<p>比特币（[BTC]）近期的价格走势突显出结构性失衡。该资产在近期高位附近震荡交易，但后续买入仍然疲软。</p>
<p>随着流动性收紧和风险偏好保持选择性，波动性持续存在。因此，资本以防御性而非激进的方式轮换进入比特币。</p>
<p>在这种背景下，链上负需求变得更加显著。</p>
<p>比特币的 30 天显性需求明显转为负值。根据 CryptoQuant 的分析，赤字加深至大约 60,000 到 80,000 BTC，确认了轻微的失衡。</p>
<p>这一变化反映了矿工和长期持有者的分配，而新买家未能吸收供应。宏观条件也起到了影响。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Bitcoin-Apparent-Demand_-30-day-sum-1-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Bitcoin-Apparent-Demand_-30-day-sum-1-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>流动性收紧和利率上升降低了风险偏好，减缓了资金流入。重要的是，这一下降并不是由于质押或故意 withholding。</p>
<p>相反，币种积极重新进入流通。因此，价格承压，处于整合和回撤状态，而非扩张。</p>
<p>在 2021-2022 周期转换期间，持续的负需求同样预示着长期下行，并限制了尽管价格暂时坚挺的反弹。</p>
<p>当前的局势与那个阶段相似，表面上的稳定掩盖了市场结构的疲弱。</p>
<p>除非需求显著恢复，否则这种模式增加了近期价格强势反映出晚周期或熊市反弹而非重新积累的风险。</p>
<p>如果现货 ETF 流入稳定或流动性放松，情况可能会缓解，这可能在几周内提供缓解，而不是持久的反转。</p>
<h2><strong>比特币 ETF 流出加剧需求疲软</strong></h2>
<p>比特币现货 ETF 流动显示资本流动与潜在需求之间的日益不匹配。</p>
<p>截至发稿时，数据显示净流出超过每周 13 亿美元，尽管总 ETF 资产高达 1159 亿美元，价格徘徊在 89,500 美元附近。</p>
<p>这种偏差与显性需求转向-67,000 BTC 赤字的新变化相吻合，确认了现货吸收疲软。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/0a30efee-506c-450d-a760-e9cd717f6340.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/0a30efee-506c-450d-a760-e9cd717f6340.png"/></p>
<p>来源：SoSoValue</p>
<p>ETF 最初通过吸收过剩的比特币供应来支持反弹。然而，最近持续出现的红色柱状图信号表明了变化。</p>
<p>ETF 活动现在反映的是分配，而非积累，表明市场行为和投资者意图的变化。历史上，类似的 ETF 流出阶段在 2021 年底之前预示着更广泛的市场疲软。</p>
<p>当前的流动表明了谨慎的情绪、风险承担和由宏观因素驱动的风险厌恶，增强了下行压力并限制了向上突破的能力。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特币的价格保持韧性，但潜在需求已显著减弱，显性需求降至-60,000 到-80,000 BTC 的赤字。</em></li>
<li><em>与此同时，持续的现货 ETF 流出超过每周 13 亿美元，正在加剧这一需求短缺，信号显示下行风险增加。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特币近期的价格走势显示出结构性失衡，交易接近高位但买入力度疲弱。负面的链上需求已经出现，30 天的明显需求赤字为 60,000 到 80,000 BTC。流动性紧缩和利率上升正在降低风险偏好，导致价格整合而非扩张。每周超过 13 亿美元的 ETF 资金流出表明从积累转向分配，反映出投资者的谨慎。除非需求恢复，否则当前的价格强势可能代表着周期末的反弹，增加下行风险</p>

<p>Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent price action highlights a structural imbalance. The asset trades range-bound near recent highs, yet follow-through buying remains weak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币（[BTC]）近期的价格走势突显出结构性失衡。该资产在近期高位附近震荡交易，但后续买入仍然疲软。</p>
</div><p>Volatility persists as liquidity tightens and risk appetite stays selective. Consequently, capital rotates defensively rather than aggressively into Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着流动性收紧和风险偏好保持选择性，波动性持续存在。因此，资本以防御性而非激进的方式轮换进入比特币。</p>
</div><p>Against this backdrop, negative on-chain demand becomes more significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种背景下，链上负需求变得更加显著。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s 30-day Apparent Demand has shifted clearly into negative territory. According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the deficit deepens to roughly 60,000 to 80,000 BTC, confirming a minor imbalance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的 30 天显性需求明显转为负值。根据 CryptoQuant 的分析，赤字加深至大约 60,000 到 80,000 BTC，确认了轻微的失衡。</p>
</div><p>This change reflects distribution by miners and long-term holders, while new buyers fail to absorb supply. Macro conditions contribute as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化反映了矿工和长期持有者的分配，而新买家未能吸收供应。宏观条件也起到了影响。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Bitcoin-Apparent-Demand_-30-day-sum-1-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Bitcoin-Apparent-Demand_-30-day-sum-1-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Tighter liquidity and elevated rates reduce risk appetite and slow inflows. Importantly, the decline is not driven by staking or intentional withholding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流动性收紧和利率上升降低了风险偏好，减缓了资金流入。重要的是，这一下降并不是由于质押或故意 withholding。</p>
</div><p>Instead, coins actively re-enter circulation. As a result, price comes under strain, consolidating and retracing rather than expanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，币种积极重新进入流通。因此，价格承压，处于整合和回撤状态，而非扩张。</p>
</div><p>During the 2021–2022 cycle transition, similarly sustained negative demand preceded prolonged downside and capped rallies despite temporary price resilience.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021-2022 周期转换期间，持续的负需求同样预示着长期下行，并限制了尽管价格暂时坚挺的反弹。</p>
</div><p>The current setup echoes that phase, where stability at the surface masked a weakening market structure underneath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前的局势与那个阶段相似，表面上的稳定掩盖了市场结构的疲弱。</p>
</div><p>Unless demand recovers meaningfully, this pattern increases the risk that recent price strength reflects a late-cycle or bear-market rally rather than renewed accumulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非需求显著恢复，否则这种模式增加了近期价格强势反映出晚周期或熊市反弹而非重新积累的风险。</p>
</div><p>The situation could ease if spot ETF inflows stabilize or liquidity loosens, likely offering relief for several weeks rather than a lasting reversal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果现货 ETF 流入稳定或流动性放松，情况可能会缓解，这可能在几周内提供缓解，而不是持久的反转。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin ETF outflows reinforce weakening demand</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特币 ETF 流出加剧需求疲软</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin spot ETF flows reveal a growing mismatch between capital movement and underlying demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币现货 ETF 流动显示资本流动与潜在需求之间的日益不匹配。</p>
</div><p>At press time, the data indicated the net outflows were more than $1.3 billion per week, although the total ETF assets stood at a high of $115.9 billion, and the price was hovering near $89,500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至发稿时，数据显示净流出超过每周 13 亿美元，尽管总 ETF 资产高达 1159 亿美元，价格徘徊在 89,500 美元附近。</p>
</div><p>Such deviation coincides with the new turn in apparent demand toward a -67,000 BTC deficit, which confirms weak spot absorption.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种偏差与显性需求转向-67,000 BTC 赤字的新变化相吻合，确认了现货吸收疲软。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/0a30efee-506c-450d-a760-e9cd717f6340.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/0a30efee-506c-450d-a760-e9cd717f6340.png"/></p>
<p>Source: SoSoValue</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：SoSoValue</p>
</div><p>ETFs initially supported rallies by absorbing excess Bitcoin supply. However, more recently, the appearance of persistent red bars signals a shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETF 最初通过吸收过剩的比特币供应来支持反弹。然而，最近持续出现的红色柱状图信号表明了变化。</p>
</div><p>Instead of accumulation, ETF activity now reflects distribution, indicating a change in market behavior and investor intent. Historically, similar ETF outflow phases in late 2021 preceded broader market weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ETF 活动现在反映的是分配，而非积累，表明市场行为和投资者意图的变化。历史上，类似的 ETF 流出阶段在 2021 年底之前预示着更广泛的市场疲软。</p>
</div><p>The current flows indicate tentative mood, risk-taking, and risk aversion driven by macro-considerations, enhancing pressure on the downside and constraining the ability to follow through with the upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前的流动表明了谨慎的情绪、风险承担和由宏观因素驱动的风险厌恶，增强了下行压力并限制了向上突破的能力。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s price remains resilient, but underlying demand has weakened materially, with apparent demand falling into a -60,000 to -80,000 BTC deficit.</em></li>
<li><em>At the same time, persistent spot ETF outflows exceeding $1.3 billion per week are amplifying this demand shortfall, signaling increasing downside risk.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特币的价格保持韧性，但潜在需求已显著减弱，显性需求降至-60,000 到-80,000 BTC 的赤字。</em></li>
<li><em>与此同时，持续的现货 ETF 流出超过每周 13 亿美元，正在加剧这一需求短缺，信号显示下行风险增加。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Bitcoin mirrors 2021 setup: Is a BTC price pullback ahead?

- 比特币价格在高位范围波动，但跟进买盘疲软。  
- 30 天的明显需求转为负值，缺口达 60,000 到 80,000 BTC。  
- 持续的 ETF 净流出增强了需求不足的风险。

比特币的走势是否与 2021 年相似：BTC 价格是否即将回调？