<p>标准普尔期货在财报潮和就业数据测试前小幅下跌</p><p>日经指数罕见上涨，民调显示自民党可能获胜</p><p>金银交易波动剧烈，周五暴跌后市场紧张</p><p>美元暂时企稳，日元下滑</p><p>作者：Wayne Cole</p><p>悉尼，2 月 2 日（路透社）- 周一，亚洲股市大多跟随华尔街期货下跌，因银市的混乱交易使得这一周的开局紧张，而这一周将有大量企业财报、中央银行会议和重要经济数据发布。</p><p>银价（XAG=）一度再跌 5%，因周五 30% 的暴跌挤压了杠杆头寸，导致市场变得非常拥挤。交易员还指出，瑞银 SDIC 银期货基金在中国的交易暂停也是暴跌的原因之一。由于特朗普总统在周末表示伊朗与华盛顿 “认真对话”，可能降低了美国对该国进行军事打击的风险，油价也下跌近 3%。</p><p>这种紧张情绪使得 MSCI 亚太地区（不包括日本）股票指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）下跌 0.7%，韩国股市（.KS11）下跌 1.0%。日本的日经指数（.N225）则罕见上涨 0.7%，因民调显示首相高市早苗的自民党在下周的众议院选举中可能获得压倒性胜利。这样的胜利可能会使推动激进刺激政策变得更容易，同时也缓解整体的政治不确定性。更多的债务融资支出可能会对债券和日元施加压力，高市早苗也在强调弱势货币对出口的好处。</p><p>本周欧洲的财报也非常繁忙，约 30% 的欧元区 STOXX 市场市值将发布财报。EUROSTOXX 50 期货（STXEc1）和 DAX 期货（FDXc1）均下跌 0.1%，而 FTSE 期货（FFIc1）则保持稳定。</p><p>标准普尔 500 期货（ESc1）下跌 0.2%，纳斯达克期货（NQc1）下跌 0.4%，约四分之一的标准普尔 500 成分股将在本周发布财报。标准普尔 500 的每股收益增长率为 11%，而市场普遍预期为 7%。</p><p>市场的关注将集中在科技巨头 Alphabet（GOOG.O）、亚马逊（AMZN.O）和 AMD（AMD.O）上，特别是在微软（MSFT.O）发布的结果不佳后，AI 的成本和收益。</p><p>高盛的分析师指出，今年对 AI 超级计算商资本支出的共识预期已上升至 5610 亿美元，比 2025 年增长 38%，而在财报季开始时的预期为 5400 亿美元。</p><h3>美元暂时企稳</h3><p>在货币市场，美元在周五反弹 1% 后，兑欧元的汇率略微企稳，报 1.1847 美元（EUR=EBS）。这得益于日元的普遍疲软，日元兑美元上涨 0.3%，报 155.17 日元（JPY=EBS）。这一反弹最初是由于特朗普选择前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任下一任中央银行行长。</p><p>分析师认为，沃什比其他一些可能的候选人更不可能推动全面快速降息，尽管他听起来比现任主席鲍威尔更温和。</p><p>“如果特朗普不真正支持降低利率，他最不可能提名沃什，而沃什相信经济可以实现更高的非通胀性增长，这一点有很多证据，” NAB 外汇策略主管 Ray Attrill 表示。</p><p>这就是为什么市场定价仍然预期今年将有两次降息，预计在沃什担任主席的情况下，降息不太可能在 6 月之前发生。期货市场暗示 4 月会议上保持利率不变的概率为 68%，而奇怪的是，6 月降息的概率也为 68%。 (0#USDIRPR)</p><p>如果周五的 1 月就业报告在任何方向上出现重大意外，这一前景可能会改变，前提是政府开放并且报告确实发布。此外，本周还有澳大利亚储备银行、欧洲中央银行和英格兰银行的政策会议。</p><p>澳大利亚储备银行是一个特例，市场预计其加息 25 个基点至 3.85% 的概率约为 75%，以逆转去年实施的三次降息，试图遏制复苏的通胀。</p><p>在商品市场，波动性是主要主题，黄金下跌 1.4%，报每盎司 4807 美元（XAU=），周五几乎下跌了 10%。在早期暴跌后，银价稳定在 84.62 美元（XAG=），但交易极为波动。 (GOL/)</p><p>油价下跌，投资者焦急等待美国是否会对伊朗采取军事行动，或者是否能达成某种协议。 (O/R)</p><p>布伦特原油（LCOc1）下跌 2.7%，报每桶 67.46 美元，而美国原油（CLc1）下跌 2.8%，报每桶 63.38 美元。</p>

湖南白银

<p>亚洲股市开盘走低，跟随华尔街期货，因银价波动和即将公布的企业财报引发市场不安。银价大幅下跌，加剧了市场紧张情绪。日本的日经指数则因政治稳定前景而上涨。美元对欧元和日元保持稳定，受到美国利率政策潜在变化的影响。由于与伊朗的地缘政治紧张局势持续，油价下跌。本周对财报至关重要，主要公司如 Alphabet 和 Amazon 备受关注，同时中央银行会议可能影响市场动态</p>

<p>S&amp;P futures dip ahead of earnings deluge, payrolls test</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔期货在财报潮和就业数据测试前小幅下跌</p>
</div><p>Nikkei rare gainer as polls point to LDP majority win</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日经指数罕见上涨，民调显示自民党可能获胜</p>
</div><p>Gold, silver trading choppy after Friday’s rout</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金银交易波动剧烈，周五暴跌后市场紧张</p>
</div><p>Dollar steadies for the moment, yen slips</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元暂时企稳，日元下滑</p>
</div><p>By Wayne Cole</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Wayne Cole</p>
</div><p>SYDNEY, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Asian share markets mostly followed Wall Street futures lower on Monday as chaotic trading in silver made for a nervous start to a week that is packed with corporate earnings, central bank meetings and major economic data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>悉尼，2 月 2 日（路透社）- 周一，亚洲股市大多跟随华尔街期货下跌，因银市的混乱交易使得这一周的开局紧张，而这一周将有大量企业财报、中央银行会议和重要经济数据发布。</p>
</div><p>Silver (XAG=) lost another 5% at one stage, as Friday’s 30% plunge squeezed leveraged positions in what had become a very crowded trade. Dealers also pointed to a halt in trading of the UBS SDIC silver futures fund in China as one cause of the rout. Oil prices also fell by almost 3% as President Donald Trump said over the weekend Iran was “seriously talking” with Washington, perhaps lessening the risk of a U.S. military strike on the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价（XAG=）一度再跌 5%，因周五 30% 的暴跌挤压了杠杆头寸，导致市场变得非常拥挤。交易员还指出，瑞银 SDIC 银期货基金在中国的交易暂停也是暴跌的原因之一。由于特朗普总统在周末表示伊朗与华盛顿 “认真对话”，可能降低了美国对该国进行军事打击的风险，油价也下跌近 3%。</p>
</div><p>The jitters saw MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) ease 0.7%, with South Korea (.KS11) down 1.0%. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) was a rare gainer, adding 0.7% as opinion polls suggested Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party was likely to score a landslide victory in next week’s lower house election. Such a victory would likely make it easier to push through aggressive stimulus policies, while also easing political uncertainty in general. More debt-funded spending could pressure bonds and the yen, with Takaichi talking up the benefits of a weaker currency for exports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种紧张情绪使得 MSCI 亚太地区（不包括日本）股票指数（.MIAPJ0000PUS）下跌 0.7%，韩国股市（.KS11）下跌 1.0%。日本的日经指数（.N225）则罕见上涨 0.7%，因民调显示首相高市早苗的自民党在下周的众议院选举中可能获得压倒性胜利。这样的胜利可能会使推动激进刺激政策变得更容易，同时也缓解整体的政治不确定性。更多的债务融资支出可能会对债券和日元施加压力，高市早苗也在强调弱势货币对出口的好处。</p>
</div><p>It was also a busy week for earnings in Europe, with around 30% of Euro STOXX market capitalisation due to report. EUROSTOXX 50 futures (STXEc1) and DAX futures (FDXc1) both eased 0.1%, while FTSE futures (FFIc1) held steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周欧洲的财报也非常繁忙，约 30% 的欧元区 STOXX 市场市值将发布财报。EUROSTOXX 50 期货（STXEc1）和 DAX 期货（FDXc1）均下跌 0.1%，而 FTSE 期货（FFIc1）则保持稳定。</p>
</div><p>S&amp;P 500 futures (ESc1) dipped 0.2% and Nasdaq futures (NQc1) fell 0.4%, with about one quarter of the S&amp;P 500 set to report this week. Growth in S&amp;P 500 earnings per share is running at 11% on the previous year, when consensus had been for 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 期货（ESc1）下跌 0.2%，纳斯达克期货（NQc1）下跌 0.4%，约四分之一的标准普尔 500 成分股将在本周发布财报。标准普尔 500 的每股收益增长率为 11%，而市场普遍预期为 7%。</p>
</div><p>The focus will be on tech majors Alphabet (GOOG.O) , Amazon (AMZN.O) and AMD (AMD.O) , particularly costs and benefits of AI in the wake of Microsoft’s (MSFT.O) badly received results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场的关注将集中在科技巨头 Alphabet（GOOG.O）、亚马逊（AMZN.O）和 AMD（AMD.O）上，特别是在微软（MSFT.O）发布的结果不佳后，AI 的成本和收益。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted consensus estimates for AI hyperscaler capex this year had climbed to $561 billion, up 38% on 2025 and compared to $540 billion expected at the start of earnings season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛的分析师指出，今年对 AI 超级计算商资本支出的共识预期已上升至 5610 亿美元，比 2025 年增长 38%，而在财报季开始时的预期为 5400 亿美元。</p>
</div><h3>DOLLAR STEADIES FOR NOW</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元暂时企稳</h3>
</div><p>In currencies, the dollar looked a little steadier at $1.1847 per euro (EUR=EBS) after Friday’s 1% bounce. It was aided by broad weakness in the yen, which saw it edge up 0.3% to 155.17 yen (JPY=EBS) . The rally had been initially triggered by Trump’s choice of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to become the next chair of the central bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在货币市场，美元在周五反弹 1% 后，兑欧元的汇率略微企稳，报 1.1847 美元（EUR=EBS）。这得益于日元的普遍疲软，日元兑美元上涨 0.3%，报 155.17 日元（JPY=EBS）。这一反弹最初是由于特朗普选择前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任下一任中央银行行长。</p>
</div><p>Analysts assumed Warsh was less likely to press for all-out rapid rate cuts than some other possible choices, though he has sounded more dovish than current chair Jerome Powell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师认为，沃什比其他一些可能的候选人更不可能推动全面快速降息，尽管他听起来比现任主席鲍威尔更温和。</p>
</div><p>“Trump is most unlikely to have nominated Warsh if he was not genuinely supportive of lower interest rates, and for which there is plenty of evidence Warsh believes that the economy can achieve higher rates of non-inflationary growth,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果特朗普不真正支持降低利率，他最不可能提名沃什，而沃什相信经济可以实现更高的非通胀性增长，这一点有很多证据，” NAB 外汇策略主管 Ray Attrill 表示。</p>
</div><p>Which was why market pricing remained at two rate cuts for this year, with a move seen unlikely until June when, presumably, Warsh will be chair. Futures imply a 68% chance of a steady outcome at the April meeting and, oddly, 68% for an easing in June. (0#USDIRPR)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么市场定价仍然预期今年将有两次降息，预计在沃什担任主席的情况下，降息不太可能在 6 月之前发生。期货市场暗示 4 月会议上保持利率不变的概率为 68%，而奇怪的是，6 月降息的概率也为 68%。 (0#USDIRPR)</p>
</div><p>That outlook may change should the January payrolls report on Friday surprise significantly in either direction, assuming the government is open and it is actually released. Also on the menu this week are policy meetings by the Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank and Bank of England.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果周五的 1 月就业报告在任何方向上出现重大意外，这一前景可能会改变，前提是政府开放并且报告确实发布。此外，本周还有澳大利亚储备银行、欧洲中央银行和英格兰银行的政策会议。</p>
</div><p>The RBA is an outlier in that markets imply around a 75% chance it will raise interest rates by a quarter point to 3.85%, so reversing one of three cuts delivered last year, in an attempt to quell resurgent inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亚储备银行是一个特例，市场预计其加息 25 个基点至 3.85% 的概率约为 75%，以逆转去年实施的三次降息，试图遏制复苏的通胀。</p>
</div><p>In commodity markets, volatility was the main theme as gold fell 1.4% to $4,807 an ounce (XAU=) , having shed almost 10% on Friday. After an early dive, silver steadied at $84.62 (XAG=) but trade was extremely choppy. (GOL/)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在商品市场，波动性是主要主题，黄金下跌 1.4%，报每盎司 4807 美元（XAU=），周五几乎下跌了 10%。在早期暴跌后，银价稳定在 84.62 美元（XAG=），但交易极为波动。 (GOL/)</p>
</div><p>Oil prices fell as investors waited anxiously to see whether the U.S. would strike Iran, or some sort of deal could be struck. (O/R)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>油价下跌，投资者焦急等待美国是否会对伊朗采取军事行动，或者是否能达成某种协议。 (O/R)</p>
</div><p>Brent (LCOc1) slid 2.7% to $67.46 a barrel, while U.S. crude (CLc1) dropped 2.8% to $63.38 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布伦特原油（LCOc1）下跌 2.7%，报每桶 67.46 美元，而美国原油（CLc1）下跌 2.8%，报每桶 63.38 美元。</p>
</div>

全球市场——金属价格剧烈波动，亚洲股市表现不稳，财报季即将来临