<p>最初，当电动车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.45%）发布其第四季度业绩时，股价上涨。但在周四市场开盘不久后，股价当天的回报转为负值。这进一步加剧了近期股价的疲软。截至目前，股价在过去一个月内下跌超过 11%。</p><p>股价在财报发布后的波动体现了市场对特斯拉最新季度更新的两极化看法。</p><p>一方面，特斯拉报告称其主动监督的全自动驾驶订阅（FSD）激增。此外，它还宣布计划在 2026 年上半年将其仍在测试阶段的自动驾驶共享服务扩展到七个主要城市。特斯拉还表示，预计将在年底前开始生产人形机器人。</p><p>另一方面，特斯拉的第四季度财务结果令人失望。收入同比下降 3%，每股收益下降 60%。</p><p>那么，投资者应该怎么做？在过去一个月中买入特斯拉股价的回调，希望公司的新举措能够取得成效，还是在公司面临短期挑战的情况下保持谨慎？</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/ae54974fb3b56adf9162437f557d5e8e?x-oss-process=style/lg" width="3840" height="2160" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/ae54974fb3b56adf9162437f557d5e8e"/></figure><p>网络出租车。图片来源：特斯拉。</p><h2 id="u5yy919ri">特斯拉的软件和机器人雄心</h2><p>特斯拉在其第四季度更新中披露，活跃的 FSD 订阅同比增长 38%，这可能是市场最初对特斯拉财报反应积极的关键因素之一。</p><p>这与公司在推出其自动驾驶共享服务 Robotaxi 方面的稳步进展，以及计划在年底前开始生产人形机器人的计划相结合，显示出公司在扩大其 人工智能、软件和基于车队的收入来源方面取得了更多进展。</p><p>此外，特斯拉在其第四季度更新中重要地表示，预计将在四月开始生产其网络出租车，这是一款专为自动驾驶设计的车辆，公司表示将不配备方向盘。</p><h2 id="3i2se5jqb">短期障碍</h2><p>但随着投资者等待这些催化剂的实现，特斯拉的汽车交付和财务状况正朝着错误的方向发展。季度业绩受到汽车收入同比下降 11% 的影响，因为该期间的总交付量下降了 16%。此外，特斯拉在其第四季度财报电话会议中表示，计划在下个季度开始逐步减少高价位的 Model X 和 Model S 车型的生产。</p><p>在季度更新的展望部分，公司显著地没有提供 2026 年汽车交付的指导，令投资者对今年的交付情况产生疑问。相反，特斯拉仅表示与其交付量预期相关：</p><blockquote><p>我们专注于最大化工厂的产能利用率。交付和部署将受到我们产品的总需求、供应链准备情况以及客户销售或自有车队使用之间的分配决策的影响。</p></blockquote><p>最后，值得注意的是，特斯拉的自由现金流也在朝着错误的方向发展。其第四季度的自由现金流约为 14 亿美元，同比下降 30%。由于公司计划在人工智能计算基础设施和制造方面进行大量投资，自由现金流在 2026 年可能会持续受到抑制。管理层预测 2026 年的资本支出将超过 200 亿美元，是 2025 年约 85 亿美元资本支出的两倍多。</p><p>展开</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0caed0aaf9711d594678c43130c4de0b?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="特斯拉股票报价" width="80" height="80" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/0caed0aaf9711d594678c43130c4de0b"/></figure><h2 id="9hicn6k3n">NASDAQ: TSLA</h2><p>特斯拉</p><p>今日变动</p><p>(-3.45%) $-14.90</p><p>当前价格</p><p>$416.56</p><h3 id="quataltyw">关键数据点</h3><p>市值</p><p>$1.4 万亿</p><p>日内区间</p><p>$414.62 - $440.23</p><p>52 周区间</p><p>$214.25 - $498.83</p><p>成交量</p><p>8200 万</p><p>平均成交量</p><p>7400 万</p><p>毛利率</p><p>18.03%</p><p>所有这些意味着，特斯拉的股票高度依赖于其新举措的表现，即 Robotaxi、即将推出的网络出租车以及人形机器人的计划。当然，特斯拉的能源存储业务继续表现良好，第四季度部署了 14.2 吉瓦时的存储，同比增长 29%。因此，能源存储销售也应该为公司的长期增长做出良好贡献。</p><p>但由于财务状况面临短期阻力，并且这些新举措需要大量支出，我对在当前价格买入特斯拉股票持谨慎态度——即使这些令人兴奋的举措即将到来。当前股价的估值极高，正如其 市盈率 所示，截至目前约为 389。</p><p>鉴于特斯拉的估值极高，市场可以说已经将 Robotaxi 的成功推出、高利润软件收入的持续快速增长以及其汽车业务的最终复苏的预期价格纳入了考虑。考虑到这一点，我认为目前保持观望是明智的选择。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

1.25 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多 TSLA ETF - GraniteShares

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Leverage Shares

TESL

<p>特斯拉的股票在过去一个月下跌了超过 11%，原因是其第四季度业绩显示收入下降了 3%，每股收益下降了 60%。尽管全自动驾驶订阅服务激增，并计划推出机器人出租车和类人机器人等新举措，但短期内仍面临车辆交付下降和现金流担忧等挑战。分析师建议保持谨慎，因为特斯拉的估值较高，未来车辆交付的不确定性使其目前成为一个不太吸引人的买入机会</p>

<p>Initially, when electric-car maker <strong>Tesla</strong>( TSLA 3.45%) released its fourth-quarter results, the stock popped. But shortly after the market opened on Thursday, the stock's return for the day turned negative. This has added to the stock's weakness in recent weeks. As of this writing, the stock is down more than 11% over the past month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，当电动车制造商 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.45%）发布其第四季度业绩时，股价上涨。但在周四市场开盘不久后，股价当天的回报转为负值。这进一步加剧了近期股价的疲软。截至目前，股价在过去一个月内下跌超过 11%。</p>
</div><p>The stock's volatility following the earnings report exemplifies the bifurcated takeaway from Tesla's latest quarterly update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价在财报发布后的波动体现了市场对特斯拉最新季度更新的两极化看法。</p>
</div><p>On one hand, Tesla reported a surge in its active supervised full self-driving subscriptions (FSD). Further, it announced plans for its autonomous ride-sharing service, which is still in testing phases, to roll out to seven more major cities in the first half of 2026. And Tesla also said it expects to begin production of a humanoid robot before the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，特斯拉报告称其主动监督的全自动驾驶订阅（FSD）激增。此外，它还宣布计划在 2026 年上半年将其仍在测试阶段的自动驾驶共享服务扩展到七个主要城市。特斯拉还表示，预计将在年底前开始生产人形机器人。</p>
</div><p>Then there's Tesla's fourth-quarter financial results, which were painful to look at. Revenue fell 3% year over year, and earnings per share fell 60%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，特斯拉的第四季度财务结果令人失望。收入同比下降 3%，每股收益下降 60%。</p>
</div><p>So, what should investors do? Buy into the pullback in Tesla's stock price over the past month, hoping that the company's newer initiatives pay off, or exercise caution in light of the company's near-term challenges?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，投资者应该怎么做？在过去一个月中买入特斯拉股价的回调，希望公司的新举措能够取得成效，还是在公司面临短期挑战的情况下保持谨慎？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84NTM2MDgvaXMtdGVzbGEtc3RvY2stYS1idXktbm93LmpwZyZ3PTM4NDA" alt="Tesla's Cybercab parked on the curb with its doors and hatchback open." original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F853608%2Fis-tesla-stock-a-buy-now.jpg&amp;w=3840&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<p>Cybercab. Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>网络出租车。图片来源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's software and robotics ambitions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的软件和机器人雄心</h2>
</div><p>Likely one of the key factors behind the market's initial upbeat reaction to Tesla's earnings report, Tesla disclosed in its fourth-quarter update that its active FSD subscriptions rose 38% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在其第四季度更新中披露，活跃的 FSD 订阅同比增长 38%，这可能是市场最初对特斯拉财报反应积极的关键因素之一。</p>
</div><p>This, combined with the company's steady progress in rolling out its autonomous ride-sharing service, Robotaxi, and its plans to begin producing humanoid robots before the end of the year, shows how the company is making more progress in growing its AI (artificial intelligence), software, and fleet-based revenue streams.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与公司在推出其自动驾驶共享服务 Robotaxi 方面的稳步进展，以及计划在年底前开始生产人形机器人的计划相结合，显示出公司在扩大其 人工智能、软件和基于车队的收入来源方面取得了更多进展。</p>
</div><p>In addition, Tesla importantly said in its fourth-quarter update that it expects to start producing its Cybercab, a purpose-built autonomous-driving vehicle that the company says will ship without a steering wheel, in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特斯拉在其第四季度更新中重要地表示，预计将在四月开始生产其网络出租车，这是一款专为自动驾驶设计的车辆，公司表示将不配备方向盘。</p>
</div><h2>Near-term hurdles</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>短期障碍</h2>
</div><p>But as investors wait for these catalysts to materialize, Tesla's vehicle deliveries and financials are moving in the wrong direction. Weighing on the quarter's results was an 11% year-over-year decline in automotive revenue as total deliveries during the period fell 16%. In addition, Tesla said in its fourth-quarter earnings call that it plans to begin winding down production of its higher-priced Model X and Model S vehicles next quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着投资者等待这些催化剂的实现，特斯拉的汽车交付和财务状况正朝着错误的方向发展。季度业绩受到汽车收入同比下降 11% 的影响，因为该期间的总交付量下降了 16%。此外，特斯拉在其第四季度财报电话会议中表示，计划在下个季度开始逐步减少高价位的 Model X 和 Model S 车型的生产。</p>
</div><p>And in the outlook section of its quarterly update, the company notably refrained from providing guidance for vehicle deliveries in 2026, leaving investors questioning what deliveries could look like this year. Instead, relating to its volume expectations, Tesla simply said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在季度更新的展望部分，公司显著地没有提供 2026 年汽车交付的指导，令投资者对今年的交付情况产生疑问。相反，特斯拉仅表示与其交付量预期相关：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>We are focused on maximum capacity utilization at our factories. Deliveries and deployments will be impacted by aggregate demand for our products, supply chain readiness and allocation decisions between sale to customers or use for our owned and operated fleet.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>我们专注于最大化工厂的产能利用率。交付和部署将受到我们产品的总需求、供应链准备情况以及客户销售或自有车队使用之间的分配决策的影响。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Finally, it's worth noting that Tesla's free cash flow is moving in the wrong direction, too. Its fourth-quarter free cash flow was about $1.4 billion, down 30% year over year. And free cash flow will likely remain suppressed throughout 2026, because the company plans to invest heavily in artificial intelligence compute infrastructure and manufacturing. Management forecast 2026 capital expenditures to exceed $20 billion -- more than double its capital expenditures of approximately $8.5 billion in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，值得注意的是，特斯拉的自由现金流也在朝着错误的方向发展。其第四季度的自由现金流约为 14 亿美元，同比下降 30%。由于公司计划在人工智能计算基础设施和制造方面进行大量投资，自由现金流在 2026 年可能会持续受到抑制。管理层预测 2026 年的资本支出将超过 200 亿美元，是 2025 年约 85 亿美元资本支出的两倍多。</p>
</div><p>Expand</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展开</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vYXJ0L2NvbXBhbnlsb2dvcy9tYXJrL1RTTEEucG5nJnc9MTI4" alt="Tesla Stock Quote" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Fart%2Fcompanylogos%2Fmark%2FTSLA.png&amp;w=128&amp;op=resize"/></p>
<h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>NASDAQ: TSLA</h2>
</div><p>Tesla</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉</p>
</div><p>Today's Change</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今日变动</p>
</div><p>(-3.45%) $-14.90</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>(-3.45%) $-14.90</p>
</div><p>Current Price</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格</p>
</div><p>$416.56</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$416.56</p>
</div><h3>Key Data Points</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>关键数据点</h3>
</div><p>Market Cap</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市值</p>
</div><p>$1.4T</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$1.4 万亿</p>
</div><p>Day's Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日内区间</p>
</div><p>$414.62 - $440.23</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$414.62 - $440.23</p>
</div><p>52wk Range</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>52 周区间</p>
</div><p>$214.25 - $498.83</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$214.25 - $498.83</p>
</div><p>Volume</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成交量</p>
</div><p>82M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>8200 万</p>
</div><p>Avg Vol</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均成交量</p>
</div><p>74M</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>7400 万</p>
</div><p>Gross Margin</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毛利率</p>
</div><p>18.03%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>18.03%</p>
</div><p>All of this means that Tesla stock is highly dependent on the performance of its newer initiatives, namely Robotaxi, the upcoming Cybercab, and its plan for humanoid robots. Of course, Tesla's energy storage business continues to perform nicely, with 14.2 gigawatt-hours of storage deployed in Q4 -- up 29% year over year. So, energy storage sales should contribute nicely to the company's growth over time as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些意味着，特斯拉的股票高度依赖于其新举措的表现，即 Robotaxi、即将推出的网络出租车以及人形机器人的计划。当然，特斯拉的能源存储业务继续表现良好，第四季度部署了 14.2 吉瓦时的存储，同比增长 29%。因此，能源存储销售也应该为公司的长期增长做出良好贡献。</p>
</div><p>But with near-term headwinds in its financials and big spending required for these newer initiatives, I'd be hesitant to buy Tesla stock at its current price -- even with these exciting initiatives on the horizon. Shares currently command an extremely high valuation, as evidenced by their price-to-earnings ratioof about 389 as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由于财务状况面临短期阻力，并且这些新举措需要大量支出，我对在当前价格买入特斯拉股票持谨慎态度——即使这些令人兴奋的举措即将到来。当前股价的估值极高，正如其 市盈率 所示，截至目前约为 389。</p>
</div><p>Given Tesla's extraordinarily high valuation, the market has arguably already priced in a successful rollout of Robotaxi, continued rapid growth in high-margin software revenue, and an eventual return to growth in its autos business. With this in mind, I think staying on the sidelines for now makes sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于特斯拉的估值极高，市场可以说已经将 Robotaxi 的成功推出、高利润软件收入的持续快速增长以及其汽车业务的最终复苏的预期价格纳入了考虑。考虑到这一点，我认为目前保持观望是明智的选择。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Dips as Investors Weigh Its Fourth-Quarter Results: Is This a Buying Opportunity?

- 特斯拉发布第四季度财报后股价波动，月内下跌超 11%。  
- 公司活跃的自动驾驶订阅增长 38%，但汽车收入同比下降 11%。  
- 投资者面临短期挑战，需对公司新计划的执行保持谨慎。

特斯拉股价下跌，投资者在权衡其第四季度业绩：这是否是一个买入机会？