<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/15-0213-123-commodities-johnson-youtube-1280x720-1-1.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/15-0213-123-commodities-johnson-youtube-1280x720-1-1.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>来源</em></p>
<p>以下是我本周遇到的一些最有趣的事情。</p>
<p><strong>链接</strong></p>
<p>“滞后关税传递、劳动力供应紧缩、财政政策宽松以及金融环境宽松共同创造了一个宏观环境，在这个环境中，到 2026 年底通胀率超过 4% 不仅是合理的，而且可以说是最可能的情景，” 彼得·奥尔扎格和亚当·波森表示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.45.46-PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.45.46-PM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>图表</strong></p>
<p>通胀压力的回归是金属市场已经在警告的事情。“ breakeven 通胀与金属价格之间的差距依然存在。金属价格会下跌，还是 breakeven 通胀会上升？”《每日快讯》问道。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigaivxze35lxr7n4mabx3vinyito5h567efmqg2gyd3vdttj3rnoi.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigaivxze35lxr7n4mabx3vinyito5h567efmqg2gyd3vdttj3rnoi.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>链接</strong></p>
<p>与此同时，股市越来越容易受到资产泡沫破裂的影响。正如科里·多克托罗所写，“人工智能是一个泡沫，它将破裂。大多数公司将失败。大多数数据中心将关闭或出售零件……正如斯坦因法则所说：‘任何不能永远持续的事物最终都会停止。’”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.06-PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.06-PM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>图表</strong></p>
<p>因此，“这是一个完美的环境，让商品在金融资产中实现代际超越。硬资产在实际价值上攀升，而以越来越贬值、无担保货币计价的股票和债券则进一步落后，” 西蒙·怀特写道。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreid2bnfji3b6x7f44pbllezb653e6fky24hfcvbcdmtqmlyqgcjgka.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreid2bnfji3b6x7f44pbllezb653e6fky24hfcvbcdmtqmlyqgcjgka.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>链接</strong></p>
<p>由于金属已经在某种程度上折价这些动态，今天真正的机会可能在于尚未这样做的商品。“我们可能生活在一个 ‘以防万一’ 的世界，但大多数交易者仍然对石油持有 ‘及时’ 的看法，他们似乎假设未来没有麻烦，” 拉娜·福罗哈写道。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.31-PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.31-PM.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>任何人都可以在这个行业中学习到的最强有力的教训</p>
<p>被厌恶的股票在哪里？</p>
<p>沃伦·巴菲特传奇成功的秘密</p>

<p>当前的宏观环境以通货膨胀上升、劳动力供应紧缩和财政政策宽松为特征，被视为有利于商品表现优于金融资产。专家建议，到 2026 年，通货膨胀可能超过 4%，这将影响金属价格和盈亏平衡通胀。对潜在股市泡沫的担忧，特别是在人工智能领域，进一步支持了对实物资产的看法。由于商品预计在实际价值上将增值，交易者可能需要调整对石油和其他商品的看法</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/15-0213-123-commodities-johnson-youtube-1280x720-1-1.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/15-0213-123-commodities-johnson-youtube-1280x720-1-1.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源</em></p>
</div><p>Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是我本周遇到的一些最有趣的事情。</p>
</div><p><strong>LINK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>链接</strong></p>
</div><p>“Together, lagged tariff pass‑through, tightening labor supply, looser fiscal policy, and accommodative financial conditions create a macro environment in which inflation rising above 4% by the end of 2026 is not only plausible but arguably the most likely scenario,” argue Peter Orszag and Adam Posen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“滞后关税传递、劳动力供应紧缩、财政政策宽松以及金融环境宽松共同创造了一个宏观环境，在这个环境中，到 2026 年底通胀率超过 4% 不仅是合理的，而且可以说是最可能的情景，” 彼得·奥尔扎格和亚当·波森表示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.45.46-PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.45.46-PM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>CHART</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>图表</strong></p>
</div><p>The return of inflationary pressures is something the metals markets are already warning about. “The gap between breakeven inflation and metal prices persists. Will metal prices fall, or will breakeven inflation rise?” asks The Daily Shot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀压力的回归是金属市场已经在警告的事情。“ breakeven 通胀与金属价格之间的差距依然存在。金属价格会下跌，还是 breakeven 通胀会上升？”《每日快讯》问道。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigaivxze35lxr7n4mabx3vinyito5h567efmqg2gyd3vdttj3rnoi.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigaivxze35lxr7n4mabx3vinyito5h567efmqg2gyd3vdttj3rnoi.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>LINK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>链接</strong></p>
</div><p>At the same time, the stock market is increasingly vulnerable to a bursting asset bubble. As Cory Doctorow writes, “AI is a bubble and it will burst. Most of the companies will fail. Most of the datacenters will be shuttered or sold for parts… As Stein’s law has it: ‘Anything that can’t go on forever eventually stops.'”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，股市越来越容易受到资产泡沫破裂的影响。正如科里·多克托罗所写，“人工智能是一个泡沫，它将破裂。大多数公司将失败。大多数数据中心将关闭或出售零件……正如斯坦因法则所说：‘任何不能永远持续的事物最终都会停止。’”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.06-PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.06-PM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>CHART</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>图表</strong></p>
</div><p>As such, “It’s the perfect environment for commodities to forge a generational outperformance over financial assets. Hard assets climb in real terms, while stocks and bonds, denominated in increasingly debauched, unbacked currencies, fall further behind,” writes Simon White.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，“这是一个完美的环境，让商品在金融资产中实现代际超越。硬资产在实际价值上攀升，而以越来越贬值、无担保货币计价的股票和债券则进一步落后，” 西蒙·怀特写道。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreid2bnfji3b6x7f44pbllezb653e6fky24hfcvbcdmtqmlyqgcjgka.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreid2bnfji3b6x7f44pbllezb653e6fky24hfcvbcdmtqmlyqgcjgka.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>LINK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>链接</strong></p>
</div><p>With metals already discounting these dynamics to some degree, the real opportunity today may be in commodities that have yet to do so. “We may be living in a ‘just in case’ world but most traders still have a ‘just in time’ view on oil, and they seem to assume there is no trouble on the horizon,” writes Rana Foroohar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于金属已经在某种程度上折价这些动态，今天真正的机会可能在于尚未这样做的商品。“我们可能生活在一个 ‘以防万一’ 的世界，但大多数交易者仍然对石油持有 ‘及时’ 的看法，他们似乎假设未来没有麻烦，” 拉娜·福罗哈写道。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.31-PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-23-at-12.46.31-PM.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>The Most Powerful Lesson Anyone Can Learn In This Business</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何人都可以在这个行业中学习到的最强有力的教训</p>
</div><p>Where Are The Hated Stocks?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>被厌恶的股票在哪里？</p>
</div><p>The Secret Of Warren Buffett’s Storied Success</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特传奇成功的秘密</p>
</div>

大宗商品超常表现的理想环境