<p>作者：Youssef El Maddarsi 来源：cointelegraph 翻译：Shan Ouba，金色财经</p>
<p>比特币的 20 年量子安全窗口已经崩溃。25% 的比特币供应存储在高风险地址中，迫切需要迁移。</p>
<p>一些比特币支持者认为，网络在不久的将来不会面临实质性的量子威胁——他们引用了国家标准与技术研究院（NIST）批准的后量子标准，声称比特币可以在能够破解密码学的量子计算机出现之前进行升级。这种信心基于一个高风险的假设：量子威胁只有在量子计算机能够实时破解密钥时才会真正到来。亚当·巴克曾建议比特币至少有 20 到 40 年的准备时间，但实际上，量子威胁已经存在。</p>
<p>比特币不能依赖几十年的漫长升级路径。</p>
<p>一些读者可能会强烈反对，坚称量子技术发展的时间表仍然高度不确定，没有必要急于行动；过度的警告甚至可能引发不必要的恐慌。然而，事实并不支持我们的自满。IBM 最近在实用量子计算方面取得了重大突破。其下一代芯片和更快的错误纠正技术预计将使公司在 2026 年前实现量子霸权，并在 2029 年前推出早期容错量子系统。这场量子技术竞赛正在加剧。在 2025 年 Devconnect 大会上，维塔利克·布特林表示，量子计算机可能比预期更早地破解椭圆曲线密码学，甚至可能在 2028 年美国总统选举之前，并倡导以太坊在几年内过渡到抗量子密码学。这与一些比特币爱好者所宣传的 “安全叙事” 形成了鲜明对比，表明即使是以太坊的创始人也认为量子威胁的机会窗口远比人们想象的要紧迫。I. 量子风险已经对市场产生影响 最近的一份德勤报告显示，约有 400 万个比特币（占总可用供应的 25%）存储在其公钥易受量子攻击的地址中。研究人员早已警告，足够先进的量子计算机可以利用 Scholl 算法从公钥推导出私钥，使攻击者能够瞬间清空传统钱包。这并不是比特币特有的问题。以太坊和大多数当前区块链依赖于椭圆曲线密码学，而这一基础将被量子技术根本性地颠覆。维塔利克·布特林已经为量子计算机可能破解以太坊账户的情景制定了应急计划。</p>
<h2>第二，&#34;稍后升级&#34;的论点在现实中并不成立</h2>
<p>认为&#34;比特币有几十年时间准备应对量子威胁&#34;的观点核心在于相信 NIST 的后量子密码学（PQC）标准可以在实质性攻击发生之前直接采用。然而，升级比特币并不是简单的补丁修复，而是对协议签名机制的根本重建。肯特大学的研究人员指出，将比特币升级到抗量子密码系统可能需要长达 75 天的停机时间；如果网络在迁移过程中需要降低计算能力以减少攻击面，停机时间甚至可能超过 300 天。对于一个价值数万亿美元的资产类别而言，长期的全球停机远非行业可接受的 “及时修复” 解决方案。</p>
<p>即使比特币在技术层面上能够实现平稳迁移，政治现实也将构成另一个障碍。比特币的治理文化一直抵制变革，正如相对温和的 Taproot 升级经历了数年的辩论和协调所证明的那样。</p>
<p>强制将整个网络迁移到全新的加密基础上的高风险操作，必然会引发意识形态冲突、潜在的链分叉和长期的不确定性。认为这种激进的重构可以在几十年后轻松实施的想法，忽视了比特币在更简单的升级中所面临的对抗性博弈。同时，量子技术的发展远远超出了大多数人的预期。欧盟委员会及其成员国最近发布了一份协调路线图，以将欧盟的数字基础设施过渡到后量子加密，解决量子计算机对现有加密系统构成的威胁。该计划设定了统一的时间表：所有成员国必须在 2026 年前启动国家后量子加密战略和初步迁移工作；关键基础设施和其他高风险领域必须在 2030 年前采用抗量子加密；到 2035 年，所有可升级系统的后量子加密过渡必须完成。 III. 延迟过渡对市场的影响可能是灾难性的 对于加密行业而言，这一威胁的紧迫性也体现在不当过渡可能引发的市场冲击上。如果攻击者利用量子硬件破解沉睡比特币钱包的私钥，他们可能会突然转移数百万个长期沉睡的比特币，将其抛售到交易所，导致价格崩溃。同样，如果恶意的量子矿工能够持续解决比特币的工作量证明问题，这将破坏挖矿的去中心化特性，使这个全球行业变成一个由量子技术持有者主导的寡头垄断。这些风险将在所谓的 “20-40 年安全窗口” 到来之前，彻底重塑市场格局。后量子密码学是不可避免的，但必须在攻击者获得必要硬件之前部署，而不是事后补救。NIST 标准提供了一条路线图，但并没有绝对的保证。过渡将是漫长的、有争议的和具有破坏性的。试图将其推迟数十年可能会使比特币和整个加密生态系统面临本世纪最严峻的安全挑战。在过去的 15 年里，加密行业一直在捍卫去中心化、无信任和用户主权。现在，量子计算带来了新的挑战：行业会主动采取行动，还是等到危机爆发后被动反应？错误判断的代价远远超过事前准备的成本。许多人可能认为比特币仍有几十年的缓冲时间，但证据指向完全不同的结论：量子威胁的时钟已经开始滴答作响，市场正在悄然调整。唯一的问题是行业能否在时间耗尽之前采取行动。</p>

<p>比特币的 20 年量子安全窗口已经崩溃，25% 的供应量处于高风险地址中，需要紧急迁移。尽管一些人认为在量子威胁出现之前还有时间进行升级，但量子计算的进展，例如 IBM 的突破，表明情况并非如此。维塔利克·布特林警告称，量子计算机可能会比预期更早地破坏密码学。将比特币升级到抗量子系统是复杂且政治上具有挑战性的，可能会导致长时间的停机。延迟过渡可能会导致灾难性的市场影响，包括由于攻击者利用量子技术突然抛售比特币而引发的价格崩溃</p>

<p>Author: Youssef El Maddarsi Source: cointelegraph Translation: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Youssef El Maddarsi 来源：cointelegraph 翻译：Shan Ouba，金色财经</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin's 20-year quantum security window has collapsed. 25% of the Bitcoin supply is stored in high-risk addresses and urgently needs to be migrated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的 20 年量子安全窗口已经崩溃。25% 的比特币供应存储在高风险地址中，迫切需要迁移。</p>
</div><p>Some Bitcoin supporters believe that the network will not face a substantial quantum threat in the near future—they cite the post-quantum standard approved by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), claiming that Bitcoin can be upgraded before the advent of quantum computers capable of breaking cryptography. This confidence is based on a high-risk assumption: the quantum threat will only truly arrive when quantum computers can crack keys in real time. Adam Back once suggested that Bitcoin had at least 20 to 40 years to prepare, but in fact, the quantum threat already exists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些比特币支持者认为，网络在不久的将来不会面临实质性的量子威胁——他们引用了国家标准与技术研究院（NIST）批准的后量子标准，声称比特币可以在能够破解密码学的量子计算机出现之前进行升级。这种信心基于一个高风险的假设：量子威胁只有在量子计算机能够实时破解密钥时才会真正到来。亚当·巴克曾建议比特币至少有 20 到 40 年的准备时间，但实际上，量子威胁已经存在。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin cannot rely on a long upgrade path of decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币不能依赖几十年的漫长升级路径。</p>
</div><p>Some readers may strongly object, insisting that the timeline for quantum technology development remains highly uncertain, and there's no need to rush into action; excessive warnings could even trigger unnecessary panic. However, the facts do not warrant our complacency. IBM recently achieved a major breakthrough in practical quantum computing. Its next-generation chips and faster error correction technology are expected to enable the company to achieve quantum supremacy by 2026 and launch an early fault-tolerant quantum system by 2029. This quantum technology race is intensifying. At the 2025 Devconnect conference, Vitalik Buterin stated that quantum computers may break elliptic curve cryptography sooner than expected, possibly even before the 2028 US presidential election, and advocated that Ethereum should transition to quantum-resistant cryptography within a few years. This contrasts sharply with the &#34;security narrative&#34; promoted by some Bitcoin enthusiasts, indicating that even the founder of Ethereum believes the window of opportunity for quantum threats is far more pressing than people imagine. I. Quantum Risks Already Have Market Impact A recent Deloitte report shows that approximately 4 million Bitcoins (25% of the total available supply) are stored in addresses whose public keys are vulnerable to quantum attacks. Researchers have long warned that sufficiently advanced quantum computers can use the Scholl algorithm to deduce private keys from public keys, allowing attackers to instantly empty traditional wallets. This is not a problem unique to Bitcoin. Ethereum and most current blockchains rely on elliptic curve cryptography, a foundation that quantum technology will fundamentally disrupt. Vitalik Buterin has developed contingency plans for scenarios where quantum computers could crack Ethereum accounts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些读者可能会强烈反对，坚称量子技术发展的时间表仍然高度不确定，没有必要急于行动；过度的警告甚至可能引发不必要的恐慌。然而，事实并不支持我们的自满。IBM 最近在实用量子计算方面取得了重大突破。其下一代芯片和更快的错误纠正技术预计将使公司在 2026 年前实现量子霸权，并在 2029 年前推出早期容错量子系统。这场量子技术竞赛正在加剧。在 2025 年 Devconnect 大会上，维塔利克·布特林表示，量子计算机可能比预期更早地破解椭圆曲线密码学，甚至可能在 2028 年美国总统选举之前，并倡导以太坊在几年内过渡到抗量子密码学。这与一些比特币爱好者所宣传的 “安全叙事” 形成了鲜明对比，表明即使是以太坊的创始人也认为量子威胁的机会窗口远比人们想象的要紧迫。I. 量子风险已经对市场产生影响 最近的一份德勤报告显示，约有 400 万个比特币（占总可用供应的 25%）存储在其公钥易受量子攻击的地址中。研究人员早已警告，足够先进的量子计算机可以利用 Scholl 算法从公钥推导出私钥，使攻击者能够瞬间清空传统钱包。这并不是比特币特有的问题。以太坊和大多数当前区块链依赖于椭圆曲线密码学，而这一基础将被量子技术根本性地颠覆。维塔利克·布特林已经为量子计算机可能破解以太坊账户的情景制定了应急计划。</p>
</div><h2>Second, the argument of &#34;upgrading later&#34; is not valid in reality</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>第二，&#34;稍后升级&#34;的论点在现实中并不成立</h2>
</div><p>The core of the view that &#34;Bitcoin has decades to prepare for quantum threats&#34; is the belief that NIST's post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standard can be directly adopted before a substantial attack occurs. However, upgrading Bitcoin is not a simple patch fix, but a fundamental reconstruction of the protocol signature mechanism. Researchers at the University of Kent pointed out that upgrading Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant cryptographic system could require up to 75 days of downtime; if the network needs to reduce its computing power during the migration to reduce the attack surface, the downtime could even exceed 300 days. For an asset class worth trillions of dollars, a long-term global downtime is far from an acceptable &#34;timely fix&#34; solution for the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>认为&#34;比特币有几十年时间准备应对量子威胁&#34;的观点核心在于相信 NIST 的后量子密码学（PQC）标准可以在实质性攻击发生之前直接采用。然而，升级比特币并不是简单的补丁修复，而是对协议签名机制的根本重建。肯特大学的研究人员指出，将比特币升级到抗量子密码系统可能需要长达 75 天的停机时间；如果网络在迁移过程中需要降低计算能力以减少攻击面，停机时间甚至可能超过 300 天。对于一个价值数万亿美元的资产类别而言，长期的全球停机远非行业可接受的 “及时修复” 解决方案。</p>
</div><p>Even if Bitcoin can achieve a smooth migration at the technical level, political realities will pose another obstacle. Bitcoin's governance culture has always resisted change, as evidenced by the fact that even the relatively mild Taproot upgrade underwent several years of debate and coordination.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使比特币在技术层面上能够实现平稳迁移，政治现实也将构成另一个障碍。比特币的治理文化一直抵制变革，正如相对温和的 Taproot 升级经历了数年的辩论和协调所证明的那样。</p>
</div><p>The high-risk operation of forcibly migrating the entire network to a completely new encryption foundation will inevitably trigger ideological conflicts, potential chain forks, and long-term uncertainty. The idea that such a radical reconstruction can be easily implemented decades later ignores the adversarial game that Bitcoin faces in simpler upgrades. Meanwhile, the development of quantum technology is far exceeding most people's expectations. The European Commission and member states recently released a coordinated roadmap to transition the EU's digital infrastructure to post-quantum encryption, addressing the threat posed by quantum computers to existing encryption systems. The plan sets a unified timetable: all member states must launch national post-quantum encryption strategies and initial migration work by 2026; critical infrastructure and other high-risk areas must adopt quantum-resistant encryption by 2030; and by 2035, the post-quantum encryption transition of all upgradable systems must be completed. III. The Market Impact of Delayed Transition Could Be Catastrophic For the encryption industry, the urgency of this threat is also reflected in the potential market shock caused by an improper transition. If attackers use quantum hardware to crack private keys from dormant Bitcoin wallets, they could suddenly transfer millions of long-dormant Bitcoins, dumping them on exchanges and causing a price crash. Similarly, if malicious quantum miners can continuously solve Bitcoin's proof-of-work problem, it will undermine the decentralized nature of mining, turning this global industry into an oligopoly dominated by quantum technology holders. These risks will completely reshape the market landscape before the so-called &#34;20-40 year security window&#34; arrives. Post-quantum cryptography is inevitable, but it must be deployed before attackers acquire the necessary hardware, not as a post-hoc remedy. The NIST standard provides a roadmap, but not absolute guarantees. The transition will be lengthy, controversial, and disruptive. Attempting to postpone it for decades could expose Bitcoin and the entire crypto ecosystem to the most severe security challenges of this century. For the past 15 years, the crypto industry has been defending decentralization, trustlessness, and user sovereignty. Now, quantum computing presents a new challenge: will the industry act proactively, or wait for a crisis to erupt before reacting passively? The cost of misjudging far outweighs the cost of prior preparation. Many might believe Bitcoin still has decades of buffer time, but evidence points to a completely different conclusion: the clock of the quantum threat is already ticking, and the market is quietly adjusting. The only question is whether the industry can act before time runs out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>强制将整个网络迁移到全新的加密基础上的高风险操作，必然会引发意识形态冲突、潜在的链分叉和长期的不确定性。认为这种激进的重构可以在几十年后轻松实施的想法，忽视了比特币在更简单的升级中所面临的对抗性博弈。同时，量子技术的发展远远超出了大多数人的预期。欧盟委员会及其成员国最近发布了一份协调路线图，以将欧盟的数字基础设施过渡到后量子加密，解决量子计算机对现有加密系统构成的威胁。该计划设定了统一的时间表：所有成员国必须在 2026 年前启动国家后量子加密战略和初步迁移工作；关键基础设施和其他高风险领域必须在 2030 年前采用抗量子加密；到 2035 年，所有可升级系统的后量子加密过渡必须完成。 III. 延迟过渡对市场的影响可能是灾难性的 对于加密行业而言，这一威胁的紧迫性也体现在不当过渡可能引发的市场冲击上。如果攻击者利用量子硬件破解沉睡比特币钱包的私钥，他们可能会突然转移数百万个长期沉睡的比特币，将其抛售到交易所，导致价格崩溃。同样，如果恶意的量子矿工能够持续解决比特币的工作量证明问题，这将破坏挖矿的去中心化特性，使这个全球行业变成一个由量子技术持有者主导的寡头垄断。这些风险将在所谓的 “20-40 年安全窗口” 到来之前，彻底重塑市场格局。后量子密码学是不可避免的，但必须在攻击者获得必要硬件之前部署，而不是事后补救。NIST 标准提供了一条路线图，但并没有绝对的保证。过渡将是漫长的、有争议的和具有破坏性的。试图将其推迟数十年可能会使比特币和整个加密生态系统面临本世纪最严峻的安全挑战。在过去的 15 年里，加密行业一直在捍卫去中心化、无信任和用户主权。现在，量子计算带来了新的挑战：行业会主动采取行动，还是等到危机爆发后被动反应？错误判断的代价远远超过事前准备的成本。许多人可能认为比特币仍有几十年的缓冲时间，但证据指向完全不同的结论：量子威胁的时钟已经开始滴答作响，市场正在悄然调整。唯一的问题是行业能否在时间耗尽之前采取行动。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin can't wait 20 years; the quantum threat is already looming.

- 比特币的量子安全窗口已崩溃，25% 的供应存储在高风险地址。  
- IBM 在量子计算方面取得重大突破，预计将于 2026 年实现量子霸权。  
- 若比特币无及时应对，将面临市场崩溃和安全挑战。

比特币无法等待 20 年，因为量子威胁已经迫在眉睫