<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/risto-ristov/user_content/ckimages/orig_timothy-newman-itz_guchht0-unsplash.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/risto-ristov/user_content/ckimages/orig_timothy-newman-itz_guchht0-unsplash.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>照片由 Timothy Newman 提供，来源于 Unsplash</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源 – 美国液化天然气工厂减少天然气摄入</strong></h3>
<p>美国天然气价格在昨天继续上涨，前一个月的亨利中心价格收于每百万英热单位 $6.80，涨幅接近 29%。自 1 月 19 日以来，总涨幅接近 120%。然而，当观察到现货亨利中心价格在最近几天短暂突破 $30/MMBtu 时，美国天然气的涨幅显得更加惊人。这是由于美国范围内的严重冬季风暴所驱动，影响了天然气生产并提升了取暖需求。预计这场风暴对美国天然气生产的影响约为 11%。显然，展望的关键问题是这种干扰会持续多久。有迹象表明，生产已经开始恢复，预计昨天的二叠纪地区天然气产量日增 11%。如果这一趋势持续下去，价格可能已经达到峰值。</p>
<p>美国天然气市场的发展仍然让欧洲市场感到担忧，因为供应中断可能会影响美国液化天然气对欧洲的出口。最近几天，美国液化天然气工厂显著减少了天然气摄入，估计下降约 48%，这将导致这些工厂的液化天然气出口减少。TTF 继续以健康的溢价交易于亚洲液化天然气，以确保液化天然气货物流入欧洲，而欧洲的储存水平现在已降至 45% 以下。越来越可能的是，储存将在 25/26 供暖季结束时低于 25% 的水平。这也低于 2022 年的水平。2022 年与 2026 年的区别在于，我们目前看到液化天然气供应显著增加，这在一定程度上应该有助于缓解供应担忧。</p>
<p>油价昨天收低，ICE 布伦特原油下跌超过 0.4%。美国的冬季风暴也应支持取暖燃料的需求，这在取暖油裂解价差中有所体现。严寒天气将干扰美国的石油产出。天气也影响了炼油厂的运营。因此，炼油厂的开工率在最近几天有所下降。</p>
<p>还有迹象表明，美国与新任委内瑞拉领导人之间的蜜月期可能即将结束，委内瑞拉总统德尔西·罗德里格斯表示，委内瑞拉已经厌倦了美国的干涉。虽然这些评论可能更多是为了内部消费，但它们确实值得关注，因为它们可能会改变对委内瑞拉石油供应的展望。</p>
<p>哈萨克斯坦的石油产量预计将恢复，Tengizchevroil 正在恢复其 Tengiz 油田的电力供应。由于电力问题，Tengiz 和 Korolev 油田的运营在 2025 年前三个季度停滞，产量约为 890,000 桶/日。与此同时，CPC 终端的维修工作完成也应支持出口流量的恢复。这些流量的恢复应改善即期市场的可用性，给布伦特即期价差施加一些压力，该价差在 1 月份显著走强。时差的强劲与对大量石油过剩的预估相悖。</p>
<h3><strong>金属 - 白银再次突破 $110/盎司的纪录</strong></h3>
<p>白银在其自 2008 年以来最大的一天涨幅中上涨超过 12%，创下 $110/盎司以上的新纪录，随后回吐了一部分涨幅。这一上涨反映了其作为贵金属的吸引力和日益紧张的实物条件：库存仍然较低，租赁费率高企，市场又进入了供应赤字的一年。价格年初至今上涨约 60%，在 2025 年几乎上涨了 150%。然而，风险依然存在，高价格可能会引发工业需求的破坏，而白银的过度波动性也保持了市场的高波动性。黄金与白银的比率现在已降至 50 以下，为 2011 年以来的最低水平，突显了白银的显著超越表现。</p>
<p>黄金在昨天一度上涨至 $5,100/盎司，延续了其涨势。受到美联储降息预期、美元走弱和持续的地缘政治风险的支持。随着中央银行的购买保持强劲，实际利率可能走低，中期展望仍然乐观。随着政治不确定性加剧，从特朗普总统推动的政策意外到新的美联储主席，再到今年晚些时候的美国中期选举，黄金应继续获得投资者的支持。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>波兰 12 月零售销售激增确认强劲的消费者需求</p>
<p>外汇日报：怀疑的美元/日元干预加剧了美元疲软的时刻</p>
<p>白银首次突破 $100/盎司</p>

<p>美国天然气价格飙升近 29%，达到每百万英热单位 6.80 美元，原因是严重的冬季风暴影响了生产并增加了取暖需求。现货价格一度超过每百万英热单位 30 美元。美国液化天然气工厂减少了 48% 的天然气摄入，影响了对欧洲的出口，而欧洲的储存水平正在下降。油价略微下跌，受到风暴对产量和炼油厂运营影响的影响。银价飙升超过 12%，创下每盎司 110 美元以上的纪录，而黄金也上涨至每盎司 5100 美元以上，受到美联储降息预期和地缘政治风险的支持</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/risto-ristov/user_content/ckimages/orig_timothy-newman-itz_guchht0-unsplash.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/risto-ristov/user_content/ckimages/orig_timothy-newman-itz_guchht0-unsplash.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Photo by Timothy Newman on Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片由 Timothy Newman 提供，来源于 Unsplash</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy – US LNG plants reduce gas intake</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源 – 美国液化天然气工厂减少天然气摄入</strong></h3>
</div><p>US natural gas prices continued their rally yesterday, with front-month Henry Hub settling almost 29% higher at $6.80/MMBtu. This takes the total gains since 19 January to almost 120%. Yet the move in US natural gas is even more astonishing when looking at the spot Henry Hub price, which briefly broke above $30/MMBtu in recent days. It’s been driven by a severe winter storm across the US. This is impacting natural gas production and boosting heating demand. The storm is estimated to have hit around 11% of US natural gas production. The key question for the outlook, obviously, is how long this disruption lasts. There are some signs that production is already recovering, with gas output from the Permian estimated to be up 11% day-on-day yesterday. If this trend continues, it suggests prices have likely peaked.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国天然气价格在昨天继续上涨，前一个月的亨利中心价格收于每百万英热单位 $6.80，涨幅接近 29%。自 1 月 19 日以来，总涨幅接近 120%。然而，当观察到现货亨利中心价格在最近几天短暂突破 $30/MMBtu 时，美国天然气的涨幅显得更加惊人。这是由于美国范围内的严重冬季风暴所驱动，影响了天然气生产并提升了取暖需求。预计这场风暴对美国天然气生产的影响约为 11%。显然，展望的关键问题是这种干扰会持续多久。有迹象表明，生产已经开始恢复，预计昨天的二叠纪地区天然气产量日增 11%。如果这一趋势持续下去，价格可能已经达到峰值。</p>
</div><p>Developments in the US natural gas market remain a concern for the European market, as supply disruptions could weigh on US LNG exports to Europe. In recent days, US LNG plants have significantly reduced their gas intake, estimated to be down around 48%, which will translate into reduced LNG exports from these plants. TTF continues to trade at a healthy premium to Asian LNG to ensure LNG cargoes move into Europe, where storage has now fallen below 45% full. It’s looking increasingly likely that storage will end the 25/26 heating season at below 25% full. This would also be below the levels seen in 2022. The difference between 2022 and 2026 is that we are currently seeing significant LNG supply ramp-ups, which should help soothe supply concerns to some extent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国天然气市场的发展仍然让欧洲市场感到担忧，因为供应中断可能会影响美国液化天然气对欧洲的出口。最近几天，美国液化天然气工厂显著减少了天然气摄入，估计下降约 48%，这将导致这些工厂的液化天然气出口减少。TTF 继续以健康的溢价交易于亚洲液化天然气，以确保液化天然气货物流入欧洲，而欧洲的储存水平现在已降至 45% 以下。越来越可能的是，储存将在 25/26 供暖季结束时低于 25% 的水平。这也低于 2022 年的水平。2022 年与 2026 年的区别在于，我们目前看到液化天然气供应显著增加，这在一定程度上应该有助于缓解供应担忧。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices settled lower yesterday, with ICE Brent closing down more than 0.4%. The US winter storm should also support demand for heating fuels, as reflected in the heating oil crack. Freezing conditions will disrupt US oil output. The weather has also affected refinery operations. So, refinery run rates have fallen in recent days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价昨天收低，ICE 布伦特原油下跌超过 0.4%。美国的冬季风暴也应支持取暖燃料的需求，这在取暖油裂解价差中有所体现。严寒天气将干扰美国的石油产出。天气也影响了炼油厂的运营。因此，炼油厂的开工率在最近几天有所下降。</p>
</div><p>There are also signs that the honeymoon phase between the US and the new Venezuelan leader may be coming to an end, with President Delcy Rodriguez saying Venezuela has had enough of US interference. While these comments may be more for internal consumption, they are certainly worth keeping an eye on, as they could alter the outlook for Venezuelan oil supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有迹象表明，美国与新任委内瑞拉领导人之间的蜜月期可能即将结束，委内瑞拉总统德尔西·罗德里格斯表示，委内瑞拉已经厌倦了美国的干涉。虽然这些评论可能更多是为了内部消费，但它们确实值得关注，因为它们可能会改变对委内瑞拉石油供应的展望。</p>
</div><p>Kazakhstan’s oil output is set to recover, with Tengizchevroil restoring power to its Tengiz field. Operations at the Tengiz and Korolev fields, which produced around 890k b/d over the first three quarters of 2025, were halted last week due to power issues. Meanwhile, the completion of repair work at the CPC terminal should also support a recovery in export flows. A recovery in these flows should improve availability in the prompt market, putting some pressure on the Brent prompt spread, which has strengthened significantly through January. The strength in timespreads has been at odds with estimates for a large oil surplus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哈萨克斯坦的石油产量预计将恢复，Tengizchevroil 正在恢复其 Tengiz 油田的电力供应。由于电力问题，Tengiz 和 Korolev 油田的运营在 2025 年前三个季度停滞，产量约为 890,000 桶/日。与此同时，CPC 终端的维修工作完成也应支持出口流量的恢复。这些流量的恢复应改善即期市场的可用性，给布伦特即期价差施加一些压力，该价差在 1 月份显著走强。时差的强劲与对大量石油过剩的预估相悖。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Metals - Silver smashes another record above $110/oz</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>金属 - 白银再次突破 $110/盎司的纪录</strong></h3>
</div><p>Silver surged more than 12% in its biggest one-day jump since 2008, hitting a new record above $110/oz, before giving back some of these gains. The rally reflects both its precious metal appeal and tightening physical conditions: inventories remain low, lease rates are elevated, and the market has entered yet another year of supply deficits. Prices are now up around 60% year‑to‑date after a nearly 150% surge in 2025. Yet risks remain, with high prices potentially triggering industrial demand destruction and silver’s tendency to overshoot, keeping volatility high. The gold–silver ratio has now slipped below 50, its lowest level since 2011, underscoring silver’s dramatic outperformance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银在其自 2008 年以来最大的一天涨幅中上涨超过 12%，创下 $110/盎司以上的新纪录，随后回吐了一部分涨幅。这一上涨反映了其作为贵金属的吸引力和日益紧张的实物条件：库存仍然较低，租赁费率高企，市场又进入了供应赤字的一年。价格年初至今上涨约 60%，在 2025 年几乎上涨了 150%。然而，风险依然存在，高价格可能会引发工业需求的破坏，而白银的过度波动性也保持了市场的高波动性。黄金与白银的比率现在已降至 50 以下，为 2011 年以来的最低水平，突显了白银的显著超越表现。</p>
</div><p>Gold also extended its rally above $5,100/oz at one stage yesterday. It was supported by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar and persistent geopolitical risks. With the central bank buying holding strong and real rates likely heading lower, the medium-term outlook remains favourable. As political uncertainty elevated, from President Trump‑driven policy surprises to a new Fed chair to the US midterm elections later this year, gold should continue to find investor support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金在昨天一度上涨至 $5,100/盎司，延续了其涨势。受到美联储降息预期、美元走弱和持续的地缘政治风险的支持。随着中央银行的购买保持强劲，实际利率可能走低，中期展望仍然乐观。随着政治不确定性加剧，从特朗普总统推动的政策意外到新的美联储主席，再到今年晚些时候的美国中期选举，黄金应继续获得投资者的支持。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Poland’s December Retail Sales Surge Confirms Strong Consumer Demand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波兰 12 月零售销售激增确认强劲的消费者需求</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: Suspected USD/JPY Intervention Adds To Weak Dollar Moment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外汇日报：怀疑的美元/日元干预加剧了美元疲软的时刻</p>
</div><p>Silver Hits $100/Oz For The First Time</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银首次突破 $100/盎司</p>
</div>

商品动态：美国天然气价格是否已经达到顶峰？