<p>（这里表达的观点是作者的观点，他是路透社的专栏作家。）</p>
<p>作者：加文·麦奎尔</p>
<p>科罗拉多州小顿，1 月 30 日（路透社）——在北美和欧洲争相建立 21 世纪商业所需的数据中心时，许多新兴市场仍然依赖于 20 世纪的产品，如钢铁、水泥和塑料，以创造就业和推动经济增长。</p>
<p>这种差异也在分裂能源转型的轨迹。</p>
<p>在美国和欧洲，争夺人工智能和数据处理的领先地位正在彻底改革电力系统，以更可靠地提供更多电能。</p>
<p>与此同时，许多亚洲、非洲和中东的经济体仍然依赖于耗能巨大的重工业，主要用于生产原材料和消费品。这意味着化石燃料，特别是煤炭，可能在能源系统中保持中心地位的时间远比西方政策制定者所假设的要长。</p>
<h3>碳重型</h3>
<p>虽然欧洲和美国的经济最初是由原材料和重工业驱动的，但数十年的外包导致了大量烟囱生产能力转移到其他地区。</p>
<p>自 1990 年代以来，中国已成为金属、水泥、化学品、陶瓷和玻璃新产能建设的主要地点，并将这些原材料用于发展其世界领先的制造业。</p>
<p>然而，包括越南、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚、埃及、土耳其和印度在内的许多其他新兴市场也在尝试遵循类似的发展蓝图，现在也成为各种原材料的主要生产国。</p>
<p>事实上，全球钢铁和化学品生产能力的四分之三位于亚洲、非洲、中东和拉丁美洲，全球能源监测组织（GEM）的数据显示。</p>
<p>在水泥和熟料的产能方面——混凝土的重要成分——全球约 85% 的产能位于北美和欧洲以外。</p>
<p>亚洲、非洲和中东的经济体也在主导新钢铁、水泥和化学品的建设，占在建产能的近 90%。</p>
<h3>被动受众</h3>
<p>这些国家不仅是生产原材料的更便宜地方。它们也是水泥、钢铁、塑料及相关产品增长最快的消费市场之一。</p>
<p>低运营成本和不断上升的国内消费的结合，进一步巩固了在当地建立这些材料生产能力的合理性。</p>
<p>与卡车运输队、储存运营商和加工设施相关的供应链的建设创造了额外的经济价值和就业机会，进一步提升了它们在当地经济中的重要性。</p>
<p>再加上发展一个能够将这些材料升级为更昂贵消费品的制造业的潜力，可以理解为什么如此多国家的政策支持基础材料产业。</p>
<h3>能源消耗者</h3>
<p>然而，对原材料和关键中间产品的深度依赖也塑造了旨在维持这些产业生存的国家电力系统。</p>
<p>生产水泥、钢铁和化学品的过程 notoriously 耗能，生产商需要充足、廉价的电力以保持竞争力。</p>
<p>许多这些材料也容易进口，这使得当地生产商容易受到外国竞争对手的冲击。</p>
<p>这反过来又迫使地方当局确保运营成本尽可能低——尤其是能源成本——并制定有利于生产商的政策。</p>
<p>在快速增长、对成本敏感的经济体中，能源系统成为工业政策。</p>
<p>如今，东南亚的大部分地区以及北非和中非的部分地区依赖煤炭作为其工业电力供应的主要来源。</p>
<p>为了支持和维持这种对煤炭的依赖，通常会开发广泛的采矿、进口和储存设施，而燃煤电力往往是这些经济体迅速提升能源供应的最快方式。</p>
<p>扩大燃煤电力输出的努力可能与更发达地区的趋势相悖，并可能逆转去碳化能源系统的努力。</p>
<p>但只要水泥和钢铁等基础材料支付大部分账单并雇佣大量劳动力，生产国可能就没有奢侈的空间来加速能源转型的努力，而不破坏更广泛的经济。{这里表达的观点是作者的观点，他是路透社的专栏作家。} 享受这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），您获取全球金融评论的必备新来源。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。并在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社应用上收听《晨间投标》每日播客。订阅以听取路透社记者讨论市场和金融领域的重大新闻，每周七天。</p>
<p>按地区划分的全球钢铁、化学品和水泥产能</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3M3naqa?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1761" height="666" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3M3naqa"/></p>
<p>按运营中的水泥和钢铁产能排名前 20 的国家</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4q7tN8R?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1802" height="761" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4q7tN8R"/></p>
<p>按在建水泥和钢铁产能排名前 20 的国家</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4k9W1Pi?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1813" height="774" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4k9W1Pi"/></p>

<p>这篇文章讨论了新兴市场在实现经济脱碳方面面临的挑战，因为它们仍然依赖于钢铁、水泥和塑料等能源密集型产业。尽管北美和欧洲在人工智能和数据处理方面取得了进展，但亚洲、非洲和中东的许多国家仍然依赖化石燃料，特别是煤炭，以推动经济增长。这种对原材料的依赖使得向更清洁能源转型的努力变得复杂，因为当地经济优先考虑低能源成本以支持其工业部门</p>

<p>(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（这里表达的观点是作者的观点，他是路透社的专栏作家。）</p>
</div><p>By Gavin Maguire</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：加文·麦奎尔</p>
</div><p>LITTLETON, Colorado, Jan 30 (Reuters) - While North America and Europe scramble to build the data centers needed to run 21st-century businesses, many emerging markets remain anchored to 20th-century products like steel, cement and plastics for job creation and economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科罗拉多州小顿，1 月 30 日（路透社）——在北美和欧洲争相建立 21 世纪商业所需的数据中心时，许多新兴市场仍然依赖于 20 世纪的产品，如钢铁、水泥和塑料，以创造就业和推动经济增长。</p>
</div><p>That divergence is splitting energy transition trajectories, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种差异也在分裂能源转型的轨迹。</p>
</div><p>In the U.S. and Europe, the race to lead in artificial intelligence and data processing is overhauling power systems to deliver more electrons, more reliably.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国和欧洲，争夺人工智能和数据处理的领先地位正在彻底改革电力系统，以更可靠地提供更多电能。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, many economies in Asia, Africa and the Middle East remain tied to power-hungry heavy industry, mainly to churn out raw materials and consumer goods. That means fossil fuels - particularly coal - may retain a central role within energy systems for far longer than policymakers in the West assume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，许多亚洲、非洲和中东的经济体仍然依赖于耗能巨大的重工业，主要用于生产原材料和消费品。这意味着化石燃料，特别是煤炭，可能在能源系统中保持中心地位的时间远比西方政策制定者所假设的要长。</p>
</div><h3>CARBON-HEAVY</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>碳重型</h3>
</div><p>While the economies of Europe and the U.S. were initially powered by raw materials and heavy industry, decades of offshoring have resulted in the transfer of much of that smokestack production capacity to other regions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然欧洲和美国的经济最初是由原材料和重工业驱动的，但数十年的外包导致了大量烟囱生产能力转移到其他地区。</p>
</div><p>Since the 1990s, China has been the primary location for the build-out of new capacity for the production of metals, cement, chemicals, ceramics and glass, and has in turn deployed those raw materials to develop its world-leading manufacturing sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 1990 年代以来，中国已成为金属、水泥、化学品、陶瓷和玻璃新产能建设的主要地点，并将这些原材料用于发展其世界领先的制造业。</p>
</div><p>However, scores of other emerging markets including Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey and India have or are attempting to follow similar development blueprints, and are now also major producers of various raw materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，包括越南、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚、埃及、土耳其和印度在内的许多其他新兴市场也在尝试遵循类似的发展蓝图，现在也成为各种原材料的主要生产国。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, three-quarters of global production capacity of steel and chemicals is located in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America, data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，全球钢铁和化学品生产能力的四分之三位于亚洲、非洲、中东和拉丁美洲，全球能源监测组织（GEM）的数据显示。</p>
</div><p>When it comes to the capacity footprint for cement and clinker - the vital ingredients in concrete - around 85% of global capacity is outside of North America and Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在水泥和熟料的产能方面——混凝土的重要成分——全球约 85% 的产能位于北美和欧洲以外。</p>
</div><p>Economies across Asia, Africa and the Middle East are also leading the build-out of new steel, cement and chemicals, accounting for nearly 90% of capacity under construction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚洲、非洲和中东的经济体也在主导新钢铁、水泥和化学品的建设，占在建产能的近 90%。</p>
</div><h3>CAPTIVE AUDIENCE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>被动受众</h3>
</div><p>These countries are not just cheaper places to produce raw materials. They are also some of the fastest-growing consumers of cement, steel, plastics and related products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些国家不仅是生产原材料的更便宜地方。它们也是水泥、钢铁、塑料及相关产品增长最快的消费市场之一。</p>
</div><p>That combination of low operating costs and rising domestic consumption has helped reinforce the rationale for building up production capacity of those materials locally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>低运营成本和不断上升的国内消费的结合，进一步巩固了在当地建立这些材料生产能力的合理性。</p>
</div><p>The build-out of the associated supply chains across trucking fleets, storage operators and processing facilities has created additional economic value and jobs, which further elevates their importance within local economies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与卡车运输队、储存运营商和加工设施相关的供应链的建设创造了额外的经济价值和就业机会，进一步提升了它们在当地经济中的重要性。</p>
</div><p>Throw in the potential for developing a manufacturing sector that can upscale those materials into pricier consumer goods and it is understandable why so many countries have policies that support basic materials industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>再加上发展一个能够将这些材料升级为更昂贵消费品的制造业的潜力，可以理解为什么如此多国家的政策支持基础材料产业。</p>
</div><h3>ENERGY HOGS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>能源消耗者</h3>
</div><p>However, such a deep dependence on raw materials for jobs and key intermediate products also shapes national power systems designed to keep these industries alive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对原材料和关键中间产品的深度依赖也塑造了旨在维持这些产业生存的国家电力系统。</p>
</div><p>Making cement, steel and chemicals is notoriously energy-intensive, and producers need abundant, cheap power to stay competitive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生产水泥、钢铁和化学品的过程 notoriously 耗能，生产商需要充足、廉价的电力以保持竞争力。</p>
</div><p>Many of these materials are also easily imported, which leaves local producers vulnerable to being undercut by foreign rivals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多这些材料也容易进口，这使得当地生产商容易受到外国竞争对手的冲击。</p>
</div><p>That in turn pressures local authorities to ensure that operating costs remain as low as possible - especially energy costs - and to shape policy in producers’ favor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这反过来又迫使地方当局确保运营成本尽可能低——尤其是能源成本——并制定有利于生产商的政策。</p>
</div><p>In fast-growing, cost-sensitive economies, the energy system becomes industrial policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在快速增长、对成本敏感的经济体中，能源系统成为工业政策。</p>
</div><p>Today, much of Southeast Asia as well as parts of North and Central Africa rely on coal for much of their industrial power supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，东南亚的大部分地区以及北非和中非的部分地区依赖煤炭作为其工业电力供应的主要来源。</p>
</div><p>Extensive mining, import and storage facilities have often been developed to support and sustain that coal dependence, and coal-fired power is often among the quickest ways for those economies to ratchet up energy supplies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了支持和维持这种对煤炭的依赖，通常会开发广泛的采矿、进口和储存设施，而燃煤电力往往是这些经济体迅速提升能源供应的最快方式。</p>
</div><p>Pushes to expand coal-fired power output may be at odds with the trends seen in more developed regions, and may reverse efforts to decarbonize energy systems.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>扩大燃煤电力输出的努力可能与更发达地区的趋势相悖，并可能逆转去碳化能源系统的努力。</p>
</div><p>But as long as basic materials like cement and steel pay most of the bills and employ large workforces, producer countries may not have the luxury to accelerate energy transition efforts without upending the broader economy. {The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.} Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, and X. And listen to the Morning Bid daily podcast on Apple, Spotify, or the Reuters app. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但只要水泥和钢铁等基础材料支付大部分账单并雇佣大量劳动力，生产国可能就没有奢侈的空间来加速能源转型的努力，而不破坏更广泛的经济。{这里表达的观点是作者的观点，他是路透社的专栏作家。} 享受这篇专栏吗？请查看路透社开放兴趣（ROI），您获取全球金融评论的必备新来源。在 LinkedIn 和 X 上关注 ROI。并在 Apple、Spotify 或路透社应用上收听《晨间投标》每日播客。订阅以听取路透社记者讨论市场和金融领域的重大新闻，每周七天。</p>
</div><p>Global steel, chemicals and cement capacity by region</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按地区划分的全球钢铁、化学品和水泥产能</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3M3naqa" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3M3naqa"/></p>
<p>Top 20 countries by cement and steel capacity in operation</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按运营中的水泥和钢铁产能排名前 20 的国家</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4q7tN8R" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4q7tN8R"/></p>
<p>Top 20 countries by cement and steel capacity under construction</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按在建水泥和钢铁产能排名前 20 的国家</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4k9W1Pi" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4k9W1Pi"/></p>

旧经济的投资回报率需求可能会阻碍新兴市场的去碳化：Maguire