<p>Ripple [XRP] 的空头面临越来越大的压力，因为该代币在 $1.95 附近稳定并开始上涨。</p>
<p>随着融资利率保持负值，空头头寸不断增加。因此，最近的反弹迫使空头平仓，并推动短期上涨动能。</p>
<p>在价格整合期间，XRP 融资利率转为负值，因为卖方涌入衍生品市场。</p>
<p>首先，在 2024 年 8 月到 9 月之间，现货动能下降使得永续融资利率跌至零以下，显示出看跌的市场定位。</p>
<p>然后，在 2025 年 4 月的修正期间，类似的模式再次出现，随着不确定性和获利了结加剧，向下对冲的需求增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_N7B8YWIAAYR1N-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_N7B8YWIAAYR1N-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>因此，市场情绪偏向防御性，而多头持有者则选择观望，波动性压缩。然而，历史表明，这种负面情绪往往会耗尽卖方的力量。</p>
<p>随着融资利率正常化，价格迅速反弹，反映出风险偏好。如果负融资持续，投资者应关注回撤和未平仓合约的增加。</p>
<p>相反，融资利率回升至正值则值得进行战略性再积累。</p>
<h2><strong>XRP 衍生品信号风险规避情绪</strong></h2>
<p>根据 CoinGlass 数据，XRP 融资利率与价格在市场周期中表现出密切相关的走势。</p>
<p>从 2021 年到 2023 年中期，XRP 的交易价格在 $0.40-$0.60 之间，而融资利率保持平稳或轻微负值，反映出市场信心不足。</p>
<p>然后，在 2024 年底，价格飙升至 $3.00 以上，融资利率飙升至 +0.10%，显示出积极的多头定位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-22-112402.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-22-112402.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
<p>然而，这种不平衡导致了剧烈的回调。在 2025 年，XRP 的价格回落至 $2.00-$2.50 区间，而融资利率再次跌回零以下。</p>
<p>因此，交易者减少了杠杆并采取了防御性策略。轻微负值的融资利率表明谨慎的市场情绪，历史上与基础构建和潜在趋势重置相关。</p>
<h2><strong>这次有什么不同？</strong></h2>
<p>与过去由炒作或监管拖累所塑造的 XRP 周期不同，2026 年反映出结构上更强的市场环境。</p>
<p>在 2025 年 SEC 对 Ripple 的案件结束后，监管压力消失，恢复了美国机构的准入。</p>
<p>现货 XRP ETF 随后推出，并吸引了 $13-14 亿的稳定资金流入，有效收紧了流动供应。</p>
<p>与此同时，Ripple 的收购、RLUSD 稳定币扩展和新许可证加强了现实世界的结算使用。</p>
<p>这些变化共同验证了更高的价格体系，因为需求现在是基于基础设施、流动性和机构采用，而不是投机过剩。</p>
<h2><strong>清算集群信号短期挤压风险上升</strong></h2>
<p>热图显示，清算集中在 $1.98 到 $2.05 之间的范围内，最密集的区域略高于 $2.00。</p>
<p>这些水平与之前 XRP 在极端负融资期间的结构相似。截止发稿时，价格在 $1.95 附近交易，但向下的清算口袋并不强劲，因为它们低于 $1.90。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XRP-Liquidation-Heatmap24-hour-2026-01-22_12_31_24-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XRP-Liquidation-Heatmap24-hour-2026-01-22_12_31_24-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
<p>这种不平衡很重要。由于价格高于 $1.93-1.94，空头头寸在该价格上方积累。每一步的整合都对市场造成压力。</p>
<p>在过去，当 XRP 处于如此重的积累时，即使是小额现货买入也会导致连锁反应的空头清算。因此，$2.00 到 $2.05 区域逐渐成为挤压触发点，而不是阻力位。</p>
<p>总而言之，时机目前占主导地位，因为挤压风险和卖方疲惫超过了纯粹的方向性信念。</p>
<p>因此，尽管持续整合，短期上涨动能仍然是最有可能的结果。</p>
<p>投资者应关注融资转为正值，以确认持续的趋势强度。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>负融资和集中在 $2.00 以上的清算集群信号短期挤压风险上升，因为 XRP 在 $1.95 附近持稳，向下流动性有限。</em></li>
<li><em>与此同时，监管透明度、ETF 资金流入和 Ripple 生态系统扩展收紧供应，增强了上涨的韧性，倾向于延续而非破裂。</em></li>
</ul>

GXRP

XRPC

XRPZ

XRPI

<p>Ripple 的 XRP 空头面临压力，因为该代币在 1.95 美元附近稳定，负的资金费率迫使空头头寸平仓。历史模式表明，负的资金费率通常会导致卖方疲惫和价格反弹。目前的市场条件，包括监管不确定性的结束和强劲的机构兴趣，支持更高的价格区间。围绕 2.00 美元的清算集群表明空头挤压风险上升，短期内有上涨动能的潜力。投资者应关注资金费率，以确认趋势强度</p>

<p>Ripple [XRP] shorts are facing mounting pressure as the token stabilizes around $1.95 and begins pushing higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ripple [XRP] 的空头面临越来越大的压力，因为该代币在 $1.95 附近稳定并开始上涨。</p>
</div><p>Short positions have built up as funding rates stay negative. As a result, the recent bounce is forcing cover and fueling near-term upside momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着融资利率保持负值，空头头寸不断增加。因此，最近的反弹迫使空头平仓，并推动短期上涨动能。</p>
</div><p>XRP Funding Rates turned negative as sellers crowded derivatives markets during price consolidation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在价格整合期间，XRP 融资利率转为负值，因为卖方涌入衍生品市场。</p>
</div><p>First, between August and September 2024, declining Spot momentum pushed perpetual funding below zero, signaling bearish positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，在 2024 年 8 月到 9 月之间，现货动能下降使得永续融资利率跌至零以下，显示出看跌的市场定位。</p>
</div><p>Then, a similar pattern reappeared during the April 2025 correction, as uncertainty and profit-taking intensified downside hedging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后，在 2025 年 4 月的修正期间，类似的模式再次出现，随着不确定性和获利了结加剧，向下对冲的需求增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_N7B8YWIAAYR1N-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_N7B8YWIAAYR1N-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>Consequently, sentiment skewed defensive, while long holders stepped aside and volatility compressed. However, history shows this negativity often exhausts sellers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市场情绪偏向防御性，而多头持有者则选择观望，波动性压缩。然而，历史表明，这种负面情绪往往会耗尽卖方的力量。</p>
</div><p>As funding normalized, the price rebounded sharply, reflecting risk appetite. If negative funding persists, investors should watch for drawdowns and rising open interest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着融资利率正常化，价格迅速反弹，反映出风险偏好。如果负融资持续，投资者应关注回撤和未平仓合约的增加。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, a flip back to positive rates warrants strategic reaccumulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，融资利率回升至正值则值得进行战略性再积累。</p>
</div><h2><strong>XRP derivatives signal risk-off sentiment</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>XRP 衍生品信号风险规避情绪</strong></h2>
</div><p>According to CoinGlass data, XRP Funding Rates and price have exhibited closely correlated movement across market cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CoinGlass 数据，XRP 融资利率与价格在市场周期中表现出密切相关的走势。</p>
</div><p>From 2021 to mid-2023, XRP traded near $0.40-$0.60 while funding stayed flat to mildly negative, reflecting low conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从 2021 年到 2023 年中期，XRP 的交易价格在 $0.40-$0.60 之间，而融资利率保持平稳或轻微负值，反映出市场信心不足。</p>
</div><p>Then, in late 2024, the price surged above $3.00 as funding spiked toward +0.10%, signaling aggressive long positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后，在 2024 年底，价格飙升至 $3.00 以上，融资利率飙升至 +0.10%，显示出积极的多头定位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-22-112402.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-22-112402.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><p>However, that imbalance preceded sharp pullbacks. During 2025, XRP corrected toward the $2.00-$2.50 range while funding slipped back below zero.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这种不平衡导致了剧烈的回调。在 2025 年，XRP 的价格回落至 $2.00-$2.50 区间，而融资利率再次跌回零以下。</p>
</div><p>As a result, traders reduced leverage and shifted defensively. Mildly negative funding suggests cautious sentiment, historically associated with base building and potential trend resets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，交易者减少了杠杆并采取了防御性策略。轻微负值的融资利率表明谨慎的市场情绪，历史上与基础构建和潜在趋势重置相关。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What’s different this time?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>这次有什么不同？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Unlike past XRP cycles shaped by hype or regulatory drag, 2026 reflects a structurally stronger setup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与过去由炒作或监管拖累所塑造的 XRP 周期不同，2026 年反映出结构上更强的市场环境。</p>
</div><p>The regulatory overhang disappeared after the SEC case against Ripple closed in 2025, restoring the U.S. institutional access.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年 SEC 对 Ripple 的案件结束后，监管压力消失，恢复了美国机构的准入。</p>
</div><p>Spot XRP ETFs launched soon after and absorbed $1.3–1.4 billion in steady inflows, effectively tightening the liquid supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货 XRP ETF 随后推出，并吸引了 $13-14 亿的稳定资金流入，有效收紧了流动供应。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Ripple’s acquisitions, RLUSD stablecoin expansion, and new licenses reinforced real-world settlement use.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，Ripple 的收购、RLUSD 稳定币扩展和新许可证加强了现实世界的结算使用。</p>
</div><p>Together, these shifts validate a higher price regime, as demand is now anchored in infrastructure, liquidity, and institutional adoption rather than speculative excess.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些变化共同验证了更高的价格体系，因为需求现在是基于基础设施、流动性和机构采用，而不是投机过剩。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Liquidation clusters signal rising short squeeze risk</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>清算集群信号短期挤压风险上升</strong></h2>
</div><p>The Heatmap showed both clumps of liquidation that are concentrated around the range between $1.98 and $2.05, with the most populous at slightly above $2.00.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>热图显示，清算集中在 $1.98 到 $2.05 之间的范围内，最密集的区域略高于 $2.00。</p>
</div><p>These levels were similar to the previous XRP structures in periods of extreme negative funding. The price was trading around $1.95 at press time, but downside liquidation pockets were not very strong, as they were below $1.90.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些水平与之前 XRP 在极端负融资期间的结构相似。截止发稿时，价格在 $1.95 附近交易，但向下的清算口袋并不强劲，因为它们低于 $1.90。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XRP-Liquidation-Heatmap24-hour-2026-01-22_12_31_24-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/XRP-Liquidation-Heatmap24-hour-2026-01-22_12_31_24-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><p>This imbalance matters. Short exposure at a price is accumulating overhead because the price is greater than $1.93-1.94. Every step of consolidation puts a strain on the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种不平衡很重要。由于价格高于 $1.93-1.94，空头头寸在该价格上方积累。每一步的整合都对市场造成压力。</p>
</div><p>In the past, when XRP was under heavy accumulations such as this, even small spot bids would cause cascading short liquidations. Consequently, the $2.00 to $2.05 zone is gradually becoming a squeeze trigger instead of resistance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去，当 XRP 处于如此重的积累时，即使是小额现货买入也会导致连锁反应的空头清算。因此，$2.00 到 $2.05 区域逐渐成为挤压触发点，而不是阻力位。</p>
</div><p>To sum up, timing currently dominates, as squeeze risk and seller exhaustion outweigh pure directional conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总而言之，时机目前占主导地位，因为挤压风险和卖方疲惫超过了纯粹的方向性信念。</p>
</div><p>As a result, near-term upside momentum remains the highest-probability outcome despite ongoing consolidation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管持续整合，短期上涨动能仍然是最有可能的结果。</p>
</div><p>Investors should watch out for the funding flip to positive as confirmation of sustained trend strength.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应关注融资转为正值，以确认持续的趋势强度。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Negative funding and concentrated liquidation clusters above $2.00 signal rising short squeeze risk as XRP holds near $1.95 with limited downside liquidity.</em></li>
<li><em>At the same time, regulatory clarity, ETF inflows, and Ripple’s ecosystem expansion tighten supply, reinforcing upside resilience and favoring continuation over breakdown.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>负融资和集中在 $2.00 以上的清算集群信号短期挤压风险上升，因为 XRP 在 $1.95 附近持稳，向下流动性有限。</em></li>
<li><em>与此同时，监管透明度、ETF 资金流入和 Ripple 生态系统扩展收紧供应，增强了上涨的韧性，倾向于延续而非破裂。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

XRP 空头感受到压力——为什么这正在成为一个逼空区域