<p>[香港] 香港疲软的房地产市场正在复苏，这是该市在经历多年低迷后走向复苏的最新迹象。</p>
<p>政府数据显示，2025 年房价上涨了 3.25%，这是四年来的首次年度增长。包括花旗集团和摩根士丹利在内的华尔街银行预测，今年房价将进一步上涨，为该市负债累累的开发商带来希望。</p>
<p>复苏进一步证明金融中心的前景正在好转，预计股市将迎来又一个融资大年。国际公司正在考虑在该市开设新分支。餐厅和酒店看到游客因大型活动和演出而回归，而酒吧场景也赢得了赞誉。</p>
<p>来自中国大陆的购房者在该市的支出创下纪录，帮助开发商清理库存。降息正在推动抵押贷款需求。租金上涨促使居民购房。股市反弹激发了对豪华物业的兴趣。</p>
<p>这一切都为开发商带来了缓解，尽管他们仍在与商业房地产市场的疲软作斗争。近年来，开发商被迫以大幅折扣出售住宅项目，并在某些情况下向银行提出最后时刻的请求以延长债务。</p>
<p>“住宅市场最糟糕的时期已经过去，” DBS 集团控股的房地产分析师 Jeff Yau 表示。“随着供需动态的改善，住宅开发商正在重新获得定价权。”</p>
<p>在情绪变化的迹象中，新世界发展公司——几个月前还陷入生死攸关的债务延期中——今年股价上涨了 59%，债券也从困境中反弹。知情人士透露，黑石集团正在与该开发商进行高级谈判，成为其最大股东，这一举动将为这家负债累累的公司带来期待已久的流动性。彭博情报对香港开发商估值的指标较一年前上涨了 58%。</p>
<p>Yau 表示，近期项目的良好反响将有助于为开发商创造现金流并减少债务。</p>
<p>一些顶级开发商已经开始考虑提高现有项目的价格。在新鸿基地产的 Sierra Sea 开发项目中，最新阶段的房屋平均售价为每平方英尺 11,649 港元（约合 1,890.54 新元），比去年四月的价格高出约 12%。远东发展国际的执行董事 Jennifer Chiu 在 12 月表示，Pavilia Forest 项目现在有空间提高价格，该项目是与新世界的合资企业，单位曾以亏损出售。</p>
<p>香港金融管理局去年三次降息，跟随美国联邦储备的降息步伐，减轻了开发商和购房者的贷款压力。</p>
<p>“随着利率的下降，这对开发商是有利的，” JLL 香港的主席 Joseph Tsang 表示。“因为他们的贷款支付也会减少，他们不需要急于以大幅折扣出售，这有助于稳定市场整体资产价格。”</p>
<p>银行和房地产服务公司预计今年住宅价格将增长，其中摩根士丹利最为乐观，预测将上涨 10%。包括仲量联行和高纬物业在内的咨询公司预计涨幅在 5% 范围内。</p>
<h2>大陆需求</h2>
<p>来自中国大陆的买家已成为清理金融中心住房库存的关键力量，2025 年支出创下 1380 亿港元的纪录。报告显示，他们在豪华市场中最为显著，占价值超过 5000 万港元物业买家的约 70%。</p>
<p>高端市场正在升温，自去年底以来，从太古地产到恒基兆业的开发商纷纷进行销售，成为头条新闻。</p>
<p>然而，也有谨慎的理由。香港在中美竞争的关键地位偶尔会给银行家带来麻烦。美联储的降息速度放缓，可能会减缓香港的宽松步伐，从而影响复苏。</p>
<p>野村控股在 12 月的报告中表示，缺乏中国经济和与美国关系的实质性改善，近期房地产市场缺乏重大反弹的催化剂。</p>
<h2>办公室过剩</h2>
<p>商业房地产领域的复苏也显得不稳定。投资者主要关注中环和铜锣湾等核心商业区的优质资产，而其他地区的办公楼则在寻找租户方面面临困难。根据 Colliers International 的报告，去年香港甲级办公楼的空置率上升至 17.5%，租金下降约 5.8%。</p>
<p>资金充裕的金融和科技公司正在利用较低的租金和资产价格在香港扩展办公室。包括 Point72 资产管理、Jane Street Group 和 Qube Research &amp; Technologies 在内的对冲基金最近签署了大型办公交易，而阿里巴巴集团和京东等中国电子商务公司则收购了办公楼。</p>
<p>“在过去两个月中，我们收到了大约 20 个来自大陆公司的香港办公资产询问，” 高纬物业中国资本市场副董事总经理 Charli Chan 表示。她领导团队促成了阿里巴巴及其蚂蚁集团在 10 月的办公空间收购。</p>
<p>“他们中的许多人正在寻找可以容纳未来三到五年业务扩展的空间，” Chan 表示。</p>
<p>根据 Colliers 的报告，2025 年超过 1 亿港元的商业房地产交易增长超过 12%，这是自 2021 年以来的首次增长。除了办公楼，学生宿舍成为吸引投资者的少数亮点，因为政府放宽了将商业建筑改建为宿舍的规定。</p>
<p>商业交易主要由最终用户支持，而国际基金则大多处于观望状态。在看到私募股权公司难以偿还贷款或失去资产后，银行已收紧了对这些投资者的信贷额度。</p>
<p>“银行对商业房地产项目的贷款仍然持谨慎态度，” Colliers 香港资本市场与投资服务负责人 Thomas Chak 表示。“贷方需要时间来处理不良贷款，才能再次感到舒适地提供更多贷款。”</p>
<p>尽管如此，在一个房价是经济健康晴雨表且是信心重要来源的城市，情况终于有所好转。</p>
<p>租金上涨也促使购房者加快购买步伐。由于政府的人才计划吸引了大量移民，去年住宅租金创下历史新高。自 2023 年以来，香港通过该计划迎来了超过 23 万名新移民。</p>
<p>“与租房相比，拥有房产的吸引力越来越大，” 恒基地产销售总经理 Mark Hahn 表示。“存款利率下降也促使投资者将资金转向房地产。” BLOOMBERG</p>

恒生指数

<p>香港的房地产市场正在复苏，预计 2025 年房价上涨 3.25%，这是四年来的首次年度增长。华尔街银行预测，由于来自中国大陆买家的需求以及利率下调刺激抵押贷款需求，房价将进一步上涨。开发商正在恢复定价权，部分开发商已经提高了现有项目的价格。然而，商业房地产市场依然疲软，鉴于地缘政治紧张局势和美国可能的经济放缓，建议保持谨慎。总体而言，银行预计今年住宅价格将增长，预测范围在 5% 到 10% 之间</p>

<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong’s beleaguered housing market is staging a comeback, the latest sign that the city is on the road to recovery following years of gloom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[香港] 香港疲软的房地产市场正在复苏，这是该市在经历多年低迷后走向复苏的最新迹象。</p>
</div><p>Home prices rose 3.25 per cent in 2025, the first annual increase in four years, government figures showed this week. Wall Street banks including Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are predicting values will jump further this year, offering hope for the city’s debt-laden developers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府数据显示，2025 年房价上涨了 3.25%，这是四年来的首次年度增长。包括花旗集团和摩根士丹利在内的华尔街银行预测，今年房价将进一步上涨，为该市负债累累的开发商带来希望。</p>
</div><p>The revival adds to mounting evidence that things are looking up in the financial hub, underpinned by expectations for another blockbuster year of fundraising in the booming stock market. International firms are looking to open new branches in the city. Restaurants and hotels are seeing tourists returning for mega-events and shows, while the bar scene is winning acclaim.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>复苏进一步证明金融中心的前景正在好转，预计股市将迎来又一个融资大年。国际公司正在考虑在该市开设新分支。餐厅和酒店看到游客因大型活动和演出而回归，而酒吧场景也赢得了赞誉。</p>
</div><p>Mainland Chinese homebuyers have spent a record amount in the city, helping builders to clear inventory. Interest-rate cuts are boosting mortgage demand. Rising rents are pushing residents to purchase homes. The stock market rally is spurring interest in luxury properties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自中国大陆的购房者在该市的支出创下纪录，帮助开发商清理库存。降息正在推动抵押贷款需求。租金上涨促使居民购房。股市反弹激发了对豪华物业的兴趣。</p>
</div><p>That is all giving relief to developers, even as they continue to struggle with a commercial real estate market that remains a weak spot in the city. Builders have in recent years been forced to offload residential projects at steep discounts and, in some cases, made last-minute pleas to their banks to extend debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一切都为开发商带来了缓解，尽管他们仍在与商业房地产市场的疲软作斗争。近年来，开发商被迫以大幅折扣出售住宅项目，并在某些情况下向银行提出最后时刻的请求以延长债务。</p>
</div><p>“The worst for the residential market is over,” said Jeff Yau, a property analyst at DBS Group Holdings “With improving supply and demand dynamics, residential developers are regaining pricing power.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“住宅市场最糟糕的时期已经过去，” DBS 集团控股的房地产分析师 Jeff Yau 表示。“随着供需动态的改善，住宅开发商正在重新获得定价权。”</p>
</div><p>In a sign of the changing mood, New World Development – which just a few months ago was mired in a make-or-break debt extension – has seen its stock jump 59 per cent this year and its bonds rebound from distressed levels. Blackstone is in advanced talks to become the largest shareholder of the builder, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that would bring long-awaited liquidity to the indebted firm. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Hong Kong developer valuations has climbed 58 per cent from a year ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在情绪变化的迹象中，新世界发展公司——几个月前还陷入生死攸关的债务延期中——今年股价上涨了 59%，债券也从困境中反弹。知情人士透露，黑石集团正在与该开发商进行高级谈判，成为其最大股东，这一举动将为这家负债累累的公司带来期待已久的流动性。彭博情报对香港开发商估值的指标较一年前上涨了 58%。</p>
</div><p>The favourable response to recent projects will help generate cash flow and cut debts for the developers, according to Yau.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Yau 表示，近期项目的良好反响将有助于为开发商创造现金流并减少债务。</p>
</div><p>Some top builders are already looking to hike prices for their existing projects. At Sun Hung Kai Properties’ Sierra Sea development, the latest phase of homes is being sold for an average of HK$11,649 (S$1,890.54) per square foot, about 12 per cent higher than the price seen last April. Far East Consortium International’s executive director Jennifer Chiu said in December that there’s now room to lift prices at the Pavilia Forest, a joint venture with New World where units had been selling at a loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些顶级开发商已经开始考虑提高现有项目的价格。在新鸿基地产的 Sierra Sea 开发项目中，最新阶段的房屋平均售价为每平方英尺 11,649 港元（约合 1,890.54 新元），比去年四月的价格高出约 12%。远东发展国际的执行董事 Jennifer Chiu 在 12 月表示，Pavilia Forest 项目现在有空间提高价格，该项目是与新世界的合资企业，单位曾以亏损出售。</p>
</div><p>The Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered interest rates three times last year, in line with the US Federal Reserve’s cuts, reducing loan payment pressures for builders and homebuyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>香港金融管理局去年三次降息，跟随美国联邦储备的降息步伐，减轻了开发商和购房者的贷款压力。</p>
</div><p>“With the interest rate coming down, it’s beneficial to the developers,” said Joseph Tsang, chairman of JLL Hong Kong. “Because their loan payments will also go down, they don’t need to rush to sell with huge discounts, and that can help to stabilise overall asset prices in the market.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“随着利率的下降，这对开发商是有利的，” JLL 香港的主席 Joseph Tsang 表示。“因为他们的贷款支付也会减少，他们不需要急于以大幅折扣出售，这有助于稳定市场整体资产价格。”</p>
</div><p>Banks and property services firms are expecting growth in residential prices this year, with Morgan Stanley among the most bullish, projecting a 10 per cent jump. Consultancies including Jones Lang LaSalle and Cushman &amp; Wakefield see increases within a 5 per cent range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银行和房地产服务公司预计今年住宅价格将增长，其中摩根士丹利最为乐观，预测将上涨 10%。包括仲量联行和高纬物业在内的咨询公司预计涨幅在 5% 范围内。</p>
</div><h2>Mainland demand</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大陆需求</h2>
</div><p>Buyers from mainland China have become a key force for clearing housing inventory in the financial hub, spending a record HK$138 billion in 2025, according to Midland Realty. They were most prominent in the luxury market, making up about 70 per cent of buyers of properties valued at more than HK$50 million, the report showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来自中国大陆的买家已成为清理金融中心住房库存的关键力量，2025 年支出创下 1380 亿港元的纪录。报告显示，他们在豪华市场中最为显著，占价值超过 5000 万港元物业买家的约 70%。</p>
</div><p>The high-end sector has been heating up, with a flurry of sales by developers from Swire Properties to Henderson Land Development grabbing headlines since late last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高端市场正在升温，自去年底以来，从太古地产到恒基兆业的开发商纷纷进行销售，成为头条新闻。</p>
</div><p>There are reasons for caution, however. Hong Kong’s crucial place on the faultlines of competition between China and the US has occasionally caused headaches for bankers in the city. Slower rate cuts by the Fed, which would slow the pace of easing in Hong Kong, could also crimp the recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，也有谨慎的理由。香港在中美竞争的关键地位偶尔会给银行家带来麻烦。美联储的降息速度放缓，可能会减缓香港的宽松步伐，从而影响复苏。</p>
</div><p>There are limited catalysts for any major rebound in the property market in the near term in the absence of material improvements in China’s economy and relations with the US, Nomura Holdings said in a December report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村控股在 12 月的报告中表示，缺乏中国经济和与美国关系的实质性改善，近期房地产市场缺乏重大反弹的催化剂。</p>
</div><h2>Office glut</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>办公室过剩</h2>
</div><p>The recovery in the commercial real estate sector is also looking patchy. Investors are mostly focused on trophy assets in core business districts like Central and Causeway Bay, while office towers in other areas are struggling to find tenants. The vacancy rate for Grade A offices in the city edged up to 17.5 per cent last year, and rent fell by about 5.8 per cent, according to a report by Colliers International.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商业房地产领域的复苏也显得不稳定。投资者主要关注中环和铜锣湾等核心商业区的优质资产，而其他地区的办公楼则在寻找租户方面面临困难。根据 Colliers International 的报告，去年香港甲级办公楼的空置率上升至 17.5%，租金下降约 5.8%。</p>
</div><p>Cash-rich financial and tech firms are taking advantage of cheaper rents and lower asset prices to expand their offices in Hong Kong. Hedge funds including Point72 Asset Management, Jane Street Group and Qube Research &amp; Technologies signed large office deals in recent months, while Chinese e-commerce companies like Alibaba Group Holding and JD.com snapped up towers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资金充裕的金融和科技公司正在利用较低的租金和资产价格在香港扩展办公室。包括 Point72 资产管理、Jane Street Group 和 Qube Research &amp; Technologies 在内的对冲基金最近签署了大型办公交易，而阿里巴巴集团和京东等中国电子商务公司则收购了办公楼。</p>
</div><p>“We’ve received about 20 inquiries for Hong Kong office assets from mainland companies over the past two months,” said Charli Chan, deputy managing director of China capital markets at Cushman &amp; Wakefield. She led the team to facilitate the office space acquisition by Alibaba and its Ant Group affiliate in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在过去两个月中，我们收到了大约 20 个来自大陆公司的香港办公资产询问，” 高纬物业中国资本市场副董事总经理 Charli Chan 表示。她领导团队促成了阿里巴巴及其蚂蚁集团在 10 月的办公空间收购。</p>
</div><p>“Many of them are looking for space that can accommodate their business expansion in the next three to five years,” Chan said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“他们中的许多人正在寻找可以容纳未来三到五年业务扩展的空间，” Chan 表示。</p>
</div><p>Commercial real estate transactions above HK$100 million rose more than 12 per cent in 2025, the first increase since 2021, according to the Colliers report. Other than offices, student hostels were a rare bright spot attracting investors, after the government relaxed rules on converting commercial buildings into dormitories.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Colliers 的报告，2025 年超过 1 亿港元的商业房地产交易增长超过 12%，这是自 2021 年以来的首次增长。除了办公楼，学生宿舍成为吸引投资者的少数亮点，因为政府放宽了将商业建筑改建为宿舍的规定。</p>
</div><p>Commercial deals are mainly being supported by end users, while international funds remain largely on the sidelines. Banks have been tightening credit lines for such investors after seeing private equity firms struggle to repay loans or forfeit assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商业交易主要由最终用户支持，而国际基金则大多处于观望状态。在看到私募股权公司难以偿还贷款或失去资产后，银行已收紧了对这些投资者的信贷额度。</p>
</div><p>“Banks remain wary of lending to commercial real estate projects,” said Thomas Chak, head of capital markets &amp; investment services at Colliers Hong Kong. “Lenders will take time to deal with their non-performing loans before they feel comfortable lending more again.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“银行对商业房地产项目的贷款仍然持谨慎态度，” Colliers 香港资本市场与投资服务负责人 Thomas Chak 表示。“贷方需要时间来处理不良贷款，才能再次感到舒适地提供更多贷款。”</p>
</div><p>Still, in a city where home prices are a barometre for economic health – and a crucial source of confidence – things are finally looking up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，在一个房价是经济健康晴雨表且是信心重要来源的城市，情况终于有所好转。</p>
</div><p>Rising rents have also prompted homebuyers to expedite purchases. Residential rents hit a record high last year, thanks to a flood of migrants entering the city on the government’s talent programme. Hong Kong has seen more than 230,000 new arrivals via the scheme since 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>租金上涨也促使购房者加快购买步伐。由于政府的人才计划吸引了大量移民，去年住宅租金创下历史新高。自 2023 年以来，香港通过该计划迎来了超过 23 万名新移民。</p>
</div><p>“Home ownership is increasingly attractive compared to renting,” said Mark Hahn, a general manager of sales at Henderson Land. “Falling deposit rates have also prompted investors to shift capital into real estate.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“与租房相比，拥有房产的吸引力越来越大，” 恒基地产销售总经理 Mark Hahn 表示。“存款利率下降也促使投资者将资金转向房地产。” BLOOMBERG</p>
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香港的房地产市场随着城市活力的恢复而反弹