<p>在过去一周，比特币回落至约 85,000 美元，上涨动能明显减弱。</p>
<p>尽管现货交易量没有崩溃，但相对安静。这进一步确认我们目前正处于一个乏味的整合期，尚未到达重大方向性变动的时机。</p>
<h3>比特币进入整合阶段</h3>
<p>随着 BTC 上周回落至约 85,000 美元，上涨动能明显减弱，14 天相对强弱指数（RSI）指标也在下滑。</p>
<p>现货交易量看起来不错，但实际上非常安静；每个人都在观察和等待，犹豫不决，不敢进行大动作。</p>
<p>这通常是一个典型的 “磨蹭市场”（整合期），短期内不太可能出现重大上涨。价格动能（RSI）：代表市场热情。RSI 从 51.3 降至 42.4（下降 17.3%）。简单来说，牛市动能显著减弱。该指标当前的低水平表明市场情绪正在转向防御性，没有人敢于带头。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428529_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="OWIHNbezlFycNUhWNStMy8gNel0V3zbfls5PpjLB.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428529_image3.png"/></p>
<p>价格动能</p>
<ul>
<li>现货交易量：在此期间实际买卖了多少比特币？</li>
</ul>
<p>实际买卖比特币的交易量从 89.8 亿美元略微减少至 88.3 亿美元。</p>
<p>这个交易量并不是崩溃，但也缺乏兴奋，表明市场当前缺乏活跃度。</p>
<h3>大投资者正在撤离</h3>
<p>现货市场目前看起来相当严峻。现货 CVD 指标急剧转为负值，确认卖方完全掌控，抛售远比买入更为激进。</p>
<p>净资本流动也经历了剧烈反转，直接从流入转为显著流出。</p>
<p>这表明大型机构资金正在撤出，对近期价格施加了真实压力。</p>
<ul>
<li>现货净交易保证金：该指标反映了买方和卖方谁更为主动。</li>
</ul>
<p>数据从正的 5420 万美元骤降至负的 1.94 亿美元。</p>
<p>这意味着卖方正在拼命抛售其持有的资产，获得绝对控制权。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428530_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="g21f6PXbppkmxn9eBGNdFXktBL8gFejkbtRrVQGD.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428530_image3.png"/></p>
<p>现货交易的净差价</p>
<ul>
<li>现货 ETF 资金流动：反映华尔街的 “大资金” 是否在进入或离开市场。</li>
</ul>
<p>之前每周流入 16 亿美元，但现在变成每周流出 16 亿美元。</p>
<p>这种剧烈反转表明通过 ETF 进入市场的传统资金正在撤出，寻求更安全的避风港。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428531_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="WfDkNz5aP1KbZuswvU5NKbgjDiaJCX02htkQUwJk.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428531_image3.png"/></p>
<p>现货 ETF 资金流动</p>
<h3>看涨情绪依然强烈</h3>
<p>合约交易者现在意见分歧较大。</p>
<p>期货未平仓合约的减少表明一些人觉得形势不利，平仓并减少杠杆。</p>
<p>期货未平仓合约的减少表明一些人觉得形势不利，平仓并退出市场，导致杠杆减少。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428532_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Wr9PDbzglKSnpXEk6eqrJgjFxRlecdzfiKcj7mxE.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428532_image3.png"/></p>
<p>期货未平仓合约</p>
<ul>
<li>融资利率：反映市场情绪。</li>
</ul>
<p>买方非常渴望并愿意花费大量资金押注反弹。但这通常也是一个危险信号，表明多头有些过于拥挤，容易成为目标。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428533_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="B3WE0OtdHr0dRAO9wlvYDNCTSCE7IaeNBa7O0GYb.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428533_image3.png"/></p>
<p>融资利率</p>
<ul>
<li>永续合约净买/卖差价：在杠杆市场中，做多的是否更为激进，还是做空的更为激进？</li>
</ul>
<p>该指标的急剧下降表明在合约市场中有许多人积极抛售，这是一种非常明显的分配信号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428534_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="4taBWa4pd4oH1hbcRaSEEBTDh5MTnShUuphLVjeX.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428534_image3.png"/></p>
<p>永续合约的净差价</p>
<h3>期权市场：被迫购买 “保险”</h3>
<p>期权交易者现在极为谨慎。</p>
<p>未平仓合约略有减少，尽管波动率差价有所缩小，但仍然很高（这意味着每个人都认为未来价格将继续剧烈波动）。</p>
<p>最明显的迹象是 25 delta 偏斜的急剧上升。该指标的激增通常意味着每个人都在争相购买看跌期权以寻求保护。简而言之，大家都害怕下跌，疯狂购买保险。期权未平仓合约：这反映了市场上当前有多少资金被锁定。未平仓期权总量略微减少至 329 亿美元，表明略微降温。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428535_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="ee4MYp2sBg7HF1Ikj0lOOlpfhrtcmpb8LQRNtFbi.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428535_image3.png"/></p>
<p>期权未平仓合约</p>
<ul>
<li>波动率差价：衡量市场预期的混乱程度。</li>
</ul>
<p>尽管波动率差价略有下降，但仍处于高位。这表明期权交易者认为市场风险大于表面所显示的。</p>
<p>波动率差价略有下降，但仍处于高位。这表明期权交易者认为市场风险大于表面所显示的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428536_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Thdzw65aTyt7ADDOt2fPEd9bPoPB904Vbdj9tWN2.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428536_image3.png"/></p>
<p>波动率差价</p>
<ul>
<li>期权偏差：衡量更多人是购买 “看涨保险” 还是 “看跌保险”。</li>
</ul>
<p>期权偏斜从 5.94% 跃升至 10.77%。这表明当前对 “对冲下跌” 的需求比押注价格大幅上涨更为普遍。市场确实对价格下跌感到担忧。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428537_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="iguecFWquMN57EjP77KiRDojvs8mKS5eV6Qs8txg.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428537_image3.png"/></p>
<p>期权偏差</p>
<h3>链上活动平静</h3>
<p>BTC 网络当前缺乏活动。</p>
<p>活跃地址数量已降至正常水平的下限，交易金额也处于低位，交易费用也有所减少。</p>
<p>这表明人们的转账或交易活动不多。如果链上没有拥堵，证明人们的交易欲望不强。</p>
<p>活跃地址：减少了 4.8%，表明参与交易的人数减少。链上交易量：减少了 1.5%，反映出网络经济活动的疲软。总交易费用：减少了 12.4%。随着转账的人数减少，交易费用自然降低，反映出市场疲软。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428538_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="Q1vTpJ13dZteGbbrBtmOBPHJqYTKKqOXCiV450Hs.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428538_image3.png"/></p>
<p>链上活动</p>
<h3>更多人正在止损</h3>
<p>每个人的钱包都在缩水。处于盈利状态的代币比例在减少，而实现的损失在增加。</p>
<p>这意味着许多代币持有者现在处于亏损状态，或者根本无法承受压力，已经止损离场。这通常是市场压力积累的信号。</p>
<p>这意味着许多代币持有者现在处于亏损状态，或者已经止损离场。这通常是市场压力积累的信号。</p>
<ul>
<li>盈利持有比例：反映当前持币者中盈利的比例。</li>
</ul>
<p>该比例已降至 66.9%。这意味着目前持有的 BTC 中，盈利的比例不足 70%，与之前相比大幅下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428539_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="gbRzv7MIe8ELeqXOy4ZIKPaGVYyfAMH3dabRe9Bl.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428539_image3.png"/></p>
<p>盈利持有比例</p>
<ul>
<li>实现利润/损失比例：记录那些实际出售代币的人平均是盈利还是亏损。</li>
</ul>
<p>盈利持有比例</p>
<ul>
<li>实现利润/损失比例：记录那些实际出售代币的人平均是盈利还是亏损。</li>
</ul>
<p>该指标已转为负值（-1.0）。简单来说，在现在市场上出售代币的人中，亏损的金额（止损）已超过盈利的金额（获利）。这通常是市场恐慌的早期信号。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428540_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="6wVeJRrOioRsiEFt6PafauMHk8wdbmidKlcP8wFu.png" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428540_image3.png"/></p>
<p>实现利润/损失比例</p>
<h3>总结</h3>
<p>无论是现货交易、期货交易，还是链上数据，市场都在转向防御模式。</p>
<p>虽然高杠杆的情况稍微好一些，但卖方依然激进，大家忙于对冲潜在的价格下跌。这表明市场目前非常脆弱。稳定价格需要新资金进入市场，或者试图抛售的资金耗尽。</p>

<p>比特币最近回落至约 85,000 美元，进入了一个整合阶段，向上的动能减弱。现货交易量略有下降，表明市场活动不足。大型投资者正在撤资，导致净资本流出为负。期货未平仓合约减少，反映出交易者的谨慎情绪。期权市场对看跌期权的需求增加，显示出对价格下跌的恐惧。总体而言，市场情绪正向防御性立场转变，参与者对进行重大操作持谨慎态度</p>

<p>Over the past week, Bitcoin has pulled back to around $85,000, and the upward momentum has clearly weakened.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一周，比特币回落至约 85,000 美元，上涨动能明显减弱。</p>
</div><p>While spot trading volume hasn't collapsed, it's been relatively quiet. This further confirms that we're currently in a tedious period of consolidation, and it's not yet time for a major directional move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管现货交易量没有崩溃，但相对安静。这进一步确认我们目前正处于一个乏味的整合期，尚未到达重大方向性变动的时机。</p>
</div><h3>Bitcoin Enters Consolidation Phase</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>比特币进入整合阶段</h3>
</div><p>With BTC falling back to around $85,000 last week, the upward momentum has clearly weakened, as evidenced by the 14-day RSI indicator sliding lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 BTC 上周回落至约 85,000 美元，上涨动能明显减弱，14 天相对强弱指数（RSI）指标也在下滑。</p>
</div><p>Spot trading volume looks decent, but it's actually very quiet; everyone is watching and waiting, hesitant to make any big moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货交易量看起来不错，但实际上非常安静；每个人都在观察和等待，犹豫不决，不敢进行大动作。</p>
</div><p>This is typically a typical &#34;grinding market&#34; (consolidation period), and a major surge is unlikely in the short term. Price Momentum (RSI): Represents market enthusiasm. The RSI, which measures price strength, has slipped from 51.3 to 42.4 (a drop of 17.3%). Simply put, the bullish momentum has weakened considerably. The current low level of this indicator suggests that market sentiment is shifting towards a defensive stance, with no one daring to lead the charge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这通常是一个典型的 “磨蹭市场”（整合期），短期内不太可能出现重大上涨。价格动能（RSI）：代表市场热情。RSI 从 51.3 降至 42.4（下降 17.3%）。简单来说，牛市动能显著减弱。该指标当前的低水平表明市场情绪正在转向防御性，没有人敢于带头。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428529_image3.png" alt="OWIHNbezlFycNUhWNStMy8gNel0V3zbfls5PpjLB.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428529_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Price Momentum</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格动能</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Spot Trading Volume: How much real BTC has been bought and sold during this period?</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>现货交易量：在此期间实际买卖了多少比特币？</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The volume of real money buying and selling Bitcoin has slightly decreased from $8.98 billion to $8.83 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际买卖比特币的交易量从 89.8 亿美元略微减少至 88.3 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>This volume isn't a collapse, but it also lacks excitement, indicating that the market is currently lacking in activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这个交易量并不是崩溃，但也缺乏兴奋，表明市场当前缺乏活跃度。</p>
</div><h3>Large investors are running away</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>大投资者正在撤离</h3>
</div><p>The spot market looks rather grim right now. The spot CVD indicator has turned sharply negative, confirming that sellers are completely in control, with dumping far more aggressively than buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货市场目前看起来相当严峻。现货 CVD 指标急剧转为负值，确认卖方完全掌控，抛售远比买入更为激进。</p>
</div><p>Net capital flow has also undergone a dramatic reversal, going directly from inflow to significant outflow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净资本流动也经历了剧烈反转，直接从流入转为显著流出。</p>
</div><p>This indicates that large institutional funds are withdrawing, putting real pressure on recent prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明大型机构资金正在撤出，对近期价格施加了真实压力。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Spot net trading margin: This indicator reflects who is more proactive, buyers or sellers.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>现货净交易保证金：该指标反映了买方和卖方谁更为主动。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The data plummeted from a positive $54.2 million to a negative $194 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据从正的 5420 万美元骤降至负的 1.94 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>This means that sellers are desperately selling off their holdings, gaining absolute control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着卖方正在拼命抛售其持有的资产，获得绝对控制权。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428530_image3.png" alt="g21f6PXbppkmxn9eBGNdFXktBL8gFejkbtRrVQGD.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428530_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Net Spread Between Spot Trading</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货交易的净差价</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Spot ETF Fund Flows: Reflecting Whether Wall Street's &#34;Big Money&#34; is Entering or Leaving the Market.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>现货 ETF 资金流动：反映华尔街的 “大资金” 是否在进入或离开市场。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Previously, there was a weekly inflow of $1.6 billion, but now it has become a weekly outflow of $1.6 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>之前每周流入 16 亿美元，但现在变成每周流出 16 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>This dramatic reversal indicates that traditional funds entering the market through ETFs are leaving to seek safer havens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种剧烈反转表明通过 ETF 进入市场的传统资金正在撤出，寻求更安全的避风港。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428531_image3.png" alt="WfDkNz5aP1KbZuswvU5NKbgjDiaJCX02htkQUwJk.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428531_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Spot ETF Fund Flow</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现货 ETF 资金流动</p>
</div><h3>Bullish sentiment remains strong</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>看涨情绪依然强烈</h3>
</div><p>Contract traders are quite divided now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>合约交易者现在意见分歧较大。</p>
</div><p>The decrease in futures open interest indicates that some people felt the situation was unfavorable, closed their positions, and reduced leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期货未平仓合约的减少表明一些人觉得形势不利，平仓并减少杠杆。</p>
</div><p>The decrease in futures open interest indicates that some people felt the situation was unfavorable, closed their positions, and exited the market, resulting in a decrease in leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期货未平仓合约的减少表明一些人觉得形势不利，平仓并退出市场，导致杠杆减少。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428532_image3.png" alt="Wr9PDbzglKSnpXEk6eqrJgjFxRlecdzfiKcj7mxE.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428532_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Futures Open Interest</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期货未平仓合约</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Funding Rates: Reflect Market Sentiment.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>融资利率：反映市场情绪。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Buyers are very eager and willing to spend a lot of money to bet on a rebound. But this is usually also a danger signal, indicating that the bulls are a bit too crowded and are easy to target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>买方非常渴望并愿意花费大量资金押注反弹。但这通常也是一个危险信号，表明多头有些过于拥挤，容易成为目标。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428533_image3.png" alt="B3WE0OtdHr0dRAO9wlvYDNCTSCE7IaeNBa7O0GYb.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428533_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Funding Rate</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>融资利率</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Perpetual Contract Net Buy/Sell Spread: In a leveraged market, are those who go long more aggressive, or those who go short more aggressive?</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>永续合约净买/卖差价：在杠杆市场中，做多的是否更为激进，还是做空的更为激进？</li>
</ul>
</div><p>This indicator's sharp drop indicates that there are many people actively dumping shares in the contract market, which is a very obvious sign of distribution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该指标的急剧下降表明在合约市场中有许多人积极抛售，这是一种非常明显的分配信号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428534_image3.png" alt="4taBWa4pd4oH1hbcRaSEEBTDh5MTnShUuphLVjeX.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428534_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Net Spread of Perpetual Contracts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永续合约的净差价</p>
</div><h3>Options Market: Scared into Buying &#34;Insurance&#34;</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>期权市场：被迫购买 “保险”</h3>
</div><p>Options players are now extremely cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期权交易者现在极为谨慎。</p>
</div><p>Open interest has decreased slightly, and although volatility spreads have narrowed, they remain high (meaning everyone believes prices will continue to fluctuate wildly in the future).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未平仓合约略有减少，尽管波动率差价有所缩小，但仍然很高（这意味着每个人都认为未来价格将继续剧烈波动）。</p>
</div><p>The most obvious sign is the sharp rise in the 25-delta skew. A surge in this indicator usually means everyone is rushing to buy put options for protection. In short, everyone is afraid of a drop and is frantically buying insurance. Option open interest: This reflects how much is currently tied up on the market. The total amount of outstanding options has slightly decreased to $32.9 billion, indicating a slight cooling down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最明显的迹象是 25 delta 偏斜的急剧上升。该指标的激增通常意味着每个人都在争相购买看跌期权以寻求保护。简而言之，大家都害怕下跌，疯狂购买保险。期权未平仓合约：这反映了市场上当前有多少资金被锁定。未平仓期权总量略微减少至 329 亿美元，表明略微降温。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428535_image3.png" alt="ee4MYp2sBg7HF1Ikj0lOOlpfhrtcmpb8LQRNtFbi.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428535_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Option Open Interest</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期权未平仓合约</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Volatility Spread: Measures the degree of confusion in market expectations.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>波动率差价：衡量市场预期的混乱程度。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Although the volatility spread has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level. This indicates that option traders perceive the market risk to be greater than it appears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管波动率差价略有下降，但仍处于高位。这表明期权交易者认为市场风险大于表面所显示的。</p>
</div><p>The volatility spread has decreased slightly, but it is still at a high level. This indicates that option traders perceive the market risk to be greater than it appears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波动率差价略有下降，但仍处于高位。这表明期权交易者认为市场风险大于表面所显示的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428536_image3.png" alt="Thdzw65aTyt7ADDOt2fPEd9bPoPB904Vbdj9tWN2.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428536_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Volatility Spread</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波动率差价</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Option Bias: Measures whether more people are buying &#34;call insurance&#34; or &#34;put insurance&#34;.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>期权偏差：衡量更多人是购买 “看涨保险” 还是 “看跌保险”。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Option skew jumped from 5.94% to 10.77%. This indicates that the demand for &#34;hedging against a fall&#34; is currently more prevalent than betting on a significant price increase. The market is genuinely worried about prices dropping.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期权偏斜从 5.94% 跃升至 10.77%。这表明当前对 “对冲下跌” 的需求比押注价格大幅上涨更为普遍。市场确实对价格下跌感到担忧。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428537_image3.png" alt="iguecFWquMN57EjP77KiRDojvs8mKS5eV6Qs8txg.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428537_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Option Bias</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期权偏差</p>
</div><h3>On-chain Activity is Quiet</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>链上活动平静</h3>
</div><p>The BTC network is currently lacking in activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BTC 网络当前缺乏活动。</p>
</div><p>The number of active addresses has fallen below the lower limit of normal levels, transaction amounts are also at a low level, and transaction fees have also decreased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>活跃地址数量已降至正常水平的下限，交易金额也处于低位，交易费用也有所减少。</p>
</div><p>This indicates that people are not transferring or trading much. If there is no congestion on the chain, it proves that people's desire to trade is not strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这表明人们的转账或交易活动不多。如果链上没有拥堵，证明人们的交易欲望不强。</p>
</div><p>Active addresses: decreased by 4.8%, indicating fewer people are participating in transactions. On-chain transaction volume: decreased by 1.5%, reflecting weakening economic activity on the network. Total transaction fees: decreased by 12.4%. With fewer people rushing to transfer funds, transaction fees are naturally lower, reflecting a sluggish market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>活跃地址：减少了 4.8%，表明参与交易的人数减少。链上交易量：减少了 1.5%，反映出网络经济活动的疲软。总交易费用：减少了 12.4%。随着转账的人数减少，交易费用自然降低，反映出市场疲软。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428538_image3.png" alt="Q1vTpJ13dZteGbbrBtmOBPHJqYTKKqOXCiV450Hs.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428538_image3.png"/></p>
<p>On-chain activity</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>链上活动</p>
</div><h3>More people are cutting their losses</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>更多人正在止损</h3>
</div><p>Everyone's wallets are shrinking. The proportion of tokens in a profitable state is decreasing, while realized losses are increasing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每个人的钱包都在缩水。处于盈利状态的代币比例在减少，而实现的损失在增加。</p>
</div><p>This means that many token holders are now in a loss-making state, or have simply been unable to withstand the pressure and have cut their losses and left the market. This is usually a signal that market pressure is accumulating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着许多代币持有者现在处于亏损状态，或者根本无法承受压力，已经止损离场。这通常是市场压力积累的信号。</p>
</div><p>This means that many token holders are now in a loss-making state, or have simply cut their losses and left the market. This is usually a signal that market pressure is accumulating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着许多代币持有者现在处于亏损状态，或者已经止损离场。这通常是市场压力积累的信号。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Profitable Holdings Ratio: Reflects the percentage of people currently holding coins who are making money.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>盈利持有比例：反映当前持币者中盈利的比例。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The ratio has dropped to 66.9%. This means that less than 70% of BTC holdings are currently profitable, a significant decrease compared to before.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该比例已降至 66.9%。这意味着目前持有的 BTC 中，盈利的比例不足 70%，与之前相比大幅下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428539_image3.png" alt="gbRzv7MIe8ELeqXOy4ZIKPaGVYyfAMH3dabRe9Bl.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428539_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Profitable Holdings Ratio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利持有比例</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Realized Profit/Loss Ratio: It records whether those who actually sold their coins made a profit or a loss on average.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>实现利润/损失比例：记录那些实际出售代币的人平均是盈利还是亏损。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Profitable Holdings Ratio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>盈利持有比例</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Realized Profit/Loss Ratio: It records whether those who actually sold their coins made a profit or a loss on average.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>实现利润/损失比例：记录那些实际出售代币的人平均是盈利还是亏损。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>This indicator has flipped to a negative value (-1.0). Simply put, among those selling coins in the market now, the amount of money lost (cutting losses) has exceeded the amount of money taken profits (making money). This is usually an early sign of market panic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该指标已转为负值（-1.0）。简单来说，在现在市场上出售代币的人中，亏损的金额（止损）已超过盈利的金额（获利）。这通常是市场恐慌的早期信号。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428540_image3.png" alt="6wVeJRrOioRsiEFt6PafauMHk8wdbmidKlcP8wFu.png" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7428540_image3.png"/></p>
<p>Realized Profit/Loss Ratio</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实现利润/损失比例</p>
</div><h3>Summary</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>总结</h3>
</div><p>Whether it's spot trading, futures trading, or on-chain data, the market is shifting to a defensive mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论是现货交易、期货交易，还是链上数据，市场都在转向防御模式。</p>
</div><p>While the situation is slightly better with high leverage, sellers remain aggressive, and everyone is busy hedging against potential price drops. This indicates the market is currently very fragile. Stabilizing prices requires either new funds entering the market or the exhaustion of those trying to dump shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然高杠杆的情况稍微好一些，但卖方依然激进，大家忙于对冲潜在的价格下跌。这表明市场目前非常脆弱。稳定价格需要新资金进入市场，或者试图抛售的资金耗尽。</p>
</div>

Bitcoin enters "grinding mode": Is it time to defend or buy the dip?

- 比特币回落至 $85,000，显示上涨动能减弱。
- 现货交易量略降至 $8.83 亿，市场活跃度不足。
- 投资者情绪转向防御，市场脆弱，需新资金介入。

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比特币进入 “磨合模式”：现在是防守还是逢低买入的时机？