<p>加密货币领袖们继续淡化稳定币对传统银行的潜在风险。</p>
<p>在最近的一份报告中，渣打银行警告称，美国银行可能在 2028 年前面临 5000 亿美元的存款流失风险，原因是稳定币的采用日益增长，这被视为一种结构性风险。</p>
<p>根据渣打银行数字资产研究负责人 Geoffrey Kendrick 的说法，随着支付和其他核心银行活动继续向链上替代方案迁移，这一风险变得更加明显。</p>
<p>此前，Kendrick 预测，稳定币在同一时期内可能会从新兴市场吸引 1 万亿美元的资金。</p>
<p>此外，该银行估计，整体稳定币市场在同一时期内可能增长到 2 万亿美元，这意味着近四分之三的增长可能来自新兴市场和美国银行。</p>
<p>目前，稳定币市场的市值已超过 3000 亿美元。</p>
<h2>Galaxy 淡化银行的担忧</h2>
<p>然而，Galaxy 的研究负责人 Alex Thorn 驳斥了这一预测，表示，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“不存在存款流失这种情况。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Thorn 将其与储蓄账户和货币市场基金（MMF）进行了类比，表示，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“投资者多年来一直在从他们的 ‘储蓄’ 账户中提取现金，并将现金投入货币市场基金。但是，当你投资于 MMF 时，基金会购买国债……他们从哪里购买国债？从一个卖家那里，卖家拿到现金后……将其存入他们的银行。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/stablecoin-Galaxy.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/stablecoin-Galaxy.png"/></p>
<p>来源：X/Alex Thorn</p>
<p>同样，对于稳定币，用户的银行账户美元最终会流向稳定币发行者，后者最终会购买国债。Thorn 补充道，债券的卖方随后会将现金收益存入银行。</p>
<p>他重新表述称，不会有存款的 ‘流失’，而是 ‘迁移’。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“如果有些银行提供的服务不够有竞争力，可能会出现一些 ‘存款迁移’。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>区域银行面临最高风险</h2>
<p>然而，根据 Kendrick 的说法，稳定币的采用可能会影响那些严重依赖存款融资贷款模型以获取利息收入的区域银行（橙色）。</p>
<p>但多元化（绿色）和投资银行（黄色）由于对利息收入的低依赖性，面临的 ‘存款流失’ 风险中等到低。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Standard-Chartered-stablecoin-risk.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Standard-Chartered-stablecoin-risk.webp"/></p>
<p>来源：渣打银行</p>
<p>这也是加密货币和银行业之间因稳定币收益而产生的潜在紧张关系的一部分，威胁到加密市场结构法案的推进。</p>
<p>尽管白宫已指示各方就此问题达成 ‘妥协’，以便让法案在委员会投票中推进，但截至目前，相关进展尚未公开。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>渣打银行预测，由于稳定币的繁荣，美国区域银行可能在 2028 年前失去 5000 亿美元的存款。</em></li>
<li><em>但 Galaxy 的 Thorn 反对 ‘存款流失’ 的说法，声称资金只会 ‘迁移’ 到更具竞争力的替代方案。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>渣打银行警告称，由于稳定币的采用，美国银行可能在 2028 年前面临 5000 亿美元的存款流出。然而，Galaxy 的 Alex Thorn 对此表示异议，认为不会出现存款外流，而是会向竞争性替代品迁移。他认为，资金仍将在银行系统内流通，因为稳定币发行者会投资于国债。预计这一影响对依赖存款融资的地区银行将更为显著，而多元化和投资银行面临的风险较低。在加密货币和银行业之间的紧张关系中，这场辩论仍在继续</p>

<p>Crypto leaders continue to downplay the perceived risk of stablecoin adoption to traditional banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密货币领袖们继续淡化稳定币对传统银行的潜在风险。</p>
</div><p>In a recent report, Standard Chartered Bank warned that U.S. banks risk losing $500 billion in deposit outflows by 2028, citing growing stablecoin adoption as a structural risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的一份报告中，渣打银行警告称，美国银行可能在 2028 年前面临 5000 亿美元的存款流失风险，原因是稳定币的采用日益增长，这被视为一种结构性风险。</p>
</div><p>According to the Standard Chartered head of digital asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, the risk has become more apparent as payments and other core banking activities continue to migrate to on-chain alternatives.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据渣打银行数字资产研究负责人 Geoffrey Kendrick 的说法，随着支付和其他核心银行活动继续向链上替代方案迁移，这一风险变得更加明显。</p>
</div><p>Previously, Kendrick projected that stablecoins could attract $1 trillion from emerging markets over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此前，Kendrick 预测，稳定币在同一时期内可能会从新兴市场吸引 1 万亿美元的资金。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the bank estimated that the overall stablecoin market could grow to $2 trillion over the same period, suggesting that nearly three-quarters of the boom may come from emerging markets and U.S. banks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，该银行估计，整体稳定币市场在同一时期内可能增长到 2 万亿美元，这意味着近四分之三的增长可能来自新兴市场和美国银行。</p>
</div><p>Currently, the stablecoin market cap is above $300 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，稳定币市场的市值已超过 3000 亿美元。</p>
</div><h2>Galaxy downplays bank fears</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Galaxy 淡化银行的担忧</h2>
</div><p>However, Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, dismissed the projection, saying that,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Galaxy 的研究负责人 Alex Thorn 驳斥了这一预测，表示，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“There is no such thing as deposit flight.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“不存在存款流失这种情况。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Drawing parallels to savings accounts and money market funds (MMF), Thorn said,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Thorn 将其与储蓄账户和货币市场基金（MMF）进行了类比，表示，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Investors have been pulling cash from their ‘savings’ accounts and putting the cash in money market funds for years. But when you invest in an MMF, the fund buys treasuries… where do they buy treasuries? from a seller who takes the cash and… puts it in their bank.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“投资者多年来一直在从他们的 ‘储蓄’ 账户中提取现金，并将现金投入货币市场基金。但是，当你投资于 MMF 时，基金会购买国债……他们从哪里购买国债？从一个卖家那里，卖家拿到现金后……将其存入他们的银行。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/stablecoin-Galaxy.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/stablecoin-Galaxy.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X/Alex Thorn</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：X/Alex Thorn</p>
</div><p>Similarly, for stablecoins, users’ bank account dollars will end up with the stablecoin issuer, which will eventually buy treasury bonds. The seller of the bonds will then park the cash proceeds in the bank, Thorn added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样，对于稳定币，用户的银行账户美元最终会流向稳定币发行者，后者最终会购买国债。Thorn 补充道，债券的卖方随后会将现金收益存入银行。</p>
</div><p>He reframed that there won’t be a deposit ‘flight,’ but a ‘migration.’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他重新表述称，不会有存款的 ‘流失’，而是 ‘迁移’。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“There could be some ‘deposit migration,’ if there are banks that do not offer competitive enough services.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“如果有些银行提供的服务不够有竞争力，可能会出现一些 ‘存款迁移’。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>Regional banks at highest risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>区域银行面临最高风险</h2>
</div><p>According to Kendrick, however, stablecoin adoption will likely impact regional banks that heavily depend on a deposit-funded lending model for interest income (orange).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，根据 Kendrick 的说法，稳定币的采用可能会影响那些严重依赖存款融资贷款模型以获取利息收入的区域银行（橙色）。</p>
</div><p>But diversified (green) and investment banks (yellow) had moderate to low risk to the ‘deposit flight’ fears due to low dependence on interest income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但多元化（绿色）和投资银行（黄色）由于对利息收入的低依赖性，面临的 ‘存款流失’ 风险中等到低。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Standard-Chartered-stablecoin-risk.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Standard-Chartered-stablecoin-risk.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: Standard Chartered Bank</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：渣打银行</p>
</div><p>This was part of the simmering tensions behind the scenes over stablecoin yield that have pitted the crypto and banking industries and threatened to derail the crypto market structure bill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这也是加密货币和银行业之间因稳定币收益而产生的潜在紧张关系的一部分，威胁到加密市场结构法案的推进。</p>
</div><p>Although the White House had instructed the parties to reach a ‘compromise’ on the issue to let the bill advance out of the committee vote, progress on this has not yet been made public, as of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管白宫已指示各方就此问题达成 ‘妥协’，以便让法案在委员会投票中推进，但截至目前，相关进展尚未公开。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最终思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Standard Chartered projected that U.S. regional banks may lose $500 billion in deposits due to the stablecoin boom by 2028.</em></li>
<li><em>But Galaxy’s Thorn has pushed back against the ‘deposit flight’ framing, claiming that money will just ‘migrate’ to competitive alternatives.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>渣打银行预测，由于稳定币的繁荣，美国区域银行可能在 2028 年前失去 5000 亿美元的存款。</em></li>
<li><em>但 Galaxy 的 Thorn 反对 ‘存款流失’ 的说法，声称资金只会 ‘迁移’ 到更具竞争力的替代方案。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

‘No deposit flight’: Galaxy disputes Standard Chartered’s $500B stablecoin risk

- 标准渣打银行警告，预计美国银行因稳定币扩张至 2028 年可能损失 5000 亿美元存款。  
- Galaxy 的研究负责人表示不存在存款 “逃离”，只是资金 “迁移”。  
- 稳定币采用将主要影响依赖存款贷款模型的地区银行。

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‘没有存款流失’: 银河数码对渣打银行 5000 亿美元稳定币风险的质疑