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<p>巴西淡水河谷（Vale）于周二公布了 2025 年第四季度的运营数据，市场分析师对此反响普遍积极，尽管年初通常是最疲软的月份，但股市却出现了反弹。</p>
<p>根据当地媒体 InfoMoney 的报道，2025 年淡水河谷的铁矿石总产量为 3.361 亿吨，比 2024 年增长了 2.6%，尽管受到促进出口措施的影响。</p>
<p>自 2018 年以来，淡水河谷首次超越其在皮尔巴拉的主要竞争对手，即澳大利亚集团的主要生产中心。</p>
<p>得益于力拓（Rio Tinto）生产的 3.273 亿吨，淡水河谷重新夺回了全球最大的铁矿石生产商的地位。</p>
<p>对于在 2019 年因米纳斯吉拉斯州布鲁马迪纽大坝崩溃而失去首位的淡水河谷来说，这一成就具有象征意义。</p>
<p>这场悲剧造成数百人遇难，迫使公司彻底重新评估项目和安全程序，对生产造成了数年的严重影响。</p>
<h2>布鲁马迪纽后的逐步恢复</h2>
<p>近年来，淡水河谷的产量大幅增加，缩小了与力拓的差距。</p>
<p>淡水河谷总裁古斯塔沃·皮门塔（Gustavo Pimenta）多次强调这一恢复轨迹，并表示公司将重新夺回铁矿石的首位。</p>
<p>最新统计数据显示，这一方法正在奏效。在第四季度，铁矿石产量同比增长近 6%，刚好超过了 XP Investimentos 的预期。</p>
<p>由于 Vargem Grande 和 Capanema 的产量增加，以及 Brucutu 的高产量，铁矿石细料的出货量在 2024 年同期增长了 7%。</p>
<p>另一方面，球团销售量同比下降了 10%。</p>
<h2>铜和镍助力增长</h2>
<p>分析师指出，除了铁矿石外，基础金属的表现也相当强劲。XP 指出，铜的生产和销售表现良好，同比增长了 6%。</p>
<p>这些增长得益于 Salobo 的生产改善，该矿实现了创纪录的产量，以及 Sossego 的贡献。</p>
<p>在伦敦金属交易所的参考价格中，铜的实现价格每季度上涨了 1,185 美元/吨。</p>
<p>摩根大通（JPMorgan）将这一季度描述为各个细分市场表现强劲。</p>
<p>在发布 2023 年第一季度铁矿石和铜的生产数据时，该银行表示，这两种商品的产量均为 2018 年以来的最高水平，分别为 3.36 亿吨和 38.2 万吨。</p>
<p>镍的年同比增长也很强劲，得益于巴西的生产，创下了自 2022 年以来的最高产量。</p>
<p>高盛（Goldman Sachs）重申了类似的观察，表示第四季度的铁矿石生产与预期基本一致，而铜的产量超出了其预估和市场共识的 14% 至 19%。</p>
<p>同样，镍的产量也约高出预期的 5%。</p>
<h2>估值、风险与展望</h2>
<p>高盛认为，在经历了几年的低迷表现后，基础金属的稳步复苏可能会促使投资者重新评估淡水河谷。</p>
<p>该银行指出，尽管其他地方有所增长，但塞拉诺特（Serra Norte）的枯竭率在 2025 年仍然较高，约为 10%，同时强调了过去四到八年中的创纪录年产量水平。</p>
<p>在 2025 年强劲增长后，淡水河谷的股价今年迄今已上涨 17%。</p>
<p>高盛表示，商品价格上涨、运营执行改善以及强劲的资本流入巴西都是推动反弹的因素。</p>
<p>今年迄今，淡水河谷的表现超越同行 20%，在 2025 年超越 30%。</p>
<p>该股的交易价格为年自由现金流的 11%，而竞争对手力拓和必和必拓（BHP）为 5%，因此该银行认为淡水河谷的估值颇具吸引力。</p>
<p>此外，还提到了一个降低并购风险和提升运营表现的资本配置计划。</p>
<p>但仍然存在风险。高盛认为，铁矿石价格可能已经在当前周期中达到峰值，预计到 2026 年底将下降 8%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，高盛仍然建议购买淡水河谷的 ADR，目标价为 13.80 美元。BBI 建议超越，目标价为 15 美元，而摩根大通则给予增持评级。</p>
<p>尽管承认公司短期前景改善，XP Investimentos 重申其中性立场，指出在补货期之后铁矿石价格可能会下降。</p>
<p>这篇文章最初发表于 Invezz，标题为《巴西的淡水河谷重新夺回铁矿石领先地位，生产激增增强投资者信心》。</p>

BRAZ

OTGL

iShares拉丁美洲40指数ETF

淡水河谷

<p>淡水河谷已重新夺回全球最大铁矿石生产商的地位，2025 年的产量达到 3.361 亿吨，比 2024 年增长了 2.6%。该公司的复苏是在 2019 年布鲁马迪纽大坝灾难后实现的，该事件严重影响了生产。分析师指出，铜和镍的表现也很强劲，淡水河谷的股票今年上涨了 17%。尽管铁矿石价格可能面临下跌风险，高盛和其他分析师仍然保持乐观，建议购买淡水河谷的 ADR，目标价格在 13.80 美元至 15 美元之间</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/brazil-iron-invezz.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/brazil-iron-invezz.jpg"/></p>
<p>Vale announced its operational data for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Tuesday, which received a broadly positive reception among market analysts amid a rally in equities at the start of the year (seasonally, one of the weakest months).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴西淡水河谷（Vale）于周二公布了 2025 年第四季度的运营数据，市场分析师对此反响普遍积极，尽管年初通常是最疲软的月份，但股市却出现了反弹。</p>
</div><p>According to local media outlet InfoMoney, Vale’s total iron ore production for the calendar year of 2025 was 336.1 million tons, which represents a 2.6% increase from 2024, despite the impacts of facilitating export initiatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据当地媒体 InfoMoney 的报道，2025 年淡水河谷的铁矿石总产量为 3.361 亿吨，比 2024 年增长了 2.6%，尽管受到促进出口措施的影响。</p>
</div><p>For the first time since 2018, Vale outpaced its primary rival in the Pilbara, the Australian group’s primary production hub.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2018 年以来，淡水河谷首次超越其在皮尔巴拉的主要竞争对手，即澳大利亚集团的主要生产中心。</p>
</div><p>Vale was able to reclaim its position as the largest iron ore producer in the world thanks to Rio Tinto’s production of 327.3 mt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益于力拓（Rio Tinto）生产的 3.273 亿吨，淡水河谷重新夺回了全球最大的铁矿石生产商的地位。</p>
</div><p>For Vale, which lost its top spot in 2019 following the collapse of its Brumadinho dam in Minas Gerais, the achievement holds symbolic significance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于在 2019 年因米纳斯吉拉斯州布鲁马迪纽大坝崩溃而失去首位的淡水河谷来说，这一成就具有象征意义。</p>
</div><p>The tragedy, which cost hundreds of lives and forced the company to completely reevaluate projects and safety procedures, had a devastating impact on production for several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这场悲剧造成数百人遇难，迫使公司彻底重新评估项目和安全程序，对生产造成了数年的严重影响。</p>
</div><h2>Gradual recovery after Brumadinho</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>布鲁马迪纽后的逐步恢复</h2>
</div><p>Vale’s output has increased substantially in recent years, closing the gap with Rio Tinto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年来，淡水河谷的产量大幅增加，缩小了与力拓的差距。</p>
</div><p>Gustavo Pimenta, the president of Vale, has frequently emphasised this recovery trajectory and stated that the business would reclaim its top spot in iron ore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淡水河谷总裁古斯塔沃·皮门塔（Gustavo Pimenta）多次强调这一恢复轨迹，并表示公司将重新夺回铁矿石的首位。</p>
</div><p>The most recent statistics indicate that the method is working. In the fourth quarter, iron ore production increased by almost 6% year over year, just exceeding XP Investimentos’ projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新统计数据显示，这一方法正在奏效。在第四季度，铁矿石产量同比增长近 6%，刚好超过了 XP Investimentos 的预期。</p>
</div><p>Due to increases at Vargem Grande and Capanema, as well as higher volumes from Brucutu, shipments of iron ore fines rose 7% over the same period in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 Vargem Grande 和 Capanema 的产量增加，以及 Brucutu 的高产量，铁矿石细料的出货量在 2024 年同期增长了 7%。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, pellet sales volumes decreased by 10% annually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，球团销售量同比下降了 10%。</p>
</div><h2>Copper and nickel add momentum</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>铜和镍助力增长</h2>
</div><p>Outside of iron ore, a firm performance in base metals was notedby analysts. XP pointed out the strong copper production and copper sales, whichgrew 6% on the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师指出，除了铁矿石外，基础金属的表现也相当强劲。XP 指出，铜的生产和销售表现良好，同比增长了 6%。</p>
</div><p>These gains came on the back of improved production at Salobo, which achieved record volumes,as well as Sossego.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些增长得益于 Salobo 的生产改善，该矿实现了创纪录的产量，以及 Sossego 的贡献。</p>
</div><p>Reflected in increases of US$1,185 per ton for every quarter in realised copper prices on the London Metal Exchangereference prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伦敦金属交易所的参考价格中，铜的实现价格每季度上涨了 1,185 美元/吨。</p>
</div><p>JPMorgan described the quarter asstrong across each of its segments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通（JPMorgan）将这一季度描述为各个细分市场表现强劲。</p>
</div><p>Releasing data for iron ore and copper production for the first quarter of 2023, the bank said the output of both commodities was at its highest since2018, at 336 million tons and 382,000 tons, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在发布 2023 年第一季度铁矿石和铜的生产数据时，该银行表示，这两种商品的产量均为 2018 年以来的最高水平，分别为 3.36 亿吨和 38.2 万吨。</p>
</div><p>Year-on-year growth was strong for nickelproduction as well, bolstered by Brazil, where production hit a record high, resulting in the strongest output year to date since all of 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>镍的年同比增长也很强劲，得益于巴西的生产，创下了自 2022 年以来的最高产量。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs reiterated similar observations, stating that ironore production in the fourth quarter was widely consistent with expectations, while copper output outperformed both its estimates and the market consensus by 14% to 19%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛（Goldman Sachs）重申了类似的观察，表示第四季度的铁矿石生产与预期基本一致，而铜的产量超出了其预估和市场共识的 14% 至 19%。</p>
</div><p>Likewise, nickel production was approximately5% above expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，镍的产量也约高出预期的 5%。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation, risks and outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值、风险与展望</h2>
</div><p>After several years of poor performance, Goldman Sachs contended that the steady recovery in base metals might lead investors to reevaluate Vale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛认为，在经历了几年的低迷表现后，基础金属的稳步复苏可能会促使投资者重新评估淡水河谷。</p>
</div><p>The bank noted that Serra Norte’s depletion remained high in 2025, at about 10%, despite gains elsewhere, while highlighting record yearly production levels during the previous four to eight years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该银行指出，尽管其他地方有所增长，但塞拉诺特（Serra Norte）的枯竭率在 2025 年仍然较高，约为 10%，同时强调了过去四到八年中的创纪录年产量水平。</p>
</div><p>After a robust increase in 2025, Vale’s shares have increased 17% so far this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年强劲增长后，淡水河谷的股价今年迄今已上涨 17%。</p>
</div><p>Goldman claims that increased commodity prices, better operational execution, and strong capital flows into Brazil are all contributing factors to the rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛表示，商品价格上涨、运营执行改善以及强劲的资本流入巴西都是推动反弹的因素。</p>
</div><p>Vale has outpaced peers by 20% so far this year and by 30% in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年迄今，淡水河谷的表现超越同行 20%，在 2025 年超越 30%。</p>
</div><p>With the stock trading at 11% of annual free cash flow on a spot basis, as opposed to 5% for competitors Rio Tinto and BHP, the bank finds Vale’s valuation to be somewhat appealing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该股的交易价格为年自由现金流的 11%，而竞争对手力拓和必和必拓（BHP）为 5%，因此该银行认为淡水河谷的估值颇具吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, a capital allocation plan with reduced merger and acquisition risk and enhanced operational performance was mentioned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，还提到了一个降低并购风险和提升运营表现的资本配置计划。</p>
</div><p>But there are still dangers. Iron ore prices may have already peaked in the current cycle, according to Goldman Sachs, which projects an 8% decline by the end of 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但仍然存在风险。高盛认为，铁矿石价格可能已经在当前周期中达到峰值，预计到 2026 年底将下降 8%。</p>
</div><p>In spite of this, Goldman continues to advise buying Vale’s ADRs, with a target price of US$13.80. BBI advises outperforming with a US$15 target, while JPMorgan has an overweight rating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，高盛仍然建议购买淡水河谷的 ADR，目标价为 13.80 美元。BBI 建议超越，目标价为 15 美元，而摩根大通则给予增持评级。</p>
</div><p>While acknowledging an improved short-term outlook for the company, XP Investimentos reaffirmed its neutral position, noting prospects of lower iron ore prices beyond the restocking period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管承认公司短期前景改善，XP Investimentos 重申其中性立场，指出在补货期之后铁矿石价格可能会下降。</p>
</div><p>The post Brazil’s Vale reclaims iron ore lead as production surge bolsters investor confidence appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章最初发表于 Invezz，标题为《巴西的淡水河谷重新夺回铁矿石领先地位，生产激增增强投资者信心》。</p>
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巴西的淡水河谷通过产量激增重新夺回了铁矿石的领先地位，这增强了投资者的信心