<p>1 月 29 日（路透社）- Wayne Cole 对欧洲和全球市场的前景进行了展望。</p>
<p>谁知道构建人工智能会花费这么多。微软（MSFT.O）和 Meta（META.O）的结果显示，资本支出确实达到了令人震惊的金额，前者在这一季度花费了近 380 亿美元，比去年增长了三分之二。Meta 将今年的资本支出计划提高了 73%，范围在 1150 亿到 1350 亿美元之间。</p>
<p>然而，投资者对这些计划的反应截然不同，微软的市值蒸发了 2400 亿美元，而 Meta 则上涨了 1400 亿美元。微软的下跌幅度超过了花旗集团的整体市值，但银行业已经是上个世纪的事情了。</p>
<p>看来 Meta 对其盈利前景的上调确实让投资者感到惊喜，而位于雷德蒙德的巨头则在努力安抚人们对成本最终会超过利润增长的担忧。</p>
<p>不过，一家公司的成本正是另一家公司的收入，正如芯片制造商三星电子（005930.KS）营业利润的三倍增长所示。内存芯片曾经是市场上一个无聊的部分，直到供不应求。</p>
<p>周三的美联储会议也被称为无聊，尽管主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在新闻发布会上显得相当愉快。他多次表示，经济处于 “稳固的基础” 上，前景 “明显改善”。</p>
<p>委员会对维持利率稳定有 “广泛支持”，当然除了两位投票支持降息的成员。</p>
<p>他补充说，美联储已经在利率上做了很多 “正常化”，政策现在只是 “有些限制”，甚至是 “松散中性”。市场将此视为确认 4 月降息的可能性已被排除，6 月降息的可能性保持在 61%，部分原因是投资者假设特朗普总统到时会找到一个更温和的接替者。</p>
<p>不过，鲍威尔并没有被问及他是否会在 5 月辞去美联储理事职务，或者一直待到 2028 年。一位记者想知道，考虑到对美联储独立性的威胁，他为什么会想要离开，但鲍威尔只是微笑。</p>
<p>在货币方面，尽管财政部长贝森特坚称美国仍然有 “强势美元” 政策，但美元看起来仍然脆弱，无论特朗普怎么说。</p>
<p>更有意义的可能是欧盟和欧洲央行官员关于欧元对美元的升值对出口有害以及对通胀构成下行风险的低语。</p>
<p>欧洲央行似乎不太可能实际干预，但瑞士央行更有经验，逃离美元的趋势正在推动瑞士法郎普遍上涨，包括对欧元的汇率。</p>
<p>事实上，瑞士法郎（EURCHF=）已经突破了巨大的图表支撑，这让瑞士人感到担忧。瑞士国家银行的干预可能会对市场造成混乱，因为它通常会用法郎换取欧元，然后将部分欧元分散到美元、英镑等货币中，导致多种货币之间的交叉流动。</p>
<p>可能影响周四市场的关键发展：</p>
<ul>
<li>欧元区消费者信心，1 月份商业信心</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>瑞典央行政策会议，欧洲央行董事会成员皮耶罗·奇波隆尼发言</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>美国 11 月贸易数据，周度失业救济申请</li>
</ul>
<p>大型市值市场</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzjlqrqpw/Pasted%20image%201769526356764.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="858" height="652" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzjlqrqpw/Pasted%20image%201769526356764.png"/></p>
<p>科技困境</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/TECH/gdvzjlqyqvw/chart.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="934" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/TECH/gdvzjlqyqvw/chart.png"/></p>
<p>科技盈利引领潮流</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/49Zb3ma?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="812" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/49Zb3ma"/></p>
<p>（作者：Wayne Cole；编辑：Sonali Paul）</p>

Meta 财报，一站看懂！

<p>这篇文章讨论了微软和 Meta 在人工智能开发方面的重大资本支出，其中微软的支出接近 380 亿美元，而 Meta 则将其支出计划增加了 73%。尽管 Meta 的积极盈利前景使其市场价值提升了 1400 亿美元，但由于对成本管理的担忧，微软的市场价值却下降了 2400 亿美元。文章还强调了美联储即将召开的会议，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济表示信心。此外，还提到了货币波动和中央银行可能的干预，特别是关于欧元和瑞士法郎的情况</p>

<p>Jan 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1 月 29 日（路透社）- Wayne Cole 对欧洲和全球市场的前景进行了展望。</p>
</div><p>Who knew building AI would cost so much. Results from Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Meta (META.O) showed truly nose-bleeding amounts being spent on capex, with the former splashing out almost $38 billion in the quarter, up two-thirds on the previous year. Meta boosted its capital spending plans for this year by 73% to a range between $115 billion and $135 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谁知道构建人工智能会花费这么多。微软（MSFT.O）和 Meta（META.O）的结果显示，资本支出确实达到了令人震惊的金额，前者在这一季度花费了近 380 亿美元，比去年增长了三分之二。Meta 将今年的资本支出计划提高了 73%，范围在 1150 亿到 1350 亿美元之间。</p>
</div><p>Yet investors reacted very differently to those plans, knocking $240 billion off Microsoft’s market value while lifting Meta by $140 billion. The Microsoft drop was more than the entire capitalisation of Citigroup, but then banks are so last-century.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者对这些计划的反应截然不同，微软的市值蒸发了 2400 亿美元，而 Meta 则上涨了 1400 亿美元。微软的下跌幅度超过了花旗集团的整体市值，但银行业已经是上个世纪的事情了。</p>
</div><p>Seems Meta’s upgrade to its earnings outlook really wowed investors, while the Redmond-based giant struggled to placate concerns that costs would ultimately outstrip profit growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看来 Meta 对其盈利前景的上调确实让投资者感到惊喜，而位于雷德蒙德的巨头则在努力安抚人们对成本最终会超过利润增长的担忧。</p>
</div><p>Still, one company’s costs are another’s revenues as shown by a trebling in chip-maker Samsung Electronics’ (005930.KS) operating profits. Memory chips used to be a boring part of the market, until there weren’t enough to go around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，一家公司的成本正是另一家公司的收入，正如芯片制造商三星电子（005930.KS）营业利润的三倍增长所示。内存芯片曾经是市场上一个无聊的部分，直到供不应求。</p>
</div><p>Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting has also been called boring, though Chair Jerome Powell sounded pretty chipper in his presser. The economy was on a “solid footing” he said several times, with a “clearly improving outlook”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三的美联储会议也被称为无聊，尽管主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在新闻发布会上显得相当愉快。他多次表示，经济处于 “稳固的基础” 上，前景 “明显改善”。</p>
</div><p>There was “broad support” on the committee for holding rates steady, apart from the two that voted for a cut of course.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>委员会对维持利率稳定有 “广泛支持”，当然除了两位投票支持降息的成员。</p>
</div><p>The Fed had already done a lot of “normalising” on rates, he added, and policy was now only “somewhat restrictive”, or even “loosely neutral”. Markets took that as confirmation an April cut was off the table, with June staying at 61% in part because investors assume President Trump will have found a more dovish replacement as chair by then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，美联储已经在利率上做了很多 “正常化”，政策现在只是 “有些限制”，甚至是 “松散中性”。市场将此视为确认 4 月降息的可能性已被排除，6 月降息的可能性保持在 61%，部分原因是投资者假设特朗普总统到时会找到一个更温和的接替者。</p>
</div><p>Powell, though, would not be drawn on whether he would step down as a Fed governor in May, or stay on until 2028. One reporter wondered why he would want to leave at all given threats to Fed independence, but Powell merely smiled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，鲍威尔并没有被问及他是否会在 5 月辞去美联储理事职务，或者一直待到 2028 年。一位记者想知道，考虑到对美联储独立性的威胁，他为什么会想要离开，但鲍威尔只是微笑。</p>
</div><p>Over in currencies, the dollar still looked vulnerable despite Treasury Secretary Bessent insisting the U.S. still has a “strong dollar” policy, no matter what Trump might say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在货币方面，尽管财政部长贝森特坚称美国仍然有 “强势美元” 政策，但美元看起来仍然脆弱，无论特朗普怎么说。</p>
</div><p>More meaningful might be the murmurings from EU and ECB officials about the euro’s rise on the dollar being harmful to exports and a downside risk for inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更有意义的可能是欧盟和欧洲央行官员关于欧元对美元的升值对出口有害以及对通胀构成下行风险的低语。</p>
</div><p>Actual intervention from the staid ECB seems highly unlikely, but the Swiss central bank has more form and the flight from the dollar is pushing the franc up broadly, including against the euro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲央行似乎不太可能实际干预，但瑞士央行更有经验，逃离美元的趋势正在推动瑞士法郎普遍上涨，包括对欧元的汇率。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, the franc (EURCHF=) has broken below huge chart support that must have the Swiss worried. Intervention by the SNB can be messy for markets as it usually sells francs for euros, and then spreads some of those euros out among dollars, sterling etc, causing cross-currents in a range of currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，瑞士法郎（EURCHF=）已经突破了巨大的图表支撑，这让瑞士人感到担忧。瑞士国家银行的干预可能会对市场造成混乱，因为它通常会用法郎换取欧元，然后将部分欧元分散到美元、英镑等货币中，导致多种货币之间的交叉流动。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影响周四市场的关键发展：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Euro zone consumer confidence, business sentiment for January</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>欧元区消费者信心，1 月份商业信心</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Riksbank policy meeting, ECB board member Piero Cipollone speaks</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>瑞典央行政策会议，欧洲央行董事会成员皮耶罗·奇波隆尼发言</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>U.S. November trade data, weekly jobless claims</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>美国 11 月贸易数据，周度失业救济申请</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Megacap market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型市值市场</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzjlqrqpw/Pasted%20image%201769526356764.png" alt="" original-src="https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdpzjlqrqpw/Pasted%20image%201769526356764.png"/></p>
<p>Tech troubles</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技困境</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/TECH/gdvzjlqyqvw/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/TECH/gdvzjlqyqvw/chart.png"/></p>
<p>Tech earnings lead the way</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技盈利引领潮流</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/49Zb3ma" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/49Zb3ma"/></p>
<p>(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Sonali Paul)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（作者：Wayne Cole；编辑：Sonali Paul）</p>
</div>

MORNING BID EUROPE-Building AI sure does cost a lot, hope it's worth it

- 微软和 Meta 的资本支出显著增长，前者达 380 亿美元，同比增长 66%。  
- 投资者对两家公司的反应截然不同，微软市值蒸发 2400 亿美元，Meta 反弹 1400 亿美元。  
- 美联储主席表示经济 “稳健”，预计会维持利率不变，市场对未来政策充满关注。

Reuters

微软每日 2 倍做多 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 Meta ETF - Direxion

北美科技软件股指数 ETF - iShares

Roundhill META WeeklyPay ETF

微软

T-Rex 2X Long Microsoft Daily Target ETF

2 倍做多 META ETF - GraniteShares

标普软件与服务 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多 MSFT ETF - GraniteShares

全球科技股指数 ETF - iShares

YieldMax MSFT Option Income Strategy ETF

云计算 ETF - GlobalX

微软每日 1 倍做空 ETF - Direxion

Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft MSFT ETF

早间欧洲投标——构建人工智能的成本确实很高，希望它物有所值