<p>晚周期经济被定义为宏观经济周期的最后阶段，此时经济活动达到顶峰。该阶段的特点是高但放缓的增长、可能影响利润生成的通货膨胀上升、紧张的劳动力市场以及利率的波动。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，许多市场参与者正在考虑如何最好地进行多样化，以应对一个以市场风险加剧和未来企业利润及经济增长的不确定性为特征的环境。由于标普 500®目前高度集中于少数几个行业和股票，因此应对这些挑战可能涉及一系列策略——从广泛的资产配置到更具选择性的股票挑选。</p>
<p>在这篇博客中，我们将探讨标普 500 市场领袖指数作为一种潜在的战略解决方案。该指数于 2024 年 11 月 11 日推出，跟踪在标普 500®中被识别为持续高自由现金流利润率、强投资资本回报率和显著市场份额的领先公司。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，标普 500 表现强劲，得益于持续的动能。标普 500 市场领袖指数的表现也相较于其基准表现良好。在长期回测期间，标普 500 市场领袖指数交出了强劲的业绩，在绝对收益和风险调整后收益方面均超越了标普 500（见图表 1）。</p>
<p>此外，该指数在大多数市场下行期间历史上表现优于标普 500，同时显示出较低的波动性和降低的下行捕捉比率。这种表现尤其在经济周期的后期阶段显得尤为显著，此时市场更容易受到压力事件的影响。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Long-and-Short-Term-Performance.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Long-and-Short-Term-Performance.png"/></p>
<p>从基本面来看，标普 500 市场领袖指数最类似于传统的质量策略——跟踪那些通常表现出更高利润率、强投资回报和较低杠杆的成分股（见图表 2）。该策略对更高盈利能力的显著强调可能使其比其他质量策略更具防御性，因为最盈利的股票通常具有更大的 “安全边际”，使其能够在经济冲击或增长放缓时仍保持盈利。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-The-SP-500-Market-Leaders-Index-Had-Stronger-Quality-Metrics-than-the-SP-500.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-The-SP-500-Market-Leaders-Index-Had-Stronger-Quality-Metrics-than-the-SP-500.png"/></p>
<p>对高市场份额的关注增强了该指数的整体防御特性，因为拥有大量市场份额的公司通常受益于竞争优势，从而在其商业模式周围建立起防御性的 “护城河”。防御性护城河的具体好处可能包括定价权（允许将更高的成本通胀转嫁到定价上）、较低的采购成本以及利用规模经济或网络效应来维持收入，从而使公司在整个商业周期中保持盈利。</p>
<p>质量特征在某些行业中的共鸣可能比其他行业更强。图表 3 显示，历史上信息技术和消费品行业的超配程度最高。然而，金融行业目前的权重远高于历史水平，减少了该行业的低配。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-The-Impact-of-Sectors.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-The-Impact-of-Sectors.png"/></p>
<p>标普 500 市场领袖指数包括 7 家杰出公司中的 5 家（不包括亚马逊或特斯拉）。这些公司分布在信息技术、消费服务和通信服务领域。这些成分股在指数中的总权重为 22.7%，而标普 500 基准宇宙的权重为 34.9%。</p>
<p>标普 500 市场领袖指数在经济压力期间的强劲超越在回测期间得到了实证证明，该指数在所有宏观经济环境中均超越了标普 500——尤其是在增长放缓的环境中。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-Monthly-Excess-Returns-in-Macroeconomic-Environment.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-Monthly-Excess-Returns-in-Macroeconomic-Environment.png"/></p>
<p>标普 500 市场领袖指数可能为相对于基准宇宙提供多样化的来源，可能为应对晚周期市场条件提供框架。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>闪耀的不仅仅是黄金：2025 年主题表现回顾</p>
<p>休斯顿，我们有一个指数：探索标普 Kensho 全球太空指数</p>
<p>私人信贷的快速崛起与 BDC 的扩展角色</p>

EGLE

FLAG

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

标普 500 指数

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - iShares

<p>标普 500 市场领袖指数于 2024 年 11 月 11 日推出，旨在应对高增长、通胀上升和市场波动等特征的晚周期经济中的挑战。该指数追踪自由现金流利润率高和投资资本回报率强的领先公司。历史上，该指数在经济下行期间表现优于标普 500，展现出较低的波动性和防御性质量策略。它包括七大巨头中的五家公司，并可能在晚周期市场条件下提供多样化的好处</p>

<p>The late-cycle economy is defined as the final phase of the macroeconomic cycle when economic activity hits its peak. The period is characterized by high but slowing growth, rising inflation that may affect profit generation, a tight labor market and volatility in interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>晚周期经济被定义为宏观经济周期的最后阶段，此时经济活动达到顶峰。该阶段的特点是高但放缓的增长、可能影响利润生成的通货膨胀上升、紧张的劳动力市场以及利率的波动。</p>
</div><p>Given these conditions, many market participants are considering how best to approach diversification to navigate an environment characterized by heightened market risk and uncertainty around future corporate profits and economic growth. With the S&amp;P 500® currently highly concentrated in a few sectors and stocks, addressing these challenges can involve a range of strategies—from broad asset allocation to more selective stock picking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，许多市场参与者正在考虑如何最好地进行多样化，以应对一个以市场风险加剧和未来企业利润及经济增长的不确定性为特征的环境。由于标普 500®目前高度集中于少数几个行业和股票，因此应对这些挑战可能涉及一系列策略——从广泛的资产配置到更具选择性的股票挑选。</p>
</div><p>In this blog, we examine the S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index as a potential strategic solution. Launched on Nov. 11, 2024, this index tracks leading companies within The 500® as identified by their consistently high free cash flow margins, strong returns on invested capital and significant market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这篇博客中，我们将探讨标普 500 市场领袖指数作为一种潜在的战略解决方案。该指数于 2024 年 11 月 11 日推出，跟踪在标普 500®中被识别为持续高自由现金流利润率、强投资资本回报率和显著市场份额的领先公司。</p>
</div><p>In 2025, The 500 recorded strong performance, driven by ongoing momentum. The S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index also performed well compared to its benchmark. Over the long-term back-tested period, the S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index delivered strong results, outperforming The 500 both in absolute terms and on a risk-adjusted basis (see Exhibit 1).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，标普 500 表现强劲，得益于持续的动能。标普 500 市场领袖指数的表现也相较于其基准表现良好。在长期回测期间，标普 500 市场领袖指数交出了强劲的业绩，在绝对收益和风险调整后收益方面均超越了标普 500（见图表 1）。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the index has historically outperformed The 500 during most market downturns while showing lower volatility and a reduced downside capture ratio. This performance can be especially notable in the late stages of the economic cycle, when markets are more prone to stress events.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，该指数在大多数市场下行期间历史上表现优于标普 500，同时显示出较低的波动性和降低的下行捕捉比率。这种表现尤其在经济周期的后期阶段显得尤为显著，此时市场更容易受到压力事件的影响。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Long-and-Short-Term-Performance.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-1-Long-and-Short-Term-Performance.png"/></p>
<p>Fundamentally, the S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index is most similar to a traditional quality strategy—tracking constituents that tend to demonstrate higher margins, strong returns on capital and lower leverage (see Exhibit 2). The strategy’s significant emphasis on higher profitability may render it more defensive than other quality strategies because the most profitable stocks typically have a larger “margin of safety,” allowing them to withstand economic shocks or slowing growth while remaining profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从基本面来看，标普 500 市场领袖指数最类似于传统的质量策略——跟踪那些通常表现出更高利润率、强投资回报和较低杠杆的成分股（见图表 2）。该策略对更高盈利能力的显著强调可能使其比其他质量策略更具防御性，因为最盈利的股票通常具有更大的 “安全边际”，使其能够在经济冲击或增长放缓时仍保持盈利。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-The-SP-500-Market-Leaders-Index-Had-Stronger-Quality-Metrics-than-the-SP-500.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-2-The-SP-500-Market-Leaders-Index-Had-Stronger-Quality-Metrics-than-the-SP-500.png"/></p>
<p>The focus on high market share bolsters the index’s overall defensive characteristics, as companies with substantial market share typically benefit from competitive advantages that establish a defensive “moat” around their business models. Tangible benefits of a defensive moat may include pricing power (allowing higher cost inflation to be passed through to pricing), lower sourcing costs and the ability to leverage economies of scale or network effects to sustain revenue, thereby enabling companies to remain profitable throughout the business cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对高市场份额的关注增强了该指数的整体防御特性，因为拥有大量市场份额的公司通常受益于竞争优势，从而在其商业模式周围建立起防御性的 “护城河”。防御性护城河的具体好处可能包括定价权（允许将更高的成本通胀转嫁到定价上）、较低的采购成本以及利用规模经济或网络效应来维持收入，从而使公司在整个商业周期中保持盈利。</p>
</div><p>Quality characteristics may resonate more in some sectors than others. Exhibit 3 shows that historically the highest overweight has been in the Information Technology and Consumer Staples sectors. However, the current weight in Financials is much higher than it has been historically, reducing the underweight in the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>质量特征在某些行业中的共鸣可能比其他行业更强。图表 3 显示，历史上信息技术和消费品行业的超配程度最高。然而，金融行业目前的权重远高于历史水平，减少了该行业的低配。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-The-Impact-of-Sectors.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-3-The-Impact-of-Sectors.png"/></p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index includes 5 of the Magnificent 7 companies (it does not contain Amazon or Tesla). These companies are distributed across Information Technology, Consumer Services and Communication Services. The total weight of these constituents in the index is 22.7%, however the S&amp;P 500 benchmark universe holds a 34.9% weight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 市场领袖指数包括 7 家杰出公司中的 5 家（不包括亚马逊或特斯拉）。这些公司分布在信息技术、消费服务和通信服务领域。这些成分股在指数中的总权重为 22.7%，而标普 500 基准宇宙的权重为 34.9%。</p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index’s strong outperformance in periods of economic stress is empirically demonstrated in the back-tested period, where the index outperformed The 500 across all macroeconomic environments—most significantly in falling growth environments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 市场领袖指数在经济压力期间的强劲超越在回测期间得到了实证证明，该指数在所有宏观经济环境中均超越了标普 500——尤其是在增长放缓的环境中。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-Monthly-Excess-Returns-in-Macroeconomic-Environment.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.indexologyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Exhibit-4-Monthly-Excess-Returns-in-Macroeconomic-Environment.png"/></p>
<p>The S&amp;P 500 Market Leaders Index may provide a source of diversification relative to the benchmark universe, potentially providing a framework for navigating late-cycle market conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标普 500 市场领袖指数可能为相对于基准宇宙提供多样化的来源，可能为应对晚周期市场条件提供框架。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>All That Glitters Isn’t Just Gold: 2025 Thematic Performance In Review</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>闪耀的不仅仅是黄金：2025 年主题表现回顾</p>
</div><p>Houston, We Have An Index: Exploring the S&amp;P Kensho Global Space Index</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>休斯顿，我们有一个指数：探索标普 Kensho 全球太空指数</p>
</div><p>The Rapid Rise Of Private Credit And The Expanding Role Of BDCs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信贷的快速崛起与 BDC 的扩展角色</p>
</div>

Fashionably Late Cycle: The S&P 500 Market Leaders Index

- 文章分析晚周期经济的特征及市场风险应对策略。  
- S&P 500 市场领袖指数有助于投资者实现多样化。  
- 该指数在经济压力时期表现强劲，适合当前市场环境。

时尚地迟到的周期：标普 500 市场领导者指数