<p>TradingKey - 全球金融市场正遭遇双重风暴！一方面，现货黄金正在上演一场 “疯狂的牛市”，一度突破 5500 美元/盎司，接近 5600 美元的历史高位。然而，避险资金的热情依然不减。结合美联储 “超级周” 的结束和新主席即将宣布，黄金价格在这些多重刺激下是否会继续飙升，还是会在高位回落？</p>
<p>黄金从 5400 美元飙升至近 5600 美元，仅用两天交易时间就完成了急剧上涨。表面上看是由于风险规避情绪驱动，实际上是政策、地缘政治和资本流动三种力量共振的结果。每个驱动因素都精准击中了市场的痛点，一些机构已经预测黄金今年将突破 6000 美元大关。</p>
<h2>美联储态度明显偏鸽，降息预期再度升温，刺激黄金向 6000 美元进发</h2>
<p>在东部时间周三，美联储如预期将利率维持在 3.5%-3.75%。虽然这一决定看似例行公事，但其中包含了支持黄金的关键信号。在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔明确表示：“没有人预计下次会议会加息。” 他补充道，如果因关税驱动的通胀达到峰值并回落，同时劳动力市场疲软，政策将适度放松。同时，删除了 “就业下行风险增加” 这一表述，确认了偏鸽的政策立场。</p>
<p>对于黄金而言，这无疑是一个重大利好。一方面，尽管利率仍然较高，但对进一步加息的预期已完全消散，降低了持有黄金的机会成本。另一方面，市场解读鲍威尔的言论为 “降息只是时间问题”。再加上美联储继续进行每月 400 亿美元的技术性资产负债表扩张，宽松流动性的预期推动资金流入贵金属。</p>
<h2>中东局势紧张，避险资金涌入</h2>
<p>黄金的疯狂上涨进一步受到地缘政治冲突的推动，‘火上浇油’。1 月 28 日，特朗普公开表示 “一个庞大的舰队正驶向伊朗”，警告称对伊朗的下一次攻击将远超 2025 年中期对核设施的打击。伊朗外长立即强硬回应，表示其武装部队处于高度警戒状态，将果断反击任何侵略。双方的剑拔弩张瞬间点燃了市场的风险厌恶情绪。</p>
<p>位于波斯湾的伊朗控制着全球超过一半的石油储备。如果冲突升级，不仅会推高油价并引发通胀担忧，还会扰乱全球供应链的稳定。结合本月早些时候美国入侵委内瑞拉的先例，资本市场对地缘政治风险高度敏感。黄金作为 “终极避险资产”，自然成为资本的首选，成为黄金价格突破历史高位的核心催化剂。</p>
<h2>中央银行和基金的双重增持提供强有力的资本支持</h2>
<p>黄金价格的上涨并非短期投机，而是有坚实的资本基础支撑。2026 年 1 月全球中央银行黄金储备数据显示，前十个国家的总持有量稳步上升。美国以 8133.46 吨位居第一，中国和俄罗斯分别持有 2305.37 吨和 2326.52 吨。中央银行持续购买黄金为价格提供了 “压舱石”。</p>
<p>IG 市场分析师 Tony Sycamore 也指出，黄金价格的上涨受益于趋势跟随基金的强劲动能；即使在高位的日内回调也只是短期的获利了结。“黄金在 2026 年的基本面支撑稳固，任何修正都是极具吸引力的买入机会。” 相比之下，白银和铂金的疲软表现进一步凸显了黄金在避险资产中的核心地位。</p>
<h2>美联储主席悬念：会是偏鸽的任命吗？</h2>
<p>本周即将宣布的新美联储主席成为影响黄金走势的又一不确定因素。特朗普暗示这一选择将很快揭晓，并直言 “新主席上任后利率将大幅下降。” 市场担心美联储独立性的侵蚀，进一步推动避险需求，同时重塑美元的走势，间接关联两者的命运。</p>
<p>根据预测平台 Polymarket 的数据，截至 1 月 24 日，黑石集团高管 Rick Rieder 被选中的概率从年初的 4% 飙升至 54%，远超第二名 Kevin Warsh（29%），使他成为最大的黑马。这位管理着 2.4 万亿美元资产的老将主张 “将降息加速至 3%”，显示出明显的偏鸽政策倾向。如果当选，他可能会加快放松的步伐，削弱美元的利率优势。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，美联储内部出现了分歧；沃勒公开支持进一步降息，这可能涉及主席职位的政治考量。同时，鲍威尔在离任前多次强调 “美联储需要远离政治”，为未来政策稳定铺平了道路。如果新主席过于顺从白宫，将不仅引发对美元可信度的质疑，还将进一步增强黄金的避险地位。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利最近发布报告，将其 2026 年下半年黄金价格目标从 4750 美元上调至 5700 美元。高盛和瑞银将 2026 年年末目标定在 5400 美元，而杰富瑞集团认为黄金今年可能达到 6600 美元/盎司。</p>
<p>高盛指出，黄金供应增长缓慢，加上中央银行和私人投资者出于战略或避险目的增加持有量，正在推动需求增长并使价格连续创下新高。高盛还提到，未来如果私人机构增加黄金配置，价格可能会超过他们的目标。</p>
<p>了解更多</p>

<p>现货黄金价格接近每盎司 5,600 美元的历史高位，这一趋势受到美联储鸽派信号和中东紧张局势升级的推动。美联储决定维持利率不变以及对未来降息的预期降低了持有黄金的机会成本。地缘政治冲突，特别是与伊朗相关的冲突，增加了市场的风险厌恶情绪，进一步推动了黄金作为避险资产的需求。此外，中央银行和基金的强大资本支持支撑了价格的上涨，预测显示黄金今年可能超过 6,000 美元</p>

<p>TradingKey - Global financial markets are being swept by a twin storm! On one side, spot Gold is staging a 'crazy bull run,' at one point breaking above $5,500/oz and nearing a record high of $5,600. Yet the enthusiasm of safe-haven capital remains undiminished. Combined with the conclusion of the Fed's 'Super Week' and the imminent announcement of a new Chair, will gold prices continue to surge or peak and retreat under these multiple stimuli?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 全球金融市场正遭遇双重风暴！一方面，现货黄金正在上演一场 “疯狂的牛市”，一度突破 5500 美元/盎司，接近 5600 美元的历史高位。然而，避险资金的热情依然不减。结合美联储 “超级周” 的结束和新主席即将宣布，黄金价格在这些多重刺激下是否会继续飙升，还是会在高位回落？</p>
</div><p>Surging from $5,400 to nearly $5,600, gold completed a sharp advance in just two trading days. While driven by risk-off sentiment on the surface, it is actually the result of resonance among three forces: policy, geopolitics, and capital flows. Every driver has precisely hit the market's pain points, with some institutions already predicting gold will break the $6,000 mark this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金从 5400 美元飙升至近 5600 美元，仅用两天交易时间就完成了急剧上涨。表面上看是由于风险规避情绪驱动，实际上是政策、地缘政治和资本流动三种力量共振的结果。每个驱动因素都精准击中了市场的痛点，一些机构已经预测黄金今年将突破 6000 美元大关。</p>
</div><h2>The Fed sounds decidedly dovish as rate cut expectations heat up again, stimulating gold's charge toward $6,000</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储态度明显偏鸽，降息预期再度升温，刺激黄金向 6000 美元进发</h2>
</div><p>On Wednesday ET, the Fed maintained interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% as expected. While the decision appeared routine, it contained key signals supporting gold. At the press conference, Powell explicitly stated, 'No one expects a rate hike at the next meeting.' He added that if tariff-driven inflation peaks and recedes while the labor market weakens, policy will be eased appropriately. Meanwhile, the phrase 'downside risks to employment have increased' was removed, confirming a dovish policy stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在东部时间周三，美联储如预期将利率维持在 3.5%-3.75%。虽然这一决定看似例行公事，但其中包含了支持黄金的关键信号。在新闻发布会上，鲍威尔明确表示：“没有人预计下次会议会加息。” 他补充道，如果因关税驱动的通胀达到峰值并回落，同时劳动力市场疲软，政策将适度放松。同时，删除了 “就业下行风险增加” 这一表述，确认了偏鸽的政策立场。</p>
</div><p>For gold, this is undoubtedly a major tailwind. On one hand, while rates remain high, expectations for further hikes have completely dissipated, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. On the other hand, the market interpreted Powell's comments as 'a rate cut is only a matter of time.' Coupled with the Fed continuing its $40 billion monthly technical balance sheet expansion, expectations of loose liquidity have driven capital into precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于黄金而言，这无疑是一个重大利好。一方面，尽管利率仍然较高，但对进一步加息的预期已完全消散，降低了持有黄金的机会成本。另一方面，市场解读鲍威尔的言论为 “降息只是时间问题”。再加上美联储继续进行每月 400 亿美元的技术性资产负债表扩张，宽松流动性的预期推动资金流入贵金属。</p>
</div><h2>Tensions flare in the Middle East as safe-haven capital floods in</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中东局势紧张，避险资金涌入</h2>
</div><p>Gold's frantic rally is further fueled by geopolitical conflicts 'adding oil to the fire.' On January 28, Trump publicly stated that a 'massive fleet is heading to Iran,' warning that the next attack on Iran would far exceed the mid-2025 strike on nuclear facilities. Iran's Foreign Minister immediately responded firmly, stating that its armed forces are on high alert and will decisively counter any aggression. The saber-rattling between the two sides instantly ignited market risk aversion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的疯狂上涨进一步受到地缘政治冲突的推动，‘火上浇油’。1 月 28 日，特朗普公开表示 “一个庞大的舰队正驶向伊朗”，警告称对伊朗的下一次攻击将远超 2025 年中期对核设施的打击。伊朗外长立即强硬回应，表示其武装部队处于高度警戒状态，将果断反击任何侵略。双方的剑拔弩张瞬间点燃了市场的风险厌恶情绪。</p>
</div><p>The Persian Gulf, where Iran is located, controls over half of the world's oil reserves. Should the conflict escalate, it would not only drive up oil prices and trigger inflation fears but also disrupt global supply chain stability. Combined with the precedent of the U.S. invasion of Venezuela earlier this month, capital markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical risks. Gold, as the 'ultimate safe-haven asset,' has naturally become the preferred choice for capital, serving as the core catalyst for gold prices breaking all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>位于波斯湾的伊朗控制着全球超过一半的石油储备。如果冲突升级，不仅会推高油价并引发通胀担忧，还会扰乱全球供应链的稳定。结合本月早些时候美国入侵委内瑞拉的先例，资本市场对地缘政治风险高度敏感。黄金作为 “终极避险资产”，自然成为资本的首选，成为黄金价格突破历史高位的核心催化剂。</p>
</div><h2>Double accumulation by central banks and funds provides strong capital support</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>中央银行和基金的双重增持提供强有力的资本支持</h2>
</div><p>The rise in gold prices is not short-term speculation but is backed by solid capital fundamentals. Global central bank gold reserve data for January 2026 shows that the total holdings of the top ten countries have risen steadily. The U.S. remains first with 8,133.46 tons, while China and Russia hold 2,305.37 tons and 2,326.52 tons, respectively. Continued central bank gold purchases provide a 'ballast' for prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金价格的上涨并非短期投机，而是有坚实的资本基础支撑。2026 年 1 月全球中央银行黄金储备数据显示，前十个国家的总持有量稳步上升。美国以 8133.46 吨位居第一，中国和俄罗斯分别持有 2305.37 吨和 2326.52 吨。中央银行持续购买黄金为价格提供了 “压舱石”。</p>
</div><p>IG market analyst Tony Sycamore also noted that the gold price rally has benefited from strong momentum among trend-following funds; even intraday pullbacks from highs are merely short-term profit-taking. 'Gold's fundamental support in 2026 is solid, and any correction is a highly attractive buying opportunity.' In contrast, the weak performance of silver and platinum further highlights gold's central position among safe-haven assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IG 市场分析师 Tony Sycamore 也指出，黄金价格的上涨受益于趋势跟随基金的强劲动能；即使在高位的日内回调也只是短期的获利了结。“黄金在 2026 年的基本面支撑稳固，任何修正都是极具吸引力的买入机会。” 相比之下，白银和铂金的疲软表现进一步凸显了黄金在避险资产中的核心地位。</p>
</div><h2>Fed Chair Suspense: A Dovish Appointment?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储主席悬念：会是偏鸽的任命吗？</h2>
</div><p>The upcoming announcement of the new Fed Chair this week has become another uncertainty affecting gold's trajectory. Trump has teased that the selection will be revealed soon and stated bluntly that 'interest rates will drop significantly after the new Chair takes office.' Markets worry about the erosion of Fed independence, further driving safe-haven demand while reshaping the dollar's path, indirectly linking the fates of both assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周即将宣布的新美联储主席成为影响黄金走势的又一不确定因素。特朗普暗示这一选择将很快揭晓，并直言 “新主席上任后利率将大幅下降。” 市场担心美联储独立性的侵蚀，进一步推动避险需求，同时重塑美元的走势，间接关联两者的命运。</p>
</div><p>According to data from the prediction platform Polymarket, as of January 24, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder's probability of being elected has soared from 4% at the start of the year to 54%, far exceeding second-place Kevin Warsh (29%), making him the biggest dark horse. The veteran, who manages $2.4 trillion in assets, advocates for 'accelerating rate cuts to 3%,' showing a clearly dovish policy lean. If elected, he will likely accelerate the pace of easing, weakening the dollar's interest rate advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据预测平台 Polymarket 的数据，截至 1 月 24 日，黑石集团高管 Rick Rieder 被选中的概率从年初的 4% 飙升至 54%，远超第二名 Kevin Warsh（29%），使他成为最大的黑马。这位管理着 2.4 万亿美元资产的老将主张 “将降息加速至 3%”，显示出明显的偏鸽政策倾向。如果当选，他可能会加快放松的步伐，削弱美元的利率优势。</p>
</div><p>Notably, divisions have emerged within the Fed; Waller has publicly supported further rate cuts, which may involve political considerations for the Chair position. Meanwhile, Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the 'Fed needs to stay out of politics' before leaving office, essentially paving the way for future policy stability. If the new Chair is overly submissive to the White House, it will not only trigger doubts about the dollar's credibility but also further strengthen gold's safe-haven status.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，美联储内部出现了分歧；沃勒公开支持进一步降息，这可能涉及主席职位的政治考量。同时，鲍威尔在离任前多次强调 “美联储需要远离政治”，为未来政策稳定铺平了道路。如果新主席过于顺从白宫，将不仅引发对美元可信度的质疑，还将进一步增强黄金的避险地位。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley recently released a report raising its gold price target for the second half of 2026 from $4,750 to $5,700. Goldman Sachs and UBS have set year-end 2026 targets at $5,400, while Jefferies Group believes gold could reach $6,600/oz this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利最近发布报告，将其 2026 年下半年黄金价格目标从 4750 美元上调至 5700 美元。高盛和瑞银将 2026 年年末目标定在 5400 美元，而杰富瑞集团认为黄金今年可能达到 6600 美元/盎司。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs pointed out that slow growth in gold supply, coupled with increased holdings by central banks and private investors for strategic or safe-haven purposes, is driving demand growth and pushing prices to consecutive new highs. Goldman noted that in the future, if private institutions increase their gold allocations, prices could rise above their target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛指出，黄金供应增长缓慢，加上中央银行和私人投资者出于战略或避险目的增加持有量，正在推动需求增长并使价格连续创下新高。高盛还提到，未来如果私人机构增加黄金配置，价格可能会超过他们的目标。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Gold Nears $5,600 to Hit New Record High as Fed Dovishness and Middle East Tensions Mount; Is $6,000 Not a Dream?

- 全球金融市场面临现货黄金上涨至近 5600 美元/盎司的局面。  
- 美联储维持利率不变，降息预期升温，同时中东局势紧张推动避险资金流入。  
- 中央银行和基金的增持为黄金价格提供了强有力的资本支持。

TradingKey

黄金 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

华夏黄金ETF

金属采矿 ETF - SPDR

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

华夏中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

Kinross Gold

黄金 ETF - SPDR

Gold.com

中国黄金国际

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

纽蒙特矿业

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

黄金和贵金属矿商 ETF - U.S. Global

黄金股ETF

黄金股ETF工银

Wisdomtree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Stgy Fd - ETF

德银贵金属基金 - PowerShares

3 倍做空金矿指数 ETF - MicroSectors

黄金接近 5600 美元，创下新纪录高位，因美联储的鸽派立场和中东紧张局势加剧；6000 美元的目标是否触手可及？