<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源 – 美国/伊朗紧张局势加剧的担忧</strong></h3>
<p>油价持续上涨，ICE 布伦特原油昨日收盘上涨超过 1.2%，达到自九月份以来的最高水平。现货价格和时间价差的强劲表现与市场对石油过剩的看法相悖。然而，地缘政治风险的激增以及近期美元走弱正在支撑现货价格。同时，一些近期的供应中断也在支撑价差。</p>
<p>市场面临的主要不确定性是美国与伊朗之间可能的升级。特朗普总统警告伊朗，达成协议的时间不多，因为美国舰船正向该地区移动。显然，这种更具攻击性的言辞让油市对供应中断的潜在风险感到紧张。伊朗每天大约生产 330 万桶原油，出口约 150 万桶。这将是最直接的供应担忧。然而，人们也担心这可能对地区石油供应产生影响。任何升级都可能对通过霍尔木兹海峡的波斯湾石油流动构成风险，约有 2000 万桶原油在此通过。如果没有升级，悲观的基本面应该再次成为市场的主导，导致市场趋势下行。</p>
<p>EIA 库存数据显示，美国原油库存上周减少了 230 万桶。这是由于进口减少了 80.5 万桶/日，而出口则环比增长了 90.1 万桶/日。近期冬季风暴的初步影响似乎在数据中有所反映，预计下 48 州的原油产量环比下降了 4.2 万桶/日，而炼油厂的开工率在一周内下降了 2.4 个百分点，降至 90.9%。成品库存略有增加，汽油和馏分油库存分别增加了 22.3 万桶和 32.9 万桶。</p>
<p>在美国天然气市场，2026 年 2 月亨利中心合约昨日到期。它经历了非常波动的最后交易时段，最终以每百万英热单位 7.46 美元收盘，涨幅为 7.28%。合约到期后，3 月合约成为前一个月合约，目前交易价格略高于每百万英热单位 3.7 美元（昨日收盘下跌 2.3%）。合约之间的显著逆价差反映了近期美国冬季风暴的影响。我们继续看到天然气市场从这一干扰中恢复。美国天然气产量在周末停产后呈上升趋势。此外，流向美国液化天然气工厂的天然气流量正在恢复，缓解了对液化天然气供应对全球市场影响的担忧。</p>
<h3><strong>金属 - 上海铝价飙升至历史新高</strong></h3>
<p>铝价在上海期货交易所飙升至历史新高，而伦敦金属交易所的价格也攀升至自 2022 年 4 月以来的最高水平。这一走势发生在更广泛的金属反弹之中，受到美元走弱和供应紧张的支持。上海价格上涨近 6%，伦敦上涨近 2%。</p>
<p>铝市场预计将在 2026 年出现供应短缺，供应仍然是主要制约因素。除印度尼西亚外，生产增长乏力。中国在产能扩张方面继续保持克制，欧洲和美国也没有看到有意义的冶炼厂复工。铝价还受到铜价整体反弹的支持。</p>
<p>在贵金属方面，黄金继续飙升至历史新高，昨日收盘上涨近 4.6%。这种强劲势头在亚洲早盘交易中持续，现货黄金一度达到每盎司 5588 美元的历史新高。地缘政治紧张局势、美元走弱以及投资者从货币中撤资推动了贵金属的上涨。黄金年初至今上涨约 27%，而白银则上涨近 65%。ETF 资金流入仍然支持市场。已知的黄金 ETF 持有量在 1 月 28 日增加了 128 千盎司。这标志着连续第六天的资金流入，使持有量达到 1006 万盎司，为 2022 年 8 月以来的最高水平。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>美联储在中性利率上维持利率不变</p>
<p>澳大利亚储备银行计划在 2 月份加息</p>
<p>意大利信心数据在 1 月份逐渐改善</p>

<p>油价因地缘政治风险而上涨，特别是美国与伊朗之间的紧张关系，布伦特原油价格上涨超过 1.2%。美国原油库存减少了 230 万桶，受到进口下降和冬季风暴对生产影响的影响。在金属市场，上海的铝价达到了历史新高，而黄金价格上涨近 4.6%，受到地缘政治紧张局势和美元走弱的推动。总体而言，商品市场正经历显著的波动和价格上涨趋势</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy – Concerns grow over US/Iranian escalation</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源 – 美国/伊朗紧张局势加剧的担忧</strong></h3>
</div><p>Oil prices continue to firm, with ICE Brent settling a little more than 1.2% higher yesterday -- its highest level since September. The strength in the flat price and timespreads is at odds with the large oil surplus view. However, a torrent of geopolitical risks, along with recent USD weakness, are supporting the flat price.So are some recent supply disruptions, which are also supporting spreads.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价持续上涨，ICE 布伦特原油昨日收盘上涨超过 1.2%，达到自九月份以来的最高水平。现货价格和时间价差的强劲表现与市场对石油过剩的看法相悖。然而，地缘政治风险的激增以及近期美元走弱正在支撑现货价格。同时，一些近期的供应中断也在支撑价差。</p>
</div><p>The key uncertainty facing the market is the potential for escalation between the US and Iran. President Trump warned Iran that time is running out to strike a deal, as US ships move towards the region. Clearly, this more aggressive rhetoric has left the oil market nervous about the potential for supply disruptions. Iran pumps around 3.3m b/d of crude oil, while exporting around 1.5m b/d. This will be the most immediate supply concern. However, there are also concerns about what this could mean for regional oil supplies. Any escalation may pose a risk to Persian Gulf oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where around 20m b/d of crude oil passes. In the absence of an escalation, bearish fundamentals should once again take centre stage, leading the market to trend lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场面临的主要不确定性是美国与伊朗之间可能的升级。特朗普总统警告伊朗，达成协议的时间不多，因为美国舰船正向该地区移动。显然，这种更具攻击性的言辞让油市对供应中断的潜在风险感到紧张。伊朗每天大约生产 330 万桶原油，出口约 150 万桶。这将是最直接的供应担忧。然而，人们也担心这可能对地区石油供应产生影响。任何升级都可能对通过霍尔木兹海峡的波斯湾石油流动构成风险，约有 2000 万桶原油在此通过。如果没有升级，悲观的基本面应该再次成为市场的主导，导致市场趋势下行。</p>
</div><p>EIA inventory data shows that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.3m barrels over the last week. This was driven by an 805k b/d decline in imports, while exports grew 901k b/d WoW. The initial impact from the recent winter storm appears to be reflected in the numbers, with crude oil output in the Lower 48 estimated to have fallen 42k b/d week-on-week, while refineries reduced operating rates by 2.4 percentage points over the week to 90.9%. Refined product stocks saw marginal increases, with gasoline and distillate inventories increasing 223k barrels and 329k barrels, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EIA 库存数据显示，美国原油库存上周减少了 230 万桶。这是由于进口减少了 80.5 万桶/日，而出口则环比增长了 90.1 万桶/日。近期冬季风暴的初步影响似乎在数据中有所反映，预计下 48 州的原油产量环比下降了 4.2 万桶/日，而炼油厂的开工率在一周内下降了 2.4 个百分点，降至 90.9%。成品库存略有增加，汽油和馏分油库存分别增加了 22.3 万桶和 32.9 万桶。</p>
</div><p>In the US natural gas market, the Feb’26 Henry Hub contract expired yesterday. It had a very volatile final trading session, settling 7.28% higher on the day at $7.46/MMBtu. The expiry of the contract sees the March contract become the front-month contract, which is trading at a little over $3.7/MMBtu (settling 2.3% lower yesterday). The significant backwardation between the contracts reflects the impact of the recent US winter storm. We continue to see the gas market recovering from this disruption. US natural gas output is trending upwards following the shut-ins seen over the weekend. In addition, gas flows to US LNG plants are recovering, easing concerns about the impact on LNG supplies to global markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国天然气市场，2026 年 2 月亨利中心合约昨日到期。它经历了非常波动的最后交易时段，最终以每百万英热单位 7.46 美元收盘，涨幅为 7.28%。合约到期后，3 月合约成为前一个月合约，目前交易价格略高于每百万英热单位 3.7 美元（昨日收盘下跌 2.3%）。合约之间的显著逆价差反映了近期美国冬季风暴的影响。我们继续看到天然气市场从这一干扰中恢复。美国天然气产量在周末停产后呈上升趋势。此外，流向美国液化天然气工厂的天然气流量正在恢复，缓解了对液化天然气供应对全球市场影响的担忧。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Metals - Aluminium jumps to record high in Shanghai</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>金属 - 上海铝价飙升至历史新高</strong></h3>
</div><p>Aluminium surged to a record high on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while LME prices climbed to their strongest level since April 2022. The move comes amid a broader metals rally, supported by a weaker US dollar and tightening supply conditions. Shanghai prices rose nearly 6%, with London gaining close to 2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝价在上海期货交易所飙升至历史新高，而伦敦金属交易所的价格也攀升至自 2022 年 4 月以来的最高水平。这一走势发生在更广泛的金属反弹之中，受到美元走弱和供应紧张的支持。上海价格上涨近 6%，伦敦上涨近 2%。</p>
</div><p>The aluminium market is moving into deficit in 2026, with supply remaining the key constraint. Outside Indonesia, production growth is subdued. China continues to show discipline on capacity additions, and neither Europe nor the US is seeing meaningful smelter restarts. Aluminium prices have also drawn support from the broader rally in copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铝市场预计将在 2026 年出现供应短缺，供应仍然是主要制约因素。除印度尼西亚外，生产增长乏力。中国在产能扩张方面继续保持克制，欧洲和美国也没有看到有意义的冶炼厂复工。铝价还受到铜价整体反弹的支持。</p>
</div><p>In precious metals, gold continues to surge to record highs, closing almost 4.6% higher yesterday. This strength continued in early-morning trading in Asia, with spot gold hitting a fresh record high of $5,588/oz at one stage. Geopolitical tensions, a weaker dollar, and investor rotation out of currencies have boosted the precious metal. Gold is now up around 27% year‑to‑date, while silver has gained almost 65%. ETF flows remain supportive. Total known gold ETF holdings rose by 128koz on 28 January. This marks the sixth consecutive daily inflow and lifting holdings to 100.6moz, the highest level since August 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在贵金属方面，黄金继续飙升至历史新高，昨日收盘上涨近 4.6%。这种强劲势头在亚洲早盘交易中持续，现货黄金一度达到每盎司 5588 美元的历史新高。地缘政治紧张局势、美元走弱以及投资者从货币中撤资推动了贵金属的上涨。黄金年初至今上涨约 27%，而白银则上涨近 65%。ETF 资金流入仍然支持市场。已知的黄金 ETF 持有量在 1 月 28 日增加了 128 千盎司。这标志着连续第六天的资金流入，使持有量达到 1006 万盎司，为 2022 年 8 月以来的最高水平。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Fed Holds Rates Steady At The Top Of The Neutral Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在中性利率上维持利率不变</p>
</div><p>Reserve Bank Of Australia On Track For A February Rate Hike</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亚储备银行计划在 2 月份加息</p>
</div><p>Italian Confidence Data Gradually Improves In January</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>意大利信心数据在 1 月份逐渐改善</p>
</div>

大宗商品动态：由于伊朗风险，油价上涨