<p>市场紧张局势在 1 月 29 日升级，随之而来的是一场大规模的清算事件，导致各类资产损失数十亿美元。此次抛售波及黄金和加密货币，明显引发资金流入比特币及其他风险市场。</p>
<p>比特币 [BTC]，全球市值最大的加密货币，跌至约 81,000 美元，这是自 2025 年 4 月以来的最低水平，使其市值降至约 1.64 万亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，黄金遭受了更为严重的打击。在同一时期，黄金的市场价值几乎蒸发了 1.60 万亿美元，损失接近比特币整体市值的规模。</p>
<p>尽管如此，分析师们认为，整体形势可能最终有利于比特币，市场对资金轮换的预期日益增强，这可能会定义市场的下一个阶段。</p>
<h2><strong>早期信号指向黄金向比特币的轮换</strong></h2>
<p>市场分析师兼 Alphractal 创始人 João Pedro 几周前就已指出轮换的可能性。</p>
<p>在之前的一篇文章中，他提到黄金正接近 “买入高潮”，这一阶段通常会伴随清算事件和比特币的短期疲软。此后，这一序列几乎如预期般展开。</p>
<p>根据 João 的说法，黄金最近的上涨反映了后期买家的涌入，推动了动能的上升。从历史上看，这一阶段往往会恢复 “乐观和自满”，然后转入横盘价格走势，黄金现在可能正进入这一领域。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“随着流动性逐渐退出黄金，资金转向风险资产的概率增加。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>对于许多投资者来说，主要的加密货币仍然是首选的风险资产，比特币则牢牢处于流动性和市场关注的中心。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0501.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0501.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：TradingView</p>
<p>João 的观点得到了瑞士区块链公司 Swissblock 首席宏观经济学家 Henrik Zeberg 的呼应，他认为 BTC-黄金比率可能正在形成长期底部。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“BTC-黄金比率的底部已经形成。让轮换开始。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>虽然没有明确的时间表来说明这一过渡可能需要多长时间，但更广泛的含义指向比特币资本流入的恢复。</p>
<p>João 强化了这一展望，表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“从历史上看，这一阶段通常会持续数月，并且与比特币在周期中遵循的历史分形密切相关——大型机构资本在此窗口期内会积极重新配置到比特币。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2><strong>看涨条件开始为比特币对齐</strong></h2>
<p>根据 Bitwise 欧洲研究负责人 André Dragosch 的说法，看涨市场情绪正在逐渐形成，他认为贵金属的持续强劲最终可能支持比特币的再次上涨。</p>
<p>Dragosch 将这一展望与再通胀联系在一起，这一阶段的特点是旨在刺激经济活动的政策。他认为，缺乏这种宏观顺风因素延迟了风险偏好，但并未消除比特币的长期吸引力。</p>
<p>尽管宏观背景具有挑战性，他指出，比特币交易所交易产品（ETP）和企业财政持有的比特币的敞口增加了约 4.2 倍，突显出机构信心的增强。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0499.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0499.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Bitwise</p>
<p>他补充说，几个催化剂可能推动下一轮上涨，包括 ISM 制造业指数的趋势、新任美联储主席的任命、主要美国证券公司对比特币 ETF 的资本部署增加，以及更多公司采用比特币财政策略。</p>
<p>在谈到相对估值时，Dragosch 指出：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“无论从哪个角度看，BTC-黄金比率都被严重低估和超卖。” 并补充说，“BTC/黄金之间的相对表现往往与全球风险偏好相伴随。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>他强调，比特币在风险偏好环境中表现最佳，而在投资者退回到防御性布局时则表现不佳。</p>
<p>Dragosch 还强调了一个反复出现的市场模式：黄金通常首先上涨，领先比特币四到七个月，之后比特币往往在百分比上表现更佳。</p>
<h2><strong>短期疲软测试关键技术水平</strong></h2>
<p>比特币已跌破其两年简单移动平均线（SMA），这一水平之前曾作为关键支撑区。</p>
<p>如果持续低于这一阈值，可能会使该资产面临进一步的下行压力，尤其是在看跌动能持续的情况下。</p>
<p>然而，历史表明，这一阶段通常为重大反弹奠定基础。在之前的周期中，跌破两年 SMA 的情况与长期投资者的持续积累相吻合，随后迎来了更广泛的牛市。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0500.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0500.jpeg"/></p>
<p>来源：Alphractal</p>
<p>这与黄金向比特币的逐步资本轮换的主流叙事相符，这可能会看到大型机构及其客户在新一轮反弹出现之前悄然建立头寸，再次没有明确的时间表。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最后思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>如果资本继续从黄金转向风险资产，比特币将受益，尽管目前尚无明确的时间表来说明这一转变何时可能显著加速。</em></li>
<li><em>经济缓解和更广泛的风险偏好环境的结合，最终可能为持续上涨提供所需的催化剂。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>分析师警告黄金可能出现 “买入高潮”，这暗示资本可能转向比特币。在 1 月 29 日经历了一次重大抛售后，比特币的价值降至约 81,000 美元，而黄金的市场价值损失近 1.6 万亿美元。分析师，包括 João Pedro 和 André Dragosch，预测由于机构投资者的兴趣和宏观经济因素，资金将从黄金转向比特币。尽管比特币最近跌破了其两年移动平均线，但历史模式表明，这可能为未来的反弹铺平道路，因为资本重新配置到比特币等风险资产中</p>

<p>Market tension escalated on the 29th of January, following a large-scale liquidation event that wiped billions of dollars across asset classes. The sell-off hit both gold and cryptocurrencies, triggering visible capital movement into Bitcoin and other risk markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场紧张局势在 1 月 29 日升级，随之而来的是一场大规模的清算事件，导致各类资产损失数十亿美元。此次抛售波及黄金和加密货币，明显引发资金流入比特币及其他风险市场。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin [BTC], the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell to around $81,000, a level last seen in April 2025, dragging its market capitalization down to roughly $1.64 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币 [BTC]，全球市值最大的加密货币，跌至约 81,000 美元，这是自 2025 年 4 月以来的最低水平，使其市值降至约 1.64 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Gold, however, suffered a more severe blow. Nearly $1.60 trillion was erased from its market value over the same period, a loss approaching the size of Bitcoin’s entire market capitalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，黄金遭受了更为严重的打击。在同一时期，黄金的市场价值几乎蒸发了 1.60 万亿美元，损失接近比特币整体市值的规模。</p>
</div><p>Still, analysts argue the broader setup may ultimately favor Bitcoin, with growing expectations that capital rotation could define the market’s next phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，分析师们认为，整体形势可能最终有利于比特币，市场对资金轮换的预期日益增强，这可能会定义市场的下一个阶段。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Early signals point to a gold-to-Bitcoin rotation</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>早期信号指向黄金向比特币的轮换</strong></h2>
</div><p>João Pedro, a market analyst and founder of Alphractal, had flagged the possibility of a rotation weeks earlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场分析师兼 Alphractal 创始人 João Pedro 几周前就已指出轮换的可能性。</p>
</div><p>In a prior post, he noted that gold was approaching a ‘Buy Climax,’ a phase often followed by a liquidation event and temporary weakness in Bitcoin. That sequence has since unfolded almost precisely as anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在之前的一篇文章中，他提到黄金正接近 “买入高潮”，这一阶段通常会伴随清算事件和比特币的短期疲软。此后，这一序列几乎如预期般展开。</p>
</div><p>According to João, gold’s recent surge reflected an influx of late buyers, which helped drive momentum higher. Historically, this phase tends to revive “optimism and complacency” before transitioning into sideways price action, territory gold may now be entering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 João 的说法，黄金最近的上涨反映了后期买家的涌入，推动了动能的上升。从历史上看，这一阶段往往会恢复 “乐观和自满”，然后转入横盘价格走势，黄金现在可能正进入这一领域。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“As liquidity gradually exits gold, the probability increases that capital rotates into risk assets.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“随着流动性逐渐退出黄金，资金转向风险资产的概率增加。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>For many investors, major cryptocurrencies remain the primary risk assets of choice, with Bitcoin firmly at the center of liquidity and market attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于许多投资者来说，主要的加密货币仍然是首选的风险资产，比特币则牢牢处于流动性和市场关注的中心。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0501.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0501.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>João’s view is echoed by Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at Swissblock, who believes the BTC–gold ratio may be forming a long-term bottom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>João 的观点得到了瑞士区块链公司 Swissblock 首席宏观经济学家 Henrik Zeberg 的呼应，他认为 BTC-黄金比率可能正在形成长期底部。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Large bottom in for BTC-GOLD ratio imo. Let the rotation begin.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“BTC-黄金比率的底部已经形成。让轮换开始。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>While there is no definitive timeline for how long this transition may take, the broader implication points toward renewed capital inflows into Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然没有明确的时间表来说明这一过渡可能需要多长时间，但更广泛的含义指向比特币资本流入的恢复。</p>
</div><p>João reinforced this outlook, stating:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>João 强化了这一展望，表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Historically, this phase unfolds over several months and appears closely aligned with the historical fractal Bitcoin has followed across cycles—the window where large institutional capital reallocates aggressively into Bitcoin.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“从历史上看，这一阶段通常会持续数月，并且与比特币在周期中遵循的历史分形密切相关——大型机构资本在此窗口期内会积极重新配置到比特币。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2><strong>Bullish conditions begin to align for Bitcoin</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>看涨条件开始为比特币对齐</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bull-market sentiment is gradually building, according to André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, who believes the ongoing strength in precious metals could ultimately support a renewed Bitcoin rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Bitwise 欧洲研究负责人 André Dragosch 的说法，看涨市场情绪正在逐渐形成，他认为贵金属的持续强劲最终可能支持比特币的再次上涨。</p>
</div><p>Dragosch links this outlook to reflation, a phase marked by policies aimed at stimulating economic activity. He argues that the absence of such macro tailwinds has delayed risk appetite, but not eliminated Bitcoin’s long-term appeal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dragosch 将这一展望与再通胀联系在一起，这一阶段的特点是旨在刺激经济活动的政策。他认为，缺乏这种宏观顺风因素延迟了风险偏好，但并未消除比特币的长期吸引力。</p>
</div><p>Despite the challenging macro backdrop, he points out that Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) and corporate treasury holdings have increased exposure by roughly 4.2 times, underscoring growing institutional conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管宏观背景具有挑战性，他指出，比特币交易所交易产品（ETP）和企业财政持有的比特币的敞口增加了约 4.2 倍，突显出机构信心的增强。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0499.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0499.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Bitwise</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Bitwise</p>
</div><p>He adds that several catalysts could drive the next leg higher, including trends in the ISM Manufacturing Index, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, increased capital deployment by major U.S. wirehouses into Bitcoin ETFs, and more companies adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他补充说，几个催化剂可能推动下一轮上涨，包括 ISM 制造业指数的趋势、新任美联储主席的任命、主要美国证券公司对比特币 ETF 的资本部署增加，以及更多公司采用比特币财政策略。</p>
</div><p>Commenting on relative valuation, Dragosch noted:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在谈到相对估值时，Dragosch 指出：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“BTC-Gold is heavily under-priced and over-sold any way you look at it,” adding that “this relative performance between BTC/Gold tends to move with global risk appetite.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“无论从哪个角度看，BTC-黄金比率都被严重低估和超卖。” 并补充说，“BTC/黄金之间的相对表现往往与全球风险偏好相伴随。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>He emphasized that Bitcoin historically performs best in risk-on environments and struggles when investors retreat into defensive positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他强调，比特币在风险偏好环境中表现最佳，而在投资者退回到防御性布局时则表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>Dragosch also highlighted a recurring market pattern: gold typically moves first, leading Bitcoin by four to seven months, after which Bitcoin tends to outperform on a percentage basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Dragosch 还强调了一个反复出现的市场模式：黄金通常首先上涨，领先比特币四到七个月，之后比特币往往在百分比上表现更佳。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Short-term weakness tests key technical levels</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>短期疲软测试关键技术水平</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin has slipped below its two-year simple moving average (SMA), a level that previously acted as a critical support zone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币已跌破其两年简单移动平均线（SMA），这一水平之前曾作为关键支撑区。</p>
</div><p>Holding below this threshold could expose the asset to further downside pressure if bearish momentum persists.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果持续低于这一阈值，可能会使该资产面临进一步的下行压力，尤其是在看跌动能持续的情况下。</p>
</div><p>However, history suggests this phase has often laid the foundation for major rallies. In previous cycles, dips below the two-year SMA coincided with prolonged accumulation by long-term investors ahead of broader bull markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，历史表明，这一阶段通常为重大反弹奠定基础。在之前的周期中，跌破两年 SMA 的情况与长期投资者的持续积累相吻合，随后迎来了更广泛的牛市。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0500.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/IMG_0500.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>This aligns with the prevailing narrative of a gradual capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin, one that could see large institutions and their clients quietly build positions before a renewed rally emerges, once again without a precise timeline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这与黄金向比特币的逐步资本轮换的主流叙事相符，这可能会看到大型机构及其客户在新一轮反弹出现之前悄然建立头寸，再次没有明确的时间表。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最后思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin stands to benefit if capital continues to rotate out of gold and into risk assets, though there is still no clear timeline for when this shift could meaningfully accelerate.</em></li>
<li><em>A combination of economic relief and a broader risk-on environment may ultimately provide the catalyst needed for a sustained upside move.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>如果资本继续从黄金转向风险资产，比特币将受益，尽管目前尚无明确的时间表来说明这一转变何时可能显著加速。</em></li>
<li><em>经济缓解和更广泛的风险偏好环境的结合，最终可能为持续上涨提供所需的催化剂。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Analyst warns of gold’s ‘buy climax’ as capital shifts toward Bitcoin

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ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

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CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

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Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

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VanEck Bitcoin ETF

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

山东黄金

嘉实比特币

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Block

分析师警告称，随着资本转向比特币，黄金可能正处于 ‘买入高潮’ 阶段