<h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></h3>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<p><strong>休曼纳</strong> (HUM) 的投资者昨天可能经历了心脏骤停，因为这家健康保险公司的股价暴跌 21%，收盘价低于 208 美元——这是自 2017 年初以来的最低水平。这一惨烈的抛售抹去了数十亿美元的市场价值，并拖累了整个管理医疗行业，竞争对手如 <strong>联合健康</strong> (UNH) 下跌 19%，<strong>西维斯</strong> (CVS) 下跌 13%。</p>
<p>催化剂是来自医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心 (CMS) 对 2027 年医疗保险优势计划 (MA) 提出的令人震惊的低支付增长提案，仅为 0.09%——与分析师预期的 5% 相去甚远，尤其是在医疗成本和使用率上升的背景下。对于休曼纳而言，约 80% 的收入来自 MA，这一消息无疑是毁灭性的，进一步加剧了其持续的困境，并引发了对股票估值的质疑。</p>
<h2>医疗保险费率提案引发市场恐慌</h2>
<p>CMS 的费率提案如同重拳出击。分析师原本预计会有 4% 到 6% 的增长，以覆盖通货膨胀、根据《通货膨胀削减法案》上升的药品成本，以及因老龄化的婴儿潮一代而激增的需求。0.9% 的增长——在调整后几乎持平——可能进一步挤压保险公司的利润空间，迫使其提高保费、削减福利或退出市场——这些举措可能会疏远参保人并引发监管审查。</p>
<p>对于休曼纳而言，风险极高。与像联合健康这样的多元化同行不同，休曼纳对 MA 的高度依赖使其极为脆弱。该公司已经缩减了其 MA 业务，计划在 2025 年和 2026 年退出影响数十万人的计划，以应对不断上升的成本。如果提案中的费率在四月最终确定，休曼纳可能需要加快这些努力，可能会影响 2027 年的增长。</p>
<p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://moneymorning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/01/HUM-Chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://moneymorning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/01/HUM-Chart.png"/></p>
<h2>未来的征兆</h2>
<p>尽管休曼纳去年 11 月的第三季度业绩显示收入同比增长 11%，达到 326 亿美元——主要得益于医疗保险和州合同中每位成员的保费上升，以及独立处方药计划 (PDP) 和医疗补助的会员增长——但盈利能力受到影响。调整后的每股收益为 3.24 美元，下降 22%，尽管超出了华尔街的预期。福利比率——作为医疗成本占保费的百分比的关键指标——从 89.9% 上升至 91.1%，受到向州合同和 PDP 等高比率业务转变的压力，以及《通货膨胀削减法案》对医疗保险 D 部分季节性的影响。运营成本也有所上升，调整后的比率达到 11.8%。</p>
<p>展望定于 2 月 11 日公布的第四季度财报，投资者对收入的预期并不高，预计在 300 亿到 320 亿美元之间，调整后的收益将为全年每股 17 美元的目标做出贡献。但新费率可能会促使对其 2026 年展望的下调，考虑到更高的福利比率（可能在 91% 到 92% 之间）和由于调整福利而导致的会员增长放缓。CenterWell 在初级护理和药房的增长可能提供一些缓冲，但整体情绪依然谨慎。</p>
<h2>总结</h2>
<p>休曼纳股价跌至九年低点，乍一看似乎是&#34;便宜货&#34;，因为医疗保险注册增长等长期利好因素（预计到 2030 年将达到 3500 万）以及休曼纳以消费者为中心的战略使其成为耐心投资者的经典买入时机。</p>
<p>然而，MA 费率的冲击带来了过多的不确定性：潜在的利润侵蚀、会员流失和监管风险可能会延长痛苦。距离第四季度财报仅有两周时间，明智的做法是在对 2026 年指导意见有更清晰的了解之前再做决定。如果报告显示出更深的伤口，股价可能会进一步下跌；如果管理层传达乐观信号，或许正是入场的时机。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>IREN 因亚马逊交易传闻上涨 15%。这会发生吗？</p>
<p>Pinterest 股票持续下跌。它是否太便宜而无法忽视？</p>
<p>需要另一个理由来购买美光吗？三星刚刚给了你 100 个理由。</p>

休曼纳

标普全球医疗股指数 ETF - iShares

联合健康

医疗业 ETF - SPDR

标普医疗保健服务 ETF - SPDR

美国医疗保健供应商 ETF - iShares

医疗业 ETF - Vanguard

西维斯

<p>休曼纳的股票暴跌 21%，跌至九年来的最低点，此次下跌是由于 2027 年医疗保险优势计划支付增长提案仅为 0.09%，远低于分析师的预期。这一下降影响了整个管理医疗行业，竞争对手如联合健康和西维斯也遭遇了损失。休曼纳对医疗保险优势计划的高度依赖引发了对其未来盈利能力和增长的担忧，尤其是在即将到来的第四季度财报发布之际。尽管长期增长前景依然存在，但新费率的不确定性表明，投资者可能希望在做出任何决策之前等待更明确的指引</p>

<h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></h3>
</div><p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Humana</strong> (HUM) investors may have suffered cardiac arrest yesterday after shares of the health insurer cratered 21% to close below $208 – the lowest level since early 2017. This brutal selloff erased billions in market value and helped drag down the entire managed care sector, with rivals like <strong>UnitedHealth</strong> (UNH) tumbling 19% and <strong>CVS Health</strong> (CVS) dropping 13%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>休曼纳</strong> (HUM) 的投资者昨天可能经历了心脏骤停，因为这家健康保险公司的股价暴跌 21%，收盘价低于 208 美元——这是自 2017 年初以来的最低水平。这一惨烈的抛售抹去了数十亿美元的市场价值，并拖累了整个管理医疗行业，竞争对手如 <strong>联合健康</strong> (UNH) 下跌 19%，<strong>西维斯</strong> (CVS) 下跌 13%。</p>
</div><p>The catalyst was a shockingly low proposed payment increase for Medicare Advantage (MA) plans in 2027 from the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services (CMS), clocking in at just 0.09% – a far cry from the 5% analysts had penciled in amid rising healthcare costs and utilization. For Humana, which derives about 80% of its revenue from MA, this is devastating, amplifying its ongoing struggles and raising questions about the stock's valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>催化剂是来自医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心 (CMS) 对 2027 年医疗保险优势计划 (MA) 提出的令人震惊的低支付增长提案，仅为 0.09%——与分析师预期的 5% 相去甚远，尤其是在医疗成本和使用率上升的背景下。对于休曼纳而言，约 80% 的收入来自 MA，这一消息无疑是毁灭性的，进一步加剧了其持续的困境，并引发了对股票估值的质疑。</p>
</div><h2>Medicare Rate Proposal Ignites Market Panic</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>医疗保险费率提案引发市场恐慌</h2>
</div><p>The CMS rate proposal delivered a gut-punch. Analysts had expected a 4% to 6% increase similar to last year to cover inflation, higher drug costs under the Inflation Reduction Act, and surging demand from aging baby boomers.The 0.9% increase – essentially flat after adjustments – could squeeze insurer margins further, forcing premium hikes, benefit cuts, or exiting markets – moves that risk alienating enrollees and stoking regulatory scrutiny.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CMS 的费率提案如同重拳出击。分析师原本预计会有 4% 到 6% 的增长，以覆盖通货膨胀、根据《通货膨胀削减法案》上升的药品成本，以及因老龄化的婴儿潮一代而激增的需求。0.9% 的增长——在调整后几乎持平——可能进一步挤压保险公司的利润空间，迫使其提高保费、削减福利或退出市场——这些举措可能会疏远参保人并引发监管审查。</p>
</div><p>For Humana, the stakes are sky-high. Unlike diversified peers like UnitedHealth, Humana's heavy MA reliance leaves it acutely vulnerable. The company has already trimmed its MA footprint, exiting plans affecting hundreds of thousands in 2025 and 2026 to combat rising costs. If the rates are finalized in April as proposed, Humana may need to accelerate these efforts, potentially denting 2027 growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于休曼纳而言，风险极高。与像联合健康这样的多元化同行不同，休曼纳对 MA 的高度依赖使其极为脆弱。该公司已经缩减了其 MA 业务，计划在 2025 年和 2026 年退出影响数十万人的计划，以应对不断上升的成本。如果提案中的费率在四月最终确定，休曼纳可能需要加快这些努力，可能会影响 2027 年的增长。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(点击图片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://moneymorning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/01/HUM-Chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://moneymorning.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/1/files/2026/01/HUM-Chart.png"/></p>
<h2>A Sign of Things to Come</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>未来的征兆</h2>
</div><p>Although Humana's third-quarter results last November saw revenue climbed 11% year-over-year to $32.6 billion – driven by higher per-member premiums in Medicare and state-based contracts, as well as membership growth in stand-alone prescription drug plans (PDP) and Medicaid – profitability took a hit. Adjusted earnings came in at $3.24 per share, down 22%, though it beat Wall Street's estimates. The benefit ratio – a key measure of medical costs as a percentage of premiums – rose to 91.1% from 89.9%, pressured by a shift toward higher-ratio businesses like state-based contracts and PDP, plus changes from the IRA altering Medicare Part D seasonality. Operating costs also edged up, with the ratio hitting 11.8% adjusted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管休曼纳去年 11 月的第三季度业绩显示收入同比增长 11%，达到 326 亿美元——主要得益于医疗保险和州合同中每位成员的保费上升，以及独立处方药计划 (PDP) 和医疗补助的会员增长——但盈利能力受到影响。调整后的每股收益为 3.24 美元，下降 22%，尽管超出了华尔街的预期。福利比率——作为医疗成本占保费的百分比的关键指标——从 89.9% 上升至 91.1%，受到向州合同和 PDP 等高比率业务转变的压力，以及《通货膨胀削减法案》对医疗保险 D 部分季节性的影响。运营成本也有所上升，调整后的比率达到 11.8%。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead to Q4 earnings scheduled for Feb. 11, investors aren't expecting much revenues around $30 billion to $32 billion, with adjusted earnings contributing to the full-year $17 per share target. But the new rates could prompt downward revisions to its 2026 outlook, factoring in higher benefit ratios (perhaps 91% to 92%) and slower membership gains due to tweaking benefits. CenterWell's growth in primary care and pharmacy might provide some cushion, but overall sentiment remains cautious.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望定于 2 月 11 日公布的第四季度财报，投资者对收入的预期并不高，预计在 300 亿到 320 亿美元之间，调整后的收益将为全年每股 17 美元的目标做出贡献。但新费率可能会促使对其 2026 年展望的下调，考虑到更高的福利比率（可能在 91% 到 92% 之间）和由于调整福利而导致的会员增长放缓。CenterWell 在初级护理和药房的增长可能提供一些缓冲，但整体情绪依然谨慎。</p>
</div><h2>Bottom Line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>总结</h2>
</div><p>Humana's plunge to a nine-year low says &#34;bargain&#34; at first glance, as long-term tailwinds like Medicare enrollment growth (projected to hit 35 million by 2030) and Humana's consumer-focused strategy make it a classic buy-the-dip moment for patient investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>休曼纳股价跌至九年低点，乍一看似乎是&#34;便宜货&#34;，因为医疗保险注册增长等长期利好因素（预计到 2030 年将达到 3500 万）以及休曼纳以消费者为中心的战略使其成为耐心投资者的经典买入时机。</p>
</div><p>Yet, the MA rate shock injects too much uncertainty: potential margin erosion, membership churn, and regulatory risks could prolong the pain. With Q4 earnings just two weeks away, the smart play is to wait for greater clarity on 2026 guidance before diving in. If the report reveals deeper wounds, the stock could fall further; if management signals optimism, it just might be time to pounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，MA 费率的冲击带来了过多的不确定性：潜在的利润侵蚀、会员流失和监管风险可能会延长痛苦。距离第四季度财报仅有两周时间，明智的做法是在对 2026 年指导意见有更清晰的了解之前再做决定。如果报告显示出更深的伤口，股价可能会进一步下跌；如果管理层传达乐观信号，或许正是入场的时机。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>IREN 因亚马逊交易传闻上涨 15%。这会发生吗？</p>
</div><p>Pinterest Stock Keeps Falling. Is It Too Cheap To Ignore?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pinterest 股票持续下跌。它是否太便宜而无法忽视？</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要另一个理由来购买美光吗？三星刚刚给了你 100 个理由。</p>
</div>

休曼纳的健康问题导致股票跌至 9 年来的最低点。现在是买入的好时机吗？