<p>股票和外汇在强劲的一周后表现平淡</p>
<p>拉美基金获得超过 9.6 亿美元的股票流入 - 摩根大通</p>
<p>巴西和秘鲁股票创下新纪录高点</p>
<p>墨西哥经济在 11 月意外收缩</p>
<p>作者：Twesha Dikshit 和 Ragini Mathur</p>
<p>1 月 23 日（路透社）- 拉美资产在周五表现平淡，尽管一周表现强劲，地缘政治紧张局势导致贵金属上涨，而资源丰富的地区也受益于强劲的资金流入。</p>
<p>摩根大通数据显示，新兴市场股票流入在过去一周再次强劲，拉美基金获得超过 9.6 亿美元的资金流入，这是近 15 年来最强的认购。</p>
<p>MSCI 拉丁美洲股票指数（.MILA00000PUS）和货币指数（.MILA00000CUS）持平。在全球紧张局势导致全球市场停滞的一周中，两者都预计将实现稳健的周度涨幅。</p>
<p>“市场的持续波动仍在继续，全球股票和债券的表现参差不齐，美元走弱。新兴市场股票和贵金属表现最佳，而欧盟和美国股票则落后，” BNY 的市场宏观策略负责人 Bob Savage 在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>拉美在 2026 年迄今已证明对地缘政治噪音具有韧性，整体股票指数显示出两位数的涨幅，得益于对安全避风港贵金属的轮换以及对其他地区的多元化投资。</p>
<p>不过，随着秘鲁、哥伦比亚和巴西的选举以及美墨加贸易协定谈判，预计在新的一年中仍会出现一些波动。</p>
<h3>股票上涨，外汇承压</h3>
<p>摩根大通分析师表示，他们对巴西股票持 ‘超配’ 评级，预计中央银行将进入宽松周期，并且即将举行选举。基准股票指数（.BVSP）上涨 0.3%，并有望实现超过 5 年来的最大周涨幅。巴西中央银行否认了一则报告，称其一名董事要求贷款机构 BRB 购买正在调查中的 Banco Master 的资产，该银行因涉嫌欺诈而被清算。墨西哥股票（.MXX）下跌 0.5%，数据显示经济在 11 月意外收缩。市场普遍预计中央银行将暂停降息周期。</p>
<p>铜出口国秘鲁的基准指数（.MXNUAMPESCPGPE）创下新纪录高点，上涨 0.5%。在智利 Capstone Copper 表示工人罢工迫使其 Mantoverde 矿停产后，铜价上涨。智利（.SPIPSA）和阿根廷（.MERV）的股票指数上涨，而哥伦比亚的指数（.COLCAP）则小幅下跌。阿根廷中央银行在周四放宽了货币管制，允许公司进入官方外汇市场以提前偿还外币债务，前提是偿还与长期再融资同时进行。</p>
<p>货币普遍走弱，哥伦比亚比索（CLP=）对美元贬值 0.8%。巴西雷亚尔（BRL=）和智利比索（CLP=）各下跌 0.3%。与此同时，美国对委内瑞拉石油出口的控制阻止了用于偿还中国债务的原油，这可能导致两大超级大国之间的对峙，进一步复杂化南美国家的违约问题。</p>
<p>关键拉美股票指数和货币（14:37）</p>
<p>股票指数 最新 日变化%</p>
<p>变化</p>
<p>MSCI 新兴市场 1498.31 0.21</p>
<p>市场（.MSCIEF）</p>
<p>MSCI 拉美 3043.31 -0.08</p>
<p>（.MILA00000PUS）</p>
<p>巴西 Bovespa 176170.65 0.33</p>
<p>（.BVSP）</p>
<p>墨西哥 IPC（.MXX）68010.38 -0.49</p>
<p>智利 IPSA（.SPIPSA）11525.37 0.15</p>
<p>阿根廷 MerVal 3084119.3 0.58</p>
<p>（.MERV）</p>
<p>哥伦比亚 COLCAP 2424.63 -0.38</p>
<p>（.COLCAP）</p>
<p>货币 最新 日变化%</p>
<p>变化</p>
<p>巴西雷亚尔（BRL=）5.2999 -0.29</p>
<p>墨西哥比索（MXN=）17.4739 -0.01</p>
<p>智利比索（CLP=）870.72 -0.25</p>
<p>哥伦比亚比索（COP=）3628.14 -0.79</p>
<p>秘鲁索尔（PEN=）3.3543 -0.01</p>
<p>阿根廷比索 1,430.0 -0.03</p>
<p>（银行间）</p>
<p>（ARS=RASL）</p>
<p>阿根廷比索 1,470.0 1.67</p>
<p>（平行）（ARSB=）</p>

易方达伊塔乌巴西IBOVESPAETF(QDII)

<p>拉丁美洲股票市场有望迎来连续第五周的上涨，资金流入超过 9.6 亿美元，为近 15 年来最高水平。尽管地缘政治紧张局势持续，该地区的股票指数，特别是在巴西和秘鲁，达到了历史新高。然而，墨西哥经济在 11 月份意外收缩，影响了其股市。分析师对巴西股票持乐观态度，原因在于预计中央银行将放宽政策以及即将到来的选举，而各国货币普遍对美元贬值。总体而言，拉美市场在全球波动中表现出韧性，贵金属表现强劲</p>

<p>Stocks, FX muted after a strong week</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票和外汇在强劲的一周后表现平淡</p>
</div><p>LatAm funds receive equity inflows of over $960 mln - JPM</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉美基金获得超过 9.6 亿美元的股票流入 - 摩根大通</p>
</div><p>Brazil, Peru stocks at fresh record highs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西和秘鲁股票创下新纪录高点</p>
</div><p>Mexican economy unexpectedly contracts in November</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥经济在 11 月意外收缩</p>
</div><p>By Twesha Dikshit and Ragini Mathur</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Twesha Dikshit 和 Ragini Mathur</p>
</div><p>Jan 23 (Reuters) - LatAm assets were muted on Friday, after a strong weekly performance, as geopolitical jitters led to a precious metals rally while the resource-rich region also benefited from strong inflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月 23 日（路透社）- 拉美资产在周五表现平淡，尽管一周表现强劲，地缘政治紧张局势导致贵金属上涨，而资源丰富的地区也受益于强劲的资金流入。</p>
</div><p>J.P. Morgan data showed EM equity inflows posted another strong week with LatAm funds gaining over $960 million - the strongest subscription in almost 15 years - according to the bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通数据显示，新兴市场股票流入在过去一周再次强劲，拉美基金获得超过 9.6 亿美元的资金流入，这是近 15 年来最强的认购。</p>
</div><p>MSCI’s gauge of Latin American equities (.MILA00000PUS) and currencies (.MILA00000CUS) was flat. Both were set for solid weekly gains during a week where developing global tensions led to a stall in global markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 拉丁美洲股票指数（.MILA00000PUS）和货币指数（.MILA00000CUS）持平。在全球紧张局势导致全球市场停滞的一周中，两者都预计将实现稳健的周度涨幅。</p>
</div><p>“The ongoing volatility in markets continues, with mixed results in global equities and bonds, and a weaker USD. EM equities and precious metals are the leading performers, with EU and U.S. shares lagging,” said BNY’s head of markets macro strategy Bob Savage in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市场的持续波动仍在继续，全球股票和债券的表现参差不齐，美元走弱。新兴市场股票和贵金属表现最佳，而欧盟和美国股票则落后，” BNY 的市场宏观策略负责人 Bob Savage 在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>LatAm has proven to be resilient to geopolitical noise so far in 2026 with the broader equity index showing double-digit gains, aided by a rotation to safe haven precious metals and a diversification away from other regions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>拉美在 2026 年迄今已证明对地缘政治噪音具有韧性，整体股票指数显示出两位数的涨幅，得益于对安全避风港贵金属的轮换以及对其他地区的多元化投资。</p>
</div><p>Still, some volatility is expected going into the year with elections in Peru, Colombia and Brazil as well as USMCA trade negotiations for Mexico.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，随着秘鲁、哥伦比亚和巴西的选举以及美墨加贸易协定谈判，预计在新的一年中仍会出现一些波动。</p>
</div><h3>EQUITIES HIGHER, FX UNDER PRESSURE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>股票上涨，外汇承压</h3>
</div><p>J.P.Morgan analysts said they were ‘overweight’ Brazil equities on expected central bank easing cycle and upcoming elections. The benchmark stock index (.BVSP) rose 0.3% and was set for its largest weekly gain in over 5 years. Brazil’s central bank rejected a report that one of its directors asked lender BRB to buy assets of liquidated Banco Master, currently under investigation for alleged fraud. Mexican stocks (.MXX) dropped 0.5%, with data showing the economy unexpectedly contracting in November. The central bank is widely expected to pause its interest rate cuts cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通分析师表示，他们对巴西股票持 ‘超配’ 评级，预计中央银行将进入宽松周期，并且即将举行选举。基准股票指数（.BVSP）上涨 0.3%，并有望实现超过 5 年来的最大周涨幅。巴西中央银行否认了一则报告，称其一名董事要求贷款机构 BRB 购买正在调查中的 Banco Master 的资产，该银行因涉嫌欺诈而被清算。墨西哥股票（.MXX）下跌 0.5%，数据显示经济在 11 月意外收缩。市场普遍预计中央银行将暂停降息周期。</p>
</div><p>Copper-exporter Peru’s benchmark index (.MXNUAMPESCPGPE) was at a fresh record high, adding 0.5%. Copper prices firmed after Chile’s Capstone Copper said a worker’s strike had forced a production halt at its Mantoverde mine in Chile. Stock indexes in Chile (.SPIPSA) and Argentina (.MERV) were higher, while Colombia’s (.COLCAP) ticked lower. Argentina’s central bank eased currency controls on Thursday, allowing companies to access the official foreign exchange market to prepay foreign currency debt, provided the repayment was carried out alongside longer-term refinancing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜出口国秘鲁的基准指数（.MXNUAMPESCPGPE）创下新纪录高点，上涨 0.5%。在智利 Capstone Copper 表示工人罢工迫使其 Mantoverde 矿停产后，铜价上涨。智利（.SPIPSA）和阿根廷（.MERV）的股票指数上涨，而哥伦比亚的指数（.COLCAP）则小幅下跌。阿根廷中央银行在周四放宽了货币管制，允许公司进入官方外汇市场以提前偿还外币债务，前提是偿还与长期再融资同时进行。</p>
</div><p>Currencies were broadly weaker, with Colombia’s peso (CLP=) weakening 0.8% against the greenback. Brazil’s real (BRL=) and the Chilean peso (CLP=) dropped 0.3%, each. Meanwhile, U.S. control of Venezuela’s oil exports blocked barrels that had been servicing debt to China, lining up a potential showdown between the two superpowers that could further complicated the South American country’s path out of default.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币普遍走弱，哥伦比亚比索（CLP=）对美元贬值 0.8%。巴西雷亚尔（BRL=）和智利比索（CLP=）各下跌 0.3%。与此同时，美国对委内瑞拉石油出口的控制阻止了用于偿还中国债务的原油，这可能导致两大超级大国之间的对峙，进一步复杂化南美国家的违约问题。</p>
</div><p>Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 14:37</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键拉美股票指数和货币（14:37）</p>
</div><p>Stock indexes Latest Daily %</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票指数 最新 日变化%</p>
</div><p>change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>变化</p>
</div><p>MSCI Emerging 1498.31 0.21</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 新兴市场 1498.31 0.21</p>
</div><p>Markets (.MSCIEF)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场（.MSCIEF）</p>
</div><p>MSCI LatAm 3043.31 -0.08</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 拉美 3043.31 -0.08</p>
</div><p>(.MILA00000PUS)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（.MILA00000PUS）</p>
</div><p>Brazil Bovespa 176170.65 0.33</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西 Bovespa 176170.65 0.33</p>
</div><p>(.BVSP)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（.BVSP）</p>
</div><p>Mexico IPC (.MXX) 68010.38 -0.49</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥 IPC（.MXX）68010.38 -0.49</p>
</div><p>Chile IPSA (.SPIPSA) 11525.37 0.15</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>智利 IPSA（.SPIPSA）11525.37 0.15</p>
</div><p>Argentina MerVal 3084119.3 0.58</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿根廷 MerVal 3084119.3 0.58</p>
</div><p>(.MERV)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（.MERV）</p>
</div><p>Colombia COLCAP 2424.63 -0.38</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哥伦比亚 COLCAP 2424.63 -0.38</p>
</div><p>(.COLCAP)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（.COLCAP）</p>
</div><p>Currencies Latest Daily %</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币 最新 日变化%</p>
</div><p>change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>变化</p>
</div><p>Brazil real (BRL=) 5.2999 -0.29</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西雷亚尔（BRL=）5.2999 -0.29</p>
</div><p>Mexico peso (MXN=) 17.4739 -0.01</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>墨西哥比索（MXN=）17.4739 -0.01</p>
</div><p>Chile peso (CLP=) 870.72 -0.25</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>智利比索（CLP=）870.72 -0.25</p>
</div><p>Colombia peso (COP=) 3628.14 -0.79</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哥伦比亚比索（COP=）3628.14 -0.79</p>
</div><p>Peru sol (PEN=) 3.3543 -0.01</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>秘鲁索尔（PEN=）3.3543 -0.01</p>
</div><p>Argentina peso 1,430.0 -0.03</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿根廷比索 1,430.0 -0.03</p>
</div><p>(interbank)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（银行间）</p>
</div><p>(ARS=RASL)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（ARS=RASL）</p>
</div><p>Argentina peso 1,470.0 1.67</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿根廷比索 1,470.0 1.67</p>
</div><p>(parallel) (ARSB=)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（平行）（ARSB=）</p>
</div>

新兴市场 - 拉美股市因资金流入强劲和贵金属价格飙升而连续第五周上涨