<p>TradingKey - 在周五的亚洲交易时段，银价短暂突破 99 美元大关，连续第二天创下历史新高，距离 100 美元的心理关口仅一步之遥。尽管特朗普对格林兰的立场发生了 180 度的转变，承诺排除使用军事力量的可能性——暂时消除了地缘政治冲突的威胁——但作为避险资产的银价上涨势头依然不减。</p>
<p>在 2026 年刚过去 23 天，银价已经上涨了 38%，而 2025 年全年则上涨了 146%。伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）发布的《2026 年预测调查》显示，专业分析师和交易员预计，2026 年黄金的平均日价格将比 2025 年上涨近五成，而银的平均年价格预计将翻倍。</p>
<p>然而，BCA Research 的首席策略师 Roukaya Ibrahim 在她最新的贵金属报告中表示，尽管她对银的长期前景持乐观态度，但考虑到近期的急剧上涨，出现大幅回调的可能性增加。因此，她不建议在当前价格水平追逐这一上涨。</p>
<h2>强劲需求：长期前景依然看涨</h2>
<p>Ibrahim 指出，从中长期来看，宏观和地缘政治前景为银价提供了有利支持。“在过去一年中，我们对贵金属领域的银持乐观态度。” 不仅仅是银，自 2025 年下半年以来，整个贵金属行业的需求显著上升。</p>
<p>一方面，银受益于强劲的工业需求，因为光伏、电动车和人工智能基础设施等高增长行业都需要银作为关键材料。根据银协会的最新报告，2025 年全球银供应为 32,100 吨，而需求达到 35,700 吨，其中工业银占总需求的 60%。预计未来五年全球对银的工业需求将继续增长。</p>
<p>此外，银价的上涨与其供应链的 “中断” 有关。从 2026 年开始，中国公司需要政府许可证才能出口银，目前只有 44 家公司获得授权。为了获得出口资格，企业必须具备至少 80 吨的年精炼能力和超过 3000 万美元的信用额度。这减少了银流入全球市场的数量。</p>
<p>与此同时，在全球范围内，美国正在 “抽取” 实物银。当前 COMEX（纽约商业交易所）的银库存比 2024 年美国大选前高出约 1.25 亿盎司，增幅相当于全球银矿年供应的约 15%。然而，特朗普签署的最新政策——根据《贸易扩展法》第 232 条款关于关键矿物进口的行政命令——并未对银征收关税，部分缓解了市场对银短缺的担忧。</p>
<p>银价的上涨也反映了市场对法定货币，特别是美元的信任度下降。随着美国进入高利率、高债务和低信用的状态，去美元化的进程在全球范围内进一步推进。作为与黄金具有相同货币属性的资产，银的价值在这一过程中得到了重新确认。</p>
<h2>为什么现在购买银可能不是 “划算” 的选择？</h2>
<p>Ibrahim 指出，尽管银的看涨因素在短期内不会发生显著变化，但这些信息已经反映在当前价格中——本质上是一个 “卖出消息” 的情景。尽管美国的通胀压力依然高企，但并没有进一步加剧；与此同时，美元在经历了一段贬值后已趋于稳定，这不会刺激银价的飙升。</p>
<p>关于银控制可能导致的价格上涨，Ibrahim 表示不同意见，指出中国的银出口政策基本保持不变，出口许可证的要求实际上是对以往做法的延续。</p>
<p>相反，银价可能面临下跌的风险。她认为，最大的风险可能来自工业消费，因为市场会自然调整以应对价格上涨的影响：制造商将寻求更便宜的替代品，或者通过节约银的使用或用其他材料替代来应对。她指出，已经有需求侧调整的迹象；例如，太阳能电池制造商隆基已宣布开始使用基础金属替代银以降低成本。</p>
<h2>银并没有面临真正的短缺</h2>
<p>美国领先的贵金属交易商和存储运营商 Money Metals Exchange 的首席执行官 Stefan Gleason 表示，美国目前并没有面临真正的原银短缺。</p>
<p>他解释说，公众对短缺的看法源于精炼和铸造的瓶颈，这可能导致订单积压、产品缺货和溢价飙升。实际上，美国有限的银精炼能力影响了银产品的生产，但一旦产能恢复正常，情况应该会改善。他指出，用于铸造的 1000 盎司银条在美国仍然可用。</p>
<p>Business Review Weekly 创始人 Robert Gottliebsen 表示，目前的银溢价仅源于零售层面的稀缺，而不是全面的短缺。真正的稀缺只有在工业银用户开始绕过交易所，直接从矿山和精炼厂采购，从而耗尽市场上可用的金属时才会发生。尽管某些地区的银供应紧张，但尚未出现全面的全球短缺挤压。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

环球银矿 MSCI ETF - iShares

SLVR

实物白银股票 ETF - ETFS

白银信托 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多白银 ETF - ProShares

白银矿业股 ETF - GlobalX

SBXD

<p>银价因强劲的工业需求和地缘政治因素飙升至近 100 美元。分析师预测到 2026 年银价将翻倍，但警告投资者不要追逐当前的涨势，因为可能会出现回调。供应链中断和美国库存增加正在影响市场，而对法定货币信任的担忧则提升了银的吸引力。然而，风险依然存在，包括工业消费的调整和对短缺的看法，这可能并不反映实际的供应情况</p>

<p>TradingKey - During Friday's Asian trading session, silver briefly broke above the $99 mark, hitting a record high for the second consecutive day and coming within a stone's throw of the $100 psychological level. Despite a 180-degree turnaround in Trump's stance on Greenland, where he pledged to rule out military force—temporarily removing the threat of geopolitical conflict—the rally for silver as a safe-haven asset remained unabated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 在周五的亚洲交易时段，银价短暂突破 99 美元大关，连续第二天创下历史新高，距离 100 美元的心理关口仅一步之遥。尽管特朗普对格林兰的立场发生了 180 度的转变，承诺排除使用军事力量的可能性——暂时消除了地缘政治冲突的威胁——但作为避险资产的银价上涨势头依然不减。</p>
</div><p>Just 23 days into 2026, silver prices have already surged by 38%, compared to a 146% gain for the full year of 2025. The &#34;2026 Forecast Survey&#34; released by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) indicates that professional analysts and traders expect the average daily price of gold in 2026 to rise by nearly two-fifths compared to 2025, while the average annual price of silver is expected to double.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2026 年刚过去 23 天，银价已经上涨了 38%，而 2025 年全年则上涨了 146%。伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）发布的《2026 年预测调查》显示，专业分析师和交易员预计，2026 年黄金的平均日价格将比 2025 年上涨近五成，而银的平均年价格预计将翻倍。</p>
</div><p>However, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief strategist at BCA Research, stated in her latest precious metals report that while she remains bullish on silver in the long term, the probability of a significant pullback has increased given the recent sharp rally. Consequently, she does not recommend chasing the rally at current price levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，BCA Research 的首席策略师 Roukaya Ibrahim 在她最新的贵金属报告中表示，尽管她对银的长期前景持乐观态度，但考虑到近期的急剧上涨，出现大幅回调的可能性增加。因此，她不建议在当前价格水平追逐这一上涨。</p>
</div><h2>Robust Demand: Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>强劲需求：长期前景依然看涨</h2>
</div><p>Ibrahim noted that from a medium- to long-term perspective, the macro and geopolitical outlook provides favorable support for silver prices. &#34;We have been bullish on silver within the commodities matrix for the past year.&#34; It is not just silver; demand across the entire precious metals sector has risen significantly since the second half of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ibrahim 指出，从中长期来看，宏观和地缘政治前景为银价提供了有利支持。“在过去一年中，我们对贵金属领域的银持乐观态度。” 不仅仅是银，自 2025 年下半年以来，整个贵金属行业的需求显著上升。</p>
</div><p>On one hand, silver benefits from robust industrial demand, as high-growth industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI infrastructure all require silver as a critical material. According to the latest report from the Silver Institute, global silver supply in 2025 was 32,100 tons, while demand reached 35,700 tons, with industrial silver accounting for 60% of total demand. Global industrial demand for silver is expected to continue growing over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，银受益于强劲的工业需求，因为光伏、电动车和人工智能基础设施等高增长行业都需要银作为关键材料。根据银协会的最新报告，2025 年全球银供应为 32,100 吨，而需求达到 35,700 吨，其中工业银占总需求的 60%。预计未来五年全球对银的工业需求将继续增长。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the rise in silver prices is linked to &#34;disruptions&#34; in its supply chain. Starting from 2026, Chinese companies require government licenses to export silver, with only 44 companies currently authorized. To qualify for export, firms must have an annual refining capacity of at least 80 tons and a credit line exceeding $30 million. This has reduced the flow of silver into the global market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，银价的上涨与其供应链的 “中断” 有关。从 2026 年开始，中国公司需要政府许可证才能出口银，目前只有 44 家公司获得授权。为了获得出口资格，企业必须具备至少 80 吨的年精炼能力和超过 3000 万美元的信用额度。这减少了银流入全球市场的数量。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, across the globe, the United States is &#34;siphoning&#34; physical silver. Current COMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) silver inventories are approximately 125 million ounces higher than they were before the 2024 U.S. election, an increase equivalent to roughly 15% of annual global silver mine supply. However, the latest policy—an executive order signed by Trump invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act regarding critical mineral imports—did not mandate tariffs on silver, partially easing market concerns over a silver shortage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，在全球范围内，美国正在 “抽取” 实物银。当前 COMEX（纽约商业交易所）的银库存比 2024 年美国大选前高出约 1.25 亿盎司，增幅相当于全球银矿年供应的约 15%。然而，特朗普签署的最新政策——根据《贸易扩展法》第 232 条款关于关键矿物进口的行政命令——并未对银征收关税，部分缓解了市场对银短缺的担忧。</p>
</div><p>The rise in silver also reflects the market's diminishing trust in fiat currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar. As the United States enters a state characterized by high interest rates, high debt, and low credit, the de-dollarization process is being further propelled worldwide. As an asset sharing the same monetary attributes as gold, silver's value is being reaffirmed in this process.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价的上涨也反映了市场对法定货币，特别是美元的信任度下降。随着美国进入高利率、高债务和低信用的状态，去美元化的进程在全球范围内进一步推进。作为与黄金具有相同货币属性的资产，银的价值在这一过程中得到了重新确认。</p>
</div><h2>Why Buying Silver Now May Not Be &#34;Cost-Effective&#34;?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么现在购买银可能不是 “划算” 的选择？</h2>
</div><p>Ibrahim pointed out that while the bullish factors for silver will not change significantly in the short term, this information is already reflected in current prices—essentially, a &#34;sell the news&#34; scenario. Although U.S. inflationary pressures remain elevated, they have not intensified further; meanwhile, the dollar has stabilized following a period of depreciation, which will not stimulate a surge in silver prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ibrahim 指出，尽管银的看涨因素在短期内不会发生显著变化，但这些信息已经反映在当前价格中——本质上是一个 “卖出消息” 的情景。尽管美国的通胀压力依然高企，但并没有进一步加剧；与此同时，美元在经历了一段贬值后已趋于稳定，这不会刺激银价的飙升。</p>
</div><p>Regarding potential price increases caused by silver controls, Ibrahim disagreed, noting that China's silver export policy has remained largely unchanged and that the requirement for export licenses is effectively a continuation of practices from previous years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于银控制可能导致的价格上涨，Ibrahim 表示不同意见，指出中国的银出口政策基本保持不变，出口许可证的要求实际上是对以往做法的延续。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, there is a risk that silver prices could fall. She believes the greatest risk may stem from industrial consumption, as the market will naturally adjust to the impact of rising prices: manufacturers will seek cheaper alternatives, either by economizing silver usage or replacing it with other materials. She noted that there are already signs of demand-side adjustments; for example, solar cell manufacturer Longi has announced that it has begun using base metals to replace silver in solar cells to reduce costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，银价可能面临下跌的风险。她认为，最大的风险可能来自工业消费，因为市场会自然调整以应对价格上涨的影响：制造商将寻求更便宜的替代品，或者通过节约银的使用或用其他材料替代来应对。她指出，已经有需求侧调整的迹象；例如，太阳能电池制造商隆基已宣布开始使用基础金属替代银以降低成本。</p>
</div><h2>Silver is Not Facing a Genuine Shortage</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>银并没有面临真正的短缺</h2>
</div><p>Stefan Gleason, CEO of Money Metals Exchange, a leading U.S. precious metals dealer and depository operator, stated that the U.S. is not currently facing a genuine shortage of raw silver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国领先的贵金属交易商和存储运营商 Money Metals Exchange 的首席执行官 Stefan Gleason 表示，美国目前并没有面临真正的原银短缺。</p>
</div><p>He explained that the public perception of a shortage arises from bottlenecks in refining and minting, which can lead to order backlogs, product stockouts, and soaring premiums. The reality is that limited silver refining capacity in the U.S. has affected the production of silver products, but the situation should improve once capacity returns to normal. He noted that 1,000-ounce silver bars used for minting are still available in the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他解释说，公众对短缺的看法源于精炼和铸造的瓶颈，这可能导致订单积压、产品缺货和溢价飙升。实际上，美国有限的银精炼能力影响了银产品的生产，但一旦产能恢复正常，情况应该会改善。他指出，用于铸造的 1000 盎司银条在美国仍然可用。</p>
</div><p>Robert Gottliebsen, founder of Business Review Weekly, stated that current silver premiums stem solely from retail-level scarcity rather than a comprehensive shortage. Real scarcity would only occur when industrial silver users begin to bypass exchanges and source directly from mines and refineries, thereby draining the market of available metal. Although there are signs of tight silver supply in some regions, a full-scale global short squeeze has not yet materialized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Business Review Weekly 创始人 Robert Gottliebsen 表示，目前的银溢价仅源于零售层面的稀缺，而不是全面的短缺。真正的稀缺只有在工业银用户开始绕过交易所，直接从矿山和精炼厂采购，从而耗尽市场上可用的金属时才会发生。尽管某些地区的银供应紧张，但尚未出现全面的全球短缺挤压。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Silver Prices to Break $100 Mark. First Touching $99, Institutions Warn: Silver Is Severely Overbought

TradingKey

Sprott Silver Mnrs & Physical Silver ETF

Silverbox Corp IV

白银价格将突破 100 美元大关。首次触及 99 美元，机构警告称：白银已严重超买