<p>本周，当比特币在中位数$80,000 以上找到买盘兴趣时，牛市避免了一次崩溃。价格从一个关键区间反弹，这一喘息空间让交易者关注市场的内部结构，而不仅仅是头条价格。</p>
<p>报告指出，通往持久复苏的道路可能需要改善流动性，市场观察者将链上指标视为真正需要关注的信号。</p>
<p><strong>市场结构与流动性：聚光灯下</strong></p>
<p>Glassnode 和其他分析师指出，供应压力的紧张快照：大约 22% 的流通比特币的价格低于其购买价，这增加了如果支撑位失效，可能出现大规模抛售的机会。这是一个在压力下可能易手的非小比例的币。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>任何有意义的回归强劲市场反弹的转变应在流动性敏感指标中反映出来，例如实现利润/损失比率（90 日移动平均）。历史上，持续上升至约 5 以上通常预示着流动性流入市场的恢复…… https://t.co/ct0FhOLFXhpic.twitter.com/JqbfdlRk2b</p>
<p>2026 年 1 月 28 日</p>
</blockquote>
<p>目前关注的具体指标是 90 天的实现利润/损失比率。历史上，稳定复苏的时期往往与该比率上升至约 5 以上相吻合，许多分析师将其视为真实资金重新流入市场的信号。如果这一模式重现，反弹将更具持续性；在此之前，反弹看起来容易受到削减。</p>
<p>根据在 X 上分享的一篇帖子，Glassnode 表示，在比特币成功捍卫$80,700 至$83,400 支撑区间后，关注点已转向流动性。</p>
<p>报告指出，任何朝着持久反弹的举动都需要在基于流动性的信号中显现，特别关注实现利润和损失比率的 90 日移动平均。</p>
<p><strong>比特币价格走势与地缘政治</strong></p>
<p>周中交易使比特币处于高位$80,000 附近的谨慎区间。地缘政治头条正在动摇风险偏好，促使一些交易者转向更安全的资产，并引发短暂的波动。</p>
<p>这使得即使在价格测试更高水平时，后续买盘也保持低迷，这有助于解释为什么一些短期押注集中在向低位$90,000 的挤压上，随后再出现获利了结。流入交易所的资金仍然较低</p>
<p>交易所流入，作为卖压的粗略指标，仍然处于低迷状态。市场追踪者分享的数据表明，流入 Binance 的每月 BTC 流入量远低于长期平均水平——仅为过去几年典型水平的一小部分——这表明许多持有者选择将币保持在交易所之外，而不是转移出售。这降低了即时下行风险，但并不能证明买家会大规模入场。期货与流动性抢夺的风险</p>
<p>期货市场和期权定位暗示，在低位$90,000 附近可能出现短期流动性抢夺，那里止损和杠杆聚集，可能被迅速拉入一次快速波动。这种波动通常是剧烈且短暂的。它们可能会造成突破的印象，但一旦额外流动性被消耗，现货市场又会回落。</p>
<p><em>图片来自 Pexels，图表来自 TradingView</em></p>

<p>比特币最近在 8 万美元中间价位上的价格稳定引发了市场流动性的关注，这对可持续复苏至关重要。分析师指出，约 22% 的流通比特币低于购买价格，增加了抛售压力的风险。实现利润/亏损比率是一个值得关注的关键指标；历史上，当该比率上升至 5 以上时，通常预示着流动性重新流入。目前，由于地缘政治紧张局势，交易依然谨慎，低交易所流入表明持有者不愿意出售。期货市场显示出短期流动性抓取的潜力，但持续的买入兴趣仍然不确定</p>

<p>Bulls kept a collapse from happening this week when Bitcoin found buying interest above the mid-$80,000s. Prices bounced off a key range, and that breathing room has traders watching the market’s plumbing — not just the headline price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周，当比特币在中位数$80,000 以上找到买盘兴趣时，牛市避免了一次崩溃。价格从一个关键区间反弹，这一喘息空间让交易者关注市场的内部结构，而不仅仅是头条价格。</p>
</div><p>Reports note that the path to a lasting recovery is likely to go through improved liquidity, with market watchers pointing to on-chain measures as the real signal to watch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，通往持久复苏的道路可能需要改善流动性，市场观察者将链上指标视为真正需要关注的信号。</p>
</div><p><strong>At Center Stage: Market Structure And Liquidity</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>市场结构与流动性：聚光灯下</strong></p>
</div><p>Glassnode and other analysts have flagged a tight snapshot of supply stress: roughly 22% of circulating Bitcoin is sitting below its purchase price, which raises the chance that outsized selling could kick in if support fails. That’s a nontrivial share of coins that could change hands under pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Glassnode 和其他分析师指出，供应压力的紧张快照：大约 22% 的流通比特币的价格低于其购买价，这增加了如果支撑位失效，可能出现大规模抛售的机会。这是一个在压力下可能易手的非小比例的币。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Any meaningful transition back toward a strong market rally should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA). A sustained rise above ~5 has historically signalled a renewal of liquidity inflows into the market.… https://t.co/ct0FhOLFXhpic.twitter.com/JqbfdlRk2b</p>
<p>Jan 28, 2026</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>任何有意义的回归强劲市场反弹的转变应在流动性敏感指标中反映出来，例如实现利润/损失比率（90 日移动平均）。历史上，持续上升至约 5 以上通常预示着流动性流入市场的恢复…… https://t.co/ct0FhOLFXhpic.twitter.com/JqbfdlRk2b</p>
<p>2026 年 1 月 28 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The specific metric now being watched is the realized profit/loss ratio on a 90-day basis. Historical episodes of steady recoveries have tended to line up with this ratio moving above about 5, which many analysts treat as a sign that real money is rotating back into the market. A repeat of that pattern would make rallies more durable; until then, rallies look vulnerable to being trimmed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前关注的具体指标是 90 天的实现利润/损失比率。历史上，稳定复苏的时期往往与该比率上升至约 5 以上相吻合，许多分析师将其视为真实资金重新流入市场的信号。如果这一模式重现，反弹将更具持续性；在此之前，反弹看起来容易受到削减。</p>
</div><p>According to a post shared on X, Glassnode said focus has moved toward liquidity after Bitcoin managed to defend the $80,700 to $83,400 support zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据在 X 上分享的一篇帖子，Glassnode 表示，在比特币成功捍卫$80,700 至$83,400 支撑区间后，关注点已转向流动性。</p>
</div><p>Reports note that any move toward a lasting rally would need to show up in liquidity-based signals, with close attention on the 90-day moving average of the realized profit and loss ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>报告指出，任何朝着持久反弹的举动都需要在基于流动性的信号中显现，特别关注实现利润和损失比率的 90 日移动平均。</p>
</div><p><strong>Bitcoin Price Action And Geopolitics</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>比特币价格走势与地缘政治</strong></p>
</div><p>Midweek trading left Bitcoin in a cautious band near the high-$80,000s. Geopolitical headlines have been shaking risk appetite, nudging some traders into safer assets and prompting short bursts of volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周中交易使比特币处于高位$80,000 附近的谨慎区间。地缘政治头条正在动摇风险偏好，促使一些交易者转向更安全的资产，并引发短暂的波动。</p>
</div><p>That has kept follow-through buying muted even when prices test higher levels, and it helps explain why some short-term bets are focused on a squeeze toward the low-$90,000s before profit-taking reappears. Flows Into Exchanges Still Low</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这使得即使在价格测试更高水平时，后续买盘也保持低迷，这有助于解释为什么一些短期押注集中在向低位$90,000 的挤压上，随后再出现获利了结。流入交易所的资金仍然较低</p>
</div><p>Exchange inflows, a rough barometer of selling pressure, remain subdued. Data shared by market trackers shows monthly BTC inflows to Binance at levels far below the long-term average — only a fraction of what was typical in past years — suggesting many holders are choosing to keep coins off exchanges rather than move them for sale. That reduces immediate downside risk, but it does not prove that buyers will step in en masse.Futures And The Risk Of A Liquidity Grab</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易所流入，作为卖压的粗略指标，仍然处于低迷状态。市场追踪者分享的数据表明，流入 Binance 的每月 BTC 流入量远低于长期平均水平——仅为过去几年典型水平的一小部分——这表明许多持有者选择将币保持在交易所之外，而不是转移出售。这降低了即时下行风险，但并不能证明买家会大规模入场。期货与流动性抢夺的风险</p>
</div><p>Futures markets and options positioning hint at a possible short-term liquidity grab near the low-$90,000s, where stops and leverage cluster and can be pulled into a quick move. Such moves are often violent and brief. They can create the impression of a breakout, only for spot markets to settle back once the extra liquidity is consumed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期货市场和期权定位暗示，在低位$90,000 附近可能出现短期流动性抢夺，那里止损和杠杆聚集，可能被迅速拉入一次快速波动。这种波动通常是剧烈且短暂的。它们可能会造成突破的印象，但一旦额外流动性被消耗，现货市场又会回落。</p>
</div><p><em>Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来自 Pexels，图表来自 TradingView</em></p>
</div>

Bitcoin Needs Deeper Liquidity Before A Real Recovery Takes Shape: Analysts

- 比特币在 $80,000 中段找到买盘，阻止了市场崩溃。  
- 22% 的流通比特币低于购买价，增加了抛售风险。  
- 90 天的实现盈亏比是关注的指标，反映流动性变化。

分析师认为，比特币在真正复苏之前需要更深层次的流动性