<p>TradingKey - 在连续几天上涨后，黄金和白银在 1 月 30 日星期五经历了最剧烈的单日下跌：黄金录得近 40 年来最大单日跌幅，最高下跌超过 12%，跌破 4900 美元；白银则创下历史上最大单日跌幅，一度暴跌超过 36%，跌破 85 美元水平。</p>
<p>在这次崩盘之前，黄金和白银的价格自 2026 年以来一直在飙升。黄金最高达到 5595 美元，距离 5600 美元的里程碑仅一步之遥，年初至今的最大涨幅接近 30%；白银则达到 121 美元，最高涨幅达到 70%。</p>
<p>分析师认为，贵金属的抛售是由于美联储主席提名引发的。东部时间星期五早上，唐纳德·特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席，消息在正式宣布之前就已泄露。此提名被视为对美联储抗通胀立场的强化。</p>
<p>然而，OCBC 的策略师克里斯托弗·黄表示，尽管沃什的提名是一个触发因素，但由于市场一直在寻找结束之前抛物线式上涨的理由，因此修正是不可避免的。</p>
<p>这次下跌仅仅是短期调整，还是贵金属牛市重大修正的开始？</p>
<h2>沃什的美联储提名助推美元，削弱贵金属吸引力</h2>
<p>尽管沃什已转向特朗普，期待他的第二个总统任期，批评美联储降息过慢并捍卫关税政策，但悉尼 ITC 市场的高级市场分析师肖恩·卡洛表示，市场很难忘记他长期以来的鹰派历史。</p>
<p>沃什在担任美联储理事期间的预测记录偏向鹰派，对通胀几乎零容忍；德意志银行认为他可能会采用独特的政策组合，同时降息和缩减资产负债表，以支持美元并对抗通胀。</p>
<p>他在政治言辞与经济观点之间的紧张关系指向一个悖论：一位美联储候选人在提名前可以公开支持特朗普，但在担任主席后却可以忽视他的压力并主张独立。现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔就是一个先例；当特朗普在他的第一任期提名鲍威尔时，他期望鲍威尔成为低利率的顺从倡导者。</p>
<p>彭博策略师布伦丹·法根指出，沃什的提名对面临上升风险溢价的美国市场是一个积极信号；简而言之，它降低了各类资产的风险溢价。</p>
<p>他表示，尽管提名不会立即改变美联储的货币政策，但它将缓解市场对中央银行独立性的担忧，因为市场对美联储可能屈服于政治压力或放弃抗通胀斗争的预期将显著降低，从而恢复信心并支持美元反弹。</p>
<p>根据他的政策观点，降息旨在避免衰退，通常会削弱美元；然而，他主张同时缩减资产负债表将抽走美元流动性，使货币更加稀缺，为美元升值提供催化剂。</p>
<p>围绕沃什的市场预期不仅增强了美元，还减少了经济政策的不确定性，创造了一个对以美元计价的商品（如黄金和白银）不利的环境，这些商品通常在不确定性中上涨。</p>
<h2>贵金属的回撤是否不可避免？</h2>
<p>正如 OCBC 策略师克里斯托弗·黄所说，黄金和白银的修正是不可避免的。自 2026 年以来，黄金上涨了约 30%，而白银则飙升了 70%。最近，随着黄金和白银价格屡创新高，相对强弱指数（RSI）显示它们已被超买。黄金的 RSI 最近触及 90，而白银的 RSI 甚至达到了 93.86，为 1980 年以来的最高水平。标准 Chartered 银行欧洲、非洲和中东地区首席投资官曼普里特·吉尔还指出，黄金与白银的比率最近接近约 31 的极低水平，这是自 2011 年以来的最低水平，历史上通常预示着整合期的开始。</p>
<p>此外，Yardeni Research 的总裁埃德·亚尔登指出，在黄金从 3000 美元飙升至 5500 美元的过程中，几乎没有经历过显著的修正。这并不是牛市的典型节奏，而更像是一个 “融化上涨”。融化上涨是指在非常短的时间内的抛物线式上涨，更多地由市场情绪和投机驱动。融化上涨也常常预示着峰值的临近。亚尔登表示，黄金回调至 5000 美元并随后在该水平附近整合构成了正常的市场模式。</p>
<p>然而，贵金属经销商 Silver Bullion 的创始人格雷戈尔·格雷戈森对最近的下跌表示质疑，指出星期五的交易时段在短时间内出现了大幅下跌，没有明显的公共催化剂。他表示，这可能不仅仅是简单的获利了结，可能涉及市场操纵。他解释说，如果机构打算锁定利润，通常会逐步减少其头寸。</p>
<h2>周期性高峰还是长期牛市？</h2>
<p>分析师普遍认为牛市远未结束。即使在黄金价格显著波动的情况下，瑞银（UBS）已大幅上调其 2026 年黄金价格目标：3 月、6 月和 9 月的目标被提高至 6200 美元，比之前 5000 美元的目标增加了 24%。</p>
<p>这主要是因为支撑此次上涨的结构性驱动因素依然强劲：地缘政治风险、财政不确定性和货币贬值担忧并未消失。尽管沃什已被提名，但许多问题仍远未解决。瑞银甚至大胆预测黄金的极端牛市情景：如果地缘政治紧张局势急剧升级，价格可能高达 7200 美元。</p>
<p>然而，一些分析表明，推动黄金价格上涨的核心因素并不复杂；投资者受到市场趋势的刺激，陷入了 “追逐反弹” 的情绪。</p>
<p>IG Group 的首席市场分析师 Chris Beauchamp 表示，黄金最近的惊人反弹必然会激发市场投资兴趣，但市场对其保值能力的估计实际上是被高估的，尤其是在短期内。通常，黄金作为避险资产；然而，当其月度涨幅接近 30% 时，它实际上变成了一种风险资产，因此不再作为保值工具。</p>
<p>此外，尽管由于政策方向和地缘政治因素，市场正在减少对美元资产的持有，转而青睐黄金等传统避险资产，但分析师普遍认为，美元在短期内不会失去全球储备货币的地位。</p>
<p>晨星的高级基金分析师 Kenneth Lamont 也同意这一观点：黄金并不是理想的保值工具，其价格高度不可预测，这也意味着法定货币的消亡远未迫在眉睫。</p>
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<p>黄金和白银在 1 月 30 日经历了显著的下跌，黄金下跌超过 12%，白银暴跌超过 36%。此次抛售是由于凯文·沃什被提名为美联储主席，进一步强化了反通胀的立场。分析师认为，由于市场处于超买状态，这一修正是不可避免的。虽然一些人将此次下跌视为贵金属可能出现的重大修正，但另一些人对快速下滑表示质疑，认为可能存在市场操纵的情况。这一局势为以美元计价的商品创造了看跌的环境，影响了它们的吸引力</p>

<p>TradingKey - After several consecutive days of gains, gold and silver experienced their sharpest single-day declines on Friday, January 30: Gold recorded its largest one-day drop in nearly 40 years, plunging over 12% at its peak and falling below $4,900; silver hit its largest-ever intraday decline, plummeting more than 36% at one point and breaking below the $85 level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingKey - 在连续几天上涨后，黄金和白银在 1 月 30 日星期五经历了最剧烈的单日下跌：黄金录得近 40 年来最大单日跌幅，最高下跌超过 12%，跌破 4900 美元；白银则创下历史上最大单日跌幅，一度暴跌超过 36%，跌破 85 美元水平。</p>
</div><p>Prior to this crash, gold and silver prices had been on a tear since 2026. Gold peaked at $5,595, just shy of the $5,600 milestone, with a maximum year-to-date gain of nearly 30%; silver reached a high of $121, with its peak gain hitting 70%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这次崩盘之前，黄金和白银的价格自 2026 年以来一直在飙升。黄金最高达到 5595 美元，距离 5600 美元的里程碑仅一步之遥，年初至今的最大涨幅接近 30%；白银则达到 121 美元，最高涨幅达到 70%。</p>
</div><p>Analysts believe the sell-off in precious metals was triggered by the nomination for Federal Reserve Chair. On Friday morning ET, Donald Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed, with news leaking even before the formal announcement. The nomination is viewed as a reinforcement of the Fed's anti-inflation stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师认为，贵金属的抛售是由于美联储主席提名引发的。东部时间星期五早上，唐纳德·特朗普正式提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席，消息在正式宣布之前就已泄露。此提名被视为对美联储抗通胀立场的强化。</p>
</div><p>However, OCBC strategist Christopher Wong stated that while news of Warsh's nomination was a trigger, a correction was already inevitable as the market had been searching for a reason to end the previous parabolic rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，OCBC 的策略师克里斯托弗·黄表示，尽管沃什的提名是一个触发因素，但由于市场一直在寻找结束之前抛物线式上涨的理由，因此修正是不可避免的。</p>
</div><p>Is this downturn merely a short-term adjustment, or does it mark the beginning of a major correction for the precious metals bull market?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这次下跌仅仅是短期调整，还是贵金属牛市重大修正的开始？</p>
</div><h2>Warsh’s Fed Nod Supercharges Greenback, Dents Bullion Appeal</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃什的美联储提名助推美元，削弱贵金属吸引力</h2>
</div><p>Although Warsh has pivoted to Trump in anticipation of his second presidential term, aligning with his positions by criticizing the Fed for being too slow to cut rates and defending tariff policies, Sean Callow, a senior market analyst at ITC Markets in Sydney, says the market finds it difficult to forget his long-standing hawkish history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管沃什已转向特朗普，期待他的第二个总统任期，批评美联储降息过慢并捍卫关税政策，但悉尼 ITC 市场的高级市场分析师肖恩·卡洛表示，市场很难忘记他长期以来的鹰派历史。</p>
</div><p>Warsh’s forecasting record during his time as a Fed Governor skewed hawkish with a near-zero tolerance for inflation; Deutsche Bank believes he is likely to employ a unique policy mix of simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction to support the dollar while countering inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什在担任美联储理事期间的预测记录偏向鹰派，对通胀几乎零容忍；德意志银行认为他可能会采用独特的政策组合，同时降息和缩减资产负债表，以支持美元并对抗通胀。</p>
</div><p>The tension between his political rhetoric and economic views points to a paradox: a Fed candidate can vocally support Trump prior to a nomination, yet ignore his pressure and assert independence once in the chairman’s seat. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell serves as a precedent; when Trump nominated him in his first term, he expected Powell to be a compliant advocate for low interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他在政治言辞与经济观点之间的紧张关系指向一个悖论：一位美联储候选人在提名前可以公开支持特朗普，但在担任主席后却可以忽视他的压力并主张独立。现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔就是一个先例；当特朗普在他的第一任期提名鲍威尔时，他期望鲍威尔成为低利率的顺从倡导者。</p>
</div><p>Bloomberg strategist Brendan Fagan noted that Warsh’s nomination is a positive signal for U.S. markets facing rising risk premiums; in short, it reduces the risk premium across various asset classes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>彭博策略师布伦丹·法根指出，沃什的提名对面临上升风险溢价的美国市场是一个积极信号；简而言之，它降低了各类资产的风险溢价。</p>
</div><p>He stated that while the nomination would not immediately alter the Fed’s monetary policy, it would soothe market concerns regarding central bank independence, as expectations that the Fed might bow to political pressure or abandon its inflation fight would diminish significantly, restoring confidence and supporting a dollar rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，尽管提名不会立即改变美联储的货币政策，但它将缓解市场对中央银行独立性的担忧，因为市场对美联储可能屈服于政治压力或放弃抗通胀斗争的预期将显著降低，从而恢复信心并支持美元反弹。</p>
</div><p>Based on his policy views, rate cuts are intended to stave off recession and would typically weaken the dollar; however, his advocacy for simultaneous balance sheet reduction would drain dollar liquidity, making the currency scarcer and providing a catalyst for the greenback’s appreciation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据他的政策观点，降息旨在避免衰退，通常会削弱美元；然而，他主张同时缩减资产负债表将抽走美元流动性，使货币更加稀缺，为美元升值提供催化剂。</p>
</div><p>Market expectations surrounding Warsh have not only bolstered the dollar but also reduced economic policy uncertainty, creating a bearish environment for dollar-denominated commodities like gold and silver that typically rally on uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>围绕沃什的市场预期不仅增强了美元，还减少了经济政策的不确定性，创造了一个对以美元计价的商品（如黄金和白银）不利的环境，这些商品通常在不确定性中上涨。</p>
</div><h2>Was a Precious Metals Retrenchment Inevitable?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>贵金属的回撤是否不可避免？</h2>
</div><p>As OCBC strategist Christopher Wong stated, a correction in gold and silver was inevitable. Since 2026, gold has gained as much as approximately 30%, while silver has surged by 70%. Recently, as gold and silver prices repeatedly hit new highs, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated they were overbought. Gold's RSI recently touched 90, and silver's RSI even reached 93.86, its highest level since 1980. Manpreet Gill, Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank, also noted that the gold-to-silver ratio recently approached an extreme low of around 31, a level last seen in 2011, which historically signals the onset of a consolidation period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如 OCBC 策略师克里斯托弗·黄所说，黄金和白银的修正是不可避免的。自 2026 年以来，黄金上涨了约 30%，而白银则飙升了 70%。最近，随着黄金和白银价格屡创新高，相对强弱指数（RSI）显示它们已被超买。黄金的 RSI 最近触及 90，而白银的 RSI 甚至达到了 93.86，为 1980 年以来的最高水平。标准 Chartered 银行欧洲、非洲和中东地区首席投资官曼普里特·吉尔还指出，黄金与白银的比率最近接近约 31 的极低水平，这是自 2011 年以来的最低水平，历史上通常预示着整合期的开始。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, pointed out that during gold's previous surge from $3,000 to $5,500, it experienced almost no significant correction. This is not the typical pace of a bull market but rather resembles a &#34;melt-up.&#34; A melt-up refers to a parabolic rise over a very short period, driven more by market sentiment and speculation. Melt-ups also frequently signal that a peak is approaching. Yardeni stated that gold's correction back to $5,000 and subsequent consolidation around that level constitutes a normal market pattern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Yardeni Research 的总裁埃德·亚尔登指出，在黄金从 3000 美元飙升至 5500 美元的过程中，几乎没有经历过显著的修正。这并不是牛市的典型节奏，而更像是一个 “融化上涨”。融化上涨是指在非常短的时间内的抛物线式上涨，更多地由市场情绪和投机驱动。融化上涨也常常预示着峰值的临近。亚尔登表示，黄金回调至 5000 美元并随后在该水平附近整合构成了正常的市场模式。</p>
</div><p>However, Gregor Gregersen, founder of precious metals dealer Silver Bullion, questioned the recent downturn, noting that Friday's session saw a massive plunge in a very short time without any obvious public catalysts. He suggested this might not be simple profit-taking and could potentially involve market manipulation. He explained that if institutions intended to lock in profits, they would typically reduce their positions gradually.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，贵金属经销商 Silver Bullion 的创始人格雷戈尔·格雷戈森对最近的下跌表示质疑，指出星期五的交易时段在短时间内出现了大幅下跌，没有明显的公共催化剂。他表示，这可能不仅仅是简单的获利了结，可能涉及市场操纵。他解释说，如果机构打算锁定利润，通常会逐步减少其头寸。</p>
</div><h2>Cyclical Peak or Secular Bull?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>周期性高峰还是长期牛市？</h2>
</div><p>Analysts generally believe the bull market is far from over. Even amid significant volatility in gold prices, UBS (UBS) has significantly raised its 2026 gold price targets: the targets for March, June, and September were hiked to $6,200, a 24% increase from the previous target of $5,000 per ounce.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师普遍认为牛市远未结束。即使在黄金价格显著波动的情况下，瑞银（UBS）已大幅上调其 2026 年黄金价格目标：3 月、6 月和 9 月的目标被提高至 6200 美元，比之前 5000 美元的目标增加了 24%。</p>
</div><p>This is primarily because the structural drivers behind this rally remain robust: geopolitical risks, fiscal uncertainty, and currency devaluation concerns have not disappeared. Even though Warsh has been nominated, many matters remain far from settled. UBS even boldly predicted an extreme bull-case scenario for gold: if geopolitical tensions escalate sharply, prices could reach as high as $7,200.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这主要是因为支撑此次上涨的结构性驱动因素依然强劲：地缘政治风险、财政不确定性和货币贬值担忧并未消失。尽管沃什已被提名，但许多问题仍远未解决。瑞银甚至大胆预测黄金的极端牛市情景：如果地缘政治紧张局势急剧升级，价格可能高达 7200 美元。</p>
</div><p>However, some analyses suggest a different perspective: the core factors driving gold prices higher are not that complex; it is simply that investors, spurred by market trends, have fallen into a 'chase the rally' sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，一些分析表明，推动黄金价格上涨的核心因素并不复杂；投资者受到市场趋势的刺激，陷入了 “追逐反弹” 的情绪。</p>
</div><p>Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG Group, stated that gold's recent stunning rally will inevitably ignite market investment interest, but its store-of-value capability is actually overestimated by the market, especially in the short term. Normally, gold acts as a safe-haven asset; however, when its monthly gain approaches 30%, it effectively becomes a risk asset and thus no longer functions as a store of value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IG Group 的首席市场分析师 Chris Beauchamp 表示，黄金最近的惊人反弹必然会激发市场投资兴趣，但市场对其保值能力的估计实际上是被高估的，尤其是在短期内。通常，黄金作为避险资产；然而，当其月度涨幅接近 30% 时，它实际上变成了一种风险资产，因此不再作为保值工具。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, although the market is reducing holdings of US dollar assets in favor of traditional safe havens like gold due to policy directions and geopolitical factors, analysts generally believe the dollar will not lose its status as the global reserve currency in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，尽管由于政策方向和地缘政治因素，市场正在减少对美元资产的持有，转而青睐黄金等传统避险资产，但分析师普遍认为，美元在短期内不会失去全球储备货币的地位。</p>
</div><p>Kenneth Lamont, Senior Fund Analyst at Morningstar, also concurs with this view: gold is not an ideal store of value, and its price is highly unpredictable, which also means the demise of fiat currency is far from imminent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>晨星的高级基金分析师 Kenneth Lamont 也同意这一观点：黄金并不是理想的保值工具，其价格高度不可预测，这也意味着法定货币的消亡远未迫在眉睫。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解更多</p>
</div>

Precious Metals Bloodbath: Silver’s Worst Day in History as Gold Plunges Most in 40 Years—Is the Bull Run Over?

- 1 月 30 日，黄金和白银经历最大单日跌幅，黄金下跌超过 12%。  
- 抛售原因是美联储主席提名引发市场反应，分析指出短期调整可能不可避免。  
- 尽管波动，分析师预计黄金长期牛市未结束，地缘政治风险仍然支撑价格。

TradingKey

黄金 ETF - iShares

金矿股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

黄金 ETF - SPDR

黄金和贵金属矿商 ETF - U.S. Global

紫金矿业

山东黄金

Sprott PHYs Silver

大宗商品指数 ETF - iShares

2 倍做多白银 ETF - ProShares

中金黄金

德银贵金属基金 - PowerShares

全球黄金矿业股 MSCI ETF - iShares

黄金勘探商 ETF - GlobalX

2 倍做多黄金 ETF - ProShares

白银信托 ETF - iShares

贵金属股 ETF -ETFS

彭博全部商品策略 K-1 免费 ETF - ETFS

纽蒙特矿业

Kinross Gold

Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF

金矿小盘股 ETF - VanEck Vectors

Harbor Commodity All Weather Strategy ETF

Gold.com

阿尼科伊格尔矿业

实物白银股票 ETF - ETFS

Sprott Silver Mnrs & Physical Silver ETF

实物黄金股 ETF - ETFS

大宗商品最优化收益 ETF - PowerShares

贵金属市场遭遇重创：白银经历历史上最糟糕的一天，黄金创下 40 年来最大跌幅——牛市是否已经结束？