<p><strong>曾经主导投资者投资组合的主要科技公司正在目睹其市场价值崩溃，因为人工智能工具的崛起威胁着重塑商业运作方式。</strong></p>
<p>软件行业的大牌公司最近在股市上遭受重创。Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 自去年初以来各自损失超过 30% 的市值。一个追踪较小软件企业的指数在同一时期内下跌超过 20%。</p>
<p>本月，下降速度加快。这发生在 Anthropic 推出 Claude Code 之后，这是一款专家称可以大幅缩短创建复杂软件程序所需时间的 AI 程序。这项技术引发了对所谓 “氛围编码” 的担忧，即 AI 系统快速生成应用程序和网站。</p>
<p>“叙事确实发生了转变，” RBC Capital Markets 的软件公司分析师 Rishi Jaluria 说道。</p>
<p>根据 Jaluria 的说法，市场情绪发生了剧烈变化。最初，投资者认为软件公司会从 AI 发展中受益。现在他们提出了一个不同的问题：“AI 是否只是软件的终结？”</p>
<p>接下来的几天将提供更多关于科技整体健康状况的线索。苹果、Meta Platforms 和微软计划发布财报。美联储也计划召开会议，尽管预计不会对利率进行调整。</p>
<p>这一逆转标志着一个曾在几年前主导华尔街关注的行业的惊人转变。</p>
<h3>软件繁荣的过去</h3>
<p>在 2010 年代，软件似乎实现了 Marc Andreessen 的预测，即它将 “吞噬世界”。快速的互联网连接和云计算推动了扩张。公司可以从像 Amazon.com 这样的提供商租用存储，而不是维护自己的数据中心。新的软件企业在各地涌现。</p>
<p>它们解决了从瑜伽工作室调度和支付处理到企业网络安全防御的各种问题。</p>
<p>华尔街对该行业的看法完全转变。曾被视为风险的领域，软件获得了可靠性的声誉。公司在将产品整合到其运营后很少更换产品。长期订阅协议带来了可预测的收入流。投资者对此高度重视。</p>
<p>股价急剧上涨。该行业吸引了大量借贷资金，私募股权公司争相收购公司。疫情期间的远程工作需求使繁荣加速。利率下降使借贷成本降低，进一步助长了这一趋势。</p>
<p>当利率在 2022 年上升，员工重返办公室时，情况开始发生变化。</p>
<p>资助软件收购的贷款人开始看到裂痕。竞争加剧。负债沉重的公司开始挣扎。</p>
<p>在 2020 年之前，软件贷款违约几乎是未知的。这部分是因为对这些公司的贷款相对较新。然而，根据 PitchBook LCD 的数据，在过去两年中，有 13 家软件企业未能履行其债务义务。这包括破产和庭外债务重组。</p>
<p>Quest 体现了这些挑战。该公司开发 OneLogin 软件用于员工身份验证。Clearlake Capital 在 2022 年初以 36 亿美元的投资者贷款收购了 Quest。尽管受益于远程工作趋势，但 Quest 在面临竞争对手 Okta 的压力下，因债务负担而陷入困境。该公司在去年六月与贷款人达成了重组协议。</p>
<h3>投资者谨慎加剧</h3>
<p>软件贷款的违约率总体上仍低于收购贷款的违约率。投资者并没有完全撤离。但根据 PitchBook LCD 数据，投资者对持有软件贷款所要求的溢价在过去 15 个月中有所上升。尽管整体贷款溢价有所下降。</p>
<p>“投资者基础显然对这些软件公司进行了更为严格的审查，” Seix Investment Advisors 的投资组合经理 Vince Flanagan 说道。</p>
<p>AI 的出现加深了这种谨慎。主要风险包括来自新进入者的竞争以及公司自行开发软件而不是支付外部供应商的费用。</p>
<p>大多数分析师并不认为软件公司会很快消失。更直接的担忧是收入增长放缓，Jaluria 解释道。客户正在测试替代方案，而不是购买典型的升级和附加产品。</p>
<p>Jaluria 认为 AI 可能会伤害 “肥胖、懒惰的 incumbents”，同时帮助那些利用 AI 来增强其产品的创新公司。</p>
<h3>对 AI 未来的疑问增加了不确定性</h3>
<p>AI 热情最近推动股票创下新高。但投资者对支持哪些与 AI 相关的公司变得更加挑剔。</p>
<p>公司正在为 AI 基础设施项目大量借款。贷款人正在谨慎行事。他们对 Meta 和 Oracle 等大额支出者要求更高的利息支付，相对于其信用质量。</p>
<p>投资者正在提出严峻的问题，他补充道。“这些投资是可持续的吗？它们会盈利吗？会有现金流吗，还是不会？”</p>
<p>在关键地方被看到。请在 Cryptopolitan Research 上做广告，接触加密领域最敏锐的投资者和建设者。</p>

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<p>自去年初以来，Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 的市值已下降超过 30%，因为人工智能工具的崛起正在重塑商业运营。较小软件公司的指数也下降了超过 20%。在 Anthropic 推出 Claude Code 后，下降趋势加速，引发了人们对人工智能对软件开发影响的担忧。市场情绪已从对人工智能好处的乐观转向对其可能扰乱软件行业的恐惧。投资者现在更加谨慎，在竞争加剧和收入增长预期变化的背景下，仔细审视软件公司</p>

<p><strong>Major technology firms that once dominated investor portfolios are watching their market value crumble as the rise of artificial intelligence tools threatens to reshape how businesses operate.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>曾经主导投资者投资组合的主要科技公司正在目睹其市场价值崩溃，因为人工智能工具的崛起威胁着重塑商业运作方式。</strong></p>
</div><p>Big names in the software industry have taken a beating on stock markets recently. Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow have each lost more than 30% of their value since early last year. An index tracking smaller software businesses has dropped over 20% during the same stretch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软件行业的大牌公司最近在股市上遭受重创。Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 自去年初以来各自损失超过 30% 的市值。一个追踪较小软件企业的指数在同一时期内下跌超过 20%。</p>
</div><p>The decline picked up speed this month. That happened after Anthropic launched Claude Code, an AI program that experts say can drastically cut down the time needed to create complicated software programs. The technology has sparked concerns about something called “vibe coding,” where AI systems rapidly generate applications and websites.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月，下降速度加快。这发生在 Anthropic 推出 Claude Code 之后，这是一款专家称可以大幅缩短创建复杂软件程序所需时间的 AI 程序。这项技术引发了对所谓 “氛围编码” 的担忧，即 AI 系统快速生成应用程序和网站。</p>
</div><p>“The narrative has really shifted,” said Rishi Jaluria, who analyzes software companies for RBC Capital Markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“叙事确实发生了转变，” RBC Capital Markets 的软件公司分析师 Rishi Jaluria 说道。</p>
</div><p>Market sentiment has swung dramatically, according to Jaluria. Initially, investors believed software firms would gain from AI developments. Now they’re asking a different question: “Is AI just the death of software?”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Jaluria 的说法，市场情绪发生了剧烈变化。最初，投资者认为软件公司会从 AI 发展中受益。现在他们提出了一个不同的问题：“AI 是否只是软件的终结？”</p>
</div><p>The coming days will offer more clues about technology’s broader health. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are scheduled to release earnings reports. The Federal Reserve also has a meeting planned, though no changes to interest rates are anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来的几天将提供更多关于科技整体健康状况的线索。苹果、Meta Platforms 和微软计划发布财报。美联储也计划召开会议，尽管预计不会对利率进行调整。</p>
</div><p>The reversal marks a stunning turnabout for an industry that dominated Wall Street attention just a few years back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一逆转标志着一个曾在几年前主导华尔街关注的行业的惊人转变。</p>
</div><h3>The software boom that was</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>软件繁荣的过去</h3>
</div><p>Throughout the 2010s, software appeared to fulfill Marc Andreessen’s prediction that it would “eat the world.” Fast internet connections and cloud computing powered the expansion. Companies could rent storage from providers like Amazon.com instead of maintaining their own data centers.New software ventures sprouted up everywhere</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2010 年代，软件似乎实现了 Marc Andreessen 的预测，即它将 “吞噬世界”。快速的互联网连接和云计算推动了扩张。公司可以从像 Amazon.com 这样的提供商租用存储，而不是维护自己的数据中心。新的软件企业在各地涌现。</p>
</div><p>They tackled everything from yoga studio scheduling and payment processing to corporate cybersecurity defense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它们解决了从瑜伽工作室调度和支付处理到企业网络安全防御的各种问题。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street’s view of the sector transformed completely. Once considered risky, software earned a reputation for dependability. Companies rarely switched products after integrating them into their operations. Long-term subscription deals brought predictable income streams. Investors valued that highly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街对该行业的看法完全转变。曾被视为风险的领域，软件获得了可靠性的声誉。公司在将产品整合到其运营后很少更换产品。长期订阅协议带来了可预测的收入流。投资者对此高度重视。</p>
</div><p>Stock prices climbed sharply. The sector attracted floods of borrowed money as private equity firms rushed to buy companies. Remote work requirements during the pandemic sent the boom into overdrive. Falling interest rates made borrowing cheaper, which added fuel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价急剧上涨。该行业吸引了大量借贷资金，私募股权公司争相收购公司。疫情期间的远程工作需求使繁荣加速。利率下降使借贷成本降低，进一步助长了这一趋势。</p>
</div><p>Things started changing when rates climbed in 2022, and workers returned to offices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当利率在 2022 年上升，员工重返办公室时，情况开始发生变化。</p>
</div><p>Lenders who had funded software acquisitions began seeing cracks. Competition intensified. Companies carrying heavy debt loads started struggling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资助软件收购的贷款人开始看到裂痕。竞争加剧。负债沉重的公司开始挣扎。</p>
</div><p>Software loan defaults were virtually unknown before 2020. That was partly because lending to such companies was relatively new. Over the past two years, however, 13 software businesses have failed to meet their debt obligations, according to PitchBook LCD. That includes both bankruptcies and out-of-court debt restructurings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 年之前，软件贷款违约几乎是未知的。这部分是因为对这些公司的贷款相对较新。然而，根据 PitchBook LCD 的数据，在过去两年中，有 13 家软件企业未能履行其债务义务。这包括破产和庭外债务重组。</p>
</div><p>Quest exemplifies the challenges. The company makes OneLogin software for employee authentication. Clearlake Capital purchased Quest in early 2022 using $3.6 billion in investor loans. Despite benefiting from remote work trends, Quest buckled under its debt burden while facing competition from Okta, a larger rival. The company reached a restructuring agreement with lenders last June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Quest 体现了这些挑战。该公司开发 OneLogin 软件用于员工身份验证。Clearlake Capital 在 2022 年初以 36 亿美元的投资者贷款收购了 Quest。尽管受益于远程工作趋势，但 Quest 在面临竞争对手 Okta 的压力下，因债务负担而陷入困境。该公司在去年六月与贷款人达成了重组协议。</p>
</div><h3>Growing investor caution</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>投资者谨慎加剧</h3>
</div><p>Default rates for software loans remain below those for buyout loans overall. Investors haven’t fled entirely. But the premium that investors demand for holding software loans above benchmark rates has climbed over the past 15 months. That’s happened even as overall loan premiums edged downward, according to PitchBook LCD data seen by WSJ.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>软件贷款的违约率总体上仍低于收购贷款的违约率。投资者并没有完全撤离。但根据 PitchBook LCD 数据，投资者对持有软件贷款所要求的溢价在过去 15 个月中有所上升。尽管整体贷款溢价有所下降。</p>
</div><p>“The investor base is definitely scrutinizing these software names much more closely,” said Vince Flanagan, who manages portfolios at Seix Investment Advisors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“投资者基础显然对这些软件公司进行了更为严格的审查，” Seix Investment Advisors 的投资组合经理 Vince Flanagan 说道。</p>
</div><p>AI’s emergence has deepened the caution. The main dangers include fresh competition from newcomers and companies building their own software instead of paying outside vendors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 的出现加深了这种谨慎。主要风险包括来自新进入者的竞争以及公司自行开发软件而不是支付外部供应商的费用。</p>
</div><p>Most analysts don’t expect software companies to vanish soon. The more immediate worry is slower revenue growth, Jaluria explained. Customers are testing alternatives rather than buying typical upgrades and extras.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数分析师并不认为软件公司会很快消失。更直接的担忧是收入增长放缓，Jaluria 解释道。客户正在测试替代方案，而不是购买典型的升级和附加产品。</p>
</div><p>Jaluria believes AI could hurt “fat, lazy incumbents” while helping innovative companies that use AI to enhance their offerings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Jaluria 认为 AI 可能会伤害 “肥胖、懒惰的 incumbents”，同时帮助那些利用 AI 来增强其产品的创新公司。</p>
</div><h3>Questions about AI’s future add to the uncertainty</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>对 AI 未来的疑问增加了不确定性</h3>
</div><p>AI enthusiasm has pushed stocks to records recently. But investors have become pickier about which AI-related companies to back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI 热情最近推动股票创下新高。但投资者对支持哪些与 AI 相关的公司变得更加挑剔。</p>
</div><p>Firms are borrowing heavily for AI infrastructure projects. Lenders are proceeding carefully. They’re demanding higher interest payments from big spenders like Meta and Oracle relative to their credit quality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司正在为 AI 基础设施项目大量借款。贷款人正在谨慎行事。他们对 Meta 和 Oracle 等大额支出者要求更高的利息支付，相对于其信用质量。</p>
</div><p>Investors are asking hard questions, he added. “Are these investments sustainable? Are they going to be profitable? Are there going to be cash flows, or will there not be?”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者正在提出严峻的问题，他补充道。“这些投资是可持续的吗？它们会盈利吗？会有现金流吗，还是不会？”</p>
</div><p>Get seen where it counts. Advertise in Cryptopolitan Research and reach crypto’s sharpest investors and builders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在关键地方被看到。请在 Cryptopolitan Research 上做广告，接触加密领域最敏锐的投资者和建设者。</p>
</div>

Salesforce, Adobe, and ServiceNow have lost over 30% of their value since 2025

- 主要科技公司市场价值下滑，受到人工智能工具崛起的威胁。  
- Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 自去年以来市值下降超过 30%。  
- 投资者对软件公司未来增速的担忧加剧，转向探讨 AI 竞争带来的影响。

自 2025 年以来，Salesforce、Adobe 和 ServiceNow 的市值已经缩水超过 30%