<p><strong>Astrana Health Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ASTH) 的股票在周二下跌约 22%，收于 21.48 美元。</p>
<p>这一反应是由于医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心（CMS）在周一概述了针对医疗保险优势计划的拟议方法和支付政策更新，指出 2027 年将有适度的支付增长，同时强调项目的可持续性、准确性和行政简便性。</p>
<p>如果最终确定，这些提案将导致净平均年增长支付仅为 0.09%，这将转化为对医疗保险优势计划超过 7 亿美元的额外支付。</p>
<p>《华尔街日报》援引分析师的观点指出，预计医疗保险机构将提议 2027 年支付 增长在 4% 到 6% 之间。</p>
<h2>分析师观点</h2>
<p><strong>William Blair</strong> 在周二表示，&#34;总体而言，我们对 Astrana Health 股票承受的压力感到惊讶。&#34;</p>
<p>Astrana Health 是一家管理服务组织（MSO），由医疗专业人员和 600 多名员工组成，服务于独立医生协会（IPA）和医疗集团。该公司提供全面的行政支持和各种辅助服务。</p>
<p>分析师 <strong>Ryan Daniels</strong> 指出，医疗保险 约占 Astrana Health 收入的 61%。尽管如此，该公司的股票下跌幅度比他覆盖的几家纯医疗保险优势同行更为明显。</p>
<p>相比之下，<strong>Agilon Health Inc.</strong> (NYSE: AGL) 下跌约 10%，而 <strong>Alignment Healthcare Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ALHC) 下跌约 12%，这两者的表现相对 Astrana 的价格波动显得更为合理。</p>
<p>William Blair 表示，Astrana Health 的风险调整实践与许多大型支付方不同，因为该公司不使用仅音频的访问或独立的图表审查。</p>
<p>相反，风险评分是通过直接的、基于接触的患者护理来驱动的，这对其模型至关重要。</p>
<p>因此，尽管 CMS 估计这些不被允许的诊断来源对整体 MA 市场的风险评分影响为 1.53%，但分析师 Daniels 在周二表示，Astrana 对此逆风的暴露非常小。</p>
<p>第三，William Blair 写道，拟议的变化实际上可能增强公司的长期价值，因为支付方需要寻找完全委托的护理交付合作伙伴来帮助他们管理患者（和成本）并通过接触数据更好地记录临床诊断——尤其是在缺乏&#34;图表提取&#34;和仅音频访问的情况下。</p>
<h2>为什么股票看起来便宜？</h2>
<p>&#34;在这里，我们认为 Astrana Health 提供了一种目标一致的合作伙伴模式来实现这一目标。因此，这可能会在 2027 年及以后促使与 MA 计划达成更多的委托合同协议，&#34;分析师 Daniels 补充道。</p>
<p>鉴于此次抛售，<strong>Astrana Health</strong> 的股票现在仅以预计 2027 年销售的 0.4 倍和约 6 倍的 EV/2027 调整后 EBITDA 进行交易，William Blair 认为这是一个对一家盈利能力强、运营模式稳健且领导团队经验丰富的公司的有吸引力的入场点。该分析师 重申了跑赢大盘的评级。</p>
<p><strong>价格动态</strong>：根据 Benzinga Pro 数据，Astrana Health 的股票在周二的盘后交易中上涨 3.86%，至 22.31 美元。</p>
<p><em>照片由 T. Schneider 通过 Shutterstock 提供</em></p>

ASTH

<p>Astrana Health 的股票因 CMS 提议的温和医疗保险优势增长下跌了 22%，至 21.48 美元。分析师认为此次抛售过度，指出长期利益可能会出现。医疗保险占该公司收入的 61%，尽管出现下滑，Astrana 的风险暴露与同行相比仍然较小。根据威廉·布莱尔的分析，该股票目前的交易价格为预计 2027 年销售额的 0.4 倍，呈现出一个有吸引力的入场点，并维持 “跑赢大盘” 的评级。盘后交易中，股价上涨了 3.86%，达到 22.31 美元</p>

<p><strong>Astrana Health Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ASTH) stock on Tuesday fell around 22% to close at $21.48.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Astrana Health Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ASTH) 的股票在周二下跌约 22%，收于 21.48 美元。</p>
</div><p>The reaction was due to the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services (CMS) on Monday outlining proposed methodological and payment policy updates for Medicare Advantage that point to modest payment growth in 2027 while emphasizing program sustainability, accuracy, and administrative simplicity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一反应是由于医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心（CMS）在周一概述了针对医疗保险优势计划的拟议方法和支付政策更新，指出 2027 年将有适度的支付增长，同时强调项目的可持续性、准确性和行政简便性。</p>
</div><p>If finalized, the proposals would result in a net average year-over-year payment increase of mere 0.09%, translating to more than $700 million in additional payments to Medicare Advantage plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果最终确定，这些提案将导致净平均年增长支付仅为 0.09%，这将转化为对医疗保险优势计划超过 7 亿美元的额外支付。</p>
</div><p>Citing analysts, the Wall Street Journal noted that it was estimated that the Medicare agency would propose a 2027 rate increase of between 4% and 6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《华尔街日报》援引分析师的观点指出，预计医疗保险机构将提议 2027 年支付 增长在 4% 到 6% 之间。</p>
</div><h2>Analyst Take</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分析师观点</h2>
</div><p><strong>William Blair</strong> on Tuesday wrote, &#34;Overall, we are surprised to see the level of pressure on Astrana Health shares.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>William Blair</strong> 在周二表示，&#34;总体而言，我们对 Astrana Health 股票承受的压力感到惊讶。&#34;</p>
</div><p>Astrana Health is a Management Services Organization (MSO) comprised of healthcare professionals and more than 600 employee associates serving Independent Physicians Associations (IPAs) and Medical Groups. The company offers comprehensive administrative support and various auxiliary services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Astrana Health 是一家管理服务组织（MSO），由医疗专业人员和 600 多名员工组成，服务于独立医生协会（IPA）和医疗集团。该公司提供全面的行政支持和各种辅助服务。</p>
</div><p>Analyst <strong>Ryan Daniels</strong> noted that Medicare accounts for about 61% of Astrana Health's revenue. Despite this, the stock declined more sharply than several pure-play Medicare Advantage peers in his coverage universe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师 <strong>Ryan Daniels</strong> 指出，医疗保险 约占 Astrana Health 收入的 61%。尽管如此，该公司的股票下跌幅度比他覆盖的几家纯医疗保险优势同行更为明显。</p>
</div><p>By comparison, <strong>Agilon Health Inc.</strong> (NYSE: AGL) fell about 10%, while <strong>Alignment Healthcare Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ALHC) dropped roughly 12%, both of which seem more reasonable relative to Astrana's price move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，<strong>Agilon Health Inc.</strong> (NYSE: AGL) 下跌约 10%，而 <strong>Alignment Healthcare Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: ALHC) 下跌约 12%，这两者的表现相对 Astrana 的价格波动显得更为合理。</p>
</div><p>William Blair said Astrana Health's risk adjustment practices differ from many large payers, as the company does not use audio-only visits or standalone chart reviews.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>William Blair 表示，Astrana Health 的风险调整实践与许多大型支付方不同，因为该公司不使用仅音频的访问或独立的图表审查。</p>
</div><p>Instead, risk scores are driven by direct, encounter-based patient care, which is central to its model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，风险评分是通过直接的、基于接触的患者护理来驱动的，这对其模型至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Thus, while CMS estimates that these disallowed diagnosis sources represent a 1.53% risk score impact on the overall MA market, Astrana's exposure to this headwind is very small, analyst Daniels wrote on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管 CMS 估计这些不被允许的诊断来源对整体 MA 市场的风险评分影响为 1.53%，但分析师 Daniels 在周二表示，Astrana 对此逆风的暴露非常小。</p>
</div><p>Thirdly, William Blair wrote that the proposed changes could actually enhance the long-term value of the company, as payers will need to look to fully delegated care delivery partners to help them manage patients (and costs) and better document clinical diagnoses via encounter data— especially in the absence of &#34;chart pulls&#34; and audio-only visits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，William Blair 写道，拟议的变化实际上可能增强公司的长期价值，因为支付方需要寻找完全委托的护理交付合作伙伴来帮助他们管理患者（和成本）并通过接触数据更好地记录临床诊断——尤其是在缺乏&#34;图表提取&#34;和仅音频访问的情况下。</p>
</div><h2>Why The Stock Looks Cheap?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么股票看起来便宜？</h2>
</div><p>&#34;Here, we believe that Astrana Health offers a goal-congruent partnership model to achieve this goal. As such, it could spur more delegated contract agreements with MA plans in 2027 and beyond,&#34; analyst Daniels added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;在这里，我们认为 Astrana Health 提供了一种目标一致的合作伙伴模式来实现这一目标。因此，这可能会在 2027 年及以后促使与 MA 计划达成更多的委托合同协议，&#34;分析师 Daniels 补充道。</p>
</div><p>Given the sell-off, <strong>Astrana Health</strong> shares now trade at only 0.4x estimated 2027 sales and about 6x on an EV/2027 adjusted EBITDA basis, which William Blair views as an attractive entry point for a highly profitable company with a strong operating model and deep and experienced leadership team. The analyst reiterates the Outperform rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于此次抛售，<strong>Astrana Health</strong> 的股票现在仅以预计 2027 年销售的 0.4 倍和约 6 倍的 EV/2027 调整后 EBITDA 进行交易，William Blair 认为这是一个对一家盈利能力强、运营模式稳健且领导团队经验丰富的公司的有吸引力的入场点。该分析师 重申了跑赢大盘的评级。</p>
</div><p><strong>Price Action</strong>: Astrana Health stock jumped 3.86% to $22.31 on Tuesday during after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>价格动态</strong>：根据 Benzinga Pro 数据，Astrana Health 的股票在周二的盘后交易中上涨 3.86%，至 22.31 美元。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo by T. Schneider via Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片由 T. Schneider 通过 Shutterstock 提供</em></p>
</div>

分析师认为，Astrana Health 股票的下跌为投资者提供了一个有吸引力的入场机会