（包括国债）的巨型基金——在周二迎来了自 2024 年 9 月以来最大的单日资金流入，根据 FactSet 的数据。</p>
</div><p>The fund, the largest U.S. bond ETF with nearly $150 billion of assets under management, attracted $868 million on Tuesday followed by a much smaller inflow Wednesday, FactSet data shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该基金是美国最大的债券 ETF，管理资产近 1500 亿美元，周二吸引了 8.68 亿美元的资金流入，周三则流入较小。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Bonds in the portfolio today provide both a return opportunity as well as protection,&#34; said Camporeale. Last year, many people were saying to own cash instead of bonds, but &#34;cash totally underperformed.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Camporeale 表示：“今天投资组合中的债券既提供回报机会，也提供保护。” 去年，许多人表示应该持有现金而不是债券，但 “现金的表现完全不佳。”</p>
</div><p>Michael Kelly, global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments told MarketWatch that the bond market was once a &#34;wonderful diversifier&#34; but now is a &#34;modestly positive diversifier&#34; due to fiscal deficit concerns globally. Kelly said the 10-year Treasury note was trading around the low end of the range he expects to see this year of 4.25% to 4.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PineBridge Investments 的全球多资产负责人 Michael Kelly 告诉 MarketWatch，债券市场曾是一个 “绝佳的多样化工具”，但由于全球财政赤字的担忧，现在是一个 “适度积极的多样化工具”。Kelly 表示，10 年期国债的交易水平在他预计的今年范围的低端，约为 4.25% 至 4.75%。</p>
</div><p>With bond yields and prices moving in opposite directions, he currently favors &#34;the belly,&#34; or the three- to five-year portion, of the yield curve in the U.S. as it should benefit if the Fed continues to cut rates this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于债券收益率和价格呈反向移动，他目前更倾向于美国收益率曲线的 “中段”，即三到五年部分，因为如果美联储今年继续降息，这部分应该会受益。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Cash is going down in yield, probably in the back half of the year,&#34; Kelly said. &#34;You'll be victimized a little bit by that if you're in cash,&#34; he added, but &#34;you'll be benefited a little bit by that if you're in the belly of the curve.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Kelly 表示：“现金的收益率正在下降，可能在今年下半年。” 他补充道：“如果你持有现金，你可能会受到一些影响，但如果你在收益率曲线的中段，你将会受益一些。”</p>
</div><p>-Christine Idzelis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Christine Idzelis</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>01-22-26 1822ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>01-22-26 1822ET</p>
</div>

债券投资者应减少对国债收益率的担忧，而应关注这一动向