<p>亚洲固定收益在过去几年悄然复苏，进入 2026 年时处于强势地位。在美国财政不确定性上升、全球流动性条件变化以及主要经济体通胀放缓的背景下，亚洲作为一个区域，凭借改善的信用基本面、积极的货币环境和快速成熟的固定收益生态系统而脱颖而出。</p>
<p>证据层出不穷。亚洲的宏观环境总体保持稳定。该地区的通胀基本得到控制；外部平衡健康；货币政策要么保持中性，要么逐渐转向宽松。</p>
<p>这些条件帮助亚洲固定收益实现了稳健的总回报——2025 年投资级（IG）策略回报约为 8%，非投资级策略回报超过 10%。这一表现不仅反映了周期性的韧性，也体现了该资产类别的结构性演变。</p>
<p>亚洲本币和美元债券市场的总规模超过 30 万亿美元，现在在深度和广度上与发达市场的同行相媲美。然而，它们在全球投资组合中的代表性仍然显著不足。</p>
<p>随着美国财政风险上升和主要发达市场利率路径波动持续，亚洲为投资者提供了越来越稀缺的组合：收益、分散投资、稳定性和改善的信用质量。</p>
<h2>寻找高质量和强耐久性</h2>
<p>在投资级领域，机会比过去十年中的任何时刻都要好。亚洲投资级在与美国和欧洲投资级市场的长期表现对比中，优势明显，但今天最引人注目的是近年来信用质量的变化。</p>
<p>五年前，市场主要集中在评级为 “BBB+” 及以下的发行人。如今，指数中超过一半的评级为 “A-” 或以上，反映出升级的稳定步伐和更健康的基本面。</p>
<p>该地区的发行人特征也使其与西方基准有显著区别。主权、国有企业和金融机构占据了指数的 70% 以上，提供了防御性倾斜，帮助亚洲投资级持续产生竞争性回报且波动性较低。</p>
<p>在调整久期后，收益仍然具有吸引力，需求集中在三到五年期的债券上，投资者能够在预期的降息周期之前获得更高的收益，同时保持灵活性。</p>
<p>随着全球固定收益市场面临估值过高和财政压力上升的挑战，亚洲投资级作为一种更高质量、更稳定的替代品脱颖而出。</p>
<h2>更清晰、更具选择性的机会集</h2>
<p>在非投资级领域，转变更加明显。亚洲高收益（HY）市场经历了结构性重置，成为一个基本上更清晰和多样化的机会集合。</p>
<p>曾经占据主导地位的中国房地产行业，在其巅峰时期占据了指数的三分之一以上，现在已减少到中个位数的份额。</p>
<p>取而代之的是，主权、准主权和边缘新兴市场的发行人扮演了更重要的角色，提高了整体质量并降低了系统性脆弱性。</p>
<p>斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦和蒙古等边缘主权国家正在受益于国际货币基金组织支持的改革、更强的外部平衡和改善的宏观基础，导致低且可控的违约前景。马尔代夫和老挝等国也在改善的条件和评级升级中受益。</p>
<p>在收益率徘徊在 8% 左右、久期接近 2.5 年的情况下，收益仍然是回报的主要驱动因素，在全球利差保持紧缩的时刻提供了有意义的盈亏保护。</p>
<p>然而，回报生成的性质正在发生变化。过去几年的广泛贝塔反弹已经结束，表现的差异性缩小。这意味着表现将越来越依赖于发行人的差异化、政策理解和严谨的自下而上的信用选择。</p>
<h2>有利的技术面是助力</h2>
<p>无论是投资级还是高收益，技术条件仍然支持。预计亚洲高收益的净供应将保持负值，因为再融资需求继续超过新发行，这有助于稳定利差，并为估值提供有利的背景。</p>
<p>对短期、高收益资产的需求在全球范围内仍然强劲，特别是在中央银行转向宽松的背景下。</p>
<p>在投资级领域，稳定且可预测的发行特征继续由区域投资者支撑，创造了一个稳定的需求基础，强化了该资产类别的防御特性。</p>
<p>为未来一年做好定位需要结合质量、收益和选择性。在投资级领域，重点应放在高质量的主权和准主权上，得益于该地区日益强劲的评级特征和有吸引力的调整久期收益。</p>
<p>在高收益领域，最具吸引力的机会可能出现在高凸性信用、边缘改革故事和特定的企业转型中，这些企业的资产负债表改善且有可信的政策框架支持。</p>
<p>随着系统性风险的降低和特有风险的上升，优势完全在于能够将严格的信用研究与严谨的头寸规模和风险控制相结合的投资者。</p>
<p>亚洲固定收益不再仅仅是区域多样化，它正成为全球投资组合中的战略核心配置。对于寻求稳定收入、多样化和积极基本面的投资者来说，越来越难以忽视。</p>
<p><strong>作者是富达国际亚洲固定收益部门负责人</strong></p>

<p>亚洲固定收益市场在 2026 年即将迎来一个重要的转折点，特点是信用基本面改善和宏观环境稳定。随着 2025 年稳健的回报，该地区的债券市场价值超过 30 万亿美元，提供了有吸引力的收益和多样化投资机会。投资级（IG）机会尤其强劲，市场正向更高信用质量转变。非投资级（HY）也发生了变化，减少了对中国房地产行业的依赖。支持性的技术条件以及对质量和选择性的关注将是投资者的关键，因为亚洲固定收益将成为全球投资组合中的战略核心配置</p>

<p>ASIAN fixed income, which has staged a quiet resurgence over the past couple of years, entered 2026 in a position of strength. Against a backdrop of rising US fiscal uncertainty, shifting global liquidity conditions and softening inflation across major economies, Asia stands out as a region defined by improving credit fundamentals, constructive monetary settings and a rapidly maturing fixed income ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲固定收益在过去几年悄然复苏，进入 2026 年时处于强势地位。在美国财政不确定性上升、全球流动性条件变化以及主要经济体通胀放缓的背景下，亚洲作为一个区域，凭借改善的信用基本面、积极的货币环境和快速成熟的固定收益生态系统而脱颖而出。</p>
</div><p>The proof points stack up. Asia’s macro environment remains broadly stable. Inflation across the region is largely contained; external balances are healthy; and monetary policies are either neutral or gradually shifting towards accommodation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>证据层出不穷。亚洲的宏观环境总体保持稳定。该地区的通胀基本得到控制；外部平衡健康；货币政策要么保持中性，要么逐渐转向宽松。</p>
</div><p>These conditions helped Asian fixed income deliver solid total returns – around 8 per cent for investment-grade (IG) strategies and more than 10 per cent for non-investment grade strategies in 2025. This performance that reflects not only cyclical resilience but also the structural evolution of the asset class.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些条件帮助亚洲固定收益实现了稳健的总回报——2025 年投资级（IG）策略回报约为 8%，非投资级策略回报超过 10%。这一表现不仅反映了周期性的韧性，也体现了该资产类别的结构性演变。</p>
</div><p>At more than US$30 trillion in size, the combined Asia local-currency and US dollar bond markets now rival developed-market peers in depth and breadth. Yet they remain significantly underrepresented in global portfolios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲本币和美元债券市场的总规模超过 30 万亿美元，现在在深度和广度上与发达市场的同行相媲美。然而，它们在全球投资组合中的代表性仍然显著不足。</p>
</div><p>As US fiscal risks rise and volatility around major developed‑market rate paths persists, Asia offers investors something increasingly scarce: a combination of yield, diversification, stability and improving credit quality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着美国财政风险上升和主要发达市场利率路径波动持续，亚洲为投资者提供了越来越稀缺的组合：收益、分散投资、稳定性和改善的信用质量。</p>
</div><h2>Look for high quality and strong durability</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>寻找高质量和强耐久性</h2>
</div><p>Within the IG segment, the opportunity is better than at any point in the past decade. Asian IG’s strong long-term record versus US and European IG markets is well established, but what is most compelling today is the shift in credit quality that has occurred in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投资级领域，机会比过去十年中的任何时刻都要好。亚洲投资级在与美国和欧洲投资级市场的长期表现对比中，优势明显，但今天最引人注目的是近年来信用质量的变化。</p>
</div><p>Five years ago, the universe leaned heavily towards issuers rated “BBB+” and below. Today, more than half of the index is rated “A-” or above, reflecting a steady pace of upgrades and healthier underlying fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五年前，市场主要集中在评级为 “BBB+” 及以下的发行人。如今，指数中超过一半的评级为 “A-” 或以上，反映出升级的稳定步伐和更健康的基本面。</p>
</div><p>The region’s issuer profile also distinguishes it meaningfully from Western benchmarks. Sovereigns, state-owned enterprises and financial institutions make up more than 70 per cent of the index, providing a defensive tilt that has helped Asian IG consistently generate competitive returns with lower volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该地区的发行人特征也使其与西方基准有显著区别。主权、国有企业和金融机构占据了指数的 70% 以上，提供了防御性倾斜，帮助亚洲投资级持续产生竞争性回报且波动性较低。</p>
</div><p>Yield remains attractive on a duration-adjusted basis and demand is concentrated in the three to five‑year segment, where investors are able to secure higher yields ahead of the anticipated rate cut cycle, while maintaining flexibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在调整久期后，收益仍然具有吸引力，需求集中在三到五年期的债券上，投资者能够在预期的降息周期之前获得更高的收益，同时保持灵活性。</p>
</div><p>As global fixed income markets grapple with stretched valuations and rising fiscal strains, Asian IG stands out as a higher-quality, more stable alternative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着全球固定收益市场面临估值过高和财政压力上升的挑战，亚洲投资级作为一种更高质量、更稳定的替代品脱颖而出。</p>
</div><h2>Cleaner, more selective opportunity set</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更清晰、更具选择性的机会集</h2>
</div><p>In non-IG grade, the transformation has been even more pronounced. The Asian high-yield (HY) universe has undergone a structural reset, becoming a fundamentally cleaner and more diversified set of opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在非投资级领域，转变更加明显。亚洲高收益（HY）市场经历了结构性重置，成为一个基本上更清晰和多样化的机会集合。</p>
</div><p>The once-dominant Chinese property sector, which accounted for more than a third of the index at its peak, has been reduced to a mid-single-digit share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曾经占据主导地位的中国房地产行业，在其巅峰时期占据了指数的三分之一以上，现在已减少到中个位数的份额。</p>
</div><p>In its place, sovereigns, quasi‑sovereigns and frontier emerging-market issuers have taken on a larger role, improving the overall quality and reducing systemic vulnerabilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>取而代之的是，主权、准主权和边缘新兴市场的发行人扮演了更重要的角色，提高了整体质量并降低了系统性脆弱性。</p>
</div><p>Frontier sovereigns such as Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Mongolia are benefiting from reforms anchored by the International Monetary Fund, stronger external balances and improving macro anchors, contributing to a low and contained default outlook. Countries such as the Maldives and Laos are also benefiting from improved conditions and rating upgrades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦和蒙古等边缘主权国家正在受益于国际货币基金组织支持的改革、更强的外部平衡和改善的宏观基础，导致低且可控的违约前景。马尔代夫和老挝等国也在改善的条件和评级升级中受益。</p>
</div><p>With yields hovering around 8 per cent and durations near 2.5 years, carry remains the central driver of returns, offering meaningful breakeven protection at a time when global spreads remain tight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在收益率徘徊在 8% 左右、久期接近 2.5 年的情况下，收益仍然是回报的主要驱动因素，在全球利差保持紧缩的时刻提供了有意义的盈亏保护。</p>
</div><p>Yet the nature of return generation is changing. The broad beta rallies of previous years have run their course and dispersion has narrowed. This means performance will increasingly depend on issuer differentiation, policy understanding and disciplined, bottom-up credit selection.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，回报生成的性质正在发生变化。过去几年的广泛贝塔反弹已经结束，表现的差异性缩小。这意味着表现将越来越依赖于发行人的差异化、政策理解和严谨的自下而上的信用选择。</p>
</div><h2>Favourable technicals a tailwind</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>有利的技术面是助力</h2>
</div><p>Technical conditions across both IG and HY remain supportive. Net supply in Asian HY is expected to stay negative as refinancing needs continue to exceed new issuance, helping to stabilise spreads and providing a favourable backdrop for valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论是投资级还是高收益，技术条件仍然支持。预计亚洲高收益的净供应将保持负值，因为再融资需求继续超过新发行，这有助于稳定利差，并为估值提供有利的背景。</p>
</div><p>Demand for short-duration, high-yielding assets remains strong globally, particularly as central banks pivot towards easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对短期、高收益资产的需求在全球范围内仍然强劲，特别是在中央银行转向宽松的背景下。</p>
</div><p>In IG, the steady and predictable issuance profile continues to be anchored by regional investors, creating a stable demand base that reinforces the asset class’s defensive characteristics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投资级领域，稳定且可预测的发行特征继续由区域投资者支撑，创造了一个稳定的需求基础，强化了该资产类别的防御特性。</p>
</div><p>Positioning for the year ahead calls for a combination of quality, carry and selectivity. In IG, the focus should remain on high‑quality sovereigns and quasi‑sovereigns, supported by the region’s increasingly robust ratings profile and attractive duration-adjusted yields</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为未来一年做好定位需要结合质量、收益和选择性。在投资级领域，重点应放在高质量的主权和准主权上，得益于该地区日益强劲的评级特征和有吸引力的调整久期收益。</p>
</div><p>In HY, the most compelling opportunities are likely to be found in high-convexity credits, frontier reform stories and specific corporate turnarounds backed by improving balance sheets and credible policy frameworks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在高收益领域，最具吸引力的机会可能出现在高凸性信用、边缘改革故事和特定的企业转型中，这些企业的资产负债表改善且有可信的政策框架支持。</p>
</div><p>With systemic risks receding and idiosyncratic risks rising, the advantage lies squarely with investors who can combine rigorous credit research with disciplined position sizing and risk control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着系统性风险的降低和特有风险的上升，优势完全在于能够将严格的信用研究与严谨的头寸规模和风险控制相结合的投资者。</p>
</div><p>Asian fixed income is no longer simply a regional diversifier, it is becoming a strategic core allocation in global portfolios. For investors seeking resilient income, diversification and constructive fundamentals, it is increasingly difficult to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲固定收益不再仅仅是区域多样化，它正成为全球投资组合中的战略核心配置。对于寻求稳定收入、多样化和积极基本面的投资者来说，越来越难以忽视。</p>
</div><p><strong>The writer is head of Asian fixed income, Fidelity International</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>作者是富达国际亚洲固定收益部门负责人</strong></p>
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为什么 2026 年会成为亚洲固定收益市场的转折点