<div id="readability-page-1" class="page"><div>India, UAE, and Saudi Arabia Set to Lead Global Aviation Growth – Avolon 2026 Outlook Paper <ul> <li> Growth opportunities for lessors as new aircraft deliveries expected to rise 20% to US$120 billion in 2026 </li> <li> Order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing now extend to over 11 years, increasing the strategic value of lessor-held slots </li> <li> Global airline profits to reach US$41 billion in 2026, helped by benign fuel price levels and continuing economic growth </li> </ul> The continuation of low fuel prices and economic growth are expected to help global airline industry profits to reach US$41 billion in 2026, according to a paper published today by Avolon. This year is set to mark the fourth consecutive profitable year for the sector, helping airlines to recover over 80% of the US$182 billion lost during the pandemic. India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are positioned to lead aviation’s next growth cycle, with the three countries’ combined order backlog at over 3,000 aircraft. This represents more than double the current in-service fleet, with 900 aircraft to be delivered over the next 3 years. Demand fundamentals remain positive but airlines risk missing out on growth opportunities due to the persistent structural undersupply of aircraft. Order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing now extend to over 11 years. The ongoing supply shortage will support higher lease rates and strong residual values, while increasing the strategic value of lessor-held slots for under-ordered airlines. Avolon's 2026 Outlook: Up Next paper, available here, reviews the key trends in the aviation sector in 2026 and beyond, including: <ul> <li> Aviation Growth:Regional growth will be varied. India, UAE, and Saudi Arabia are emerging as the next growth regions for the aviation sector. European growth is being driven by low-cost carriers as the majors focus on consolidation. U.S. network carriers are transitioning into lifestyle brands that run highly profitable loyalty and credit card businesses, while low-cost carriers continue to struggle as they work to realign their networks and products. Asia-Pacific is limited by fleet constraints, with China having a near-term requirement for 1,000 new aircraft. </li> <li> Airlines:Lower fuel prices were a key driver for airline performance in 2025, with US$8 billion in reduced fuel expenses accounting for a fifth of the airline industry's net profits. This trend is expected to continue in 2026, helping airlines further repair their balance sheets despite operational challenges and increasing labour and maintenance costs. </li> <li> Manufacturers: Despite the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, large investment decisions are being made with orders for over 2,000 new aircraft placed with Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer in 2025. The market is shifting toward larger aircraft variants, with the A321neo outselling the A320neo aircraft three-to-one over the past three years. The A330neo is benefiting as the only new passenger widebody available before 2032. Engine manufacturers are increasing shop visit and spare part pricing at rates well above general inflation as they manage higher input costs and deliver rising shareholder returns. The market value of two full-life engines now represents c.80% of a new aircraft’s value. </li> <li> Lessors: A structural re-rating of the aircraft leasing business model has occurred with eleven lessors now achieving investment grade ratings, positioning them to outperform in a market of scarce aircraft. Around US$120 billion of new aircraft are expected to deliver in 2026, up 20% on last year. With lessors expected to provide around half of the global fleet’s overall financing requirements, their importance in supporting the transition to lower emissions new-technology aircraft has never been stronger. </li> <li> Risks: The rapid growth of AI is intensifying competition with aviation for capital and talent. Geopolitical risk will continue to be in focus in 2026, and whilst tariff fears for aviation subsided in 2025, they remain a sensitive issue. Economic growth proved resilient in 2025, 80 of the largest economies grew by more than 1% and 90 are expected to do so in 2026 with none expected to shrink. </li> </ul> Jim Morrison, Chief Risk Officer of Avolon commented: “Global connectivity and economic growth continue to be supported by the aviation sector, underpinned by strong demand and lower fuel costs. India, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia are emerging as the next engines of growth with order backlogs that are double their current in-service fleet. With an industry requirement to finance around US$120 billion of new aircraft in 2026, lessors will continue to play a vital role as a driver of the transition of the global fleet to lower emissions new-technology aircraft.” “Airline financial performance continues to strengthen, with the industry expected to record its fourth consecutive year of profitability. Airlines’ ability to capture sector tailwinds will be impacted by a shortage of new aircraft deliveries and the long order backlogs at Airbus and Boeing. Well-capitalised lessors with orderbooks of new-technology aircraft are strongly positioned to outperform in the current market.” The paper – co-authored by Avolon’s Chief Risk Officer, Jim Morrison, and Senior Vice President, Portfolio Strategy, Ross McKeand – makes 7 forecasts: Fearless Forecasts 2026 <ol> <li> International markets globally will drive all air travel growth International markets fuelled 85% of aviation’s capacity growth in 2025 and are set to drive an overweight share again in 2026, underlining the need for more widebody aircraft in a capacity constrained world. </li> <li> U.S. based LCCs make money Low-cost carriers in the U.S. will recover by adjusting fleet, network and product to align with consumer trends despite recent challenges. Spirit's Chapter 22 process will reduce capacity and pricing pressures, while fewer GTF engine groundings will enable higher asset utilisation. </li> <li> 150 GTF-powered aircraft return-to-service Pratt &amp; Whitney has largely resolved the powdered metal production quality escape, at the same time as dramatically increasing engine shop visit capacity and spare availability. While the groundings are likely to persist through to 2028, over 150 GTF-powered aircraft will return to service in 2026. </li> <li> Airbus and Boeing &gt;150-seat jets are sold out to 2035 Airbus, Boeing and Embraer are selling nearly two years of production each year. While Embraer and Airbus have some production capacity in the sub-150-seat segments remaining in this decade, in 2026 the largest aircraft families will be sold out until 2035. </li> <li> A330neo market lease rates increase by more than 15% The versatile A330neo has attracted more than 30 operators spanning low-cost carriers to premium network airlines. As the only new passenger widebody available before 2032, strong demand will drive market lease rates higher. </li> <li> An aviation ABS E-note is successfully issued Despite no aviation ABS equity notes being issued since February 2020, over US$10 billion of aviation ABS debt notes issued in 2025 demonstrated investor appetite. E-notes will return in 2026 as the market continues recovering. </li> <li> Preparations are made for a new commercial aircraft program launch in 2027 Embraer has studied various program concepts and COMAC will eventually progress its widebody plans. Boeing’s 737-10 MAX is facing a market share gap to the Airbus A321neo that will demand a response. 2026 feels too soon to see a new program launch, but 2027 may just be the year. </li> </ol> About Avolon Avolon is a leading global aviation finance company connecting capital with customers to drive the transformation of aviation and the economic and social benefits of global travel. We pride ourselves on our deep customer relationships, our collaborative team approach, and our fast execution. We invest with a long-term perspective, diversifying risk and managing capital efficiently to maintain our strong balance sheet. Working with 139 airlines in 61 countries, Avolon has an owned, managed, and committed fleet of 1,132 aircraft, as of 31 December 2025. www.avolon.aero Disclaimer The views and forecasts set forth herein and in the 2026 Outlook are those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of any other person or Avolon. This document, the 2026 Outlook Paper, and any other materials contained in or accompanying this document (collectively, the “Materials”) are provided for general information purposes only. The Materials are provided without any guarantee, condition, representation or warranty (express or implied) as to their adequacy, correctness or completeness. Any opinions, estimates, commentary or conclusions contained in the Materials represent the judgement of the authors as at the date of the Materials and are subject to change without notice. The Materials are not intended to amount to advice on which any reliance should be placed and Avolon disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the Materials. <img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT/query-ZGlzdHJvPW54JmlkPWJ3bmV3cyZsYW5nPWVuJnNpZD1tc3RyMyZzdHk9MjAyNjAxMjI2MjQ1NTNyMQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cts.businesswire.com/ct/CT/query-ZGlzdHJvPW54JmlkPWJ3bmV3cyZsYW5nPWVuJnNpZD1tc3RyMyZzdHk9MjAyNjAxMjI2MjQ1NTNyMQ"/> Darragh Crowley Avolon Investor Relations ir@avolon.aero T: +353 1 231 5800 Douglas Keatinge Avolon Head of Communications dkeatinge@avolon.aero T: +353 86 037 4163 View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260122624553/en/</div></div>

印度、阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯将引领全球航空业的增长，预计到 2026 年飞机交付量将增长 20%，达到 1200 亿美元。全球航空公司利润预计将达到 410 亿美元，得益于低燃油价格和经济增长。空客和波音的订单积压超过 11 年，增加了租赁公司持有的航班时段的战略价值。Avolon 的 2026 年展望强调了租赁公司在融资新飞机和支持向低排放技术过渡中的重要性，同时地缘政治风险和资本竞争仍然是关注点

India, UAE, and Saudi Arabia Set to Lead Global Aviation Growth – Avolon 2026 Outlook Paper

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印度、阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯将引领全球航空业增长——Avolon 2026 年展望报告