<p>本周四家 “七大巨头” 公司发布财报，可能会影响市值加权的大型指数。这些结果也可能间接影响小型股。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Table-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Table-1.png"/></p>
<p>12 月季度的财报季刚刚开始。本周，四家科技巨头将发布财报——微软（MSFT）、特斯拉（TSLA）和 Facebook 母公司 Meta Platforms（META）将在周三发布，苹果（AAPL）将在周四发布。这四家公司合计市值超过 10 万亿美元，因此它们的财报结果至关重要。接下来，谷歌母公司 Alphabet（GOOG）将在下周三公布财报，亚马逊（AMZN）将在周四发布。英伟达（NVDA）要到 2 月 25 日才会公布其 1 月季度的财报。</p>
<p>在此之前，过去 60 天内这四家公司的共识预期基本保持不变，而在过去 90 天内，AAPL、META 和 MSFT 的预期略有上升（见表 1）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-1-3-1024x656.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-1-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>本周发布财报的四家科技巨头占 QQQ（Invesco QQQ Trust）超过 21% 的权重；图 1 中的七家公司——也被称为 “七大巨头”——占据了超过 38% 的权重。这些公司在市场中的主导地位不言而喻。在市值加权的指数中，如纳斯达克 100，这些公司自然会产生超出其市值的影响。</p>
<p>因此，所有的焦点都集中在财报发布后的交易者对股价的反应上。过去两个月，卖方分析师的预期没有变化，这可能降低了预期的门槛。这可以被解读为对多头有利。另一方面，平稳的预期也可能被视为卖方分析师对在财报发布前提高预期缺乏信心。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>交易者确实感到困惑，他们已经这样做了一段时间。纳斯达克 100 在 4 月 9 日触底 16542 点后经历了惊人的反弹，并在 10 月 29 日达到 26182 点的盘中高点，涨幅高达 58.3%。自那次高点以来，这个以科技股为主的指数一直处于一个对称三角形中。这个形态通常是中性的，表明买卖双方势均力敌。突破可以向上或向下发生。</p>
<p>科技多头希望当前的整合能够以向上的突破结束。本周确实以周一的交易开始，指数上涨 0.4%，帮助其突破三角形，但这并不具决定性（见图 2）。另一方面，空头则寄希望于 11 月和 12 月的潜在看跌蜡烛；这两个月都是下跌的，尽管幅度不大，形成了一个吊人线和一个十字星，依次而来。因此，1 月的表现——上涨 1.8%——将具有重要意义。本月还有四个交易日，本周四家科技巨头的财报结果将影响 1 月的走势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-3-3-1024x654.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-3-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>11 月和 12 月的 S&amp;P 500 也出现了类似的蜡烛形态。“七大巨头” 对大型股指数也有很大影响，占 SPY（SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF）近 31% 的权重。他们的财报结果在发布后的反应将是 1 月走势的关键；截至目前，本月上涨 1.5%。</p>
<p>S&amp;P 500 在 4 月 9 日的盘中低点 4835 点与本月 12 日的 6986 点之间上涨了 44.5%，然后在 6920 点附近基本横盘了 13 周。周一，开盘的前几分钟有买盘在 6922 点等待，最终收盘上涨 0.5% 至 6950 点。一个强劲的 1 月应该会对 11 月和 12 月形成的蜡烛——一个吊人线和一个旋转顶——产生怀疑。但这还没有发生；因此，本周三和周四的科技财报至关重要。</p>
<p>除了 6920 点的水平阻力外，S&amp;P 500 还处于一个上升楔形中，这种形态通常会向下突破（见图 3）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-4-3-1024x656.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-4-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>小型股在 11 月和 12 月也未能逃脱连续的看跌蜡烛，分别形成了一个吊人线和一个流星。这是在 4 月 9 日 Russell 2000 指数触底 1733 点后，经历了 57.8% 的上涨，直到上周四的 2735 点。本月上涨了 7.1%，尽管蜡烛上有一点小影线。无论如何，如果多头能够保持这些涨幅，这可能会打破空头的乐观情绪。</p>
<p>话虽如此，上周在周线图上形成了一个难看的流星，周四的高点在周五时显著失去，周五收盘时为 2669 点，周跌幅为 0.3%（见图 4）。上周的犹豫价格走势是在 2540 点的干净突破后，紧随其后的是连续的强劲价格走势；在前一周，2460 点的突破回测是成功的。</p>
<p>上周的流星之后，周一又下跌了 0.4%。</p>
<p>Russell 2000 追踪的是美国 2000 家最小的公司。本周发布财报的四家科技公司不在该指数内。但交易者的情绪可能会受到 S&amp;P 500 交易情况的影响。在科技股抛售时，资金也可能流向小型股；这对希望消除 11 月和 12 月蜡烛影响的小型股多头来说是一个完美的场景。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-5-3-1024x656.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-5-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>与此同时，卖方分析师在提高 2026 年预期时表现出谨慎。截至上周三，这些分析师预计 S&amp;P 600 公司的运营收益为 96.27 美元（见图 5）。过去六个月的预期保持平稳，期间略有波动。</p>
<p>另一种看法是，卖方在去年二月份对今年的预测过于乐观，预计为 106.48 美元。这种情况通常会发生。这些分析师一开始持乐观态度，随着年份的推移逐渐下调他们的预测。</p>
<p>从这个角度来看，估计值可能还没有到底。目前，今年的收益预计将超过 44% 的增长，这将跟随去年近 8% 的预期增长率。对于 2025 年，卖方在 2024 年 5 月的预期为 102.88 美元；在剩下一个季度的收益情况下，2025 年的预期收益为 66.68 美元。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>交易者承诺：非商业头寸与期货</p>
<p>保证金债务合作，股权配置创纪录</p>
<p>CoT：对冲基金的头寸，通过期货窥探未来</p>

Meta 财报，一站看懂！

<p>本周，包括微软、特斯拉、Meta Platforms 和苹果在内的七大科技公司中的四家公司将发布财报，这可能会影响大盘指数。它们的总市值超过 10 万亿美元，对纳斯达克 100 和标普 500 产生影响。这些公司的共识预期保持稳定，部分公司略有上调。纳斯达克 100 经历了显著的波动，交易者对未来走势感到不确定。财报结果将对 1 月份的市场情绪产生重要影响，因为标普 500 和小型股也显示出混合信号</p>

<p>Four of the Magnificent 7 report this week and carry potential to sway large-cap indices that are weighted by market cap. It is also possible these results will hurt or help small-caps in a roundabout way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周四家 “七大巨头” 公司发布财报，可能会影响市值加权的大型指数。这些结果也可能间接影响小型股。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Table-1.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Table-1.png"/></p>
<p>The December-quarter earnings season just got underway. This week, four tech heavyweights report – Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA) and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) on Wednesday and Apple (AAPL) on Thursday. Combined, these four sport a market cap of over $10 trillion, so their results will matter. This will be followed next week when Google parent Alphabet (GOOG) will publish its numbers on Wednesday, and Amazon (AMZN) will do so on Thursday. Nvidia (NVDA) does not report its January quarter until February 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月季度的财报季刚刚开始。本周，四家科技巨头将发布财报——微软（MSFT）、特斯拉（TSLA）和 Facebook 母公司 Meta Platforms（META）将在周三发布，苹果（AAPL）将在周四发布。这四家公司合计市值超过 10 万亿美元，因此它们的财报结果至关重要。接下来，谷歌母公司 Alphabet（GOOG）将在下周三公布财报，亚马逊（AMZN）将在周四发布。英伟达（NVDA）要到 2 月 25 日才会公布其 1 月季度的财报。</p>
</div><p>Heading into this, consensus estimates have essentially remained unchanged over the past 60 days for all four, while they have slightly trended higher for AAPL, META and MSFT going out to 90 days (Table 1).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在此之前，过去 60 天内这四家公司的共识预期基本保持不变，而在过去 90 天内，AAPL、META 和 MSFT 的预期略有上升（见表 1）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-1-3-1024x656.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-1-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>The four tech bellwethers reporting this week account for over 21 percent of QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust); the seven in Chart 1 – also known as Magnificent 7 – make up over 38 percent. That is how dominating these companies are. In market cap-weighted indices such as the Nasdaq 100, these entities will naturally have an outsize influence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周发布财报的四家科技巨头占 QQQ（Invesco QQQ Trust）超过 21% 的权重；图 1 中的七家公司——也被称为 “七大巨头”——占据了超过 38% 的权重。这些公司在市场中的主导地位不言而喻。在市值加权的指数中，如纳斯达克 100，这些公司自然会产生超出其市值的影响。</p>
</div><p>All the focus hence is on post-earnings trader reaction to the share prices. The fact that the sell-side has left their estimates untouched the past two months probably lowers the bar. This can be interpreted as favoring the bulls. The other side of this coin is that the flattish estimates could also be viewed as the sell-side not showing conviction to raise their numbers into the earnings print.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，所有的焦点都集中在财报发布后的交易者对股价的反应上。过去两个月，卖方分析师的预期没有变化，这可能降低了预期的门槛。这可以被解读为对多头有利。另一方面，平稳的预期也可能被视为卖方分析师对在财报发布前提高预期缺乏信心。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-2-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>Traders are indeed confused, and they have acted this way for a while now. The Nasdaq 100 has had a phenomenal rally when it bottomed on 9 April at 16542 and peaked on 29 October when it reached an intraday high of 26182 – up a massive 58.3 percent. Since that high, the tech-heavy index has been caught in a symmetrical triangle. This pattern tends to be neutral, indicating an equal match between bids and offers. A break can occur in either direction – up or down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者确实感到困惑，他们已经这样做了一段时间。纳斯达克 100 在 4 月 9 日触底 16542 点后经历了惊人的反弹，并在 10 月 29 日达到 26182 点的盘中高点，涨幅高达 58.3%。自那次高点以来，这个以科技股为主的指数一直处于一个对称三角形中。这个形态通常是中性的，表明买卖双方势均力敌。突破可以向上或向下发生。</p>
</div><p>Tech bulls hope the current consolidation resolves with an upside breakout. This week did indeed begin with Monday’s session in which the index rose 0.4 percent, helping it poke its head out of the triangle, but it was hardly decisive (Chart 2). Bears, on the other hand, are eyeing with lots of hope the potentially bearish candles of November and December; they were down months, albeit nominally, and formed a hanging man and a doji, in that order. How January – up 1.8 percent – fares, therefore, will carry meaning. With four sessions to go this month, the results from the four tech biggies this week can shape how January looks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技多头希望当前的整合能够以向上的突破结束。本周确实以周一的交易开始，指数上涨 0.4%，帮助其突破三角形，但这并不具决定性（见图 2）。另一方面，空头则寄希望于 11 月和 12 月的潜在看跌蜡烛；这两个月都是下跌的，尽管幅度不大，形成了一个吊人线和一个十字星，依次而来。因此，1 月的表现——上涨 1.8%——将具有重要意义。本月还有四个交易日，本周四家科技巨头的财报结果将影响 1 月的走势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-3-3-1024x654.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-3-3-1024x654.png"/></p>
<p>November and December also produced similar candles on the S&amp;P 500. The Magnificent 7 also wield a big influence on the large cap index, accounting for nearly 31 percent of SPY (SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF). What reaction their results will ignite post-earnings will be key as to how January shapes up; the month is up 1.5 percent thus far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月和 12 月的 S&amp;P 500 也出现了类似的蜡烛形态。“七大巨头” 对大型股指数也有很大影响，占 SPY（SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF）近 31% 的权重。他们的财报结果在发布后的反应将是 1 月走势的关键；截至目前，本月上涨 1.5%。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 jumped 44.5 percent between the intraday low of 4835 on 9 April and 6986 printed on the 12th this month, then essentially went sideways around 6920s for 13 weeks. Monday, there were bids waiting at 6922 in the very opening minutes, ending the session up 0.5 percent to 6950. A decisively strong January should cast doubt over the candles November and December produced – a hanging man and a spinning top respectively. But that is yet to happen; hence the importance of tech earnings this Wednesday and Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>S&amp;P 500 在 4 月 9 日的盘中低点 4835 点与本月 12 日的 6986 点之间上涨了 44.5%，然后在 6920 点附近基本横盘了 13 周。周一，开盘的前几分钟有买盘在 6922 点等待，最终收盘上涨 0.5% 至 6950 点。一个强劲的 1 月应该会对 11 月和 12 月形成的蜡烛——一个吊人线和一个旋转顶——产生怀疑。但这还没有发生；因此，本周三和周四的科技财报至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Besides the horizontal resistance at 6920s, the S&amp;P 500 is also caught in a rising wedge, which often breaks to the downside (Chart 3).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 6920 点的水平阻力外，S&amp;P 500 还处于一个上升楔形中，这种形态通常会向下突破（见图 3）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-4-3-1024x656.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-4-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>Small-caps were not immune from back-to-back bearish-leaning candles in November and December, which respectively produced a hanging man and a shooting star. This followed a 57.8-percent surge from 9 April when the Russell 2000 bottomed at 1733 through last Thursday’s 2735. This month, it has gained 7.1 percent, albeit with a little bit of a wick on the candle. Regardless, if the bulls can hang on to these gains, this would probably have poked a hole in bears’ optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>小型股在 11 月和 12 月也未能逃脱连续的看跌蜡烛，分别形成了一个吊人线和一个流星。这是在 4 月 9 日 Russell 2000 指数触底 1733 点后，经历了 57.8% 的上涨，直到上周四的 2735 点。本月上涨了 7.1%，尽管蜡烛上有一点小影线。无论如何，如果多头能够保持这些涨幅，这可能会打破空头的乐观情绪。</p>
</div><p>With all that said, last week produced an ugly looking shooting star on the weekly, with Thursday’s high meaningfully lost by Friday when the session/week ended at 2669, down 0.3 percent for the week (Chart 4). Last week’s tentative price action comes on the heels of back-to-back strong price action coinciding with a clean breakout at 2540s; in the week before that, breakout retest at 2460s was successful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，上周在周线图上形成了一个难看的流星，周四的高点在周五时显著失去，周五收盘时为 2669 点，周跌幅为 0.3%（见图 4）。上周的犹豫价格走势是在 2540 点的干净突破后，紧随其后的是连续的强劲价格走势；在前一周，2460 点的突破回测是成功的。</p>
</div><p>Last week’s shooting star was followed by a 0.4-percent drop on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周的流星之后，周一又下跌了 0.4%。</p>
</div><p>The Russell 2000 tracks the 2000 smallest companies in the US. The four tech companies reporting this week are excluded from the index. But trader sentiment can get influenced depending on how the S&amp;P 500 trades. It is equally possible money gravitates toward small-caps in a tech selloff; this is a perfect scenario for small-cap bulls looking to nullify the candles of November and December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Russell 2000 追踪的是美国 2000 家最小的公司。本周发布财报的四家科技公司不在该指数内。但交易者的情绪可能会受到 S&amp;P 500 交易情况的影响。在科技股抛售时，资金也可能流向小型股；这对希望消除 11 月和 12 月蜡烛影响的小型股多头来说是一个完美的场景。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-5-3-1024x656.png" alt="" original-src="https://hedgopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Chart-5-3-1024x656.png"/></p>
<p>In the meantime, the sell-side is showing caution in raising their 2026 numbers. As of last Wednesday, these analysts were expecting $96.27 in operating earnings of S&amp;P 600 companies (Chart 5). Estimates are flat over the past six months, with a little fluctuation along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，卖方分析师在提高 2026 年预期时表现出谨慎。截至上周三，这些分析师预计 S&amp;P 600 公司的运营收益为 96.27 美元（见图 5）。过去六个月的预期保持平稳，期间略有波动。</p>
</div><p>Another way of looking at this is that the sell-side was way optimistic in February last year when they were modeling in $106.48 for this year. This usually happens. These analysts start out optimistic and gradually lower their numbers as the year progresses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一种看法是，卖方在去年二月份对今年的预测过于乐观，预计为 106.48 美元。这种情况通常会发生。这些分析师一开始持乐观态度，随着年份的推移逐渐下调他们的预测。</p>
</div><p>Viewed this way, estimates are likely not done going down. Currently, earnings this year are expected to soar north of 44 percent, which would have followed the expected growth rate of nearly eight percent last year. For 2025, the sell-side in May 2024 was expecting $102.88; with one quarter of earnings remaining, 2025 is on pace to ring up $66.68.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个角度来看，估计值可能还没有到底。目前，今年的收益预计将超过 44% 的增长，这将跟随去年近 8% 的预期增长率。对于 2025 年，卖方在 2024 年 5 月的预期为 102.88 美元；在剩下一个季度的收益情况下，2025 年的预期收益为 66.68 美元。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Commitment Of Traders: Noncommercial Positions And Futures</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者承诺：非商业头寸与期货</p>
</div><p>Margin Debt In Cooperation, Equity Allocation At Record</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>保证金债务合作，股权配置创纪录</p>
</div><p>CoT: How Hedge Funds Are Positioned, Peek Into Future Through Futures</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CoT：对冲基金的头寸，通过期货窥探未来</p>
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4 Of Mag 7 Publish Calendar 4Q25 Numbers This Week

- 四家重量级科技公司本周将公布财报，影响大型股指数。  
- 这些公司合计市值超过 10 万亿美元，结果至关重要。  
- 小盘股可能间接受益或受损，反映市场情绪。

MAG 7 中的四家公司将在本周公布 2025 年第四季度的财务数据