<p>美国大型银行报告利润上升，贷款增加</p>
<p>美联储政策制定者手中掌握最新的银行贷款调查</p>
<p>金融市场押注美联储今年晚些时候将进行两次 25 个基点的降息</p>
<p>作者：安·萨菲尔</p>
<p>1 月 28 日（路透社）- 仍然高企的通胀和虽然有所减弱但尚未崩溃的劳动力市场是美联储广泛预期将在周三结束为期两天的会议时维持美国政策利率不变的主要原因。</p>
<p>但在边际上，稍微宽松的信贷条件也可能有助于在至少目前的情况下反对降息。</p>
<p>银行贷款需求的增加在调查和最新一轮银行财报中显而易见，这表明借贷成本并未过度限制企业投资或消费者支出。分析师表示，他们预计这一趋势将持续。</p>
<p>“展望未来，我们预计随着经济增长在财政刺激的推动下加快，不确定性减弱，企业和消费者保持强劲的资产负债表，银行将变得更加愿意放贷，” 全国性经济学家奥伦·克拉赫金表示，并补充说特朗普政府推动的激进放松监管也应导致银行比其他情况下更愿意提供信贷。</p>
<p>虽然美联储最新的银行状况调查要到下周才会公布，但 1 月份的高级贷款官员意见调查的结果原定于本周交到政策制定者手中。</p>
<p>11 月份的调查显示，尽管银行收紧了信贷条款，但企业和住房的贷款需求仍在上升。</p>
<p>达拉斯联储的最新调查显示，德克萨斯州的银行在 12 月份的贷款和贷款需求继续上升，其经历通常与全国贷款机构的整体情况相似。</p>
<p>调查显示，银行普遍持乐观态度，预计上半年贷款需求和商业活动将上升，同时贷款表现略有恶化。</p>
<p>大型银行高管警告称，特朗普总统提议的信用卡利率上限为 10% 可能导致贷款减少。尽管如此，华尔街最大的银行报告称利润上升，消费者和企业的借贷增加。</p>
<p>在美国资产规模最大的两家银行摩根大通和美国银行，平均贷款在上个季度分别增长了 9% 和 8%。</p>
<p>“更广泛的金融条件宽松，并逐渐变得更加宽松，这将支持今年的经济增长，” 牛津经济学分析师迈克尔·皮尔斯表示。</p>
<p>目前金融市场预计在下半年将进行两次 25 个基点的降息。</p>
<p>最终，美联储政策制定者关注其价格稳定和健康劳动力市场的两个目标，这些指标将在未来几个月的决策中始终处于核心位置。</p>
<p>“美联储对其双重任务的两个部分的方向性不确定，因此银行贷款在更直接评估近期通胀和失业的其他指标面前显得不那么重要，” 纳蒂克斯经济学家克里斯托弗·霍奇表示。“增长强劲，失业率良好，通胀高企。为什么要降息？”</p>

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<p>美联储预计将维持美国政策利率，因为银行贷款和利润上升，这表明信贷条件并不过于紧缩。分析师预测，随着经济增长改善，银行将增加贷款。尽管对提议的利率上限存在担忧，但主要银行报告了更高的利润和贷款需求。金融市场预计今年晚些时候将进行两次 25 个基点的降息，但美联储仍然关注通胀和劳动力市场的稳定，因此银行贷款在其决策过程中是次要考虑因素</p>

<p>Big US banks report higher profits, increase in lending</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国大型银行报告利润上升，贷款增加</p>
</div><p>Fed policymakers have latest bank lending survey in hand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储政策制定者手中掌握最新的银行贷款调查</p>
</div><p>Financial markets bet on two quarter-point Fed rate cuts later this year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融市场押注美联储今年晚些时候将进行两次 25 个基点的降息</p>
</div><p>By Ann Saphir</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安·萨菲尔</p>
</div><p>Jan 28 (Reuters) - Still-elevated inflation and a labor market that has weakened but not collapsed are the main reasons the Federal Reserve is widely expected to wrap up its two-day meeting Wednesday with a hold on the U.S. policy rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月 28 日（路透社）- 仍然高企的通胀和虽然有所减弱但尚未崩溃的劳动力市场是美联储广泛预期将在周三结束为期两天的会议时维持美国政策利率不变的主要原因。</p>
</div><p>But on the margin, somewhat easier credit conditions may also help make the case against cutting interest rates, at least for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在边际上，稍微宽松的信贷条件也可能有助于在至少目前的情况下反对降息。</p>
</div><p>Increased demand for bank loans, evident in surveys and in the latest round of bank earnings reports, suggests that borrowing costs are not overly constraining businesses from investing or consumers from spending. Analysts say they anticipate that trend will continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行贷款需求的增加在调查和最新一轮银行财报中显而易见，这表明借贷成本并未过度限制企业投资或消费者支出。分析师表示，他们预计这一趋势将持续。</p>
</div><p>“Looking ahead, we expect banks will become more willing to lend as economic growth picks up on the back of fiscal stimulus, uncertainty diminishes and businesses and consumers maintain strong balance sheets,” said Nationwide economist Oren Klachkin, adding that aggressive deregulation pushed by the Trump administration should also lead banks to extend more credit than otherwise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“展望未来，我们预计随着经济增长在财政刺激的推动下加快，不确定性减弱，企业和消费者保持强劲的资产负债表，银行将变得更加愿意放贷，” 全国性经济学家奥伦·克拉赫金表示，并补充说特朗普政府推动的激进放松监管也应导致银行比其他情况下更愿意提供信贷。</p>
</div><p>While the Fed’s latest survey on banking conditions won’t be published until next week, findings from the January Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey were scheduled to be in policymakers’ hands this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然美联储最新的银行状况调查要到下周才会公布，但 1 月份的高级贷款官员意见调查的结果原定于本周交到政策制定者手中。</p>
</div><p>November’s survey showed rising loan demand, particularly from businesses and for homes, even as banks tightened credit terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月份的调查显示，尽管银行收紧了信贷条款，但企业和住房的贷款需求仍在上升。</p>
</div><p>A more recent survey from the Dallas Fed showed lending and demand for loans continued to rise in December at Texas banks, whose experiences often mirror those of the nation’s lenders as a whole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>达拉斯联储的最新调查显示，德克萨斯州的银行在 12 月份的贷款和贷款需求继续上升，其经历通常与全国贷款机构的整体情况相似。</p>
</div><p>Banks were generally optimistic, the survey showed, expecting rising loan demand and business activity in the first half of the year, along with a slight deterioration in loan performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>调查显示，银行普遍持乐观态度，预计上半年贷款需求和商业活动将上升，同时贷款表现略有恶化。</p>
</div><p>Big bank executives have warned that President Donald Trump’s proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates could result in a pullback in lending. Even so, Wall Street’s biggest banks reported rising profits and increased borrowing from both consumers and businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型银行高管警告称，特朗普总统提议的信用卡利率上限为 10% 可能导致贷款减少。尽管如此，华尔街最大的银行报告称利润上升，消费者和企业的借贷增加。</p>
</div><p>Average loans climbed 9% last quarter at JPMorgan Chase and 8% at Bank of America, the top two U.S. banks by assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国资产规模最大的两家银行摩根大通和美国银行，平均贷款在上个季度分别增长了 9% 和 8%。</p>
</div><p>“Broader financial conditions are loose and getting gradually looser, which will support economic growth this year,” said Oxford Economics analyst Michael Pearce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“更广泛的金融条件宽松，并逐渐变得更加宽松，这将支持今年的经济增长，” 牛津经济学分析师迈克尔·皮尔斯表示。</p>
</div><p>For now financial markets are pricing two quarter-point interest-rate cuts in the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前金融市场预计在下半年将进行两次 25 个基点的降息。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, Fed policymakers are focused on their two goals of price stability and a healthy labor market, and those metrics will remain front and center as they weigh what to do in coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，美联储政策制定者关注其价格稳定和健康劳动力市场的两个目标，这些指标将在未来几个月的决策中始终处于核心位置。</p>
</div><p>“The Fed is uncertain about the directionality of both parts of its dual mandate so bank lending takes a back seat to other indicators that more directly assess near-term inflation and joblessness,” said Natixis’ economist Christopher Hodge. “Growth is strong, the unemployment rate is fine, and inflation is high. Why cut?”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美联储对其双重任务的两个部分的方向性不确定，因此银行贷款在更直接评估近期通胀和失业的其他指标面前显得不那么重要，” 纳蒂克斯经济学家克里斯托弗·霍奇表示。“增长强劲，失业率良好，通胀高企。为什么要降息？”</p>
</div>

For Fed, uptick in bank lending may add to case against rate cuts

- 美国大型银行报告利润上升，贷款需求增加。  
- 美联储将维持利率不变，金融市场预计将降息两次。  
- 银行对未来贷款需求持乐观态度，经济增长预期上升。

对于美联储而言，银行贷款的增长可能会加强反对降息的理由