<p>作者：Tiezhu Ge，来源：X,@TiezhuCrypto</p>
<p>现代社会中最基本和隐含的组织与协调机制不是金钱本身，而是债务 - 债权关系的持续延伸。</p>
<p>无论是国家、社区、组织还是个人，他们本质上都在进行一个重复的动作：用未来交换现在。</p>
<p>我们理所当然认为的经济增长和消费繁荣，并不是财富凭空而来，而是源于一种高度制度化的共识，即未来可以提前分配。债务恰恰是实现这一共识的技术手段。</p>
<p>从这个角度来看，更根本的核心在于：谁更有能力将未来折现为现在，谁有权力定义未来。从这个意义上说，货币的创造和收缩仅仅是一个负债累累的世界的表现。金融的魔力实际上只有一件事：资源的跨时间交换。I. 从债务的角度理解黄金和美元 如果你将债务置于世界运作的中心，黄金和美元的角色立刻变得清晰。美元不是一种货币；它是债务协调和定价的工具。美国的债务不仅仅是美国自身的负债。放在全球资产负债表中，美元体系是：美国出口其未来的承诺，而世界提供吸收当前债务的能力。双方以美元作为合同，达成了人类历史上最大的跨时间交易。黄金的独特性在于它是唯一一种不受任何负债支持的金融资产。它不需要任何人的背书或承诺；它是最终的偿还。从资产负债表的角度来看，黄金是唯一没有对手方的资产。这正是为什么当债务体系运作良好时，黄金常常显得低效、无利可图且缺乏增长潜力；然而，当人们开始怀疑未来是否能够成功赎回时，它的价值会被重新评估。有些人说黄金是对抗地缘政治风险的避风港。但如果继续从资产负债表的角度分析，这一说法是不完整的。地缘政治并不会直接摧毁财富；真正削弱的是债务关系的稳定性。II. 避风港：寻找健康的资产负债表 理解上述逻辑……很明显，如果你将世界视为一个不断扩张的资产负债表，那么所谓的对冲并不是寻找一个单一的、永远安全的资产，而是寻找在不同阶段健康和可持续的资产负债表结构。最根本的风险不是波动，而是债务结构的不平衡。因此，如果我们观察最近的市场趋势，伴随美元贬值和日元剧烈波动的是什么？是像瑞士这样资产负债表相对健康的国家的法定货币的快速升值。如果进一步延伸，为什么白银在上涨，其他商品也在上涨？从更广泛的宏观角度来看，目前唯一影响债务 - 债权人关系的基本变量是人工智能。人工智能不仅仅是一个行业；在我看来，它的根本性质在于其重塑资产负债表的能力。一方面，它以指数级降低人类的效率成本，使软件更便宜，替代劳动力，并将信息处理成本降至接近零。另一方面，它在现实世界中创造了前所未有的刚性资本需求，使计算能力、电力、土地、能源和矿产成为最强大的现实约束。这两种力量同时影响着全球资产负债表：效率变得更轻，而资本变得更重。这是当前债务体系重组的根本所在。换句话说，任何可以数字化、逻辑化和自动化的工作，其成本都被降低到零。软件、文案、设计和基础代码——曾经昂贵的知识资产——正变得像自来水一样便宜。一切都有价格。每个代币的生成都涉及计算芯片的燃烧、电力的消耗和铜缆的传输。人工智能越智能，它对物质世界的需求就越贪婪。在过去几十年中，全球增长在很大程度上依赖于金融工程：信贷扩张、杠杆滚动和预期管理。未来可以不断折现，使债务看起来轻松可控。但当增长被重新绑定到计算能力、电力、资源和生产能力等无形变量时，债务不再仅仅是数字游戏。从这个角度来看，如果你观察白银和商品，市场所定价的是对未来生产能力约束的预定价。因此，当增长被物理约束锁定时，债务的魔力就会失效。因为无论你注入多少货币，如果没有足够的铜来建设电网，没有足够的白银来制造面板，人工智能的计算能力就无法运行。III. 美元的终结是否到来了？没有什么是永久的，包括黄金。理解债务世界的运作需要接受一个不太愉快的结论：黄金也不是永久的解决方案。目前的价格上涨仅仅反映了没有对手方的资产的稀缺性。然而，黄金无法产生现金流、提高生产力或替代真实的资本形成。从资产负债表的角度来看，它本质上是暂时冻结风险。回到美元，为什么尽管市场悲观，它仍然存在？因为你需要世界上最深的资产池作为抵押、结算和对冲；你持有美国国债不仅仅是因为你信任美国，而是因为你需要一个被全球金融体系认可并随时可用于抵押融资的资产。美元的强大不在于其金融的正确性，而在于其不可替代的网络效应。它目前是人类文明中唯一能够支持数万亿美元债务的容器。几十年来，美元体系的核心能力一直是将未来折现为现在：美国发行债务，世界支付账单；美国消费推动全球供应——本质上是时间价值的全球再分配。然而，随着美国财政路径越来越依赖于持续的资产负债表扩张和债务滚动，美元的信誉经历了微妙的变化：它仍然是最佳选择，但不再是免费的，机会成本显著上升。但致命的缺陷并不在于这些因素，而在于随着增长越来越依赖于电力、计算能力、资源和生产能力，金融体系在利用预期、杠杆和折现率将未来人为转移到现在的专业知识将受到物理世界的硬性现实的制约。所谓的格林兰、关税和制造业回流本质上都是围绕这一硬约束进行的游戏。换句话说，美国必须首先完成人工智能基础设施的重塑，使美元成为购买世界上最强大的计算能力和最高效生产力的唯一凭证。这是美元恢复往日辉煌的必要条件。否则，在物理约束和人工智能重新定义全球分工的背景下，美元体系将逐渐失去折现未来的能力，逐渐走向末日时代。相对缓慢但不可逆转的衰退将发生，直到一个更好地代表真实生产力和技术主导地位的货币锚出现以取代它。</p>

<p>Tiezhu Ge 的文章讨论了债务在现代社会中的作用，强调经济增长是由债务 - 债权人关系驱动的，而非财富创造。文章指出美元是债务协调的工具，而黄金则是一种没有负债的独特资产。作者认为，健康的资产负债表结构对稳定至关重要，最近的市场趋势反映了受人工智能影响的债务结构的变化。文章最后得出结论，随着增长受到物理资源的限制，债务的动态将发生显著变化</p>

<p>Author: Tiezhu Ge on CRYPTO; Source: X,@TiezhuCrypto</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Tiezhu Ge，来源：X,@TiezhuCrypto</p>
</div><p>The most fundamental and implicit organizational and coordination mechanism in modern society is not money itself, but the continuous extension of debt-creditor relationships.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现代社会中最基本和隐含的组织与协调机制不是金钱本身，而是债务 - 债权关系的持续延伸。</p>
</div><p>Whether it is a nation, a community, an organization, or an individual, they are essentially doing a repetitive action: exchanging the future for the present.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论是国家、社区、组织还是个人，他们本质上都在进行一个重复的动作：用未来交换现在。</p>
</div><p>The economic growth and consumer boom we take for granted do not stem from wealth appearing out of thin air, but from a highly institutionalized consensus that the future can be allocated in advance. Debt is precisely the technical means of realizing this consensus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们理所当然认为的经济增长和消费繁荣，并不是财富凭空而来，而是源于一种高度制度化的共识，即未来可以提前分配。债务恰恰是实现这一共识的技术手段。</p>
</div><p>From this perspective, a more fundamental core lies in: who has the greater ability to discount the future to the present, and who has the power to define the future. In this sense, the creation and contraction of money are merely expressions of a debt-ridden world. The magic of finance is actually only one thing: the intertemporal exchange of resources. I. Understanding Gold and the Dollar from a Debt Perspective If you place debt at the center of the world's operation, the roles of gold and the dollar immediately become clear. The dollar is not a currency; it is a tool for debt coordination and pricing. US debt is not simply a liability of the United States itself. Placed within the global balance sheet, the dollar system is: the United States exports its future promises, and the world provides the capacity to absorb present debt. Both sides, using the dollar as a contract, have reached the largest intertemporal transaction in human history. Gold's uniqueness lies in the fact that it is the only financial asset that is not backed by any liabilities. It requires no endorsement or promise from anyone; it is the ultimate repayment. From a balance sheet perspective, gold is the only asset without a counterparty. This is precisely why gold often appears inefficient, unprofitable, and lacking in growth potential when the debt system is functioning well; however, its value is re-evaluated when people begin to doubt whether it can be successfully redeemed in the future. Some say that gold is a safe haven against geopolitical risks. But if you continue to analyze it using balance sheets, this statement is incomplete. Geopolitics does not directly destroy wealth; what it truly undermines is the stability of debt relationships. II. Safe Haven: Finding a Healthy Balance Sheet Understanding the above logic... It becomes clear that if you understand the world as an ever-expanding balance sheet, then so-called hedging isn't about finding a single, perpetually safe asset, but rather about finding a healthy and sustainable balance sheet structure at different stages. The most fundamental risk isn't volatility, but rather the imbalance in debt structure. Therefore, if we observe recent market trends, what accompanies the depreciation of the US dollar and the huge fluctuations in the Japanese yen? It's the rapid appreciation of the fiat currencies of countries with relatively healthy balance sheets, like Switzerland. If we extend this further, why is silver rising, and why are other commodities rising? Looking at it from a broader macro perspective, the only fundamental variable currently influencing debt-creditor relationships is AI. AI is not simply an industry; in my view, its fundamental nature lies in its ability to reshape balance sheets. On one hand, it exponentially reduces human efficiency costs, making software cheaper, replacing labor, and bringing information processing to near-zero cost. On the other hand, it creates unprecedented rigid capital demands in the real world, making computing power, electricity, land, energy, and minerals the most powerful real-world constraints. These two forces are simultaneously impacting global balance sheets: efficiency is becoming lighter, while capital is becoming heavier. This is fundamental to the current debt system restructuring. In other words, any work that can be digitized, logicalized, and automated has its costs reduced to zero. Software, copywriting, design, and basic code—once expensive intellectual assets—are becoming as cheap as tap water. Everything has a price. The generation of each token involves the burning of computing chips, the consumption of electricity, and the transmission of copper cables. The more intelligent AI becomes, the more greedy it demands from the physical world. In the past few decades, global growth has relied heavily on financial engineering: credit expansion, leverage rollover, and expectation management. The future can be continuously discounted, making debt seem light and controllable. But when growth is re-bound to intangible variables like computing power, electricity, resources, and production capacity, debt is no longer just a numbers game. From this perspective, if you look at silver and commodities, what the market is pricing is a pre-pricing of future production capacity constraints. Therefore, when growth is locked in by physical constraints, the magic of debt fails. Because no matter how much currency you inject, without enough copper to build the power grid and enough silver to manufacture panels, AI's computing power cannot run. III. Has the end of the dollar arrived? Nothing is permanent, including gold. Understanding the workings of the debt world necessitates accepting a less-than-pleasant conclusion: gold is not a permanent solution either. The current price increase is merely a reflection of the scarcity of assets with no counterparty. However, gold cannot generate cash flow, improve productivity, or replace real capital formation. From a balance sheet perspective, it's essentially freezing risk temporarily. Returning to the US dollar, why does it still exist despite market pessimism? Because you need the world's deepest pool of assets for collateral, settlement, and hedging; you hold US Treasury bonds not just because you trust the US, but because you need an asset recognized by the global financial system and readily available for collateralized financing. The strength of the US dollar lies not in its financial correctness, but in its irreplaceable network effect. It is currently the only container in human civilization capable of supporting trillions of dollars in debt. For decades, the core capability of the dollar system has been to discount the future to the present: the US issues debt, and the world pays the bill; US consumption drives global supply—essentially a global redistribution of time value. However, as the US fiscal path increasingly relies on continuous balance sheet expansion and debt rollover, the dollar's credibility undergoes a subtle shift: it remains the best option, but no longer a free one, with opportunity costs rising significantly. But the fatal flaw isn't these factors, but rather the fact that as growth increasingly depends on electricity, computing power, resources, and production capacity, the financial system's expertise in using expectations, leverage, and discount rates to artificially transfer the future to the present will be constrained by the hard realities of the physical world. The so-called Greenland, tariffs, and manufacturing reshoring are all essentially games revolving around this hard constraint. In other words, the US must first complete the reshaping of AI infrastructure, making the dollar the sole credential for purchasing the world's strongest computing power and most efficient productivity. This is the necessary condition for the dollar's return to its former glory. Otherwise, against the backdrop of physical constraints and AI redefining the global division of labor, the dollar system will gradually lose its ability to discount the future, gradually heading towards an end-of-days era. A slow but irreversible relative decline will occur until a monetary anchor that better represents real productivity and technological dominance emerges to replace it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从这个角度来看，更根本的核心在于：谁更有能力将未来折现为现在，谁有权力定义未来。从这个意义上说，货币的创造和收缩仅仅是一个负债累累的世界的表现。金融的魔力实际上只有一件事：资源的跨时间交换。I. 从债务的角度理解黄金和美元 如果你将债务置于世界运作的中心，黄金和美元的角色立刻变得清晰。美元不是一种货币；它是债务协调和定价的工具。美国的债务不仅仅是美国自身的负债。放在全球资产负债表中，美元体系是：美国出口其未来的承诺，而世界提供吸收当前债务的能力。双方以美元作为合同，达成了人类历史上最大的跨时间交易。黄金的独特性在于它是唯一一种不受任何负债支持的金融资产。它不需要任何人的背书或承诺；它是最终的偿还。从资产负债表的角度来看，黄金是唯一没有对手方的资产。这正是为什么当债务体系运作良好时，黄金常常显得低效、无利可图且缺乏增长潜力；然而，当人们开始怀疑未来是否能够成功赎回时，它的价值会被重新评估。有些人说黄金是对抗地缘政治风险的避风港。但如果继续从资产负债表的角度分析，这一说法是不完整的。地缘政治并不会直接摧毁财富；真正削弱的是债务关系的稳定性。II. 避风港：寻找健康的资产负债表 理解上述逻辑……很明显，如果你将世界视为一个不断扩张的资产负债表，那么所谓的对冲并不是寻找一个单一的、永远安全的资产，而是寻找在不同阶段健康和可持续的资产负债表结构。最根本的风险不是波动，而是债务结构的不平衡。因此，如果我们观察最近的市场趋势，伴随美元贬值和日元剧烈波动的是什么？是像瑞士这样资产负债表相对健康的国家的法定货币的快速升值。如果进一步延伸，为什么白银在上涨，其他商品也在上涨？从更广泛的宏观角度来看，目前唯一影响债务 - 债权人关系的基本变量是人工智能。人工智能不仅仅是一个行业；在我看来，它的根本性质在于其重塑资产负债表的能力。一方面，它以指数级降低人类的效率成本，使软件更便宜，替代劳动力，并将信息处理成本降至接近零。另一方面，它在现实世界中创造了前所未有的刚性资本需求，使计算能力、电力、土地、能源和矿产成为最强大的现实约束。这两种力量同时影响着全球资产负债表：效率变得更轻，而资本变得更重。这是当前债务体系重组的根本所在。换句话说，任何可以数字化、逻辑化和自动化的工作，其成本都被降低到零。软件、文案、设计和基础代码——曾经昂贵的知识资产——正变得像自来水一样便宜。一切都有价格。每个代币的生成都涉及计算芯片的燃烧、电力的消耗和铜缆的传输。人工智能越智能，它对物质世界的需求就越贪婪。在过去几十年中，全球增长在很大程度上依赖于金融工程：信贷扩张、杠杆滚动和预期管理。未来可以不断折现，使债务看起来轻松可控。但当增长被重新绑定到计算能力、电力、资源和生产能力等无形变量时，债务不再仅仅是数字游戏。从这个角度来看，如果你观察白银和商品，市场所定价的是对未来生产能力约束的预定价。因此，当增长被物理约束锁定时，债务的魔力就会失效。因为无论你注入多少货币，如果没有足够的铜来建设电网，没有足够的白银来制造面板，人工智能的计算能力就无法运行。III. 美元的终结是否到来了？没有什么是永久的，包括黄金。理解债务世界的运作需要接受一个不太愉快的结论：黄金也不是永久的解决方案。目前的价格上涨仅仅反映了没有对手方的资产的稀缺性。然而，黄金无法产生现金流、提高生产力或替代真实的资本形成。从资产负债表的角度来看，它本质上是暂时冻结风险。回到美元，为什么尽管市场悲观，它仍然存在？因为你需要世界上最深的资产池作为抵押、结算和对冲；你持有美国国债不仅仅是因为你信任美国，而是因为你需要一个被全球金融体系认可并随时可用于抵押融资的资产。美元的强大不在于其金融的正确性，而在于其不可替代的网络效应。它目前是人类文明中唯一能够支持数万亿美元债务的容器。几十年来，美元体系的核心能力一直是将未来折现为现在：美国发行债务，世界支付账单；美国消费推动全球供应——本质上是时间价值的全球再分配。然而，随着美国财政路径越来越依赖于持续的资产负债表扩张和债务滚动，美元的信誉经历了微妙的变化：它仍然是最佳选择，但不再是免费的，机会成本显著上升。但致命的缺陷并不在于这些因素，而在于随着增长越来越依赖于电力、计算能力、资源和生产能力，金融体系在利用预期、杠杆和折现率将未来人为转移到现在的专业知识将受到物理世界的硬性现实的制约。所谓的格林兰、关税和制造业回流本质上都是围绕这一硬约束进行的游戏。换句话说，美国必须首先完成人工智能基础设施的重塑，使美元成为购买世界上最强大的计算能力和最高效生产力的唯一凭证。这是美元恢复往日辉煌的必要条件。否则，在物理约束和人工智能重新定义全球分工的背景下，美元体系将逐渐失去折现未来的能力，逐渐走向末日时代。相对缓慢但不可逆转的衰退将发生，直到一个更好地代表真实生产力和技术主导地位的货币锚出现以取代它。</p>
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黄金、美元与债务的世界：资产负债表的重新评估