<p><strong>关键要点：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>中国的办公市场面临极端的供过于求和上升的空置率，但政府对开发商的支持正在避免重大破产</li>
<li>快速增长的饺子连锁店 Yuen Kee 为投资者提供了一个有前景的价值投资机会，尽管在出口其模式方面可能面临挑战</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/28050341/%E5%B1%8F%E5%B9%95%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_28-1-2026_13225_thebambooworks.com_-1024x650.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/28050341/%E5%B1%8F%E5%B9%95%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_28-1-2026_13225_thebambooworks.com_-1024x650.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Bamboo Works</em></p>
<p>中国经济目前呈现出基础设施雄心与消费者日常现实之间的鲜明对比。一方面，我们看到一个疲软的房地产市场，办公空间严重过剩。另一方面，我们看到低成本餐饮行业的韧性，以一家希望成为汉堡快餐替代品的 饺子连锁店 为例。一个在与过去的过度建设作斗争，而消费者则在寻找价值。</p>
<p>我们首先关注商业房地产市场，由于其规模相较于庞大的住宅市场较小，常常被忽视。与住宅市场类似，办公市场在过去二十年中也经历了大规模的过度建设。这在南方的繁荣城市深圳尤为明显，去年供需比飙升至 2.7 比 1。</p>
<p>经济放缓无疑是部分原因。净吸纳率——一个衡量已占用办公空间净变化的指标——从 2021 年的 334 万平方米的高峰降至过去三年每年仅 110 万至 120 万平方米。尽管空置率不断上升，但新的玻璃大楼仍在不断拔地而起。</p>
<p>在西方市场，这种情况通常会导致新建筑的暂停，持续数年甚至十年。市场纪律会迫使开发商停止。然而，在中国，许多办公开发商由中央、省或市政府拥有或支持。这些实体通常觉得他们有 “顺风而行” 的动力，可以持续建设以支持经济增长。</p>
<p>因此，我们尚未看到该行业出现任何高调的破产。我们认为这里存在一种在欧洲或美国等自由市场中不存在的机制。政府可以通过迫使其他国有企业放弃旧建筑并迁入新建筑来支持这些开发商。虽然这种人为支持有所帮助，但令人担忧的是，人工智能的崛起及其可能减少劳动力的潜力，给办公需求带来了未来的阴影。最终，就像住宅市场一样，我们怀疑某个 “火花” 可能会引发危机，迫使政府介入并冻结开发活动。</p>
<h4>“饺子的麦当劳”</h4>
<p>当办公大楼空置时，满足中国 14 亿人口的餐饮业务依然强劲，尤其是在价值端。这将我们带到了 <strong>Yuen Kee</strong>，一家本月申请在香港上市的饺子连锁店。该公司成立于 2017 年，截至去年九月，迅速成为中国的饺子之王，拥有 4266 家门店。</p>
<p>我们认为 Yuen Kee 在当前气候中有潜力成为赢家。随着消费者信心持续疲软，食客们不断寻找价值。Yuen Kee 的运营规模和效率与 <strong>麦当劳</strong> (NYSE: MCD) 相当，提供在干净环境中受欢迎的基础食品。</p>
<p>该连锁店也在向海外扩展，2024 年在新加坡开设了第一家海外门店，计划在当地发展到 10 家门店。然而，我们认为全球扩张面临挑战。我们在火锅连锁店 <strong>海底捞</strong> (6862.HK) 扩展到美国时见证了这一点。</p>
<p>起初，大家都非常兴奋。现在兴奋依然存在——但他们已经没有以前的热度了。</p>
<p>虽然饺子在全球华人社区中受到欢迎，但让非亚裔消费者超越初步好奇心则是另一个问题。我们认为 Yuen Kee 明智的做法是专注于东南亚市场，如印度尼西亚和马来西亚，这里有大量华人社区，生活水平与他们的定价模式相符。</p>
<p>最终，无论是填补空置办公室还是销售饺子，关键在于纪律。对于房地产行业来说，需要停止 “建造就会有人来” 的心态。对于 Yuen Kee 来说，这意味着在不破坏其质量声誉的情况下实现可衡量的增长。</p>
<p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>

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<p>中国的办公市场面临过剩和上升的空置率，政府的支持防止了重大破产。相比之下，饺子连锁店 Yuen Kee 蓬勃发展，为消费者提供价值。尽管在全球扩张方面面临挑战，Yuen Kee 的可扩展性类似于麦当劳，使其成为潜在的投资机会。文章强调，在房地产市场和 Yuen Kee 的增长战略中都需要保持纪律，以在应对经济挑战的同时维护质量</p>

<p><strong>Key Takeaways:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关键要点：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>China's office sector is facing extreme oversupply and rising vacancy rates, yet government support for developers is staving off major bankruptcies</li>
<li>Fast-growing dumpling chain Yuen Kee offers a promising value play for investors despite potential challenges in exporting its model</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>中国的办公市场面临极端的供过于求和上升的空置率，但政府对开发商的支持正在避免重大破产</li>
<li>快速增长的饺子连锁店 Yuen Kee 为投资者提供了一个有前景的价值投资机会，尽管在出口其模式方面可能面临挑战</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/28050341/%E5%B1%8F%E5%B9%95%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_28-1-2026_13225_thebambooworks.com_-1024x650.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/28050341/%E5%B1%8F%E5%B9%95%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_28-1-2026_13225_thebambooworks.com_-1024x650.jpeg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Credit: Bamboo Works</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Bamboo Works</em></p>
</div><p>China's economy currently presents a stark dichotomy between its infrastructure ambitions and the daily realities of its consumers. On one side, we see an ailing property market with a massive glut of office space. On the other, we see the resilience of the low-cost dining sector, exemplified by a dumpling chain hoping to become the fast-food answer to the hamburger. One grappling with past overbuilding while consumers hunt for value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国经济目前呈现出基础设施雄心与消费者日常现实之间的鲜明对比。一方面，我们看到一个疲软的房地产市场，办公空间严重过剩。另一方面，我们看到低成本餐饮行业的韧性，以一家希望成为汉堡快餐替代品的 饺子连锁店 为例。一个在与过去的过度建设作斗争，而消费者则在寻找价值。</p>
</div><p>We start with the commercial property sector, which is often overlooked due to its smaller size compared to the massive residential market. Like its residential counterpart, the office market has been massively overbuilt over the last two decades. This is most evident in the southern boomtown of Shenzhen, where the supply-to-demand ratio soared to 2.7 to 1 last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们首先关注商业房地产市场，由于其规模相较于庞大的住宅市场较小，常常被忽视。与住宅市场类似，办公市场在过去二十年中也经历了大规模的过度建设。这在南方的繁荣城市深圳尤为明显，去年供需比飙升至 2.7 比 1。</p>
</div><p>The slowing economy is certainly partly to blame. The net absorption rate — a measure of the net change in occupied office space — has dropped from a peak of 3.34 million square meters in 2021 to just 1.1 million to 1.2 million square meters in each of the last three years. Despite these growing vacancies, new glass towers continue to rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济放缓无疑是部分原因。净吸纳率——一个衡量已占用办公空间净变化的指标——从 2021 年的 334 万平方米的高峰降至过去三年每年仅 110 万至 120 万平方米。尽管空置率不断上升，但新的玻璃大楼仍在不断拔地而起。</p>
</div><p>In a Western market, such a situation would typically lead to a halt in new building lasting years, or even a decade. Market discipline would force developers to stop. However, in China, many office developers are owned or supported by central, provincial, or municipal governments. These entities often feel they have the &#34;wind in their sails&#34; to build continuously to support economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在西方市场，这种情况通常会导致新建筑的暂停，持续数年甚至十年。市场纪律会迫使开发商停止。然而，在中国，许多办公开发商由中央、省或市政府拥有或支持。这些实体通常觉得他们有 “顺风而行” 的动力，可以持续建设以支持经济增长。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, we haven't seen any high-profile bankruptcies in this sector yet. We believe there is a mechanism at play here that doesn't exist in freer markets like Europe or the U.S. Governments can support these developers by forcing their other state-owned companies to abandon older buildings and move into newer ones. While this artificial support helps, the dreaded rise of AI and its potential to reduce workforces looms as a future cloud over office demand. Eventually, just as with the residential sector, we suspect a &#34;spark&#34; could cause a crisis, forcing the government to step in and freeze development activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我们尚未看到该行业出现任何高调的破产。我们认为这里存在一种在欧洲或美国等自由市场中不存在的机制。政府可以通过迫使其他国有企业放弃旧建筑并迁入新建筑来支持这些开发商。虽然这种人为支持有所帮助，但令人担忧的是，人工智能的崛起及其可能减少劳动力的潜力，给办公需求带来了未来的阴影。最终，就像住宅市场一样，我们怀疑某个 “火花” 可能会引发危机，迫使政府介入并冻结开发活动。</p>
</div><h4>The ‘McDonald's of dumplings'</h4>
<div class="lb-trans"><h4>“饺子的麦当劳”</h4>
</div><p>While office towers sit empty, the business of feeding China's 1.4 billion people remains robust, specifically at the value end of the spectrum. This brings us to <strong>Yuen Kee</strong>, a dumpling chain that filed this month to list in Hong Kong. Founded in 2017, the company has quickly become China's dumpling king with 4,266 stores as of last September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当办公大楼空置时，满足中国 14 亿人口的餐饮业务依然强劲，尤其是在价值端。这将我们带到了 <strong>Yuen Kee</strong>，一家本月申请在香港上市的饺子连锁店。该公司成立于 2017 年，截至去年九月，迅速成为中国的饺子之王，拥有 4266 家门店。</p>
</div><p>We view Yuen Kee as a potential winner in the current climate. As consumer sentiment remains weak, diners are constantly looking for value. Yuen Kee operates with a level of scalability and efficiency comparable to <strong>McDonald's</strong> (NYSE: MCD), offering a popular basic food in a clean environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们认为 Yuen Kee 在当前气候中有潜力成为赢家。随着消费者信心持续疲软，食客们不断寻找价值。Yuen Kee 的运营规模和效率与 <strong>麦当劳</strong> (NYSE: MCD) 相当，提供在干净环境中受欢迎的基础食品。</p>
</div><p>The chain is also looking abroad, having opened its first store outside China in Singapore in 2024, growing to 10 stores there. However, we believe global expansion poses a challenge. We have seen this with hotpot chain <strong>Haidilao</strong> (6862.HK) when they expanded to the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该连锁店也在向海外扩展，2024 年在新加坡开设了第一家海外门店，计划在当地发展到 10 家门店。然而，我们认为全球扩张面临挑战。我们在火锅连锁店 <strong>海底捞</strong> (6862.HK) 扩展到美国时见证了这一点。</p>
</div><p>At first, there was a lot of excitement. Now the excitement is still around — but they don't have the buzz that they used to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>起初，大家都非常兴奋。现在兴奋依然存在——但他们已经没有以前的热度了。</p>
</div><p>While dumplings are a hit within ethnic Chinese communities globally, getting non-Asians to move past initial curiosity is a different issue. We believe Yuen Kee would be smart to focus on Southeast Asian markets like Indonesia and Malaysia, where there are big ethnic Chinese communities and standards of living align with their pricing model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然饺子在全球华人社区中受到欢迎，但让非亚裔消费者超越初步好奇心则是另一个问题。我们认为 Yuen Kee 明智的做法是专注于东南亚市场，如印度尼西亚和马来西亚，这里有大量华人社区，生活水平与他们的定价模式相符。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, whether it's filling empty offices or selling dumplings, the key lies in discipline. For the property sector, it requires a halt to the &#34;build and they will come&#34; mentality. For Yuen Kee, it means growing measurably without destroying its reputation for quality.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，无论是填补空置办公室还是销售饺子，关键在于纪律。对于房地产行业来说，需要停止 “建造就会有人来” 的心态。对于 Yuen Kee 来说，这意味着在不破坏其质量声誉的情况下实现可衡量的增长。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>Benzinga 免责声明：本文来自未付费的外部贡献者。它不代表 Benzinga 的报道，并且未经过内容或准确性编辑。</em></strong></p>
</div>

Empty Towers And Full Plates: China's Office Glut And its Dumpling King

benzinga_article

空置的写字楼与丰盛的餐盘：中国写字楼过剩问题及其饺子之王