<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/user_content/ckimages/orig_gold%20money.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1105" height="634" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/user_content/ckimages/orig_gold%20money.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<p><strong>市场对媒体报道凯文·沃什今天将被提名接替美联储主席鲍威尔的消息做出了剧烈反应</strong>。一方面，沃什被认为是鹰派，但另一方面，特朗普政府显然希望降低利率。最初的反应是覆盖空头美元头寸，外汇市场出现了剧烈波动。然而，欧洲市场的交易量显示美元放弃了一些涨幅。美国参与者的反应仍在等待中。与此同时，似乎达成了一项协议，至少在接下来的几周内将避免再次关闭联邦政府。</p>
<p><strong>欧元区报告的第四季度 GDP 略好于预期（环比增长 0.3%），一些初步数据表明该地区 1 月份的 CPI 仍低于 2%。</strong> 日本报告的东京 CPI 低于预期，零售销售大幅下滑，工业产出小幅下降。这些数据似乎支持日本银行的谨慎态度。</p>
<h3><strong>价格</strong></h3>
<p>G10</p>
<p>• 在周二的大幅波动后，<strong>欧元</strong> 在连续第二个交易日内维持在当天的区间内（约 1.1850-1.2080）。昨天，欧元未能突破 1.20 或跌破 1.19。关于沃什今天被提名接替美联储主席鲍威尔的猜测加剧，欧元升至 1.1895。虽然有所回稳，但未能大幅回升至 1.1940 以上。明天到期的 6 亿欧元期权在 1.19。还有一项较小但仍然重要的 22 亿欧元期权在 1.1925 到期。</p>
<p>• 昨天，美元对 <strong>日元</strong> 的交易范围是五个交易日中最窄的（约 152.70 日元-153.55 日元）。在 152.00 日元附近似乎形成了一个支撑位。疲软的东京 CPI、令人失望的零售销售和美国收益率的上升使美元今天升至约 154.40 日元。自上周五高点以来，美元下跌的 38.2% 回撤位接近 154.80 日元。日本银行的数据确认 1 月份没有发生实质性干预。</p>
<p>• <strong>英镑</strong> 跌破周三的低点，但在跌破 1.3745 美元时出现了新的买盘。昨天，英镑在北美下午几乎达到了 1.3810 美元。今天，英镑在美元反弹中被卖至 1.3725 美元。初步下行风险可能延伸至 1.3690-1.3700 美元。今天到期的 5.22 亿英镑期权在 1.3800 美元。</p>
<p>• 美元对 <strong>加元</strong> 的近期跌势延续，首次跌破 1.35 加元。今天到期的 18 亿加元期权在 1.35 加元。然而，在今天的广泛反弹中，美元几乎达到了 1.3555 加元。昨天的高点接近 1.3580 加元，这也对应于自周二高点（约 1.3740 加元）以来的 38.2% 回撤位。</p>
<p>• <strong>澳元</strong> 在周三的区间内两边交易，形成了大约 0.6970-0.7095 的区间。在记录低点后，澳元在北美下午回升至 0.7040 美元。今天未能大幅上涨（约 0.7055 美元），随后被卖至约 0.6970 美元。初步阻力现在被视为在 0.7010 美元附近。</p>
<p>EM</p>
<p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 昨天大致横盘，偏弱。美元在连续第三个交易日找到支撑，接近 17.10 比索。昨天的挤压使美元升至 17.3455 比索，略低于周二的高点。在记录高点后，美元回落至 17.20 比索。今天美元依然坚挺，短暂交易略高于昨天的高点。若突破 17.38 比索，可能会推动向 17.50 比索的上涨。</p>
<p>• 美元对离岸 <strong>人民币</strong> 接近本周最佳水平。周二记录在 CNH6.9565。今天的高点略高于 CNH6.9535。然而，中国人民银行将美元的参考汇率下调至 CNY6.9680，这是自 2023 年第二季度以来的新低。请注意，这是美元连续第十周对在岸人民币贬值。在此期间，人民币升值约 2.2%。</p>
<p>• <strong>印度卢比</strong> 依然疲软。本周中央银行的干预似乎轻微且不具攻击性。卢比昨天跌至历史低点，今天在该水平附近整理。美元昨天几乎达到了 INR92.0165，今天略低于 INR92.0。</p>
<h3><strong>其他市场</strong></h3>
<p>• <strong>股票</strong> 市场表现不一。亚太地区大多数大型交易所下跌，MSCI 地区指数结束了六天的上涨。或许受到第四季度 GDP 数据略好于预期的影响，欧洲的 Stoxx 600 上涨约 0.35%。美国指数期货指向大幅低开。</p>
<p>• 基准 <strong>10 年期收益率</strong> 今天上涨 1-2 个基点。请注意，标准普尔今天宣布结束对意大利信用评级的审查。10 年期美国国债收益率上涨了略多于 2 个基点，接近 4.26%。10 年期日本国债收益率下降不到一个基点，但曲线长端的收益率略有上升。</p>
<p>• <strong>黄金</strong> 在昨天北美交易结束时从 5375 美元暴跌至今天早些时候的 4943 美元。它在欧洲交易中回升至约 5120 美元。银价从昨天的 115 美元以上暴跌至今天的 95 美元，随后在欧洲回升至 100 美元以上。</p>
<p>• 在昨天飙升 3.5% 后，<strong>3 月 WTI</strong> 今天保持整理，交易较为平静。其交易区间大约在 63.65-65.85 美元之间，今天在欧洲早盘交易中略低于 65 美元。</p>
<h3><strong>数据</strong></h3>
<p>• 预计 12 月 <strong>美国</strong>PPI 略有放缓，整体通胀率从 3.0% 降至 2.8%，核心通胀率从 3.0% 降至 2.9%。预计影响不大。下周的关注点将回到劳动力市场，包括 JOLTS 和 1 月份的非农就业报告。彭博社调查的中位数预测为增加 70,000 个岗位，失业率稳定在 4.4%。</p>
<p>• 超出预期的 11 月贸易逆差可能预示着 <strong>加拿大</strong> 今天 11 月 GDP 数据的下行风险。彭博社调查的中位数预测在贸易数据公布前为增长 0.1%（10 月为-0.3%）。加拿大央行本周早些时候维持利率不变，市场预计政策在年末之前不会改变。</p>
<p>• <strong>墨西哥</strong> 经济预计在第三季度表现不佳后有所反弹。预计第四季度经济增长 0.6%，同比增速为 1.3%。第三季度经济收缩 0.3%，同比增速为-0.1%。中央银行下周召开会议。在 2025 年将目标利率下调 300 个基点后，预计将保持不变，直到年末。</p>
<p>• <strong>欧元区</strong> 经济在第四季度增长 0.3%，与第三季度持平。失业率在 12 月降至 6.2%，低于 6.3%，与历史最低水平持平。与此同时，德国各州报告了 1 月 CPI，国家的欧盟统一数据预计略微下降 0.2%，但由于基数效应，同比增速看起来保持在 2.0%。法国报告 12 月家庭消费下降 0.6%，为连续第二个月下降。西班牙的消费者通胀统一指标在 1 月下降 0.7%，使得同比增速从 2.9% 降至 2.5%。</p>
<p>• <strong>英国</strong> 报告了消费者信贷增长放缓，但 12 月抵押贷款小幅增加。市场影响不大。英国央行下周召开会议，广泛预计将基准利率维持在 3.75% 不变。</p>
<p>• <strong>澳大利亚</strong> 报告了坚挺的第四季度生产者价格：同比增长 3.5%，与第三季度持平。私营部门信贷增长 0.8%，在连续四个月增长 0.6% 后回升。彭博社的经济学家调查中约有四分之三的受访者预计下周将加息。期货市场对加息的预期约为三分之二。</p>
<p>• 东京报告了 1 月 CPI 疲软，而 <strong>日本</strong> 报告了 12 月零售销售和工业生产疲软。CPI 从 2.0% 降至 1.5%，核心 CPI 从 2.3% 降至 2.0%。这是工业产出连续第二次下降，去年总共下降七次，尽管 0.1% 的下降略低于预期。零售销售大幅下降 2.0%。中位数预测为下降 0.5%。这是自 8 月以来的首次下降。中国游客的抵制可能起到了一定作用。日本经济在第四季度同比可能增长 1.2%，价格压力有所缓解。尽管美国呼吁日本加息，但根据亚特兰大联邦储备银行的追踪，美国经济增长超过 5%，特朗普政府继续呼吁美联储积极放宽政策。</p>
<p>• <strong>中国</strong> 将在明天第一时间公布 1 月 PMI。预计与 12 月变化不大，当时综合 PMI 为 50.7。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
<p>美元波动但在北美交易时段前变化不大</p>
<p>美元回吐了昨日部分剧烈损失</p>
<p>美元大部分时间保持整固，而日元波动则显示市场紧张</p>

<p>美元的走势受到关于凯文·沃什可能被提名为美联储主席的猜测影响，导致外汇市场出现波动。尽管欧元在狭窄范围内稳定，但美元对其他货币的表现则显得参差不齐，包括对加元的下跌以及对日元和英镑的波动。来自欧元区和日本的经济数据表明增长谨慎，而美国股市则指向低开。总体而言，市场正在对政治动态和经济指标作出反应</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/user_content/ckimages/orig_gold%20money.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/user_content/ckimages/orig_gold%20money.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p><strong>The market reacted dramatically to media reports that Kevin Warsh will be nominated today to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Powell at the held of the US central bank</strong>. On one hand, Warsh is perceived to be a hawk, but on the other hand, there is little doubt that the Trump administration seeks lower interest rates. The initial reaction was to cover short dollar exposure and there were dramatic moves in the foreign exchange market. However, European turnover has seen the greenback surrender some of its gains. The reaction of US participants is awaited. Meanwhile, it appears an agreement has been struck that will avoid another federal government shutdown, for at least a couple of weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>市场对媒体报道凯文·沃什今天将被提名接替美联储主席鲍威尔的消息做出了剧烈反应</strong>。一方面，沃什被认为是鹰派，但另一方面，特朗普政府显然希望降低利率。最初的反应是覆盖空头美元头寸，外汇市场出现了剧烈波动。然而，欧洲市场的交易量显示美元放弃了一些涨幅。美国参与者的反应仍在等待中。与此同时，似乎达成了一项协议，至少在接下来的几周内将避免再次关闭联邦政府。</p>
</div><p><strong>The eurozone reported slightly better Q4 GDP than expected (0.3% quarter-over-quarter) and some preliminary figures suggest January CPI in the region remained below 2%.</strong> Japan reports softer than expected Tokyo CPI, a sharp drop in retail sales and small decline in industrial output. The data seem to support the cautious Bank of Japan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>欧元区报告的第四季度 GDP 略好于预期（环比增长 0.3%），一些初步数据表明该地区 1 月份的 CPI 仍低于 2%。</strong> 日本报告的东京 CPI 低于预期，零售销售大幅下滑，工业产出小幅下降。这些数据似乎支持日本银行的谨慎态度。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Prices</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>价格</strong></h3>
</div><p>G10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>G10</p>
</div><p>• After the large move on Tuesday, the <strong>euro</strong> spent the second consecutive session inside that day’s range (~$1.1850-$1.2080). Yesterday, it did not trade above $1.20 or below $1.19. Heightened speculation about Warsh being nominated today to succeed Fed Chair Powell sent the euro to $1.1895. It steadied but has not been able to resurface much above $1.1940. Options for 6 bln euros at $1.19 expire tomorrow. A smaller, but still significant option for 2.2 bln euros expire at $1.1925.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在周二的大幅波动后，<strong>欧元</strong> 在连续第二个交易日内维持在当天的区间内（约 1.1850-1.2080）。昨天，欧元未能突破 1.20 或跌破 1.19。关于沃什今天被提名接替美联储主席鲍威尔的猜测加剧，欧元升至 1.1895。虽然有所回稳，但未能大幅回升至 1.1940 以上。明天到期的 6 亿欧元期权在 1.19。还有一项较小但仍然重要的 22 亿欧元期权在 1.1925 到期。</p>
</div><p>• The dollar traded in its narrowest range in five sessions against the <strong>yen</strong> yesterday (~JPY152.70-JPY153.55). A shelf appears forged Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of JPY152.00. Soft Tokyo CPI, disappointing retail sales, and firm US yields lifted the greenback to about JPY154.40 today. The (38.2%) retracement of the dollar’s drop since last Friday’s high is near JPY154.80. BOJ data confirms no material intervention took place in January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 昨天，美元对 <strong>日元</strong> 的交易范围是五个交易日中最窄的（约 152.70 日元-153.55 日元）。在 152.00 日元附近似乎形成了一个支撑位。疲软的东京 CPI、令人失望的零售销售和美国收益率的上升使美元今天升至约 154.40 日元。自上周五高点以来，美元下跌的 38.2% 回撤位接近 154.80 日元。日本银行的数据确认 1 月份没有发生实质性干预。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Sterling</strong> fell through Wednesday’s low but new buying emerged on the dip below $1.3745. Sterling reached almost $1.3810 in the North American afternoon yesterday. Sterling was sold to $1.3725 amid the greenback’s rebound today. Initial downside risk may extend to $1.3690-$1.3700. Options for GBP522 mln at $1.3800 expire today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>英镑</strong> 跌破周三的低点，但在跌破 1.3745 美元时出现了新的买盘。昨天，英镑在北美下午几乎达到了 1.3810 美元。今天，英镑在美元反弹中被卖至 1.3725 美元。初步下行风险可能延伸至 1.3690-1.3700 美元。今天到期的 5.22 亿英镑期权在 1.3800 美元。</p>
</div><p>• The greenback extended is recent losses against the <strong>Canadian dollar</strong> and traded below CAD1.35 for the first time since October 2024. Options for $1.8 bln at CAD1.35 expire today. However, on the broad recovery today, the greenback reached nearly CAD1.3555. Yesterday’s high was near CAD1.3580, which also corresponds to the (38.2%) retracement of the drop since Tuesday’s high (~CAD1.3740).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 美元对 <strong>加元</strong> 的近期跌势延续，首次跌破 1.35 加元。今天到期的 18 亿加元期权在 1.35 加元。然而，在今天的广泛反弹中，美元几乎达到了 1.3555 加元。昨天的高点接近 1.3580 加元，这也对应于自周二高点（约 1.3740 加元）以来的 38.2% 回撤位。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Australian dollar</strong> traded on both sides of Wednesday’s range and carved out a roughly $0.6970-$0.7095 range. After the low was recorded, the Aussie returned to the $0.7040 level in the North American afternoon. It did not get much higher today (~$0.7055) before being sold to about $0.6970. Initial resistance now is seen around $0.7010.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>澳元</strong> 在周三的区间内两边交易，形成了大约 0.6970-0.7095 的区间。在记录低点后，澳元在北美下午回升至 0.7040 美元。今天未能大幅上涨（约 0.7055 美元），随后被卖至约 0.6970 美元。初步阻力现在被视为在 0.7010 美元附近。</p>
</div><p>EM</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EM</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Mexican peso</strong> moved broadly sideways yesterday with a weaker bias. For the third consecutive session, greenback found support ahead of MXN17.10. Yesterday’s squeeze took the dollar to MXN17.3455, holding slightly below Tuesday’s high. After the high was recorded, the dollar pulled back toward MXN17.20. The dollar remains firm today and briefly traded slightly above yesterday’s highs. A move above MXN17.38 could spur a push toward MXN17.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 昨天大致横盘，偏弱。美元在连续第三个交易日找到支撑，接近 17.10 比索。昨天的挤压使美元升至 17.3455 比索，略低于周二的高点。在记录高点后，美元回落至 17.20 比索。今天美元依然坚挺，短暂交易略高于昨天的高点。若突破 17.38 比索，可能会推动向 17.50 比索的上涨。</p>
</div><p>• The US dollar is near the best level of the week against the offshore <strong>yuan</strong>. It was recorded Tuesday near CNH6.9565. Today’s high is slightly above CNH6.9535. Still, the PBOC lowered the dollar’s reference rate to CNY6.9680, a new low since the Q2 2023. Note this is the tenth consecutive week that the dollar has fallen against the onshore yuan. During this run the yuan has appreciated by about 2.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 美元对离岸 <strong>人民币</strong> 接近本周最佳水平。周二记录在 CNH6.9565。今天的高点略高于 CNH6.9535。然而，中国人民银行将美元的参考汇率下调至 CNY6.9680，这是自 2023 年第二季度以来的新低。请注意，这是美元连续第十周对在岸人民币贬值。在此期间，人民币升值约 2.2%。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Indian rupee</strong> remains soft. The central bank’s intervention this week seemed light and unaggressive. The rupee fell to a record low yesterday and is consolidating near it today. The dollar reached almost INR92.0165 yesterday and today it has held slightly below INR92.0</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>印度卢比</strong> 依然疲软。本周中央银行的干预似乎轻微且不具攻击性。卢比昨天跌至历史低点，今天在该水平附近整理。美元昨天几乎达到了 INR92.0165，今天略低于 INR92.0。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Other Markets</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>其他市场</strong></h3>
</div><p>• <strong>Equities</strong> are mixed. Most of the large bourses in the Asis Pacific fell and the MSCI index of the region snapped a six-day advance. Perhaps helped by slightly stronger than expected Q4 GDP figures, Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up about 0.35%. US index futures are pointing to a sharply lower opening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>股票</strong> 市场表现不一。亚太地区大多数大型交易所下跌，MSCI 地区指数结束了六天的上涨。或许受到第四季度 GDP 数据略好于预期的影响，欧洲的 Stoxx 600 上涨约 0.35%。美国指数期货指向大幅低开。</p>
</div><p>• Benchmark <strong>10-year yields</strong> are 1-2 bp firmer today. Note that S&amp;P announces the conclusion of its review of Italy’s credit rating today. The 10-year US Treasury yield is about a little more than 2 bp to approach 4.26%. The 10-year JGB yield softened by less than a basis point but the yields at the long-end of the curve were slightly firmer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 基准 <strong>10 年期收益率</strong> 今天上涨 1-2 个基点。请注意，标准普尔今天宣布结束对意大利信用评级的审查。10 年期美国国债收益率上涨了略多于 2 个基点，接近 4.26%。10 年期日本国债收益率下降不到一个基点，但曲线长端的收益率略有上升。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Gold</strong> was slammed from $5375 in late North American trading yesterday to almost $4943 earlier today. It has recovered to around $5120 in European turnover. Silver tumbled from above $115 yesterday to almost $95 today. It has recovered through $100 in Europe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>黄金</strong> 在昨天北美交易结束时从 5375 美元暴跌至今天早些时候的 4943 美元。它在欧洲交易中回升至约 5120 美元。银价从昨天的 115 美元以上暴跌至今天的 95 美元，随后在欧洲回升至 100 美元以上。</p>
</div><p>• After soaring 3.5% yesterday, <strong>March WTI</strong> is consolidating, quieter today. It is roughly $63.65-$65.85 range and is a little below $65 in late European morning turnover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在昨天飙升 3.5% 后，<strong>3 月 WTI</strong> 今天保持整理，交易较为平静。其交易区间大约在 63.65-65.85 美元之间，今天在欧洲早盘交易中略低于 65 美元。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Data</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>数据</strong></h3>
</div><p>• The December <strong>US</strong> PPI is expected to have softened slightly, with the headline rate slowing to 2.8% from 3.0% and the core rate ticking down to 2.9% from 3.0%. Little impact is likely. Attention next week turns back to the labor market with JOLTS and the January non-farm payroll report. The median projection in Bloomberg’ survey is for a70k increase, with the unemployment rate stable at 4.4%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 预计 12 月 <strong>美国</strong>PPI 略有放缓，整体通胀率从 3.0% 降至 2.8%，核心通胀率从 3.0% 降至 2.9%。预计影响不大。下周的关注点将回到劳动力市场，包括 JOLTS 和 1 月份的非农就业报告。彭博社调查的中位数预测为增加 70,000 个岗位，失业率稳定在 4.4%。</p>
</div><p>• The larger than expected November trade deficit may warn of downside risks to <strong>Canada’s</strong> November GDP print today. The median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey was for a 0.1% growth (-0.3% in October) before the trade figures. The Bank of Canada left rates on hold earlier this week and the market expects policy to be unchanged until late in the year at the earliest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 超出预期的 11 月贸易逆差可能预示着 <strong>加拿大</strong> 今天 11 月 GDP 数据的下行风险。彭博社调查的中位数预测在贸易数据公布前为增长 0.1%（10 月为-0.3%）。加拿大央行本周早些时候维持利率不变，市场预计政策在年末之前不会改变。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Mexico’s</strong> economy is expected to have rebounded after a poor Q3. The economy is expected to grow by 0.6% in Q4 for a 1.3% year-over-year pace. In Q3, the economy contracted by 0.3% and the year-over-year rate was -0.1%. The central bank meets next week. After cutting its target rate by 300 bp in 2025, it is expected to stand pat until later in the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>墨西哥</strong> 经济预计在第三季度表现不佳后有所反弹。预计第四季度经济增长 0.6%，同比增速为 1.3%。第三季度经济收缩 0.3%，同比增速为-0.1%。中央银行下周召开会议。在 2025 年将目标利率下调 300 个基点后，预计将保持不变，直到年末。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>eurozone</strong> economy grew by 0.3% in Q4 to match growth in Q3. The unemployment rate slipped in December to 6.2% from 6.3%, matching the record low. Separately, German states reported January CPI, and the national EU harmonized reading, due shortly, may have slipped 0.2% but due to the base effect, the year-over-year rate looks unchanged at 2.0%. France reported a 0.6 drop in household consumption in December, the second consecutive monthly decline. Spain’s harmonized measure of consumer inflation fell 0.7% in January, pushing the year-over-year rate to 2.5% from 2.9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>欧元区</strong> 经济在第四季度增长 0.3%，与第三季度持平。失业率在 12 月降至 6.2%，低于 6.3%，与历史最低水平持平。与此同时，德国各州报告了 1 月 CPI，国家的欧盟统一数据预计略微下降 0.2%，但由于基数效应，同比增速看起来保持在 2.0%。法国报告 12 月家庭消费下降 0.6%，为连续第二个月下降。西班牙的消费者通胀统一指标在 1 月下降 0.7%，使得同比增速从 2.9% 降至 2.5%。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>UK</strong> reported slower expansion of consumer credit but a small increase in mortgage lending in December. There was little market impact. The Bank of England meets next week and is widely expected to hold the base rate steady at 3.75%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>英国</strong> 报告了消费者信贷增长放缓，但 12 月抵押贷款小幅增加。市场影响不大。英国央行下周召开会议，广泛预计将基准利率维持在 3.75% 不变。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Australia</strong> reported firm Q4 producer prices: 3.5% year-over-year, the same pace as in Q3. Private sector credit expanded by 0.8%, after four months of 0.6% increases. About three quarters of the economist survey by Bloomberg, three-quarters expect a hike next week. The futures market has about 2/3 chance of a hike discounted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>澳大利亚</strong> 报告了坚挺的第四季度生产者价格：同比增长 3.5%，与第三季度持平。私营部门信贷增长 0.8%，在连续四个月增长 0.6% 后回升。彭博社的经济学家调查中约有四分之三的受访者预计下周将加息。期货市场对加息的预期约为三分之二。</p>
</div><p>• Tokyo reported softer January CPI, while <strong>Japan</strong> reported weaker December retail sales and industrial production. The CPI fell to 1.5% from 2.0% and the core rate eased to 2.0% from 2.3%. It is the second consecutive decline in industrial output and the seventh last year, though the 0.1% decline was slightly less than expected. Retail sales fell by a dramatic 2.0%. The median projection was for a 0.5% decline. It is the first decline since August. The boycott of Chinese tourists may have play a role. Japan’s economy may have expanded by 1.2% year-over-year in Q4 and price pressures a moderating. While the US has called on Japan to raise rates, the US economy is expanding at more than 5% according to the Atlanta Fed’s tracker and the Trump administration continues to call on the Fed to ease policy aggressively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 东京报告了 1 月 CPI 疲软，而 <strong>日本</strong> 报告了 12 月零售销售和工业生产疲软。CPI 从 2.0% 降至 1.5%，核心 CPI 从 2.3% 降至 2.0%。这是工业产出连续第二次下降，去年总共下降七次，尽管 0.1% 的下降略低于预期。零售销售大幅下降 2.0%。中位数预测为下降 0.5%。这是自 8 月以来的首次下降。中国游客的抵制可能起到了一定作用。日本经济在第四季度同比可能增长 1.2%，价格压力有所缓解。尽管美国呼吁日本加息，但根据亚特兰大联邦储备银行的追踪，美国经济增长超过 5%，特朗普政府继续呼吁美联储积极放宽政策。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>China</strong> reports its January PMI first thing tomorrow. It is expected to be little changed from December, when the composite was at 50.7.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>中国</strong> 将在明天第一时间公布 1 月 PMI。预计与 12 月变化不大，当时综合 PMI 为 50.7。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者：</em></p>
</div><p>Dollar Gyrations But Little Changed Ahead Of The North American Session</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元波动但在北美交易时段前变化不大</p>
</div><p>US Dollar Retraces Some Of Yesterday's Dramatic Losses</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元回吐了昨日部分剧烈损失</p>
</div><p>Greenback Mostly Consolidates, While Yen Gyrations Point To Nervous Market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元大部分时间保持整固，而日元波动则显示市场紧张</p>
</div>

美元在因猜测沃什将获得美联储主席提名而反弹后陷入停滞