<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monero-price-prediction.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monero-price-prediction.jpg"/></p>
<p>门罗币面临新的压力，熊市情绪在更广泛的加密市场中愈发紧绷。</p>
<p>这款以隐私为重点的资产在跌破关键技术水平后，难以恢复动能。</p>
<p>与此同时，宏观不确定性和监管阻力加大了 XMR 的下行风险。</p>
<p>这些因素的汇聚使得交易者采取了更为防御的姿态。</p>
<p>因此，尽管门罗币的长期基本面强劲，但其短期前景依然脆弱。</p>
<h2>监管压力加剧门罗币的熊市情绪</h2>
<p>施加在门罗币上的主要力量之一是针对隐私币的监管审查日益加剧。</p>
<p>俄罗斯即将出台的加密框架将零售加密投资限制在每年约 4000 美元，明确排除了像 XMR 这样的隐私资产。</p>
<p>这一排除在规则生效之前就减少了主要市场的潜在零售需求。</p>
<p>欧盟类似的提案计划在 2027 年前限制匿名加密账户，这进一步加剧了这些担忧。</p>
<p>这些措施共同增加了交易所上市门罗币的合规风险。</p>
<p>过去的下架事件，如早期监管浪潮中的情况，仍然在交易者的记忆中。</p>
<p>尽管门罗币的 24 小时交易量急剧上升，但这一激增主要反映了恐慌性抛售，而非信心积累。</p>
<p>流动性动态的变化使得价格走势更容易受到剧烈下跌的影响。</p>
<h2>技术性破位暴露更深的下行水平</h2>
<p>从技术角度来看，门罗币的结构在最近几轮交易中显著减弱。</p>
<p>价格果断跌破了心理上重要的 450 美元支撑区。</p>
<p>这一破位触发了止损订单，加速了卖压。</p>
<p>动量指标确认了这一熊市转变。</p>
<p>MACD 直方图持续处于深度负值，显示出下行动能的增强。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-327.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-327.png"/></p>
<p>门罗币价格图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
<p>与此同时，RSI 在日线图上徘徊在 41 附近，显示出疲软，但尚未达到极度超卖的状态。</p>
<p>这一组合表明卖方仍然控制着趋势。</p>
<p>50 日移动平均线附近的 481 美元作为坚实的阻力，限制了反弹尝试。</p>
<p>在下行方面，分析师密切关注 437.90 美元的支撑水平，作为第一道防线。</p>
<p>如果持续跌破该区域，将暴露出接近 419.90 美元的下一个支撑。</p>
<p>该区域与更广泛的 417 美元区域紧密对齐，强化了其作为关键转折点的地位。</p>
<p>未能守住这一集群可能会打开更深回撤的大门。</p>
<h2>风险规避市场条件加剧卖压</h2>
<p>门罗币的疲软是在广泛市场风险厌恶的背景下展开的。</p>
<p>整个加密货币市场的总市值急剧下降，反映出广泛的去杠杆化。</p>
<p>比特币的主导地位上升，资本从小币种转向被认为更安全的大型资产。</p>
<p>这种环境往往对隐私币等小众领域造成不成比例的伤害。</p>
<p>加密恐惧与贪婪指数的读数为 28，突显了市场焦虑的深度。</p>
<p>在恐惧驱动的情况下，交易者更可能先卖出，然后再重新评估。</p>
<p>门罗币在过去 90 天的强劲表现也使其成为获利了结的目标。</p>
<p>随着情绪恶化，这些收益变得容易迅速回吐。</p>
<p>这加剧了技术破位和监管担忧的影响。</p>
<p>前景取决于支撑和情绪的变化</p>
<p>短期内，门罗币的价格前景仍然偏向下行。</p>
<p>持续在之前的支撑水平下交易保持了熊市叙事的完整性。</p>
<p>如果果断失去 417–420 美元的支撑区，可能会确认更深的修正阶段。</p>
<p>相反，若在该区域上方稳定，可能为反弹铺平道路。</p>
<p>然而，任何有意义的反弹都需要重新夺回 480 美元，并改善更广泛的市场情绪。</p>
<p>缓解监管担忧和对比特币的重新买入也将是恢复信心的必要条件。</p>
<p>在这些条件尚未实现之前，门罗币似乎面临持续的风险规避卖压。</p>
<p>目前，交易者仍然保持谨慎，因为短期阻力掩盖了长期信念。</p>
<p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《门罗币价格前景：XMR 面临加剧的风险规避卖压》。</p>

EZBC

2 倍做多 Coinbase ETF - Leverage Shares

IBIT

<p>Monero (XMR) 在加密市场的悲观情绪中面临加剧的卖压，价格在关键技术水平下挣扎。监管审查，特别是针对隐私币的审查，增加了下行风险，俄罗斯和欧盟的提案限制了零售投资者的参与。Monero 的价格已跌破 450 美元的支撑位，分析师正密切关注 437.90 美元的水平。整体市场的风险厌恶情绪导致了获利了结，并增加了比特币的主导地位，进一步影响了 XMR。短期前景依然负面，除非 Monero 稳定在 420 美元以上并突破 480 美元的阻力位</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monero-price-prediction.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/monero-price-prediction.jpg"/></p>
<p>Monero is under renewed pressure as bearish sentiment tightens its grip across the broader crypto market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>门罗币面临新的压力，熊市情绪在更广泛的加密市场中愈发紧绷。</p>
</div><p>The privacy-focused asset has struggled to regain momentum after slipping below key technical levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这款以隐私为重点的资产在跌破关键技术水平后，难以恢复动能。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, macro uncertainty and regulatory headwinds have amplified downside risks for XMR.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，宏观不确定性和监管阻力加大了 XMR 的下行风险。</p>
</div><p>This convergence of factors has pushed traders into a more defensive posture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些因素的汇聚使得交易者采取了更为防御的姿态。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Monero’s near-term outlook remains fragile despite its strong long-term fundamentals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管门罗币的长期基本面强劲，但其短期前景依然脆弱。</p>
</div><h2>Regulatory pressure reinforces bearish sentiment for Monero</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>监管压力加剧门罗币的熊市情绪</h2>
</div><p>One of the dominant forces weighing on Monero is the intensifying regulatory scrutiny aimed at privacy coins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>施加在门罗币上的主要力量之一是针对隐私币的监管审查日益加剧。</p>
</div><p>Russia’s upcoming crypto framework, which caps retail crypto exposure at roughly $4,000 per year, explicitly excludes privacy assets like XMR.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>俄罗斯即将出台的加密框架将零售加密投资限制在每年约 4000 美元，明确排除了像 XMR 这样的隐私资产。</p>
</div><p>This exclusion has reduced prospective retail demand in a major market before the rules even take effect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一排除在规则生效之前就减少了主要市场的潜在零售需求。</p>
</div><p>Similar proposals in the European Union to restrict anonymous crypto accounts by 2027 have reinforced these concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟类似的提案计划在 2027 年前限制匿名加密账户，这进一步加剧了这些担忧。</p>
</div><p>Together, these measures have increased the perceived compliance risk for exchanges listing Monero.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些措施共同增加了交易所上市门罗币的合规风险。</p>
</div><p>Past delistings, such as those seen in earlier regulatory waves, remain fresh in traders’ minds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去的下架事件，如早期监管浪潮中的情况，仍然在交易者的记忆中。</p>
</div><p>While Monero’s 24-hour trading volume jumped sharply, the surge largely reflected panic-driven selling rather than confident accumulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管门罗币的 24 小时交易量急剧上升，但这一激增主要反映了恐慌性抛售，而非信心积累。</p>
</div><p>This shift in liquidity dynamics has left price action more vulnerable to sharp downside moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流动性动态的变化使得价格走势更容易受到剧烈下跌的影响。</p>
</div><h2>Technical breakdown exposes deeper downside levels</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>技术性破位暴露更深的下行水平</h2>
</div><p>From a technical perspective, Monero’s structure has weakened notably in recent sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从技术角度来看，门罗币的结构在最近几轮交易中显著减弱。</p>
</div><p>The price broke decisively below the psychologically important $450 support zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格果断跌破了心理上重要的 450 美元支撑区。</p>
</div><p>That breakdown triggered stop-loss orders and accelerated selling pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一破位触发了止损订单，加速了卖压。</p>
</div><p>Momentum indicators have confirmed this bearish shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>动量指标确认了这一熊市转变。</p>
</div><p>The MACD histogram has remained deeply negative, signalling strengthening downside momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MACD 直方图持续处于深度负值，显示出下行动能的增强。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-327.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-327.png"/></p>
<p>Monero price chart | Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>门罗币价格图表 | 来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, the RSI has hovered around 41 on the daily chart, showing weakness without yet reaching extreme oversold conditions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，RSI 在日线图上徘徊在 41 附近，显示出疲软，但尚未达到极度超卖的状态。</p>
</div><p>This combination suggests sellers still control the trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一组合表明卖方仍然控制着趋势。</p>
</div><p>The 50-day moving average near $481 has acted as firm resistance, capping recovery attempts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>50 日移动平均线附近的 481 美元作为坚实的阻力，限制了反弹尝试。</p>
</div><p>On the downside, analysts are closely watching the $437.90 support level as the first line of defence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下行方面，分析师密切关注 437.90 美元的支撑水平，作为第一道防线。</p>
</div><p>A sustained break below this area would expose the next support near $419.90.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果持续跌破该区域，将暴露出接近 419.90 美元的下一个支撑。</p>
</div><p>That zone aligns closely with the broader $417 region, reinforcing it as a critical inflexion point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该区域与更广泛的 417 美元区域紧密对齐，强化了其作为关键转折点的地位。</p>
</div><p>Failure to hold this cluster could open the door to even deeper retracements.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未能守住这一集群可能会打开更深回撤的大门。</p>
</div><h2>Risk-off market conditions magnify selling pressure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险规避市场条件加剧卖压</h2>
</div><p>Monero’s weakness has unfolded against a backdrop of broad market risk aversion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>门罗币的疲软是在广泛市场风险厌恶的背景下展开的。</p>
</div><p>The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has declined sharply, reflecting widespread deleveraging.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整个加密货币市场的总市值急剧下降，反映出广泛的去杠杆化。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin dominance has increased as capital rotates away from altcoins into perceived safer large-cap assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币的主导地位上升，资本从小币种转向被认为更安全的大型资产。</p>
</div><p>This environment tends to disproportionately hurt niche segments such as privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种环境往往对隐私币等小众领域造成不成比例的伤害。</p>
</div><p>The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading of 28 underscores the depth of market anxiety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密恐惧与贪婪指数的读数为 28，突显了市场焦虑的深度。</p>
</div><p>In fear-driven conditions, traders are more likely to sell first and reassess later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在恐惧驱动的情况下，交易者更可能先卖出，然后再重新评估。</p>
</div><p>Monero’s strong performance over the prior 90 days has also made it a target for profit-taking.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>门罗币在过去 90 天的强劲表现也使其成为获利了结的目标。</p>
</div><p>As sentiment soured, those gains became vulnerable to rapid unwinding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着情绪恶化，这些收益变得容易迅速回吐。</p>
</div><p>This has compounded the impact of technical breakdowns and regulatory concerns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这加剧了技术破位和监管担忧的影响。</p>
</div><p>Outlook hinges on support and sentiment shifts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前景取决于支撑和情绪的变化</p>
</div><p>In the near term, Monero’s price outlook remains skewed to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期内，门罗币的价格前景仍然偏向下行。</p>
</div><p>Sustained trading below former support levels keeps the bearish narrative intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续在之前的支撑水平下交易保持了熊市叙事的完整性。</p>
</div><p>A decisive loss of the $417–$420 support zone would likely confirm a deeper corrective phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果果断失去 417–420 美元的支撑区，可能会确认更深的修正阶段。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, stabilisation above this region could set the stage for a relief bounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，若在该区域上方稳定，可能为反弹铺平道路。</p>
</div><p>However, any meaningful recovery would require a reclaim of $480 and improving broader market sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，任何有意义的反弹都需要重新夺回 480 美元，并改善更广泛的市场情绪。</p>
</div><p>Easing regulatory fears and a renewed bid for Bitcoin would also be necessary to restore confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>缓解监管担忧和对比特币的重新买入也将是恢复信心的必要条件。</p>
</div><p>Until those conditions materialise, Monero appears exposed to continued risk-off selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这些条件尚未实现之前，门罗币似乎面临持续的风险规避卖压。</p>
</div><p>For now, traders remain cautious as short-term headwinds overshadow long-term conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，交易者仍然保持谨慎，因为短期阻力掩盖了长期信念。</p>
</div><p>The post Monero price outlook as XMR faces amplified risk-off selling appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文首发于 Invezz，标题为《门罗币价格前景：XMR 面临加剧的风险规避卖压》。</p>
</div>

Monero price outlook as XMR faces amplified risk-off selling

- Monero 面临市场的卖压，因整体加密市场的 bearish 情绪加剧。  
- 监管审查和技术层面崩溃加大了 XMR 的下行风险。  
- 如果无法维持在 $417-$420 的支撑区间，将确认深度修正阶段。

invezz

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF

21Shares Ethereum ETF

Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF

Marathon Digital

Bitdeer Tech

COIN 周收益 ETF - Roundhill

2 倍做空 COIN ETF - GraniteShares

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

Hut 8 Mining

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ether Strategy ETF

CleanSpark

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

2 倍做多 COIN ETF - GraniteShares

1 倍做空加密货币行业 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多加密货币行业 ETF - Direxion

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

Galaxy Digital

Proshares Ether Strategy ETF

BTCS

Riot Platforms

Bitfarms Canada

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

比特数字

Grayscale Bitcoin Premium Income ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

Coinbase

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

Bakkt

Fidelity Ethereum Fund

IShares Ethereum Trust ETF

区块链 ETF - Amplify

Grayscale Litecoin Trust (LTC)

BITFARMS LTD

门罗币的价格前景如何，XMR 正面临加剧的风险规避性抛售压力