<p>Avalanche [AVAX] 继续吸引投资者，链上活动不断上升。</p>
<p>截至发稿时，活跃地址激增，从 30K 跃升至超过 600K，仅用一周时间。这一戏剧性的激增表明了参与度的增加和采用率的提升，反映出对去中心化金融、代币化和真实资产的更深兴趣。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_Z__wbXgAEqyLM.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_Z__wbXgAEqyLM.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>这一快速增长让人感觉 AVAX 迎来了转折点，机构投资者的兴趣可能会随之而来，进一步推动这一势头。</p>
<p>然而，尽管活动激增，期货市场条件的降温和 MACD 的减弱表明 AVAX 可能处于危险区域。问题是：AVAX 会继续攀升，还是即将面临更深的回调？</p>
<h2><strong>C-Chain 动能 – 2026 年的看涨指标？</strong></h2>
<p>Grayscale 观察到，Avalanche 的 C‑Chain 在 2025 年底获得了动能，七天内平均有 250 万次链上交易。这一增长突显了网络的长期实力，并反映出开发者和用户的兴趣日益增加。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CC.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CC.png"/></p>
<p>来源：Grayscale</p>
<p>然而，AVAX 的成功依赖于保持动能。如果这一趋势持续到 2026 年 1 月，AVAX 可能会看到强劲的回报，尤其是在市场支持的情况下。</p>
<h2><strong>评估短期泡沫风险</strong></h2>
<p>当 AVAX 的价格徘徊在 12 美元左右时，短期泡沫风险保持在 1，标志着绿色和蓝色区域。从历史上看，这种降温阶段通常会伴随急剧反弹，给投资者带来希望。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_WG8GzXkAApLYV.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_WG8GzXkAApLYV.jpg"/></p>
<p>来源：X</p>
<p>此外，期货交易量泡沫图反映了类似的趋势，表明尽管短期活动降温，但价格反转可能即将到来。绿色集群后通常会跟随中性、加热，最后是过热阶段。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Avalanche-Futures-Volume-Bubble-Map-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Avalanche-Futures-Volume-Bubble-Map-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>如果市场情绪转向看涨，AVAX 可能会为强劲反弹做好准备。</p>
<h2><strong>AVAX 价格走势和动能指标</strong></h2>
<p>截至发稿时，AVAX 在日线图上显示出经典的下降三角形模式，暗示看跌延续。</p>
<p>随着 MACD 的疲软和 RSI 接近下边界，价格可能难以维持在 11.3 美元以上的支撑。如果这一水平被突破，下降可能会延伸至 8.60 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/avaxd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/avaxd.png"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>然而，重新夺回 18-22 美元对 AVAX 来说是一个关键举动。如果市场情绪转向积极，达到 43 美元是可能的，触及下降三角形的上边界。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>Avalanche 活跃地址的激增表明了强劲的网络参与，支持 AVAX 的长期价格潜力。</em></li>
<li><em>期货交易量的降温和低短期泡沫风险表明反弹的可能性，但疲弱的动能暗示短期内可能会回调。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>Avalanche (AVAX) 的链上活动显著增加，活跃地址从 30,000 个上升到超过 600,000 个，显示出对去中心化金融（DeFi）和代币化的兴趣日益增长。然而，尽管出现了这一激增，期货市场的降温和 MACD 的减弱暗示价格可能会下跌，AVAX 可能会跌破 11 美元。价格走势显示出看跌的下降三角形模式，如果 11.3 美元的支撑位被突破，可能会跌至 8.60 美元。相反，如果重新夺回 18-22 美元的区间，可能会推动价格上涨至 43 美元，这取决于市场情绪</p>

<p>Avalanche [AVAX] continues to attract investors with rising on-chain activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Avalanche [AVAX] 继续吸引投资者，链上活动不断上升。</p>
</div><p>At press time, Active Addresses surged, jumping from 30K to over 600K in just one week. This dramatic spike signaled increased engagement and growing adoption, reflecting deeper interest in DeFi, tokenization, and RWAs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至发稿时，活跃地址激增，从 30K 跃升至超过 600K，仅用一周时间。这一戏剧性的激增表明了参与度的增加和采用率的提升，反映出对去中心化金融、代币化和真实资产的更深兴趣。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_Z__wbXgAEqyLM.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_Z__wbXgAEqyLM.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>This rapid growth felt like a turning point for AVAX, with institutional interest likely to follow and fuel the momentum further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一快速增长让人感觉 AVAX 迎来了转折点，机构投资者的兴趣可能会随之而来，进一步推动这一势头。</p>
</div><p>However, despite the surge in activity, cooling futures market conditions and a weakening MACD suggested that AVAX might be in a dangerous zone. The question remained: would AVAX continue its climb, or was a deeper pullback imminent?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，尽管活动激增，期货市场条件的降温和 MACD 的减弱表明 AVAX 可能处于危险区域。问题是：AVAX 会继续攀升，还是即将面临更深的回调？</p>
</div><h2><strong>C-Chain momentum – A bullish indicator for 2026?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>C-Chain 动能 – 2026 年的看涨指标？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Grayscale observed that Avalanche’s C‑Chain gained momentum in late 2025, averaging 2.5 million on‑chain transactions over seven days. This growth highlighted the network’s long‑term strength and reflected increasing interest from both developers and users.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Grayscale 观察到，Avalanche 的 C‑Chain 在 2025 年底获得了动能，七天内平均有 250 万次链上交易。这一增长突显了网络的长期实力，并反映出开发者和用户的兴趣日益增加。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CC.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/CC.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Grayscale</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Grayscale</p>
</div><p>However, AVAX’s success depended on maintaining momentum. If the trend continued into January 2026, AVAX could have seen strong returns, especially with market support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，AVAX 的成功依赖于保持动能。如果这一趋势持续到 2026 年 1 月，AVAX 可能会看到强劲的回报，尤其是在市场支持的情况下。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Assessing short-term bubble risk</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>评估短期泡沫风险</strong></h2>
</div><p>As AVAX’s price hovered around $12, the short-term bubble risk remained low at 1, marked by green and blue zones. Historically, such cooling phases had been followed by sharp rebounds, fueling hope among investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当 AVAX 的价格徘徊在 12 美元左右时，短期泡沫风险保持在 1，标志着绿色和蓝色区域。从历史上看，这种降温阶段通常会伴随急剧反弹，给投资者带来希望。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_WG8GzXkAApLYV.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G_WG8GzXkAApLYV.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X</p>
</div><p>Adding to this, the Futures Volume Bubble Map reflected a similar trend, suggesting that, while short-term activity cooled, a price reversal could be on the horizon. The green clusters had been followed by neutral, then heating, and finally, overheating phases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，期货交易量泡沫图反映了类似的趋势，表明尽管短期活动降温，但价格反转可能即将到来。绿色集群后通常会跟随中性、加热，最后是过热阶段。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Avalanche-Futures-Volume-Bubble-Map-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Avalanche-Futures-Volume-Bubble-Map-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>If the market sentiment had shifted toward the bulls, AVAX could have been primed for a strong recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果市场情绪转向看涨，AVAX 可能会为强劲反弹做好准备。</p>
</div><h2><strong>AVAX price action and momentum indicators</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>AVAX 价格走势和动能指标</strong></h2>
</div><p>At press time, AVAX showed a classic descending triangle pattern on the daily time frame, signaling a bearish continuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至发稿时，AVAX 在日线图上显示出经典的下降三角形模式，暗示看跌延续。</p>
</div><p>With MACD weakness and RSI near the lower boundary, the price may struggle to maintain support above $11.3. Should this level break, the decline could extend toward $8.60.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 MACD 的疲软和 RSI 接近下边界，价格可能难以维持在 11.3 美元以上的支撑。如果这一水平被突破，下降可能会延伸至 8.60 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/avaxd.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/avaxd.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, reclaiming $18-$22 was a critical move for AVAX. If the market shifted positively, reaching $43 was possible, tapping the upper line of the descending triangle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，重新夺回 18-22 美元对 AVAX 来说是一个关键举动。如果市场情绪转向积极，达到 43 美元是可能的，触及下降三角形的上边界。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最后的思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Avalanche’s surge in active addresses signals strong network engagement, supporting AVAX’s long-term price potential.</em></li>
<li><em>Cooling futures volume and low short-term bubble risk indicated a rebound, but weak momentum suggests a potential short-term pullback.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>Avalanche 活跃地址的激增表明了强劲的网络参与，支持 AVAX 的长期价格潜力。</em></li>
<li><em>期货交易量的降温和低短期泡沫风险表明反弹的可能性，但疲弱的动能暗示短期内可能会回调。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Avalanche activity surges 20x, yet AVAX could slip below $11 – How?

- Avalanche 活跃地址数量大幅上升，表明 DeFi 和 RWAs 的兴趣增长。  
- 市场情绪变化可能影响 AVAX 价格走势，短期调整风险低。  
- 再次突破 $18-$22 可能带来强劲回调潜力。

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雪崩活动激增 20 倍，但 AVAX 可能会跌破 11 美元——这是怎么回事？