<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/20/08/21/entrepreneur-1340649_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/20/08/21/entrepreneur-1340649_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>每周我们会对观察名单中的一家公司进行折现现金流（DCF）模型分析。本周的选择：台湾半导体制造公司（TSM）。</p>
<h3><strong>公司简介</strong></h3>
<p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）是全球领先的专用半导体代工厂，制造用于数据中心、人工智能加速器、智能手机、个人电脑、汽车和工业电子产品的先进逻辑芯片。该公司的工艺领导地位、规模优势、客户多样性和技术路线图创造了难以复制的持久竞争优势。尽管半导体行业具有周期性和资本密集型的特点，TSMC 在整个商业周期中始终能够产生强劲的现金流，这得益于对计算和先进节点产能的长期结构性需求。</p>
<h3><strong>DCF 分析</strong></h3>
<p><strong>输入</strong></p>
<p>折现率：10%</p>
<p>终端增长率：3%</p>
<p>加权平均资本成本（WACC）：10%</p>
<p><strong>预测自由现金流（美元）</strong></p>
<p>2025 年：$4.6 → 现值：$4.2</p>
<p>2026 年：$5.0 → 现值：$4.1</p>
<p>2027 年：$5.4 → 现值：$4.1</p>
<p>2028 年：$5.8 → 现值：$4.0</p>
<p>2029 年：$6.2 → 现值：$3.9</p>
<p>自由现金流总现值 = <strong>$20.3B</strong></p>
<p><strong>终端价值计算（美元）</strong></p>
<p>使用永续增长模型，2029 年自由现金流 = <strong>$6.2B</strong>：</p>
<p>终端价值 = (6.2 × 1.03) ÷ (0.10 − 0.03) = <strong>$91.2B</strong></p>
<p>终端价值的现值：</p>
<p>现值 (终端价值) = 91.2 ÷ (1.10)^5 = <strong>$56.6B</strong></p>
<p><strong>企业价值（美元）</strong></p>
<p>企业价值 = $20.3B + $56.6B = <strong>$76.9B</strong></p>
<p><strong>净债务（美元）</strong></p>
<p>现金及现金等价物：约$85B</p>
<p>总债务：约$27B</p>
<p>净债务 ≈ <strong>–$58B</strong></p>
<p><strong>股权价值及每股价值（美元）</strong></p>
<p>股权价值：$76.9B + $58B = <strong>$134.9B</strong></p>
<p>流通股数：约 25.9B</p>
<p>每股内在价值 ≈ <strong>$5.21</strong></p>
<p>（ADR 代表 5 股 → <strong>≈ $26.05/ADR</strong>）</p>
<h3><strong>结论</strong></h3>
<p>DCF 价值：约$26/ADR</p>
<p>当前价格：约$339/ADR</p>
<p>安全边际：–92%</p>
<p>TSMC 仍然是一个战略性关键的半导体品牌，拥有世界级的制造能力、强劲的结构性需求驱动因素以及在工艺技术和规模上的持久竞争优势。其在半导体周期中持续产生现金的能力支持了长期投资的吸引力。</p>
<p>然而，在使用 10% 的折现率和 3% 的终端增长率的标准化 DCF 框架下，当前市场价格暗示的预期显著高于保守的内在价值。该估值反映了对人工智能驱动的先进节点需求、利润扩张、资本回报和地缘政治稀缺价值的乐观假设。</p>
<p>对于长期投资者而言，TSM 代表了一个在结构性增长行业中的主导企业。然而，在今天的估值下，该股票提供的安全边际有限，这表明未来的回报可能更多地依赖于持续的执行和行业顺风，而不是倍数扩张。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
<p>深度价值医疗服务运营商 – Nutex Health Inc</p>
<p>Wingstop：我们对内在价值的计算</p>
<p>Altria Group, Inc.：深度价值消费品现金机器</p>

2 倍做多 TSM ETF - GraniteShares

费城交易所 半导体 ETF - iShares

1 倍做空 TSM ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多台积电 ETF - Direxion

Taitron电子配件

半导体 ETF - VanEck Vectors

标普半导体 ETF - SPDR

2 倍做多 TSM ETF - Leverage Shares

<p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）通过折现现金流（DCF）模型进行分析，得出的内在价值约为每股 5.21 美元，而当前市场价格约为每个美国存托凭证（ADR）339 美元，显示出高达-92% 的显著安全边际。尽管 TSMC 拥有强劲的现金流生成能力和竞争优势，但高市场价格反映了对人工智能需求和增长的乐观预期。长期投资者可能会发现 TSMC 具有吸引力，但该股票当前的估值表明上涨潜力有限，更多依赖于执行和行业趋势，而非价格上涨</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/20/08/21/entrepreneur-1340649_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/04/20/08/21/entrepreneur-1340649_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>Each week we run a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model on a company from our watchlist. This week’s pick: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每周我们会对观察名单中的一家公司进行折现现金流（DCF）模型分析。本周的选择：台湾半导体制造公司（TSM）。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Profile</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>公司简介</strong></h3>
</div><p>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) is the world’s leading dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing advanced logic chips used across data centers, AI accelerators, smartphones, PCs, automobiles, and industrial electronics. The company’s process leadership, scale advantages, customer diversity, and technological roadmap create durable competitive advantages that are difficult to replicate. While the semiconductor industry is cyclical and capital-intensive, TSMC consistently generates strong cash flows across business cycles supported by long-term structural demand for computation and advanced node capacity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）是全球领先的专用半导体代工厂，制造用于数据中心、人工智能加速器、智能手机、个人电脑、汽车和工业电子产品的先进逻辑芯片。该公司的工艺领导地位、规模优势、客户多样性和技术路线图创造了难以复制的持久竞争优势。尽管半导体行业具有周期性和资本密集型的特点，TSMC 在整个商业周期中始终能够产生强劲的现金流，这得益于对计算和先进节点产能的长期结构性需求。</p>
</div><h3><strong>DCF Analysis</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>DCF 分析</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong>Inputs</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>输入</strong></p>
</div><p>Discount Rate: 10%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现率：10%</p>
</div><p>Terminal Growth Rate: 3%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>终端增长率：3%</p>
</div><p>WACC: 10%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加权平均资本成本（WACC）：10%</p>
</div><p><strong>Forecasted Free Cash Flows (USD)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>预测自由现金流（美元）</strong></p>
</div><p>2025: $4.6 → PV: $4.2</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年：$4.6 → 现值：$4.2</p>
</div><p>2026: $5.0 → PV: $4.1</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年：$5.0 → 现值：$4.1</p>
</div><p>2027: $5.4 → PV: $4.1</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2027 年：$5.4 → 现值：$4.1</p>
</div><p>2028: $5.8 → PV: $4.0</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2028 年：$5.8 → 现值：$4.0</p>
</div><p>2029: $6.2 → PV: $3.9</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2029 年：$6.2 → 现值：$3.9</p>
</div><p>Total Present Value of FCFs = <strong>$20.3B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自由现金流总现值 = <strong>$20.3B</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Terminal Value Calculation (USD)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>终端价值计算（美元）</strong></p>
</div><p>Using the perpetuity growth model with 2029 FCF = <strong>$6.2B</strong>:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用永续增长模型，2029 年自由现金流 = <strong>$6.2B</strong>：</p>
</div><p>TV = (6.2 × 1.03) ÷ (0.10 − 0.03) = <strong>$91.2B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>终端价值 = (6.2 × 1.03) ÷ (0.10 − 0.03) = <strong>$91.2B</strong></p>
</div><p>Present Value of Terminal Value:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>终端价值的现值：</p>
</div><p>PV(TV) = 91.2 ÷ (1.10)^5 = <strong>$56.6B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现值 (终端价值) = 91.2 ÷ (1.10)^5 = <strong>$56.6B</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Enterprise Value (USD)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>企业价值（美元）</strong></p>
</div><p>Enterprise Value = $20.3B + $56.6B = <strong>$76.9B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企业价值 = $20.3B + $56.6B = <strong>$76.9B</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Net Debt (USD)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>净债务（美元）</strong></p>
</div><p>Cash &amp; Equivalents: ~$85B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现金及现金等价物：约$85B</p>
</div><p>Total Debt: ~$27B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总债务：约$27B</p>
</div><p>Net Debt ≈ <strong>–$58B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>净债务 ≈ <strong>–$58B</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Equity Value &amp; Per-Share Value (USD)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>股权价值及每股价值（美元）</strong></p>
</div><p>Equity Value: $76.9B + $58B = <strong>$134.9B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股权价值：$76.9B + $58B = <strong>$134.9B</strong></p>
</div><p>Shares Outstanding: ~25.9B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流通股数：约 25.9B</p>
</div><p>Intrinsic Value per Share ≈ <strong>$5.21</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每股内在价值 ≈ <strong>$5.21</strong></p>
</div><p>(ADR represents 5 shares → <strong>≈ $26.05/ADR</strong>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（ADR 代表 5 股 → <strong>≈ $26.05/ADR</strong>）</p>
</div><h3><strong>Conclusion</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>结论</strong></h3>
</div><p>DCF Value: ~$26/ADR</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>DCF 价值：约$26/ADR</p>
</div><p>Current Price: ~$339/ADR</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前价格：约$339/ADR</p>
</div><p>Margin of Safety: –92%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安全边际：–92%</p>
</div><p>TSMC remains a strategically critical semiconductor franchise with world-class manufacturing capabilities, strong structural demand drivers, and durable competitive advantages in process technology and scale. Its ability to consistently generate cash through semiconductor cycles supports long-term investment appeal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSMC 仍然是一个战略性关键的半导体品牌，拥有世界级的制造能力、强劲的结构性需求驱动因素以及在工艺技术和规模上的持久竞争优势。其在半导体周期中持续产生现金的能力支持了长期投资的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>However, under a standardized DCF framework using a 10% discount rate and 3% terminal growth, the current market price implies expectations significantly above conservative intrinsic value. The valuation reflects premium assumptions about AI-driven demand for advanced nodes, margin expansion, capital returns, and geopolitical scarcity value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在使用 10% 的折现率和 3% 的终端增长率的标准化 DCF 框架下，当前市场价格暗示的预期显著高于保守的内在价值。该估值反映了对人工智能驱动的先进节点需求、利润扩张、资本回报和地缘政治稀缺价值的乐观假设。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, TSM represents a dominant player in a structurally growing industry. At today’s valuation, however, the stock offers limited margin of safety, suggesting future returns are likely to be driven more by continued execution and industry tailwinds than by multiple expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于长期投资者而言，TSM 代表了一个在结构性增长行业中的主导企业。然而，在今天的估值下，该股票提供的安全边际有限，这表明未来的回报可能更多地依赖于持续的执行和行业顺风，而不是倍数扩张。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
</div><p>Deep Value Healthcare Services Operator – Nutex Health Inc</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>深度价值医疗服务运营商 – Nutex Health Inc</p>
</div><p>Wingstop: Our Calculation Of Intrinsic Value</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wingstop：我们对内在价值的计算</p>
</div><p>Altria Group, Inc.: A Deep Value Consumer Staples Cash Machine</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Altria Group, Inc.：深度价值消费品现金机器</p>
</div>

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited: Our Calculation Of Intrinsic Value

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