<p>美国在格林兰的地缘政治冒险使其与欧盟的经济关系变得更加明显。欧洲大国正在考虑应对美国侵略行为的手段，包括抛售美国债务的 “核选项”。</p>
<p>在达沃斯所谓的 “交易框架” 之后，语气发生了变化，美国对格林兰的接管野心暂时降温。但欧盟国家元首仍在准备对进一步升级的可能回应。</p>
<p>一个选项是通过所谓的 “贸易大炮” 切断对美国市场的访问。如果触发，将使美国公司无法进入欧盟市场，损失数十亿美元。另一个选项是抛售在欧洲持有的数万亿美元美国资产。</p>
<p>但关于其可行性仍然存在疑问，因为抛售可能会彻底改变全球经济格局。这也可能对美国金融系统在稳定币方面的风险敞口产生连锁反应。</p>
<p><strong>欧盟真的能抛售美国债务吗？</strong></p>
<p>在 1 月 21 日之前，欧洲领导人正在考虑可能的回应。丹麦向格林兰派遣特种部队，而其他国家元首则建议使用贸易大炮，拒绝美国进入欧盟市场。</p>
<p>其他人，包括前荷兰国防部长迪克·贝尔林，建议欧洲可以利用美国债务作为杠杆。贝尔林表示：“如果欧洲决定抛售这些债券，将在美国造成大问题。[美元] 崩溃，高通胀。美国选民不会喜欢这样的结果。”</p>
<p>德意志银行首席外汇策略师乔治·萨拉维洛斯在上周末的一份报告中写道：“尽管美国在军事和经济上实力强大，但它有一个关键弱点：依赖他人来支付其账单，导致巨额外部赤字。”</p>
<p>萨拉维洛斯表示，美国目前拥有 8 万亿美元的美国债券和股票，这一数字是 “全球其他地区总和的两倍。”</p>
<p>但欧洲真的能抛售这些债务吗？欧盟如何强迫出售以及在一个日益去美元化的世界中，潜在买家是谁，都是问题。</p>
<p>范德比尔特大学法学教授兼副院长耶莎·雅达夫告诉 Cointelegraph：“外国政府买家往往是粘性的，这意味着他们不会轻易转移其持有的资产，除非有严重的需要。”</p>
<p>此外，金融时报指出，欧洲的大部分美国债务并不是由政府持有，而是由养老金基金、银行和其他机构投资者等私人实体持有。雅达夫指出，英国、卢森堡和比利时的对冲基金已成为美国国债的主要买家。</p>
<p>因此，即使欧洲大国想要抛售美国债务，他们也需要强迫这些私人买家出售。雅达夫表示：“在短期内，欧洲政府对对冲基金购买美国国债施加限制似乎不太可能。”</p>
<p>法国外贸银行首席外汇策略师基特·贾克斯写道：“在他们为了政治目的损害投资表现之前，情况可能需要进一步升级。”</p>
<p>然而，雅达夫表示：“他们可能会考虑将被视为最安全的政府债务作为抵押品。”</p>
<p>主要问题是，作为风险规避投资的替代品，除了美国债务外并没有很多选择。国债仍然享有 “无风险” 地位，并且通常流动性很高。</p>
<p>“即使其他高度稳定和安全的国家，如德国，开始发行债务，他们的债务市场仍然相对较小，因此很难想象它们会取代美国国债市场，” 雅达夫表示。</p>
<p>潜在买家也很稀缺。雅达夫指出，中国已在减少其美国债务购买的步伐。</p>
<p>亚洲买家没有能力吸收那么多美国资产。根据金融时报的数据，跟踪亚洲发展中和新兴市场的大型和中型股票的 MSCI 全国家指数的市值约为 13.5 万亿美元，而 FTSE 世界政府债券指数约为 7.3 万亿美元。</p>
<p>Rabobank 的分析师写道：“尽管美国的大额经常账户赤字理论上表明，如果国际储户大规模撤出美国资产，美元可能会下跌，但美国资本市场的庞大规模表明，这种退出可能在替代市场的限制下不可行。”</p>
<p><strong>稳定币成为美国债务的主要买家</strong></p>
<p>一个新兴的美国债务主要买家是稳定币发行者。</p>
<p>根据 GENIUS 法案，美国的里程碑立法为稳定币创建了框架，发行这些资产的公司必须持有美元和美国国债作为其币种的储备。</p>
<p>“稳定币发行者的快速增长意味着他们对国债的需求相应地很高。只要这一趋势持续下去，这对美国政策制定者来说是一个巨大的优势，但它也加深了稳定币发行者的持续性与美国国债市场继续保持流动性和受欢迎程度之间的联系，” 雅达夫表示。</p>
<p>稳定币发行者作为美国债务买家的激增并非没有风险。这与美国债务买家减少相结合，特别是在欧盟抛售或甚至显著减少其风险敞口的情况下，可能会给美国国债市场带来麻烦。</p>
<p>雅达夫和曾在美联储支付和清算部门工作的布伦丹·马龙此前曾指出，美国债务市场在 2020 年 3 月和 2025 年 4 月都经历了流动性冲击。</p>
<p>如果稳定币发行者出现挤兑，这种流动性不足和缺乏对手方出售的情况可能会阻止发行者出售其证券。它将变得资不抵债，并对美国国债市场的信誉产生重大影响。</p>
<p>在日益多极化的世界中，经济和军事的升级导致了前盟友之间的裂痕。尽管欧盟和美国之间仍有对话的希望，拉脱维亚总统埃德加尔斯·林克维奇斯表示：“我们还没有走出困境 [..] 我们是否处于不可逆转的裂痕中？不。但显然存在明确而迫在眉睫的危险。” 这种危险不仅影响到欧洲和格林兰的主权，也影响到美国的债务市场。</p>

MMKT

GMMF

<p>美国与欧洲之间因格林兰产生的地缘政治紧张局势促使欧洲领导人考虑出售美国债务作为潜在回应。虽然一些选项，如切断美国市场准入，正在讨论中，但抛售美国债务的可行性仍然不确定。大多数在欧洲的美国债务由私人实体持有，这使得政府难以强制出售。美国国债的替代品有限，而稳定币发行者正逐渐成为美国债务的重要买家，进一步复杂化了局势</p>

<p>The United States’ geopolitical brinkmanship over Greenland has thrown its economic ties to the EU into sharp relief. European powers are considering what instruments it has to combat US belligerence, including the “nuclear option” of offloading US debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国在格林兰的地缘政治冒险使其与欧盟的经济关系变得更加明显。欧洲大国正在考虑应对美国侵略行为的手段，包括抛售美国债务的 “核选项”。</p>
</div><p>The tone has shifted after a supposed “framework of a deal” at Davos, and US ambitions to take over Greenland have cooled, for now. But EU heads of state are still preparing possible responses to further escalation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在达沃斯所谓的 “交易框架” 之后，语气发生了变化，美国对格林兰的接管野心暂时降温。但欧盟国家元首仍在准备对进一步升级的可能回应。</p>
</div><p>One option was cutting off access to US markets through the so-called “trade bazooka.” If triggered, it would cut off US companies from the EU market, costing them billions. Another option is offloading the trillions of dollars in US assets held in Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个选项是通过所谓的 “贸易大炮” 切断对美国市场的访问。如果触发，将使美国公司无法进入欧盟市场，损失数十亿美元。另一个选项是抛售在欧洲持有的数万亿美元美国资产。</p>
</div><p>But questions remain regarding its feasibility, as dumping could drastically change the global economic landscape. It could also have knock-on effects for the US financial system’s exposure to stablecoins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但关于其可行性仍然存在疑问，因为抛售可能会彻底改变全球经济格局。这也可能对美国金融系统在稳定币方面的风险敞口产生连锁反应。</p>
</div><p><strong>Can the EU actually dump US debt?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>欧盟真的能抛售美国债务吗？</strong></p>
</div><p>Prior to Jan. 21, European leaders were considering possible responses. While Denmark deployed special forces to Greenland, other heads of state suggested the trade bazooka, which would deny the US access to EU markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1 月 21 日之前，欧洲领导人正在考虑可能的回应。丹麦向格林兰派遣特种部队，而其他国家元首则建议使用贸易大炮，拒绝美国进入欧盟市场。</p>
</div><p>Others, including former Dutch Defense Minister Dick Berlijn, suggested that Europe could use US debt as leverage. Berlijn said, “If Europe decides to offload those bonds, it creates a big problem in the US. [The dollar] crashes, high inflation. The US voter won’t like that.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他人，包括前荷兰国防部长迪克·贝尔林，建议欧洲可以利用美国债务作为杠杆。贝尔林表示：“如果欧洲决定抛售这些债券，将在美国造成大问题。[美元] 崩溃，高通胀。美国选民不会喜欢这样的结果。”</p>
</div><p>George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank’s chief FX strategist, wrote in a note last weekend, “For all its military and economic strength, the US has one key weakness: it relies on others to pay its bills via large external deficits.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德意志银行首席外汇策略师乔治·萨拉维洛斯在上周末的一份报告中写道：“尽管美国在军事和经济上实力强大，但它有一个关键弱点：依赖他人来支付其账单，导致巨额外部赤字。”</p>
</div><p>Saravelos said that the US currently owns $8 trillion in US bonds and equities, which is “twice as much as the rest of the world combined.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>萨拉维洛斯表示，美国目前拥有 8 万亿美元的美国债券和股票，这一数字是 “全球其他地区总和的两倍。”</p>
</div><p>But can Europe actually offload this debt? There are both questions of how the EU could compel a sale and, in a world that is increasingly de-dollarizing, who potential buyers are.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但欧洲真的能抛售这些债务吗？欧盟如何强迫出售以及在一个日益去美元化的世界中，潜在买家是谁，都是问题。</p>
</div><p>Yesha Yadav, a professor of law and associate dean at Vanderbilt University, told Cointelegraph, “Foreign government buyers tend to be sticky, meaning that they will not easily move their holdings unless there is a serious need for them to do so.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>范德比尔特大学法学教授兼副院长耶莎·雅达夫告诉 Cointelegraph：“外国政府买家往往是粘性的，这意味着他们不会轻易转移其持有的资产，除非有严重的需要。”</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, according to the Financial Times, much US debt in Europe is not held by governments themselves, but by private entities like pension funds, banks and other institutional investors. Yadav noted that hedge funds in the UK, Luxembourg and Belgium have emerged as major buyers of US Treasurys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，金融时报指出，欧洲的大部分美国债务并不是由政府持有，而是由养老金基金、银行和其他机构投资者等私人实体持有。雅达夫指出，英国、卢森堡和比利时的对冲基金已成为美国国债的主要买家。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, even if European powers wanted to dump US debt, they’d need to compel these private buyers to sell. Yadav said that it “does not seem likely in the near term that European governments may impose restrictions on hedge funds buying US Treasurys.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使欧洲大国想要抛售美国债务，他们也需要强迫这些私人买家出售。雅达夫表示：“在短期内，欧洲政府对对冲基金购买美国国债施加限制似乎不太可能。”</p>
</div><p>SocGen’s chief FX strategist, Kit Juckes, wrote, “The situation probably needs to escalate a fair bit further before they damage their investment performance for political purposes.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>法国外贸银行首席外汇策略师基特·贾克斯写道：“在他们为了政治目的损害投资表现之前，情况可能需要进一步升级。”</p>
</div><p>However, “they may potentially think about opening up the kinds of government debt that are considered most secure as collateral,” said Yadav.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，雅达夫表示：“他们可能会考虑将被视为最安全的政府债务作为抵押品。”</p>
</div><p>The main problem is that there aren’t a lot of alternatives to US debt as a risk-off investment. Treasurys still boast a “risk-free” status and generally are highly liquid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要问题是，作为风险规避投资的替代品，除了美国债务外并没有很多选择。国债仍然享有 “无风险” 地位，并且通常流动性很高。</p>
</div><p>“Even as other highly stable and safe countries, such as Germany, begin to issue debt, their debt markets remain relatively small, such that it is very difficult to envision them ever taking the place of the US Treasury market,” said Yadav.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“即使其他高度稳定和安全的国家，如德国，开始发行债务，他们的债务市场仍然相对较小，因此很难想象它们会取代美国国债市场，” 雅达夫表示。</p>
</div><p>There’s also a paucity of potential buyers. China has been scaling back the tempo of its US debt purchases, Yadav noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>潜在买家也很稀缺。雅达夫指出，中国已在减少其美国债务购买的步伐。</p>
</div><p>Asian buyers do not have the capacity to absorb that many US assets. The market capitalization of the MSCI All-Country Asian index, which tracks large and mid-cap stocks across developing and emerging markets in Asia, is roughly $13.5 trillion. Per the Financial Times, the FTSE World Government Bond Index is about $7.3 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲买家没有能力吸收那么多美国资产。根据金融时报的数据，跟踪亚洲发展中和新兴市场的大型和中型股票的 MSCI 全国家指数的市值约为 13.5 万亿美元，而 FTSE 世界政府债券指数约为 7.3 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Rabobank’s analysts wrote, “While the US’s large current account deficit suggests that in theory there is the potential for the USD to drop should international savers stage a mass retreat from US assets, the sheer size of US capital markets suggests that such an exit may not be feasible given the limitations of alternative markets.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rabobank 的分析师写道：“尽管美国的大额经常账户赤字理论上表明，如果国际储户大规模撤出美国资产，美元可能会下跌，但美国资本市场的庞大规模表明，这种退出可能在替代市场的限制下不可行。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Stablecoins become major buyers of US debt</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>稳定币成为美国债务的主要买家</strong></p>
</div><p>One emerging major buyer of US debt is stablecoin issuers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个新兴的美国债务主要买家是稳定币发行者。</p>
</div><p>According to the GENIUS Act, the US’ landmark legislation creating a framework for stablecoins, issuers of those assets operating in the country must have dollars and US Treasurys in reserve to back their coins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 GENIUS 法案，美国的里程碑立法为稳定币创建了框架，发行这些资产的公司必须持有美元和美国国债作为其币种的储备。</p>
</div><p>“That [stablecoin issuers] are growing as fast as they are means that their need for Treasurys is correspondingly high. To the extent that this trend continues, it offers a great advantage for US policymakers, but it also deepens the link between the continuity of stablecoin issuers and that of the ability of US Treasury markets to continue remaining liquid and popular,” said Yadav.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“稳定币发行者的快速增长意味着他们对国债的需求相应地很高。只要这一趋势持续下去，这对美国政策制定者来说是一个巨大的优势，但它也加深了稳定币发行者的持续性与美国国债市场继续保持流动性和受欢迎程度之间的联系，” 雅达夫表示。</p>
</div><p>The proliferation of stablecoin issuers as a buyer for US debt doesn’t come without its risks. This, combined with fewer buyers of US debt, particularly in the event of the EU dumping or even significantly decreasing its exposure, could spell trouble for US Treasury markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稳定币发行者作为美国债务买家的激增并非没有风险。这与美国债务买家减少相结合，特别是在欧盟抛售或甚至显著减少其风险敞口的情况下，可能会给美国国债市场带来麻烦。</p>
</div><p>Yadav and Brendan Malone, who formerly worked in payments and clearing at the Federal Reserve Board, have previously noted liquidity shocks in US debt markets, both in March 2020 and April 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雅达夫和曾在美联储支付和清算部门工作的布伦丹·马龙此前曾指出，美国债务市场在 2020 年 3 月和 2025 年 4 月都经历了流动性冲击。</p>
</div><p>In the event of a run on stablecoin issuers, this lack of liquidity and growing lack of counterparties to sell to could prevent the issuer from selling off its securities. It would become insolvent and also significantly impact the credibility of US Treasury markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果稳定币发行者出现挤兑，这种流动性不足和缺乏对手方出售的情况可能会阻止发行者出售其证券。它将变得资不抵债，并对美国国债市场的信誉产生重大影响。</p>
</div><p>Economic and military escalation in an increasingly multi-polar world has created rifts between former allies. While there is hope for a dialogue between the EU and US, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs said, “We are not yet out of the woods [..] Are we in an irreversible rift? No. But there is a clear and present danger.” The danger appears not only to Europe and Greenland’s sovereignty, but to US debt markets as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日益多极化的世界中，经济和军事的升级导致了前盟友之间的裂痕。尽管欧盟和美国之间仍有对话的希望，拉脱维亚总统埃德加尔斯·林克维奇斯表示：“我们还没有走出困境 [..] 我们是否处于不可逆转的裂痕中？不。但显然存在明确而迫在眉睫的危险。” 这种危险不仅影响到欧洲和格林兰的主权，也影响到美国的债务市场。</p>
</div>

如果格陵兰的交易未能达成，欧洲会出售美国债务吗？