<p>美联储维持利率不变，暂停宽松周期</p><p>美联储基金期货显示下次降息可能在六月份</p><p>投资者在等待特朗普提名接替鲍威尔担任主席的人选</p><p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf, Laura Matthews 和 Suzanne McGee</p><p>纽约，1 月 29 日（路透社）——华尔街预计美联储的货币宽松周期将在鲍威尔主席任期结束前暂停，任期至 5 月，这迫使投资者寄希望于年内进一步降息以支持看涨的市场定位。</p><p>美联储在周三结束的为期两天的政策会议上维持利率不变，暂停了支持美国股市的宽松周期。利率期货预计下次降息将在六月份的会议上进行，而届时将由新的美联储主席主持。特朗普多次表示他预计很快会宣布他的提名人选。</p><p>“我们的看法是，经济状况还不错，但通胀有些顽固，美联储维持现状是正确的，” 内布拉斯加州奥马哈的财富管理服务提供商 Orion 的首席投资官 Tim Holland 表示。“如果鲍威尔继续掌舵，我们会非常惊讶如果再有一次降息。”</p><p>尽管投资者预计美联储在会议上会暂停宽松周期，但他们寄希望于央行保持鸽派立场，年内进一步降息以支持股市和经济。市场预计下次降息可能在六月份，但一些投资者表示，进一步的宽松可能会更早到来，而另一些则认为通胀担忧可能会完全阻止今年的更多降息。</p><p>投资者注意到，考虑到美联储会议通常会导致资产剧烈波动，周三的决定市场反应平静。基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）当天几乎没有变化，在交易期间首次突破 7000 点。</p><p>美国美元指数（=USD）在会议后基本维持了日内涨幅，因为其从四年低点反弹。基准 10 年期国债收益率（US10YT=RR）当天小幅上升至约 4.25%。</p><p>“市场对此反应不大，主要是因为鲍威尔还有两次会议，” 野村的发达市场首席经济学家 David Seif 表示。“在鲍威尔想要提供前瞻性指引的情况下，显然有一个明确的到期日。”</p><h3>2026 年会有更多降息吗？</h3><p>就业形势的疲软促使美联储——其目标是维持就业和通胀的稳定——去年将利率降低至当前的 3.50%-3.75%。该委员会在 9 月、10 月和 12 月的会议上将该利率下调了四分之一个百分点，此前暂停了九个月。</p><p>周三，鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场显示出 “一些稳定的迹象”，而通胀 “仍然有些高企”。</p><p>“在鲍威尔主席任期内，您需要这些动态发生变化，才能使美联储再次降息，” State Street 投资管理公司的首席投资策略师 Michael Arone 表示。</p><p>美联储基金期货显示，在接下来的三月和四月的两次会议上降息的可能性不到 30%，但在六月份降息的可能性为 65%，根据 LSEG 周三晚间的数据。市场仍在预计到 12 月将再降两次四分之一个百分点。</p><p>尽管如此，MetLife 投资管理公司的首席市场策略师 Drew Matus 表示，三月份可能会降息，并补充说：“人们可能对前景过于乐观。”</p><p>Matus 表示，目前的环境是 “提升资产质量的好机会”，包括从高收益固定收益和其他风险较高的策略中转移。</p><h3>下任主席，下次降息？</h3><p>投资者试图预测鲍威尔交接后政策的走向，包括下一任领导者在多大程度上会更加鸽派。由于本月早些时候披露鲍威尔面临被刑事调查的威胁，关于美联储能否在没有政治干预的情况下运作的担忧加剧，当时美联储主席称这是特朗普施压央行降息的一部分。</p><p>接任候选人包括美联储理事 Christopher Waller、前美联储理事 Kevin Warsh、黑石集团的首席债券投资经理 Rick Rieder，以及特朗普经济顾问 Kevin Hassett，尽管特朗普也表示他更倾向于让 Hassett 留在现职。</p><p>“我们开始考虑在新主席领导下美联储政策的样子，尤其是现在我认为我们真的在几个关键候选人之间达成共识，” Glenmede 的投资策略副总裁 Michael Reynolds 表示。</p><p>Glenmede 对小型股持超配态度，预计今年可能会有一到两次降息，这将有助于 “强化这一论点，” Reynolds 表示。</p><p>特朗普周二表示，他将很快宣布他的美联储主席提名，并预测在新主席接任后利率将下降。</p><p>Clearwater Analytics 的研究主管 Matthew Vegari 表示，他认为降息的决定不会完全由新领导者决定。</p><p>“更鸽派的美联储主席会影响其他投票成员吗？我不确定，” Vegari 说。“主席可以施加很大影响力，但这些都是在其领域内经验丰富的专业人士。”</p>

标普 500 ETF - SPDR

标普 500 ETF - Vanguard

标普 500 ETF - iShares

标普 500 指数

<p>华尔街预计美联储的宽松周期将暂停，投资者押注于年内的降息。美联储维持利率不变，期货市场暗示下次降息可能在新任主席的领导下于六月进行。尽管一些投资者预计降息会更早，但通胀担忧可能会推迟这一进程。市场对美联储的决定反应平静，标准普尔 500 指数保持稳定。投资者还在考虑新任美联储主席的影响，特朗普准备宣布他的提名人选，潜在候选人正在讨论中</p>

<p>Fed holds rates steady, pausing easing cycle</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储维持利率不变，暂停宽松周期</p>
</div><p>Fed fund futures suggest next cut could be June</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储基金期货显示下次降息可能在六月份</p>
</div><p>Investors waiting for Trump’s nominee to replace Powell as chair</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在等待特朗普提名接替鲍威尔担任主席的人选</p>
</div><p>By Lewis Krauskopf, Laura Matthews and Suzanne McGee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lewis Krauskopf, Laura Matthews 和 Suzanne McGee</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Wall Street is anticipating a pause in the Federal Reserve’s monetary easing cycle to last through the remainder of Chair Jerome Powell’s term that ends in May, forcing investors to bank on further rate cuts later in the year to support bullish positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约，1 月 29 日（路透社）——华尔街预计美联储的货币宽松周期将在鲍威尔主席任期结束前暂停，任期至 5 月，这迫使投资者寄希望于年内进一步降息以支持看涨的市场定位。</p>
</div><p>The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday at the end of its two-day policy meeting, pausing an easing cycle which has supported U.S. stocks. Interest rate futures priced in the next rate cut at the June meeting, which would be under the next Fed chair. Trump has repeatedly said he expects to announce his pick soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在周三结束的为期两天的政策会议上维持利率不变，暂停了支持美国股市的宽松周期。利率期货预计下次降息将在六月份的会议上进行，而届时将由新的美联储主席主持。特朗普多次表示他预计很快会宣布他的提名人选。</p>
</div><p>“Our two cents is that the economy is doing okay, but inflation is a bit sticky, and the Fed was right to stand pat,” said Tim Holland, chief investment officer at wealth management service provider Orion in Omaha, Nebraska. “We would be very surprised if we get another rate cut with Mr. Powell at the helm.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们的看法是，经济状况还不错，但通胀有些顽固，美联储维持现状是正确的，” 内布拉斯加州奥马哈的财富管理服务提供商 Orion 的首席投资官 Tim Holland 表示。“如果鲍威尔继续掌舵，我们会非常惊讶如果再有一次降息。”</p>
</div><p>While investors anticipated the Fed to pause its easing cycle at the meeting, they are banking on the central bank maintaining a dovish posture with more cuts later in the year that can support equities and the economy. Markets are pricing in the next likely cut in June, but some investors say further easing could come sooner, while others say that inflation worries could prevent more cuts entirely this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管投资者预计美联储在会议上会暂停宽松周期，但他们寄希望于央行保持鸽派立场，年内进一步降息以支持股市和经济。市场预计下次降息可能在六月份，但一些投资者表示，进一步的宽松可能会更早到来，而另一些则认为通胀担忧可能会完全阻止今年的更多降息。</p>
</div><p>Investors noted the calm market reaction to Wednesday’s decision, given that Fed meetings often result in wild swings for assets. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) ended little changed on the day, after breaching the 7,000 level for the first time during the session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者注意到，考虑到美联储会议通常会导致资产剧烈波动，周三的决定市场反应平静。基准标准普尔 500 指数（.SPX）当天几乎没有变化，在交易期间首次突破 7000 点。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. dollar index (=USD) largely held its daily gain following the meeting, as it rebounded from a four-year low. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (US10YT=RR) moved modestly higher on the day to about 4.25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国美元指数（=USD）在会议后基本维持了日内涨幅，因为其从四年低点反弹。基准 10 年期国债收益率（US10YT=RR）当天小幅上升至约 4.25%。</p>
</div><p>“The market didn’t react much to this, largely because Powell has two more meetings,” said David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura. “To the extent that Powell wants to give forward guidance, there’s a clear expiration.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“市场对此反应不大，主要是因为鲍威尔还有两次会议，” 野村的发达市场首席经济学家 David Seif 表示。“在鲍威尔想要提供前瞻性指引的情况下，显然有一个明确的到期日。”</p>
</div><h3>MORE CUTS IN 2026?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2026 年会有更多降息吗？</h3>
</div><p>A weakening jobs picture had prompted the Fed – which seeks to maintain stability in employment and inflation – to lower rates last year to its current level of 3.50%-3.75%. The committee cut that rate by a quarter of a percentage point at its meetings in September, October, and December following a nine-month pause.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就业形势的疲软促使美联储——其目标是维持就业和通胀的稳定——去年将利率降低至当前的 3.50%-3.75%。该委员会在 9 月、10 月和 12 月的会议上将该利率下调了四分之一个百分点，此前暂停了九个月。</p>
</div><p>On Wednesday, Powell said the job market has shown “some signs of stabilization,” while inflation “remains somewhat elevated.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周三，鲍威尔表示，劳动力市场显示出 “一些稳定的迹象”，而通胀 “仍然有些高企”。</p>
</div><p>“You would need for those dynamics to change in order for the Fed to cut rates again during Chairman Powell’s term,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在鲍威尔主席任期内，您需要这些动态发生变化，才能使美联储再次降息，” State Street 投资管理公司的首席投资策略师 Michael Arone 表示。</p>
</div><p>Fed funds futures suggested a less than 30% chance of a cut at either of the next two meetings in March and April, but a 65% chance of one in June, according to LSEG data late on Wednesday. Markets were still pricing in nearly two more quarter-point cuts by December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储基金期货显示，在接下来的三月和四月的两次会议上降息的可能性不到 30%，但在六月份降息的可能性为 65%，根据 LSEG 周三晚间的数据。市场仍在预计到 12 月将再降两次四分之一个百分点。</p>
</div><p>Still, Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, said a cut could come in March, adding that “people are being maybe a little overly optimistic that the outlook is very clear.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，MetLife 投资管理公司的首席市场策略师 Drew Matus 表示，三月份可能会降息，并补充说：“人们可能对前景过于乐观。”</p>
</div><p>Matus said the current environment is a “good opportunity to be moving up in quality for assets,” including shifting away from high-yield fixed income and other riskier strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Matus 表示，目前的环境是 “提升资产质量的好机会”，包括从高收益固定收益和其他风险较高的策略中转移。</p>
</div><h3>NEXT CHAIR, NEXT CUT?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>下任主席，下次降息？</h3>
</div><p>Investors are trying to anticipate policy once Powell hands over the baton, including the extent to which the next leader will lean more dovish. Concerns over the Fed’s ability to operate free of political interference ratcheted up after the revelation earlier this month that Powell faced a threatened criminal probe, with the Fed chief at the time calling it part of a push by Trump to pressure the central bank for rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者试图预测鲍威尔交接后政策的走向，包括下一任领导者在多大程度上会更加鸽派。由于本月早些时候披露鲍威尔面临被刑事调查的威胁，关于美联储能否在没有政治干预的情况下运作的担忧加剧，当时美联储主席称这是特朗普施压央行降息的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Candidates to take the role include Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock’s chief bond investment manager, Rick Rieder, and Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett, although Trump has also said he preferred to keep Hassett in his current post.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接任候选人包括美联储理事 Christopher Waller、前美联储理事 Kevin Warsh、黑石集团的首席债券投资经理 Rick Rieder，以及特朗普经济顾问 Kevin Hassett，尽管特朗普也表示他更倾向于让 Hassett 留在现职。</p>
</div><p>“We’re starting to think about what Fed policy looks like under a new chair, especially now that I think we’re really coalescing around a couple key candidates,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们开始考虑在新主席领导下美联储政策的样子，尤其是现在我认为我们真的在几个关键候选人之间达成共识，” Glenmede 的投资策略副总裁 Michael Reynolds 表示。</p>
</div><p>Glenmede is overweight small-cap stocks, with the potential for one or two more rate cuts this year helping to “reinforce that thesis,” Reynolds said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Glenmede 对小型股持超配态度，预计今年可能会有一到两次降息，这将有助于 “强化这一论点，” Reynolds 表示。</p>
</div><p>Trump on Tuesday said he will soon announce his Fed chair pick, and predicted interest rates would decline after the new chair takes over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普周二表示，他将很快宣布他的美联储主席提名，并预测在新主席接任后利率将下降。</p>
</div><p>Matthew Vegari, head of research at Clearwater Analytics, said he does not think that a rate cut decision would be solely at the new leader’s discretion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Clearwater Analytics 的研究主管 Matthew Vegari 表示，他认为降息的决定不会完全由新领导者决定。</p>
</div><p>“Would a more dovish Fed chair sway the other voting members? I’m not sure,” Vegari said. “The chair can exert a lot of influence, but these are seasoned professionals at the top of their game.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“更鸽派的美联储主席会影响其他投票成员吗？我不确定，” Vegari 说。“主席可以施加很大影响力，但这些都是在其领域内经验丰富的专业人士。”</p>
</div>

ANALYSIS-Investors bet on later Fed cuts to support markets after pause

- 美联储保持利率不变，暂停货币宽松周期。  
- 市场预计下一次降息将在 6 月，具体取决于新任主席。  
- 投资者对经济前景持乐观态度，但仍存在通胀担忧。

分析 - 投资者押注美联储暂停后将推迟降息来支撑市场