<p>[北京] 人民币在超过十年的时间里迎来了最长的周涨势，预计在春节前，随着出口商对该货币需求的增加，人民币将进一步升值。</p>
<p>中国国际金融公司首席外汇分析师李柳扬表示，企业通常会在国家假期前加大美元兑换人民币的力度，他预测人民币将在 2 月份的假期前继续上涨。法国农业信贷银行和马来亚银行也提供了类似的预测，人民币在岸对美元将连续 10 周上涨，这是自 2013 年以来最长的连胜纪录。</p>
<p>这为已经受到贸易顺差、对国内股票的新兴趣以及进一步刺激措施前景支持的乐观前景增添了助力。全球市场的不确定性和对去美元化的讨论升温也提振了该货币。美国财政部在周四的一份报告中将人民币称为 “显著低估”，并呼吁中国及时有序地允许其汇率升值。</p>
<p>李表示：“在春节前，人民币相对美元的强势可能会持续。关键是要关注变动的速度。”</p>
<p>中国公司在春节前加大外汇兑换回人民币的力度，主要是为了支付奖金和资助与假期相关的开支。这一激增也受到春节期间人民币升值预期的影响。</p>
<p>在 12 月底，人民币在岸和离岸市场均突破了备受关注的 7 美元兑 1 人民币的关口。周五，在岸人民币稳定在每美元约 6.95 的水平。</p>
<p>新加坡梅尔银行的高级策略师 Fiona Lim 表示：“在春节假期前，测试 6.90 的水平是不可排除的。如果美元没有剧烈上涨，美元/人民币在春节前可能会保持下行偏向。”</p>
<p>春节后，人民币的前景可能会显得不那么确定。自 11 月底以来，中国人民银行通过将每日参考汇率设定为低于市场预期来抑制人民币的涨幅，尽管本周在美元走弱的情况下设定了更强的汇率。人民币的升值正在考验北京对强势的容忍度，引发了对出口竞争力的担忧。</p>
<p>汇丰控股全球外汇研究负责人 Paul Mackel 表示：“随着春节的临近，人民币升值的速度可能会放缓，因为可以假设在假期期间在岸交易活动自然会开始减弱。”</p>
<p>尽管如此，包括 Eurizon SLJ Capital 和 Macquarie Group 的分析师在内，仍预计人民币将在全年内上涨。</p>
<p>Mackel 表示：“似乎有政策倾向于延续升值。最终我们认为这应该是一个渐进的故事。” BLOOMBERG</p>

招商局中国基金

<p>人民币预计将继续其十年来的上涨趋势，因为在春节前出口商的需求增加。分析师预测，人民币将在贸易顺差和对国内股票的新兴趣的支持下对美元走强。这种货币已经连续十周上涨，预计在假期期间将进一步升值。然而，由于中国人民银行的干预，假期后涨幅可能会放缓。总体而言，分析师对人民币在全年内持乐观态度</p>

<p>[BEIJING] The Chinese yuan, riding its longest weekly rally in more than a decade, is expected to strengthen further as exporters boost demand for the currency ahead of the Lunar New Year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[北京] 人民币在超过十年的时间里迎来了最长的周涨势，预计在春节前，随着出口商对该货币需求的增加，人民币将进一步升值。</p>
</div><p>Companies typically step up dollar‑to‑yuan conversions before the country’s holiday season, said Li Liuyang, chief foreign‑exchange analyst at China International Capital Corp, who forecasts a continued climb into the February break. Crédit Agricole CIB and Malayan Banking offered similar projections, as the yuan is poised to advance against the dollar onshore for 10 consecutive weeks – its longest winning streak since 2013.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国国际金融公司首席外汇分析师李柳扬表示，企业通常会在国家假期前加大美元兑换人民币的力度，他预测人民币将在 2 月份的假期前继续上涨。法国农业信贷银行和马来亚银行也提供了类似的预测，人民币在岸对美元将连续 10 周上涨，这是自 2013 年以来最长的连胜纪录。</p>
</div><p>That’s adding tailwinds to an already supportive outlook backed by a trade surplus, renewed interest in domestic stocks, and the prospect of further stimulus. Global market uncertainty and rising talk of dedollarisation have also buoyed the currency. In a report on Thursday, the US Treasury characterised the yuan as “substantially undervalued,” and called on China to allow its exchange rate to strengthen in a timely and orderly way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这为已经受到贸易顺差、对国内股票的新兴趣以及进一步刺激措施前景支持的乐观前景增添了助力。全球市场的不确定性和对去美元化的讨论升温也提振了该货币。美国财政部在周四的一份报告中将人民币称为 “显著低估”，并呼吁中国及时有序地允许其汇率升值。</p>
</div><p>“The yuan’s relative strength against the dollar is likely to sustain ahead of the Lunar New Year,” Li said. “The key is to watch the pace” of moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>李表示：“在春节前，人民币相对美元的强势可能会持续。关键是要关注变动的速度。”</p>
</div><p>Chinese companies ramp up foreign-exchange conversions back to yuan before the Lunar New Year mainly to pay bonuses and fund holiday-related expenses. This surge is also influenced by expectations of yuan appreciation during China’s busiest spending season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国公司在春节前加大外汇兑换回人民币的力度，主要是为了支付奖金和资助与假期相关的开支。这一激增也受到春节期间人民币升值预期的影响。</p>
</div><p>In late December, the yuan broke the closely watched 7‑per‑dollar threshold in both the onshore and offshore markets. The onshore yuan held steady at around 6.95 per dollar on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 月底，人民币在岸和离岸市场均突破了备受关注的 7 美元兑 1 人民币的关口。周五，在岸人民币稳定在每美元约 6.95 的水平。</p>
</div><p>“A test of the 6.90-figure cannot be ruled out, which is possible ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday,” said Fiona Lim, senior strategist at Maybank in Singapore. “USD/CNY could keep a downside bias in the lead-up to the Lunar New Year, barring a dramatic upswing in the USD.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡梅尔银行的高级策略师 Fiona Lim 表示：“在春节假期前，测试 6.90 的水平是不可排除的。如果美元没有剧烈上涨，美元/人民币在春节前可能会保持下行偏向。”</p>
</div><p>The yuan’s outlook may look less certain after the Lunar New Year. The People’s Bank of China has tempered gains by setting its daily reference rate weaker than market expectations since late November, though it fixed a stronger rate this week as the dollar weakened. The currency’s appreciation is testing Beijing’s tolerance for strength, raising concerns over export competitiveness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>春节后，人民币的前景可能会显得不那么确定。自 11 月底以来，中国人民银行通过将每日参考汇率设定为低于市场预期来抑制人民币的涨幅，尽管本周在美元走弱的情况下设定了更强的汇率。人民币的升值正在考验北京对强势的容忍度，引发了对出口竞争力的担忧。</p>
</div><p>“The pace of yuan gains may slow as we get closer to the Lunar New Year period because you’d have to assume that the onshore trading activity would just naturally begin to moderate because of the holiday period,” said Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC Holdings in Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>汇丰控股全球外汇研究负责人 Paul Mackel 表示：“随着春节的临近，人民币升值的速度可能会放缓，因为可以假设在假期期间在岸交易活动自然会开始减弱。”</p>
</div><p>Still, analysts, including those at Eurizon SLJ Capital and Macquarie Group, expect the yuan to gain through the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，包括 Eurizon SLJ Capital 和 Macquarie Group 的分析师在内，仍预计人民币将在全年内上涨。</p>
</div><p>“There seems to be a policy preference for extending appreciation,” Mackel said. “Ultimately we think it should be a gradual story.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Mackel 表示：“似乎有政策倾向于延续升值。最终我们认为这应该是一个渐进的故事。” BLOOMBERG</p>
</div>

人民币有望在农历新年期间继续其长达十年的连胜纪录