<p>比特币再次交易于$90,000 以下，市场继续在一个由犹豫、日益谨慎和不断增长的恐惧所定义的阶段中漂浮。在多次未能重新夺回这一心理关口后，价格走势开始反映出双方缺乏信心，买家犹豫不决，卖家则在每次反弹尝试中施加压力。尽管整体趋势尚未完全崩溃，但无法维持关键水平正在增加对比特币下一次重大走势的不确定性。</p>
<p>顶级分析师 Darkfost 认为，链上信号开始反映出通常在长期回调结束时出现的条件。根据他的分析，比特币的未实现利润和损失正在回落至历史上仅在熊市结束时出现的水平，此时市场已经吸收了情绪的深度重置。这一变化表明，尽管价格尚未进入全面抛售阶段，但压力正在潜伏之下积累。</p>
<p>自比特币上次创下历史新高以来，Darkfost 指出，许多晚到的投资者已经进入了不舒服的境地，面临着随着市场降温而加剧的下行压力。因此，未实现利润正在缩小，未实现损失正在扩大，整体余额持续恶化——这种环境通常迫使交易者在经历波动时做出持有或在压力下退出的决定。</p>
<p><strong>比特币投资者的决策点</strong></p>
<p>Darkfost 强调了一张基于调整后的 NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）图表，旨在更准确地捕捉在市场环境变化期间投资者的压力。该模型不仅依赖于标准市值，还结合了短期持有者（STHs）和长期持有者（LTHs）的实现市值，然后将这种混合的实现基础与比特币的传统市值进行比较。</p>
<p>结果是更清晰地看出市场上有多少利润或损失 “在纸面上”，通过更结构化的视角进行过滤。为了减少噪音并更好地定义趋势变化，该指标使用平均值进行平滑，产生了 Darkfost 所称的 aNUPL。</p>
<p>关键的结论是，比特币正接近历史上迫使投资者做出二元决策的水平。当未实现利润压缩和未实现损失扩大到这些范围时，持有者通常面临两种结果：持有并继续积累，或放弃并锁定损失。这种行为的差异变得至关重要，因为它影响流动性、情绪和下一个方向趋势。</p>
<p>如果长期参与者能够承受压力并继续持有，市场可以稳定并重新回到复苏轨道。但如果来自压力群体的抛售加速，下降可能会加深为更广泛的熊市阶段。这就是为什么在不确定时期跟踪实现和未实现利润动态仍然至关重要。</p>
<p><strong>比特币在剧烈周线下跌后整合</strong></p>
<p>比特币在周线图上交易于约$89,000，此前经历了一次急剧的抛售，将价格推离了之前的分配区。最新的蜡烛图反映出强烈的下行压力，BTC 在这一周下跌了约 4.8%，并在一个关键的支撑和阻力点附近挣扎以稳定。</p>
<p>在未能维持在心理关口$90,000 以上后，市场现在被困在一个狭窄的整合区间，暗示交易者在进行更大动作之前正在等待确认。</p>
<p>从趋势的角度来看，比特币仍然脆弱，因为它交易于蓝色移动平均线以下，该线现在在低$100K 区域充当上方阻力。从这一动态水平的拒绝与更广泛的结构一致：BTC 在中$120K 区间见顶，然后进入了一段急剧的修正阶段，将动能重置至 2026 年初。尽管绿色移动平均线继续向上倾斜并接近当前价格区间，但市场尚未显示出重新夺回其前趋势轨迹所需的力量。</p>
<p>重要的是，周线结构现在正在压缩。如果买家能够捍卫$88K–$90K 区域并将 BTC 推回至$92K–$95K 以上，这将标志着向移动平均带的复苏尝试。然而，在这里持续失败增加了向低$80K 区域更深回撤的风险，此前的需求曾在此出现。</p>
<p>图片来自 ChatGPT，图表来自 TradingView.com</p>

<p>比特币目前交易价格低于 90,000 美元，反映出市场的不确定性和投资者日益增强的谨慎。分析师 Darkfost 指出，链上信号表明当前的市场状况典型于熊市结束时的情况，未实现利润正在缩小，而损失在扩大。这种情况迫使投资者在压力下选择持有或退出。本周比特币价格下跌了 4.8%，在未能维持在 90,000 美元以上后，价格难以稳定。市场处于紧密的整合区间，接下来的走势将取决于买家能否捍卫关键支撑位，或者卖压是否会加深下跌</p>

<p>Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 level once again, as the market continues to drift through a phase defined by indecision, rising caution, and growing fear. After repeated failures to reclaim this psychological threshold, price action has started to reflect a lack of conviction on both sides, with buyers hesitating to step in aggressively and sellers pressing every rebound attempt. While the broader trend has not fully collapsed, the inability to hold key levels is increasing uncertainty around Bitcoin’s next major move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币再次交易于$90,000 以下，市场继续在一个由犹豫、日益谨慎和不断增长的恐惧所定义的阶段中漂浮。在多次未能重新夺回这一心理关口后，价格走势开始反映出双方缺乏信心，买家犹豫不决，卖家则在每次反弹尝试中施加压力。尽管整体趋势尚未完全崩溃，但无法维持关键水平正在增加对比特币下一次重大走势的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Top analyst Darkfost argues that on-chain signals are starting to mirror conditions typically seen near the end of prolonged drawdowns. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s unrealized profits and losses are sliding back toward levels that have historically appeared only at the exit of bear markets, when the market has already absorbed a deep reset in sentiment. This shift suggests that stress is building under the surface, even if price has not yet entered a full capitulation phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>顶级分析师 Darkfost 认为，链上信号开始反映出通常在长期回调结束时出现的条件。根据他的分析，比特币的未实现利润和损失正在回落至历史上仅在熊市结束时出现的水平，此时市场已经吸收了情绪的深度重置。这一变化表明，尽管价格尚未进入全面抛售阶段，但压力正在潜伏之下积累。</p>
</div><p>Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, Darkfost notes that many late-arriving investors have moved into uncomfortable territory, facing mounting downside pressure as the market cools. As a result, unrealized profits are shrinking, unrealized losses are expanding, and the overall balance continues to deteriorate—an environment that often forces traders into a decisive choice between holding through volatility or exiting under stress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自比特币上次创下历史新高以来，Darkfost 指出，许多晚到的投资者已经进入了不舒服的境地，面临着随着市场降温而加剧的下行压力。因此，未实现利润正在缩小，未实现损失正在扩大，整体余额持续恶化——这种环境通常迫使交易者在经历波动时做出持有或在压力下退出的决定。</p>
</div><p><strong>Decision Point For Bitcoin Investors</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币投资者的决策点</strong></p>
</div><p>Darkfost highlighted a chart based on an adjusted version of NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), designed to capture investor stress more accurately during shifting market regimes. Instead of relying solely on the standard market cap, the model incorporates the realized capitalization of both Short-Term Holders (STHs) and Long-Term Holders (LTHs), then compares that blended realized foundation against Bitcoin’s traditional market cap.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Darkfost 强调了一张基于调整后的 NUPL（净未实现利润/损失）图表，旨在更准确地捕捉在市场环境变化期间投资者的压力。该模型不仅依赖于标准市值，还结合了短期持有者（STHs）和长期持有者（LTHs）的实现市值，然后将这种混合的实现基础与比特币的传统市值进行比较。</p>
</div><p>The result is a clearer view of how much profit or loss sits “on paper” across the market, filtered through a more structural lens. To reduce noise and better define trend shifts, the metric is smoothed using an average, producing what Darkfost refers to as aNUPL.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结果是更清晰地看出市场上有多少利润或损失 “在纸面上”，通过更结构化的视角进行过滤。为了减少噪音并更好地定义趋势变化，该指标使用平均值进行平滑，产生了 Darkfost 所称的 aNUPL。</p>
</div><p>The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is approaching levels that have historically forced investors into a binary decision. When unrealized profits compress and unrealized losses expand to these ranges, holders typically face two outcomes: hold and continue accumulating, or capitulate and lock in losses. That difference in behavior becomes critical because it shapes liquidity, sentiment, and the next directional trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关键的结论是，比特币正接近历史上迫使投资者做出二元决策的水平。当未实现利润压缩和未实现损失扩大到这些范围时，持有者通常面临两种结果：持有并继续积累，或放弃并锁定损失。这种行为的差异变得至关重要，因为它影响流动性、情绪和下一个方向趋势。</p>
</div><p>If long-term participants absorb the pressure and keep holding, the market can stabilize and rotate back into recovery. But if selling accelerates from stressed cohorts, the decline can deepen into a broader bear phase. This is why tracking realized and unrealized profit dynamics remains essential, especially during periods of uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果长期参与者能够承受压力并继续持有，市场可以稳定并重新回到复苏轨道。但如果来自压力群体的抛售加速，下降可能会加深为更广泛的熊市阶段。这就是为什么在不确定时期跟踪实现和未实现利润动态仍然至关重要。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin Consolidates After Sharp Weekly Breakdown</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币在剧烈周线下跌后整合</strong></p>
</div><p>Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 on the weekly chart after a steep selloff that pushed the price out of its prior distribution zone. The latest candle reflects heavy downside pressure, with BTC dropping roughly 4.8% on the week and struggling to stabilize near a key pivot that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币在周线图上交易于约$89,000，此前经历了一次急剧的抛售，将价格推离了之前的分配区。最新的蜡烛图反映出强烈的下行压力，BTC 在这一周下跌了约 4.8%，并在一个关键的支撑和阻力点附近挣扎以稳定。</p>
</div><p>After failing to hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold, the market is now trapped in a tight consolidation range, suggesting traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未能维持在心理关口$90,000 以上后，市场现在被困在一个狭窄的整合区间，暗示交易者在进行更大动作之前正在等待确认。</p>
</div><p>From a trend standpoint, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as it trades below the blue moving average, which is now acting as overhead resistance near the low-$100K region. The rejection from that dynamic level aligns with the broader structure: BTC topped near the mid-$120K range, then entered a sharp corrective leg that reset momentum into early 2026. While the green moving average continues to slope upward and is approaching the current price zone, the market has not yet shown the strength needed to reclaim its former trend trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从趋势的角度来看，比特币仍然脆弱，因为它交易于蓝色移动平均线以下，该线现在在低$100K 区域充当上方阻力。从这一动态水平的拒绝与更广泛的结构一致：BTC 在中$120K 区间见顶，然后进入了一段急剧的修正阶段，将动能重置至 2026 年初。尽管绿色移动平均线继续向上倾斜并接近当前价格区间，但市场尚未显示出重新夺回其前趋势轨迹所需的力量。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, the weekly structure is now compressing. If buyers can defend the $88K–$90K region and push BTC back above $92K–$95K, it would signal a recovery attempt toward the moving average band. However, a sustained failure here increases the risk of a deeper retracement toward the low-$80K zone, where prior demand previously emerged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，周线结构现在正在压缩。如果买家能够捍卫$88K–$90K 区域并将 BTC 推回至$92K–$95K 以上，这将标志着向移动平均带的复苏尝试。然而，在这里持续失败增加了向低$80K 区域更深回撤的风险，此前的需求曾在此出现。</p>
</div><p>Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来自 ChatGPT，图表来自 TradingView.com</p>
</div>

Bitcoin Indicator Falls Back To Post-Bear Market Levels: Investors Approach A Key Decision Point

- 比特币再次跌破 90,000 美元，市场情绪谨慎。  
- 分析师认为，未实现盈利和亏损接近历史低位，表明潜在压力。  
- 若未能持稳 88K-90K 区域，可能加深回调至低 80K 区间。

比特币指标回落至熊市后的水平：投资者面临关键决策点