<p>价值 2 万亿美元（1.5 万亿英镑）的私人信贷行业正受到金融监管机构的质询，原因是人们担心其未被识别的损失可能引发金融系统崩溃，《每日电讯报》可以透露。</p>
<p>金融行为监管局的官员们最近几周对所谓的影子银行施加了压力，这些银行是投机性人工智能热潮日益重要的资金来源，要求它们更严格地降低那些可能无法全额偿还的贷款的价值。</p>
<p>金融行为监管局的机密讨论是由城市消息人士透露的，随着私人信贷基金的快速增长，人们对其竞争传统银行向公司发放贷款的能力表示越来越担忧。根据穆迪最近的一份报告，到 2030 年，私人信贷资产的价值将接近 4 万亿美元。</p>
<p>影子银行的批评者指责它们采用 “虚幻估值”，轻易地计算未实现的收益，但在贷款明显出现问题时却很少承认损失。这与 “市场估值” 会计方法形成对比，后者被视为更透明和严格，但可能会给投资者带来不必要的波动。</p>
<p>自上次金融危机以来，这种贷款已成为一些全球最大资产管理公司（包括 Ares Management、黑石集团、阿波罗全球管理和凯雷集团）盈利增长的丰厚来源。</p>
<p>过去几年，该行业迅速发展。来自海湾主权财富基金的大量资金寻求比公共市场更高的回报，满足了数据中心建设者对贷款的巨大需求，他们押注于人工智能热潮将变得盈利。私募股权数据库 Preqin 的数据显示，从 2021 年到 2025 年 5 月，约有 500 亿美元的数据中心项目由私人市场资助。</p>
<p>金融行为监管局拒绝评论其接触了哪些私人信贷主要参与者关于贷款估值的做法。没有任何个别提供者被指控不当行为。</p>
<p>消息人士表示，金融行为监管局并不专注于向特定行业发放的贷款，而是对向公用事业等关键企业的贷款给予额外审查。</p>
<p>然而，英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利最近警告称，影子银行行业迫切需要变得更安全，因为人们越来越担心它可能成为下一个金融危机的根源。</p>
<p>这些基金通常自己也从传统银行借款，使整个系统面临风险。</p>
<h2>养老金风险</h2>
<p>根据评级机构穆迪的数据，美国国内银行现在已向影子银行贷款 1.2 万亿美元，其中估计有 3000 亿美元是贷款给私人信贷提供者的。</p>
<p>华尔街银行已成为私人信贷行业最坚定的金融支持者之一，根据美联储最近的一份报告，从 2020 年到 2025 年，它们向私人债务基金的贷款量激增了 145%。</p>
<p>它们对借款的追求最近吸引了零售投资者和保险公司，引发了人们对普通养老金领取者可能面临损失的担忧，因为在提供者无法迅速返还现金的情况下，可能会出现突发的清算。</p>
<p>这一风险被认为推动了金融行为监管局的行动。官员们与英格兰银行及其国际同行（如美国证券交易委员会）密切合作，研究私人信贷贷款的估值实践。</p>
<p>上周，全球最大的资产管理公司黑岩将一个大型美国私人信贷基金的估值下调了 19%。尚不清楚这一不寻常的举措是否是响应监管压力，黑岩对此行动未作评论，这一举动在华尔街引发了震动。</p>
<p>政治家们也越来越关注影子银行的危险。去年夏天，美国参议员们对信用评级机构表示担忧，称它们被指控为虚高的贷款估值提供掩护，并因配合而获得奖励。</p>
<p>金融行为监管局也被认为在关注私人信贷公司如何依赖评级机构发放贷款。</p>
<p>上议院金融服务监管委员会特别指出财政部在面对影子银行可能带来的风险时的 “消极态度”，并表示政府 “对影子银行潜在风险的理解有限”。</p>
<p>财政部表示，近年来它与监管机构合作，显著增加了对非银行部门的关注，并且拥有一个强大而灵活的框架来保护金融稳定。</p>
<h2>裂痕显现</h2>
<p>传奇的困境债务投资者霍华德·马克斯去年表示，他不认为私人信贷对金融系统构成风险。</p>
<p>但他补充道：“私人信贷从未退潮，这意味着我们没有机会看到它的缺陷。在我看来，主要问题是一些管理者急于筹集资本并投入使用——以便他们可以再次筹集更多——以至于放松了信用标准，未能要求足够的安全边际。</p>
<p>“如果经济和市场再次出现困难时期，我们将看到结果。”</p>
<p>私人信贷的高估值的迹象已经开始显现。汽车融资提供商 Tricolor 和汽车零部件供应商 First Brands 的破产，似乎毫无预警地给私人信贷行业带来了数十亿美元的损失，尽管伴随着欺诈指控。</p>
<p>《每日电讯报》去年报道了关于陷入困境的宽带提供商 TalkTalk 从私人信贷巨头 Ares 借款的担忧。虽然 TalkTalk 的上市债券以其原始价值的一小部分交易，但尚不清楚 Ares 是否已将其 5 亿英镑的贷款标记为市场价值。</p>
<p>据了解，Ares 至少每季度对贷款进行评估，并通过第三方机构进行验证，这些机构也会进行年度审计。</p>
<p>金融行为监管局已被联系以获取评论。</p>

<p>英国金融行为监管局（FCA）正在对价值 2 万亿美元的私人信贷行业进行审查，原因是担心未被识别的损失可能导致金融崩溃。作为人工智能繁荣资金来源的影子银行迅速增长，面临着准确评估贷款价值的压力。批评者指责它们使用 “神话定价” 来评估，这可能掩盖风险。FCA 正在与英格兰银行合作，以改善贷款评估实践，因担心如果这些公司未能迅速返还现金，普通投资者可能会面临损失。政治家们也对影子银行可能带来的危险表示担忧</p>

<p>The $2tn (£1.5tn) private credit industry is being quizzed by the City watchdog over fears its unrecognised losses could fuel a financial system meltdown, The Telegraph can reveal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价值 2 万亿美元（1.5 万亿英镑）的私人信贷行业正受到金融监管机构的质询，原因是人们担心其未被识别的损失可能引发金融系统崩溃，《每日电讯报》可以透露。</p>
</div><p>Officials from the Financial Conduct Authority have in recent weeks been piling pressure on so-called shadow banks – an increasingly critical source of funding for the speculative AI boom – to more rigorously mark down the value of loans that are at risk of not being repaid in full.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行为监管局的官员们最近几周对所谓的影子银行施加了压力，这些银行是投机性人工智能热潮日益重要的资金来源，要求它们更严格地降低那些可能无法全额偿还的贷款的价值。</p>
</div><p>The FCA’s confidential discussions were revealed by City sources amid growing concern about the rapid rise of private credit funds, which compete with traditional banks to make loans to companies. Private credit assets will be worth almost $4tn by 2030, according to a recent report by Moody’s.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行为监管局的机密讨论是由城市消息人士透露的，随着私人信贷基金的快速增长，人们对其竞争传统银行向公司发放贷款的能力表示越来越担忧。根据穆迪最近的一份报告，到 2030 年，私人信贷资产的价值将接近 4 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Critics of the shadow banks have accused them of “mark-to-myth” valuations that readily account for unrealised gains but rarely take hits even as a loan is obviously turning bad. This is in contrast to “mark-to-market” accounting, which is seen as more transparent and rigorous but can mean unwanted turbulence for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影子银行的批评者指责它们采用 “虚幻估值”，轻易地计算未实现的收益，但在贷款明显出现问题时却很少承认损失。这与 “市场估值” 会计方法形成对比，后者被视为更透明和严格，但可能会给投资者带来不必要的波动。</p>
</div><p>Since the last financial crisis such lending has become a lucrative source of fee growth for some of the world’s biggest money managers including Ares Management, Blackstone, Apollo Global Management and the Carlyle Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自上次金融危机以来，这种贷款已成为一些全球最大资产管理公司（包括 Ares Management、黑石集团、阿波罗全球管理和凯雷集团）盈利增长的丰厚来源。</p>
</div><p>The industry has accelerated rapidly in the past few years. A flood of cash from Gulf sovereign wealth funds seeking higher returns than are available on public markets has met massive demand for loans from data centre builders betting the AI boom will turn profitable. Figures from private equity database Preqin suggest that about $50bn of data centre projects were funded by private markets between 2021 and May 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几年，该行业迅速发展。来自海湾主权财富基金的大量资金寻求比公共市场更高的回报，满足了数据中心建设者对贷款的巨大需求，他们押注于人工智能热潮将变得盈利。私募股权数据库 Preqin 的数据显示，从 2021 年到 2025 年 5 月，约有 500 亿美元的数据中心项目由私人市场资助。</p>
</div><p>The FCA declined to comment on which of the major players in private credit it had approached about their loan valuation practices. There is no suggestion of malpractice by any individual provider.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行为监管局拒绝评论其接触了哪些私人信贷主要参与者关于贷款估值的做法。没有任何个别提供者被指控不当行为。</p>
</div><p>Sources said the FCA was not focused on loans issued to a particular sector, but on giving extra scrutiny to lending to critical businesses such as utilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>消息人士表示，金融行为监管局并不专注于向特定行业发放的贷款，而是对向公用事业等关键企业的贷款给予额外审查。</p>
</div><p>However, Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, recently warned of an “urgent need” to make the shadow banking industry safer amid growing fears it could be the cause of the next financial crisis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，英格兰银行行长安德鲁·贝利最近警告称，影子银行行业迫切需要变得更安全，因为人们越来越担心它可能成为下一个金融危机的根源。</p>
</div><p>Funds often themselves borrow money from traditional banks, exposing the wider system to risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些基金通常自己也从传统银行借款，使整个系统面临风险。</p>
</div><h2>Pensions risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>养老金风险</h2>
</div><p>US domestic banks have now lent $1.2tn to shadow banks, according to ratings agency Moody’s, which estimated that $300bn of these loans were to private credit providers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据评级机构穆迪的数据，美国国内银行现在已向影子银行贷款 1.2 万亿美元，其中估计有 3000 亿美元是贷款给私人信贷提供者的。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street banks have emerged as among the staunchest financial supporters of the private credit industry, with the volume of their loans to private debt funds soaring 145pc from 2020 to 2025, according to a recent report by the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街银行已成为私人信贷行业最坚定的金融支持者之一，根据美联储最近的一份报告，从 2020 年到 2025 年，它们向私人债务基金的贷款量激增了 145%。</p>
</div><p>Their hunt for cash to lend has more recently drawn in retail investors and insurers, stoking fears that ordinary pensioners could face losses in a sudden reckoning in which providers are unable to quickly return cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它们对借款的追求最近吸引了零售投资者和保险公司，引发了人们对普通养老金领取者可能面临损失的担忧，因为在提供者无法迅速返还现金的情况下，可能会出现突发的清算。</p>
</div><p>This risk is understood to be driving FCA action. Officials are collaborating closely on private credit loan valuation practices with the Bank of England and its international peers such as the Securities and Exchange Commission in the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一风险被认为推动了金融行为监管局的行动。官员们与英格兰银行及其国际同行（如美国证券交易委员会）密切合作，研究私人信贷贷款的估值实践。</p>
</div><p>Last week BlackRock, the world’s biggest money manager, marked down a large US private credit fund by 19pc. It is unknown whether the unusual step was taken in response to regulatory pressure and BlackRock has declined to comment on the action, which sent tremors through Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，全球最大的资产管理公司黑岩将一个大型美国私人信贷基金的估值下调了 19%。尚不清楚这一不寻常的举措是否是响应监管压力，黑岩对此行动未作评论，这一举动在华尔街引发了震动。</p>
</div><p>Politicians are also increasingly concerned about the dangers of shadow banking. In an echo of the financial crisis, US senators last summer raised concerns about credit ratings agencies. They were accused of providing cover for inflated loan valuations and being rewarded for playing along.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政治家们也越来越关注影子银行的危险。去年夏天，美国参议员们对信用评级机构表示担忧，称它们被指控为虚高的贷款估值提供掩护，并因配合而获得奖励。</p>
</div><p>The FCA is also understood to be looking at how private credit firms rely on ratings agencies to issue loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行为监管局也被认为在关注私人信贷公司如何依赖评级机构发放贷款。</p>
</div><p>The House of Lords’ financial services regulation committee has singled out the Treasury for its “passivity” in the face of the possible risks from shadow banking, adding that the Government had “demonstrated a limited grasp” of the potential risks from shadow banking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上议院金融服务监管委员会特别指出财政部在面对影子银行可能带来的风险时的 “消极态度”，并表示政府 “对影子银行潜在风险的理解有限”。</p>
</div><p>The Treasury said that in recent years it had worked together with regulators to significantly increase its focus on the non-banks sectors and that it has a robust, flexible framework to protect financial stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>财政部表示，近年来它与监管机构合作，显著增加了对非银行部门的关注，并且拥有一个强大而灵活的框架来保护金融稳定。</p>
</div><h2>Cracks emerge</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>裂痕显现</h2>
</div><p>Howard Marks, the legendary distressed-debt investor, said last year that he did not believe private credit was a risk to the financial system.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>传奇的困境债务投资者霍华德·马克斯去年表示，他不认为私人信贷对金融系统构成风险。</p>
</div><p>But he added: “The tide has never gone out on private credit, meaning we haven’t had an opportunity to see its flaws. As far as I’m concerned, the main one is the possibility that some managers have been in such a hurry to scoop up capital and put it to work – so they could come back for more – that they relaxed their credit standards and failed to demand a sufficient margin of safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他补充道：“私人信贷从未退潮，这意味着我们没有机会看到它的缺陷。在我看来，主要问题是一些管理者急于筹集资本并投入使用——以便他们可以再次筹集更多——以至于放松了信用标准，未能要求足够的安全边际。</p>
</div><p>“If there’s ever another difficult period in the economy and the market, we’ll see the result.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果经济和市场再次出现困难时期，我们将看到结果。”</p>
</div><p>Glimpses of overvalued private credit have begun to emerge. The bankruptcies of the car finance provider Tricolor and car-parts supplier First Brands both imposed multibillion-dollar losses on the private credit industry seemingly out of the blue, albeit amid allegations of fraud.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>私人信贷的高估值的迹象已经开始显现。汽车融资提供商 Tricolor 和汽车零部件供应商 First Brands 的破产，似乎毫无预警地给私人信贷行业带来了数十亿美元的损失，尽管伴随着欺诈指控。</p>
</div><p>The Telegraph last year reported concerns about borrowing by the troubled broadband provider TalkTalk from the private credit giant Ares. While TalkTalk’s listed bonds were trading at a fraction of their original value, it was not clear that Ares had marked its £500m lending to the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《每日电讯报》去年报道了关于陷入困境的宽带提供商 TalkTalk 从私人信贷巨头 Ares 借款的担忧。虽然 TalkTalk 的上市债券以其原始价值的一小部分交易，但尚不清楚 Ares 是否已将其 5 亿英镑的贷款标记为市场价值。</p>
</div><p>It is understood that Ares evaluates loans on at least a quarterly basis and validates them with third party agencies, which are also audited annually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据了解，Ares 至少每季度对贷款进行评估，并通过第三方机构进行验证，这些机构也会进行年度审计。</p>
</div><p>The FCA was contacted for comment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融行为监管局已被联系以获取评论。</p>
</div>

‘影子银行’ 因隐藏损失可能引发的崩溃威胁而受到质询