<p>美国股市大幅下跌；纳斯达克指数下跌约 2.5%</p>
<p>科技股是标准普尔 500 指数中表现最弱的板块；能源股领涨</p>
<p>欧洲 STOXX 600 指数转为下跌，最新下跌约 0.2%</p>
<p>美元上涨；原油上涨约 3%；黄金和比特币均下滑</p>
<p>美国 10 年期国债收益率微降至约 4.24%。欢迎来到路透社记者为您带来的实时市场报道。您可以与我们分享您的想法，</p>
<h3>星期四数据盛宴：稳定的失业救济申请，强劲的工厂订单，自 1992 年以来最大的贸易逆差跃升</h3>
<p>星期四为投资者提供了一系列混合的经济指标，显示出稳定的劳动力市场、强于预期的美国工厂商品订单以及自《本能》上映以来最大的贸易逆差跃升。</p>
<p>上周，209,000 名美国工人排队等待失业办公室（USJOB=ECI），较上周修正后的 210,000 略有下降，比分析师预期的多出 4,000。剔除每周波动，初次失业救济申请的四周移动平均继续保持横盘，略有上升趋势，处于健康劳动力市场流动的范围内。</p>
<p>但是，如何解释在去年裁员公告激增 58% 之后，失业救济申请数据持续低迷呢？根据 Challenger Gray 的报告。</p>
<p>持续失业救济申请（USJOBN=ECI）在一周滞后报告中意外下降 2.0%，降至 182.7 万，低于经济学家的预测 33,000。这一指标仍然处于高位，考虑到招聘疲软和消费者对就业前景的悲观预期，表明这一下降至少部分归因于福利到期，而被裁员的工人仍然很难找到替代工作。</p>
<p>“在消费者调查中，认为工作难找的比例上升至 2021 年 2 月以来的最高水平，这表明尽管持续申请人数下降，失业率仍在上升，” Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席美国经济学家 Samuel Tombs 写道。“从最近的申请数据推断劳动力市场已经转变是一个错误。”</p>
<p>此外，劳工部发布了第三季度劳动成本（USLCP=ECI）和生产率（USPROP=ECI）的第二次评估，保持不变，分别为-1.9% 和 4.9%。另外，商务部发布了 11 月份的国际贸易报告（USTBAL=ECI）。</p>
<p>报告显示，美国进口和出口商品及服务的价值差距大幅扩大 94.5%，达到 568 亿美元。</p>
<p>这一读数比市场预期宽 40%，并标志着近 34 年来最大的贸易逆差激增，确切地说是自 1992 年 3 月以来。为了提供背景，1993 年 3 月是南非投票结束种族隔离的时刻。</p>
<p>在细节上，出口下降 3.6%，而特朗普关税的减弱效应促使进口在 10 月份下降 3.0% 后反弹 5.0%。</p>
<p>进口占美国国际贸易总额的绝大部分，是 GDP 的拖累因素。</p>
<p>总之，进口的反弹可能会对第四季度 GDP 造成影响。</p>
<p>“这是朝着更正常贸易逆差迈出的一步，” High Frequency Economics 首席经济学家 Carl Weinberg 表示，他补充说该报告 “支持 FOMC 昨天的声明，即经济正在以稳健的速度扩张。”</p>
<p>最后，美国工厂制造商品的新订单（USFORD=ECI）在 11 月份跃升 2.7%，远超分析师预期的 1.6% 的增幅，并标志着从 10 月份 1.2% 的下降中显著反弹。</p>
<p>深入分析，商业飞机类别的订单激增 97.6%。剔除与运输相关的商品，新订单仅微增 0.2%。</p>
<p>国防相关资本货物订单下降 14.3% 限制了整体数字的增长。</p>
<p>如下面的图表所示，自 2022 年中以来，工厂订单基本保持在约 6000 亿美元的平稳区间。这与 ISM 制造业 PMI 相吻合，后者在同一时间段内一直保持在收缩区间。</p>
<p>（Stephen Culp）</p>
<h3>早前市场动态：纳斯达克下跌超过 1%，微软令人失望 点击这里 低美元如何影响收益？ 点击这里 道琼斯工业平均指数目前仍未突破 50,000 点击这里 AI 驱动商业的赢家和输家 点击这里 油价和欧元，欧洲央行的波动 点击这里 黄金过热：从反弹到狂热？ 点击这里 芯片和矿业帮助 STOXX 抵消软件的阴霾 点击这里 开盘前：收益增加，SAP 拖累 DAX 点击这里 建造 AI 确实成本高，希望值得 点击这里</h3>
<p>美国市场的早期快照</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgpdqzqxmvo/Pasted%20image%201769700631928.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="707" height="675" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgpdqzqxmvo/Pasted%20image%201769700631928.png"/></p>
<p>初次失业救济申请和 Challenger 裁员</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/dwvkqbqkavm/initialclaims.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="601" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/dwvkqbqkavm/initialclaims.png"/></p>
<p>持续失业救济申请和就业信心</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/klpyjyjqgvg/contclaims.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="649" height="401" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/klpyjyjqgvg/contclaims.png"/></p>
<p>贸易平衡</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/egpbbxbjkpq/tradebal.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/egpbbxbjkpq/tradebal.png"/></p>
<p>工厂订单</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/lgvdqzqjmpo/ford.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="376" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/lgvdqzqjmpo/ford.png"/></p>
<p>( )</p>

<p>美国股市大幅下跌，纳斯达克指数下跌约 2.5%。经济指标显示，失业救济申请保持稳定，工厂订单强劲，贸易赤字大幅增加 94.5%，达到 568 亿美元，为 1992 年以来的最高水平。初次申请失业救济的人数略微减少至 209,000，而持续申请人数意外下降。工厂订单增长 2.7%，主要受到商用飞机订单激增 97.6% 的推动。然而，国防相关资本货物订单的下降抑制了整体增长。这些混合的经济数据表明劳动力市场复杂，可能对第四季度 GDP 产生影响</p>

<p>US stocks sharply lower; Nasdaq down ~2.5%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股市大幅下跌；纳斯达克指数下跌约 2.5%</p>
</div><p>Tech weakest S&amp;P 500 sector; Energy leads gainers</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技股是标准普尔 500 指数中表现最弱的板块；能源股领涨</p>
</div><p>Euro STOXX 600 index turns red, last off ~0.2%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲 STOXX 600 指数转为下跌，最新下跌约 0.2%</p>
</div><p>Dollar gains; crude up ~3%; gold, bitcoin both slide</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元上涨；原油上涨约 3%；黄金和比特币均下滑</p>
</div><p>US 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~4.24% Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国 10 年期国债收益率微降至约 4.24%。欢迎来到路透社记者为您带来的实时市场报道。您可以与我们分享您的想法，</p>
</div><h3>THURSDAY DATA PARADE: STEADY CLAIMS, SOLID FACTORY ORDERS, BIGGEST TRADE DEFICIT JUMP SINCE 1992</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>星期四数据盛宴：稳定的失业救济申请，强劲的工厂订单，自 1992 年以来最大的贸易逆差跃升</h3>
</div><p>Thursday offered investors a mixed platter of economic indicators, featuring a stable labor market, stronger-than-expected orders of merchandise from U.S. factories and the largest jump in the trade deficit since “Basic Instinct” ruled the box office.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>星期四为投资者提供了一系列混合的经济指标，显示出稳定的劳动力市场、强于预期的美国工厂商品订单以及自《本能》上映以来最大的贸易逆差跃升。</p>
</div><p>Last week, 209,000 U.S. workers joined the queue outside the unemployment office (USJOB=ECI) , down slightly from the previous week’s upwardly revised 210,000, and 4,000 more than analysts expected. Ironing out weekly volatility, the four-week moving average of initial jobless claims continues to move sideways, with a slight upward bias and within the range associated with healthy labor market churn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，209,000 名美国工人排队等待失业办公室（USJOB=ECI），较上周修正后的 210,000 略有下降，比分析师预期的多出 4,000。剔除每周波动，初次失业救济申请的四周移动平均继续保持横盘，略有上升趋势，处于健康劳动力市场流动的范围内。</p>
</div><p>But how do we square these consistently low claims data on the heels of last year’s 58% jump in layoff announcements, per Challenger Gray?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，如何解释在去年裁员公告激增 58% 之后，失业救济申请数据持续低迷呢？根据 Challenger Gray 的报告。</p>
</div><p>Ongoing jobless claims (USJOBN=ECI) , reported on a one-week lag, unexpectedly dropped by 2.0% to 1.827 million, or 33,000 fewer than economists predicted. This metric remains elevated, and in light of weak hiring and a dour consumer jobs outlook suggests the dip is at least partly attributable to benefits expiry, and laid-off workers are still finding it difficult to find a replacement gig.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续失业救济申请（USJOBN=ECI）在一周滞后报告中意外下降 2.0%，降至 182.7 万，低于经济学家的预测 33,000。这一指标仍然处于高位，考虑到招聘疲软和消费者对就业前景的悲观预期，表明这一下降至少部分归因于福利到期，而被裁员的工人仍然很难找到替代工作。</p>
</div><p>”(The) rise in the proportion of people saying jobs are hard to get - in the Conference Board’s survey of consumers - to its highest level since February 2021, suggests the unemployment rate is still rising, despite the decline in continuing claims” writes Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “It is a mistake to infer from the recent claims data that the labor market has turned a corner.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在消费者调查中，认为工作难找的比例上升至 2021 年 2 月以来的最高水平，这表明尽管持续申请人数下降，失业率仍在上升，” Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席美国经济学家 Samuel Tombs 写道。“从最近的申请数据推断劳动力市场已经转变是一个错误。”</p>
</div><p>Additionally, in an echo from the ancient past, the Labor Department released its second take on third-quarter labor costs (USLCP=ECI) and productivity (USPROP=ECI) , leaving them unrevised at -1.9% and 4.9%, respectively. Separately, the Commerce Department released its international trade report (USTBAL=ECI) for November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，劳工部发布了第三季度劳动成本（USLCP=ECI）和生产率（USPROP=ECI）的第二次评估，保持不变，分别为-1.9% 和 4.9%。另外，商务部发布了 11 月份的国际贸易报告（USTBAL=ECI）。</p>
</div><p>It showed the difference in the value of goods and services imported to the U.S. and those exported abroad, widened by a whopping 94.5% to $56.8 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告显示，美国进口和出口商品及服务的价值差距大幅扩大 94.5%，达到 568 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The reading is 40% wider than consensus, and marked the largest trade deficit surge in nearly 34 years, or since March 1992, to be exact. For perspective, March 1993 is when South Africa voted to end Apartheid.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一读数比市场预期宽 40%，并标志着近 34 年来最大的贸易逆差激增，确切地说是自 1992 年 3 月以来。为了提供背景，1993 年 3 月是南非投票结束种族隔离的时刻。</p>
</div><p>Under the hood, exports fell by 3.6%, while the waning effects of the Trump tariffs prompted a 5.0% rebound in imports on the heels of October’s 3.0% dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在细节上，出口下降 3.6%，而特朗普关税的减弱效应促使进口在 10 月份下降 3.0% 后反弹 5.0%。</p>
</div><p>Imports, which account for the lion’s share of the United States’ total international trade, are a GDP detractor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进口占美国国际贸易总额的绝大部分，是 GDP 的拖累因素。</p>
</div><p>Bottom line, the bounce-back in imports could put a dent in Q4 GDP.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，进口的反弹可能会对第四季度 GDP 造成影响。</p>
</div><p>“This is a step back toward more normal trade deficits,” says Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, who adds that the report “supports the FOMC’s statement yesterday that the economy is expanding at a solid pace.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这是朝着更正常贸易逆差迈出的一步，” High Frequency Economics 首席经济学家 Carl Weinberg 表示，他补充说该报告 “支持 FOMC 昨天的声明，即经济正在以稳健的速度扩张。”</p>
</div><p>Finally, new orders for U.S. factory-made merchandise (USFORD=ECI) jumped by 2.7% in November, breezing past the 1.6% increase analysts expected and marking a decisive rebound from October’s 1.2% dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，美国工厂制造商品的新订单（USFORD=ECI）在 11 月份跃升 2.7%，远超分析师预期的 1.6% 的增幅，并标志着从 10 月份 1.2% 的下降中显著反弹。</p>
</div><p>Drilling down, the commercial aircraft category is the jaw-dropper, jumping 97.6%. Excluding transportation-related goods, new orders rose by a languid 0.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>深入分析，商业飞机类别的订单激增 97.6%。剔除与运输相关的商品，新订单仅微增 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>A 14.3% drop in orders for defense-related capital goods held the headline number in check.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国防相关资本货物订单下降 14.3% 限制了整体数字的增长。</p>
</div><p>As the graphic below shows, factory orders have largely leveled off to a flat, range-bound trendline of around $600 billion since mid-2022. This coincides with ISM manufacturing PMI, which has remained fairly consistently in contraction territory over the same time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如下面的图表所示，自 2022 年中以来，工厂订单基本保持在约 6000 亿美元的平稳区间。这与 ISM 制造业 PMI 相吻合，后者在同一时间段内一直保持在收缩区间。</p>
</div><p>(Stephen Culp)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（Stephen Culp）</p>
</div><h3>EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS: NASDAQ FALLS MORE THAN 1% AS MICROSOFT DISAPPOINTS CLICK HERE HOW COULD A LOWER US DOLLAR IMPACT EARNINGS? CLICK HERE DOW INDUSTRIALS SO FAR FADING SHY OF 50,000 CLICK HERE WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM AI-DRIVEN COMMERCE CLICK HERE OIL AND THE EURO, SWINGS AND ROUNDABOUTS FOR THE ECB CLICK HERE GOLD OVERHEATS: FROM RALLY TO MANIA? CLICK HERE CHIPS AND MINERS HELP STOXX OFFSET SOFTWARE GLOOM CLICK HERE BEFORE THE BELL: EARNINGS RAMP UP, SAP DRAG FOR THE DAX CLICK HERE BUILDING AI SURE DOES COST A LOT, HOPE ITS WORTH IT CLICK HERE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>早前市场动态：纳斯达克下跌超过 1%，微软令人失望 点击这里 低美元如何影响收益？ 点击这里 道琼斯工业平均指数目前仍未突破 50,000 点击这里 AI 驱动商业的赢家和输家 点击这里 油价和欧元，欧洲央行的波动 点击这里 黄金过热：从反弹到狂热？ 点击这里 芯片和矿业帮助 STOXX 抵消软件的阴霾 点击这里 开盘前：收益增加，SAP 拖累 DAX 点击这里 建造 AI 确实成本高，希望值得 点击这里</h3>
</div><p>Early snapshot for US market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国市场的早期快照</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgpdqzqxmvo/Pasted%20image%201769700631928.png" alt="" original-src="https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgpdqzqxmvo/Pasted%20image%201769700631928.png"/></p>
<p>Initial jobless claims and Challenger layoffs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>初次失业救济申请和 Challenger 裁员</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/dwvkqbqkavm/initialclaims.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/dwvkqbqkavm/initialclaims.png"/></p>
<p>Continuing jobless claims and jobs confidence</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续失业救济申请和就业信心</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/klpyjyjqgvg/contclaims.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/klpyjyjqgvg/contclaims.png"/></p>
<p>Trade balance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贸易平衡</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/egpbbxbjkpq/tradebal.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/egpbbxbjkpq/tradebal.png"/></p>
<p>Factory orders</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工厂订单</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/lgvdqzqjmpo/ford.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/lgvdqzqjmpo/ford.png"/></p>
<p>( )</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>( )</p>
</div>

LIVE MARKETS-Thursday data parade: Steady claims, solid factory orders, biggest trade deficit jump since 1992

- 美国股市大幅下跌，纳斯达克指数跌约 2.5%。  
- 经济指标显示，11 月美国工厂新订单增长 2.7%。  
- 贸易逆差激增 94.5%，创近 34 年来最大增幅。

Reuters

美国大盘成长股 ETF - Charles Schwab

全美成长股指数 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

3 倍做多纳指 ETF - ProShares

现场市场 - 周四数据发布：申请稳定，工厂订单稳固，自 1992 年以来贸易逆差最大增幅