<p>伦敦，2026 年 1 月 29 日（环球新闻通讯社）——自然灾害在 2025 年造成的保险损失超过 1000 亿美元，这是连续第六年超过这一阈值，但与 2024 年相比减少了 400 亿美元。记录的损失水平在美国没有单一飓风登陆的情况下，突显了自然灾害风险的持续严重性和持久性。</p>
<p>今天由威利斯（WTW 业务，纳斯达克代码：WTW）发布的最新一期《自然灾害回顾》，由威利斯再保险提供贡献，深入探讨了气候风险背后的基本趋势、结构性压力、警示信号和系统性脆弱性。</p>
<p>主要要点包括：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>野火必须被视为保险投资组合波动的核心因素</strong>：定价不能仅依赖历史损失。野火模型必须调整为适应当今条件，使用详细的资产级特征来补充暴露数据，并应用现实的替代成本估算。由于全球变暖加剧的长期干旱以及社区持续侵入野生城市接合部，早已预测会使灾难性火灾的发生更加可能，但 2025 年证明了索赔的严重性。  - 案例研究：美国的伊顿和帕利塞德火灾。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>风险建模必须考虑复合风险</strong>：快速接连发生的多重风险所带来的累积损害（例如在雨水饱和的土壤上发生的地震，或在地震后发生的台风）往往会导致索赔支付延迟和与保单持有人的争议。灾害风险融资产品可以量身定制，以减少一系列灾难性事件发生时的经济影响。  - 案例研究：菲律宾超级台风拉加萨。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>洪水风险不再局限于正式定义的区域，预计热带风暴将伴随比以往更强烈的降雨</strong>：随着全球持续变暖，水文谱的两端（洪水和干旱）预计将变得更加严重。2025 年下半年，许多地方出现极端或创纪录的降雨，导致在通常不被认为是高风险地区发生多起严重洪水事件。暴雨洪水发生在强降雨淹没地表排水并导致远离河流、湖泊或海岸的地方出现高水位，已成为需要关注的风险。风险管理者应广泛考虑他们对所有类型高水位的暴露，并相应调整保险覆盖。  - 案例研究：东南亚的西尼亚尔气旋、迪特瓦气旋和科托台风。</li>
</ul>
<p>威利斯再保险自然灾害分析主任卡梅伦·赖伊表示：“好运不能替代合理的战略。即使 2025 年可以被描述为一个适度损失年，灾难风险依然很高，随着全球变暖，物理风险持续增加。保险公司应立即采取行动，保护其投资组合免受不可持续风险累积的影响，并为运势的逆转做好准备。鉴于这些趋势，前进的道路不是远离风险，而是鼓励对韧性和缓解措施的投资。风险管理者和可持续发展团队可以通过共同努力，借助建模、定价和风险意识的进步来保护商业价值。”</p>
<p>威利斯研究网络天气与气候研究负责人斯科特·圣乔治表示：“即使没有任何飓风在美国登陆，2025 年自然灾害造成的全球保险损失仍超过 1000 亿美元。这告诉我们，灾难性风险的底线比以往任何时候都要高。除了即时的头条新闻，我们的专家团队深入分析了结构性压力、被忽视的警示信号和系统性脆弱性，这些因素加剧了 2025 年自然灾害的影响。我们对不断演变的风险格局的看法为寻求更新风险视角的保险公司提供了建议，包括许多市场中日益严重的可负担性危机。”</p>
<p>完整报告可在此下载。</p>
<p><strong>关于 WTW</strong></p>
<p>在 WTW（纳斯达克代码：WTW），我们提供以数据驱动、洞察为导向的解决方案，涵盖人员、风险和资本领域。利用我们在 140 个国家和市场服务的同事的全球视野和地方专业知识，我们帮助组织优化战略、增强组织韧性、激励员工并最大化绩效。</p>
<p>与客户肩并肩工作，我们发现可持续成功的机会——并提供推动您前进的视角。</p>
<p>了解更多信息，请访问 wtwco.com。</p>
<p><strong>媒体联系人</strong></p>
<p>乔·巴雷特</p>
<p>jo.barrett@wtwco.com / +44 7940703911</p>
<p>劳伦·大卫</p>
<p>lauren.david@wtwco.com / +44 7385947619</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/ti/query-bmY9T1RZME5UQTJOU00zTXprNE5EVTVJekl3TVRBNE1URT0?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1" height="1" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/ti/query-bmY9T1RZME5UQTJOU00zTXprNE5EVTVJekl3TVRBNE1URT0"/></p>
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<p>自然灾害在 2025 年造成的保险损失超过 1000 亿美元，这标志着连续第六年超过这一门槛，尽管相比 2024 年减少了 400 亿美元。威利斯的报告强调了自然灾害的持续风险，强调需要更新野火模型并在风险评估中考虑复合风险。报告警告称，气候变化正在加剧洪水和干旱风险，敦促保险公司调整策略并投资于韧性建设。专家强调，即使美国没有飓风，风险形势仍然很高，保险公司需要采取主动措施</p>

<p>LONDON, Jan. 29, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Natural catastrophes caused more than US$100 billion in insured losses in 2025, the sixth consecutive year above that threshold, yet a decrease of $40 billion when compared with 2024. The level of losses recorded, without a single hurricane making landfall in the United States, highlights the continued severity and persistence of natural catastrophe risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伦敦，2026 年 1 月 29 日（环球新闻通讯社）——自然灾害在 2025 年造成的保险损失超过 1000 亿美元，这是连续第六年超过这一阈值，但与 2024 年相比减少了 400 亿美元。记录的损失水平在美国没有单一飓风登陆的情况下，突显了自然灾害风险的持续严重性和持久性。</p>
</div><p>The latest edition of the Natural Catastrophe Review published today by Willis, a WTW business (NASDAQ: WTW), with contributions from Willis Re, delves into the underlying trends, structural pressures, warning signs and systemic vulnerabilities behind climate risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天由威利斯（WTW 业务，纳斯达克代码：WTW）发布的最新一期《自然灾害回顾》，由威利斯再保险提供贡献，深入探讨了气候风险背后的基本趋势、结构性压力、警示信号和系统性脆弱性。</p>
</div><p>Key takeaways include:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要要点包括：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Wildfire must be considered a core contributor to the volatility of insurance portfolios</strong> <em>:</em> pricing cannot rely exclusively on historical losses. Wildfire</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>野火必须被视为保险投资组合波动的核心因素</strong>：定价不能仅依赖历史损失。野火模型必须调整为适应当今条件，使用详细的资产级特征来补充暴露数据，并应用现实的替代成本估算。由于全球变暖加剧的长期干旱以及社区持续侵入野生城市接合部，早已预测会使灾难性火灾的发生更加可能，但 2025 年证明了索赔的严重性。  - 案例研究：美国的伊顿和帕利塞德火灾。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>models must be adjusted to present-day conditions, use detailed asset level characteristics to supplement exposure data and apply realistic estimates for replacement costs. Prolonged drought enhanced by global warming and the continuing encroachment of communities into the wildland-urban interface has long been predicted to make catastrophic fires much more likely, but 2025 proved how severe claims can get.</p>
<ul>
<li>Case study: Eaton and Palisades Fires, United States</li>
<li><strong>Risk modelling has to consider compound perils:</strong> cumulative damage brought on by multiple perils in quick succession (such as earthquakes on rain saturated soil, or typhoons following seismic events) can often lead to delayed claims payments and disagreements with policy holders. Disaster risk financing products can be tailored to reduce the economic impact of a sequence of catastrophic events when they happen.
<ul>
<li>Case study: Super Typhoon Ragasa, Philippines</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>Warming North Atlantic is changing hurricane behaviour:</strong> 2025 was the first year in a decade where no hurricanes made landfall in the US, but other places were not so fortunate. The review analyses why the Caribbean may see more Category 5 storms and for a longer season. It was previously uncommon for major hurricanes to form in October, but as the North Atlantic has warmed, the environmental conditions that are favourable to hurricane formation are lasting later in the year. That same warming also allows storms to become much stronger very quickly.
<ul>
<li>Case study: Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>风险建模必须考虑复合风险</strong>：快速接连发生的多重风险所带来的累积损害（例如在雨水饱和的土壤上发生的地震，或在地震后发生的台风）往往会导致索赔支付延迟和与保单持有人的争议。灾害风险融资产品可以量身定制，以减少一系列灾难性事件发生时的经济影响。  - 案例研究：菲律宾超级台风拉加萨。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Flood risk is no longer confined to formally defined zones, and more intense rainfall than ever before is expected to accompany tropical storms:</strong> as the world continues to warm, both ends of the hydrological spectrum (flood and drought) are expected to become more intense. The second half of 2025 featured extreme or record-setting rainfall in many locations, leading to numerous cases of severe flooding in places not typically considered to be high risk. Pluvial flooding, which occurs when intense rainfall overwhelms surface drainage and causes high water in places far removed from rivers, lakes or coasts, has become a risk to watch. Risk managers ought to think broadly about their exposure to all types of high water and adjust their insurance coverage accordingly.
<ul>
<li>Case study: Cyclone Senyar, Cyclone Ditwah and Typhoon Koto, Southeast Asia</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>洪水风险不再局限于正式定义的区域，预计热带风暴将伴随比以往更强烈的降雨</strong>：随着全球持续变暖，水文谱的两端（洪水和干旱）预计将变得更加严重。2025 年下半年，许多地方出现极端或创纪录的降雨，导致在通常不被认为是高风险地区发生多起严重洪水事件。暴雨洪水发生在强降雨淹没地表排水并导致远离河流、湖泊或海岸的地方出现高水位，已成为需要关注的风险。风险管理者应广泛考虑他们对所有类型高水位的暴露，并相应调整保险覆盖。  - 案例研究：东南亚的西尼亚尔气旋、迪特瓦气旋和科托台风。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Cameron Rye, Director of Natural Catastrophe Analytics at Willis Re said: “Good luck is no substitute for sound strategy. Even if 2025 can be described as a moderate loss year, catastrophe risk remains high, and physical risks continue to increase as the world warms. Insurers should act now to protect their portfolios against unsustainable accumulations of risk and prepare for a reversal of fortune. The path forward given these trends isn’t to walk away from risk, but instead to encourage investment in resilience and mitigation. Risk managers and sustainability teams can protect business value by working together, supported by advances in modelling, pricing and risk awareness.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威利斯再保险自然灾害分析主任卡梅伦·赖伊表示：“好运不能替代合理的战略。即使 2025 年可以被描述为一个适度损失年，灾难风险依然很高，随着全球变暖，物理风险持续增加。保险公司应立即采取行动，保护其投资组合免受不可持续风险累积的影响，并为运势的逆转做好准备。鉴于这些趋势，前进的道路不是远离风险，而是鼓励对韧性和缓解措施的投资。风险管理者和可持续发展团队可以通过共同努力，借助建模、定价和风险意识的进步来保护商业价值。”</p>
</div><p>Scott St. George, Head of Weather and Climate research at the Willis Research Network, said: “Even without any hurricanes making landfall in the United States, in 2025 insured losses from natural catastrophes were still over $100 billion worldwide. That tells us the risk floor for catastrophic perils is higher than ever. Beyond the immediate headlines, our team of experts digs into the structural pressures, overlooked warning signs, and systemic vulnerabilities that multiplied the impact of natural catastrophes in 2025. Our perspectives on the evolving risk landscape provide advice to insurers seeking to update their view of these risks, including the burgeoning affordability crisis in many markets.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威利斯研究网络天气与气候研究负责人斯科特·圣乔治表示：“即使没有任何飓风在美国登陆，2025 年自然灾害造成的全球保险损失仍超过 1000 亿美元。这告诉我们，灾难性风险的底线比以往任何时候都要高。除了即时的头条新闻，我们的专家团队深入分析了结构性压力、被忽视的警示信号和系统性脆弱性，这些因素加剧了 2025 年自然灾害的影响。我们对不断演变的风险格局的看法为寻求更新风险视角的保险公司提供了建议，包括许多市场中日益严重的可负担性危机。”</p>
</div><p>The full report can be downloaded here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>完整报告可在此下载。</p>
</div><p><strong>About WTW</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>关于 WTW</strong></p>
</div><p>At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 WTW（纳斯达克代码：WTW），我们提供以数据驱动、洞察为导向的解决方案，涵盖人员、风险和资本领域。利用我们在 140 个国家和市场服务的同事的全球视野和地方专业知识，我们帮助组织优化战略、增强组织韧性、激励员工并最大化绩效。</p>
</div><p>Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success - and provide perspective that moves you.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与客户肩并肩工作，我们发现可持续成功的机会——并提供推动您前进的视角。</p>
</div><p>Learn more at wtwco.com.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多信息，请访问 wtwco.com。</p>
</div><p><strong>Media contacts</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>媒体联系人</strong></p>
</div><p>Jo Barrett</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>乔·巴雷特</p>
</div><p>jo.barrett@wtwco.com / +44 7940703911</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>jo.barrett@wtwco.com / +44 7940703911</p>
</div><p>Lauren David</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳伦·大卫</p>
</div><p>lauren.david@wtwco.com / +44 7385947619</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>lauren.david@wtwco.com / +44 7385947619</p>
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Willis Towers Watson 警告称，2025 年的自然灾害损失不应让市场产生虚假的安全感 | WTW 股票新闻