<p>作者：杨晨，华尔街洞察</p>
<p>在黄金价格突破 5000 美元、股市持续繁荣以及美元走弱的背景下，比特币曾被视为动量交易和对抗货币贬值的工具，但在这场盛宴中却缺席了。</p>
<p>在避险吸引力方面，加密货币对投资者的吸引力不如黄金，而在风险性方面又不如人工智能，其对资本的吸引力在当前市场阶段正在下降。</p>
<p><strong>比特币价格停滞不前，交易量疲软，长期信仰者转向股票和贵金属等更可靠的市场。</strong> 比特币目前徘徊在 87000 美元左右，比 10 月份的高点下跌了 25%，在过去七天内更是损失了 6%。</p>
<p>... 根据彭博社的数据，投资者在过去一周从与比特币相关的基金中撤回了超过 13 亿美元，继续从加密货币 ETF 中撤资的趋势。从理论上讲，目前的宏观经济环境应该对加密货币有利。通胀和利率的缓解通常会提升风险偏好，而宽松的金融环境和上升的地缘政治不确定性历来支持被视为对抗货币贬值的资产。然而，这一次，比特币的价格并没有得到有效支持。资金正在寻求替代避风港。在避险资产方面，贵金属吸引了资金流入，投资者将其视为应对地缘政治风险和美元走弱的避风港。在风险资产方面，受人工智能需求驱动，股票每股收益显著改善，科技股持续上涨。相比之下，加密货币的避险性不如黄金，风险规避性也不如人工智能，其对资本的吸引力在当前市场阶段正在下降。摩根大通上周的一份报告指出，广泛的股票 ETF 正经历创纪录的资金流入，而加密货币市场则面临资金流出。FRNT Financial Inc.的首席执行官兼联合创始人斯特凡·奥莱特表示：“考虑到这些动态，确实是行业的艰难时刻。加密货币现在面临许多竞争主题——从创新的角度来看，人工智能在过去一年吸引了大量投资，而加密货币现在被排除在通胀交易之外。我认为，比特币需要向参与者证明，它至少可以在 100,000 美元以上交易，才能使牛市有意义的延续。” 这种谨慎不仅体现在价格上。CryptoQuant 的链上数据表明，自 2023 年以来，比特币持有者首次进入了净实现亏损阶段。即使没有现货价格崩溃，越来越多的投资者也在削减损失并退出，表明信心减弱。比特币的未平仓合约远低于 10 月份抛售前的水平，当时近 200 亿美元的市值被抹去。根据 Coinglass 的数据，小型代币的期货合约甚至出现了更大的下降。这种谨慎很大程度上可以追溯到去年秋季初开始的抛售，当时大规模清算抹去了数十亿美元的加密货币财富，甚至影响了经验丰富的参与者。许多散户投资者选择退出，而不是在加密货币市场内进行轮换。这种停滞既是金融上的，也是概念上的。曾经定义散户加密货币持有基础的持有理念已经减弱。从 NFT 到迷因代币，曾吸引新参与者进入生态系统的投机周期要么崩溃，要么失去信誉。一些投机需求已转向其他地方。预测平台 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的交易量正在上升，去中心化合约交易平台 Hyperliquid 也在快速增长，所有这些都吸引了曾推动加密货币上涨的同一群交易者。比特币的宏观对冲地位受到质疑 比特币近期相较于黄金的显著表现不佳，引发了其作为宏观对冲工具地位的质疑。即使全球紧张局势升级，比特币这一常被称为数字黄金的资产依然停滞不前。杜克大学教授卡姆·哈维在 10 月份的回调后写道：“比特币不太可能取代黄金成为投资者首选的避险资产。” 花旗集团和加密货币公司 Tagus Capital 的分析师最近也达成了类似的结论，指出比特币的通胀对冲功能充其量是偶尔的——更受流动性、风险偏好和科技股流动的影响，而不是与疲弱美元或地缘政治压力的持久联系。剩下的是一个较弱、较安静的加密市场，仍在运作，但越来越脱离早期的紧迫感和潜力。尽管加密行业之前经历过长期的停滞和显著的回调，但在几乎所有其他资产类别都上涨的这一年中，其缺席尤为显著。</p>

<p>零售投资者正将关注点从比特币转向黄金和白银，因为比特币面临困境，目前交易价格约为 87,000 美元，比 10 月份的高点下跌了 25%。上周，从与比特币相关的基金中撤回了超过 13 亿美元，反映出对加密货币的兴趣正在下降。尽管宏观经济条件有利，比特币作为避险资产的吸引力正在减弱，许多投资者选择了股票和贵金属。分析师质疑比特币作为宏观对冲工具的地位，认为它可能无法取代黄金成为首选的避险资产</p>

<p>Author: Yang Chen, Wall Street Insights</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：杨晨，华尔街洞察</p>
</div><p>Amidst gold prices breaking $5,000, a continued stock market boom, and a weakening dollar, Bitcoin, once seen as a tool for momentum trading and hedging against currency devaluation, has been absent from this feast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在黄金价格突破 5000 美元、股市持续繁荣以及美元走弱的背景下，比特币曾被视为动量交易和对抗货币贬值的工具，但在这场盛宴中却缺席了。</p>
</div><p>Cryptocurrencies are less attractive to investors than gold in terms of safe-haven appeal and less risky than AI, and their appeal to capital is declining in the current market phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在避险吸引力方面，加密货币对投资者的吸引力不如黄金，而在风险性方面又不如人工智能，其对资本的吸引力在当前市场阶段正在下降。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin prices have stagnated, trading volume is sluggish, and long-term believers are turning to more reliable markets such as stocks and precious metals.</strong> Bitcoin is currently hovering around $87,000, down 25% from its October high, and has lost 6% in just the past seven days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币价格停滞不前，交易量疲软，长期信仰者转向股票和贵金属等更可靠的市场。</strong> 比特币目前徘徊在 87000 美元左右，比 10 月份的高点下跌了 25%，在过去七天内更是损失了 6%。</p>
</div><p>... According to Bloomberg data, investors withdrew over $1.3 billion from Bitcoin-related funds in the past week, continuing the trend of withdrawals from cryptocurrency ETFs. Theoretically, the current macroeconomic environment should be favorable for cryptocurrencies. Easing inflation and interest rates typically boost risk appetite, while loose financial conditions and rising geopolitical uncertainty have historically supported assets touted as hedges against currency devaluation. However, this time, the price of BTC has not received effective support. Funds are seeking alternative havens. On the safe-haven asset side, precious metals are attracting inflows, with investors seeking them as a safe haven from geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar. On the risk asset side, driven by AI demand, stock EPS has improved significantly, and tech stocks continue to see increased gains. In contrast, cryptocurrencies are less safe-haven than gold and less risk-averse than AI, and their appeal to capital is declining in the current market phase. A JPMorgan report last week noted that broad-based equity ETFs are seeing the largest inflows on record, while the cryptocurrency market is experiencing outflows. &#34;Given these dynamics, this is indeed a difficult time for the industry,&#34; said Stephane Ouellette, CEO and co-founder of FRNT Financial Inc. &#34;Cryptocurrencies are now facing many competing themes—from an innovation perspective, artificial intelligence has attracted a lot of investment over the past year, while cryptocurrencies are now excluded from inflation trading. I think Bitcoin needs to prove to participants that it can trade at least above $100,000 for the bull market to have a meaningful continuation.&#34; This caution is not only reflected in prices. CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows that Bitcoin holders have entered a net realized loss phase for the first time since 2023. Even without a spot price crash, more investors are cutting their losses and exiting, indicating waning confidence. Bitcoin open interest is far below pre-October sell-off levels, when nearly $20 billion in market capitalization was wiped out. Futures contracts for smaller tokens have seen even larger declines, according to Coinglass data. Much of this caution dates back to the sell-off that began in early last fall, when a massive liquidation wiped out billions of dollars in cryptocurrency wealth, impacting even seasoned participants. Many retail investors have opted to exit rather than rotate within the cryptocurrency market. This stagnation is both financial and conceptual. The holding philosophy that once defined the foundation of retail cryptocurrency holdings has weakened. From NFTs to meme tokens, the speculative cycles that brought new participants into the ecosystem have either collapsed or lost credibility. Some speculative demand has shifted elsewhere. Trading volumes are rising on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, and decentralized contract trading platform Hyperliquid is also experiencing rapid growth, all attracting the same group of traders who once drove the rise of cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's Macro Hedging Status Questioned Bitcoin's recent significant underperformance compared to gold has raised questions about its status as a macro hedging tool. Even with escalating global tensions, Bitcoin, often described as digital gold, remains stagnant. &#34;Bitcoin is unlikely to replace gold as the preferred safe-haven asset for investors,&#34; wrote Duke University professor Cam Harvey after the October pullback. Analysts at Citigroup and cryptocurrency firm Tagus Capital recently reached similar conclusions, noting that Bitcoin's inflation-hedging function is at best sporadic—more influenced by liquidity, risk appetite, and tech stock flows than by a lasting link to a weak dollar or geopolitical pressures. What remains is a weaker, quieter crypto market, still functioning but increasingly detached from its earlier sense of urgency and potential. While the crypto sector has previously experienced prolonged periods of stagnation and significant pullbacks, its absence is particularly striking in a year where almost all other asset classes have risen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>... 根据彭博社的数据，投资者在过去一周从与比特币相关的基金中撤回了超过 13 亿美元，继续从加密货币 ETF 中撤资的趋势。从理论上讲，目前的宏观经济环境应该对加密货币有利。通胀和利率的缓解通常会提升风险偏好，而宽松的金融环境和上升的地缘政治不确定性历来支持被视为对抗货币贬值的资产。然而，这一次，比特币的价格并没有得到有效支持。资金正在寻求替代避风港。在避险资产方面，贵金属吸引了资金流入，投资者将其视为应对地缘政治风险和美元走弱的避风港。在风险资产方面，受人工智能需求驱动，股票每股收益显著改善，科技股持续上涨。相比之下，加密货币的避险性不如黄金，风险规避性也不如人工智能，其对资本的吸引力在当前市场阶段正在下降。摩根大通上周的一份报告指出，广泛的股票 ETF 正经历创纪录的资金流入，而加密货币市场则面临资金流出。FRNT Financial Inc.的首席执行官兼联合创始人斯特凡·奥莱特表示：“考虑到这些动态，确实是行业的艰难时刻。加密货币现在面临许多竞争主题——从创新的角度来看，人工智能在过去一年吸引了大量投资，而加密货币现在被排除在通胀交易之外。我认为，比特币需要向参与者证明，它至少可以在 100,000 美元以上交易，才能使牛市有意义的延续。” 这种谨慎不仅体现在价格上。CryptoQuant 的链上数据表明，自 2023 年以来，比特币持有者首次进入了净实现亏损阶段。即使没有现货价格崩溃，越来越多的投资者也在削减损失并退出，表明信心减弱。比特币的未平仓合约远低于 10 月份抛售前的水平，当时近 200 亿美元的市值被抹去。根据 Coinglass 的数据，小型代币的期货合约甚至出现了更大的下降。这种谨慎很大程度上可以追溯到去年秋季初开始的抛售，当时大规模清算抹去了数十亿美元的加密货币财富，甚至影响了经验丰富的参与者。许多散户投资者选择退出，而不是在加密货币市场内进行轮换。这种停滞既是金融上的，也是概念上的。曾经定义散户加密货币持有基础的持有理念已经减弱。从 NFT 到迷因代币，曾吸引新参与者进入生态系统的投机周期要么崩溃，要么失去信誉。一些投机需求已转向其他地方。预测平台 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 的交易量正在上升，去中心化合约交易平台 Hyperliquid 也在快速增长，所有这些都吸引了曾推动加密货币上涨的同一群交易者。比特币的宏观对冲地位受到质疑 比特币近期相较于黄金的显著表现不佳，引发了其作为宏观对冲工具地位的质疑。即使全球紧张局势升级，比特币这一常被称为数字黄金的资产依然停滞不前。杜克大学教授卡姆·哈维在 10 月份的回调后写道：“比特币不太可能取代黄金成为投资者首选的避险资产。” 花旗集团和加密货币公司 Tagus Capital 的分析师最近也达成了类似的结论，指出比特币的通胀对冲功能充其量是偶尔的——更受流动性、风险偏好和科技股流动的影响，而不是与疲弱美元或地缘政治压力的持久联系。剩下的是一个较弱、较安静的加密市场，仍在运作，但越来越脱离早期的紧迫感和潜力。尽管加密行业之前经历过长期的停滞和显著的回调，但在几乎所有其他资产类别都上涨的这一年中，其缺席尤为显著。</p>
</div>

散户投资者纷纷涌向黄金和白银，而比特币则被抛弃