<p>[伦敦] 在白银市场的历史上，价格在去年之前仅在少数短暂时期内交易超过每盎司 40 美元。上周五（1 月 30 日），疲惫的交易员们震惊地目睹这贵金属在不到二十小时内暴跌如此之多。</p>
<p>几周以来，全球金属交易员们夜以继日地盯着屏幕，因为从黄金到铜和锡的价格似乎摆脱了供需基本面的重力，受到来自中国投机者的热钱推动而上涨。</p>
<p>然后，仅仅几个小时内，这一涨势逆转，演变为商品市场上最戏剧性的崩盘之一。周五白银暴跌 26% 创下历史最大跌幅，而黄金则在十多年来最糟糕的一天中下跌了 9%。铜价在突破每吨 14,500 美元后迅速回落，交易员们已经感到震惊。</p>
<p>“在我的职业生涯中，这绝对是我见过的最疯狂的情况，” 赫拉乌斯贵金属的交易主管 Dominik Sperzel 表示。“黄金是稳定的象征，但这样的波动并不是稳定的象征。”</p>
<p>虽然周五崩盘的导火索是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普计划提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席的消息，这使得美元上涨，但许多人早已警告金属市场过度膨胀，应该进行修正，经过几周的持续上涨后，市场确实需要调整。然而，价格下跌的速度和幅度令人瞩目，尤其是对于像黄金这样的大型流动市场。</p>
<p>欧洲和美国的金属交易员们一直在加班加点工作，不愿错过亚洲交易日，因为许多剧烈波动发生在那个时段，甚至在长途飞行中也在疯狂交易。在上周德国举行的全球最大硬币会议上，执行官们静静地盯着手机，默默观看危机的展开。</p>
<p>“抛物线式的”、“疯狂的” 和 “无法交易的”，都是 MKS PAMP 金属战略主管 Nicky Shiels 对周五市场的描述。她表示，2026 年 1 月将被记载为 “贵金属历史上最动荡的一个月。”</p>
<h2>疯狂的节奏</h2>
<p>黄金的上涨已经持续了数年，中央银行将其作为对美元的替代品而扩大持有量，去年随着西方投资者涌入所谓的贬值交易而加速。</p>
<p>但最近几周，涨幅变得更加疯狂，受到中国投机者的购买潮推动，从个人投资者到大型股权基金纷纷进入商品市场，推动金属价格从铜到白银创下新高。随着价格飙升，跟随趋势的商品交易顾问纷纷入场，为这一涨势增添了更多泡沫。</p>
<p>“我们大约在三四周前就已经识别出这变成了一种动量交易，而不是基本面交易，” 对冲基金基础设施资本顾问公司的首席投资官 Jay Hatfield 表示。“我们只是顺势而为，等待这种情况的发生。”</p>
<p>随着对美联储独立性的担忧以及从委内瑞拉到伊朗的地缘政治对抗占据头条，金属的上涨成为一些投资者对美元日益不信任的象征。随着金属的上涨势头吸引了越来越多的买家，黄金和白银的热潮席卷了从中国到德国的购物者，场面让人想起 1979 年至 1980 年，现代历史上唯一一次市场出现如此剧烈的价格波动。</p>
<p>“我们在某些条形尺寸上已经提前几周售罄，但人们仍然在购买，” 赫拉乌斯的 Sperzel 表示，他说他的公司正在以最大产能运作以满足需求。“人们在这些商店前排队几个小时以购买产品。”</p>
<p>价格波动在白银市场上最为剧烈，这是一个相对较小的市场，按当前价格计算，年供应量仅为 980 亿美元，而黄金的年供应量为 7870 亿美元。</p>
<p>上周五，iShares Silver Trust，即以白银为支持的最大交易所交易基金（ETF），其交易量超过 400 亿美元。这使其成为全球交易量最大的证券之一，而几个月前其交易量很少超过 20 亿美元。</p>
<p>期权交易的活动同样热烈，近年来在零售交易者中越来越受欢迎。</p>
<p>一些投资者将其视为押注市场上涨的廉价方式，Reddit 小组上的帖子显示，押注白银快速上涨可以获得超过 1000% 的收益。最近几周，最大的黄金和白银 ETF 在看涨期权方面都创下了记录的未平仓合约和交易量，而 SLV 的看涨期权交易量超过了跟踪纳斯达克 100 指数的主要 ETF。</p>
<p>当未平仓的看涨期权数量众多时，就为挤压创造了条件，因为交易商在价格开始上涨时急于通过购买基础资产来对冲他们的头寸，从而进一步推动价格波动。</p>
<p>“随着我们被挤压上涨，他们必须机械性地不断购买更多，” Bridgewater Associates 前商品主管 Alexander Campbell 表示。“这就解释了为什么我们上涨如此之快，跌落也如此之快。”</p>
<p>特朗普在周二晚上表示，承压的美元 “表现很好” 的评论引发了最后一波金属购买热潮，推动价格创下新高。到周四，黄金达到了每盎司 5,595 美元，白银超过 121 美元，铜价达到了 14,527.50 美元。</p>
<p>反转的第一个迹象出现在周四晚些时候，当美国市场开盘时，美元转强，黄金突然暴跌，在短短十分钟内一度下跌超过 200 美元。</p>
<p>价格短暂稳定，但随后彭博社和其他新闻机构报道特朗普计划提名沃什为下一任美联储主席。此前，亚洲早盘交易通常会推动价格上涨——而迷迷糊糊的欧洲交易员对此感到惊讶——这一次，中国投资者选择了获利了结。周五戏剧性崩盘的种子已经埋下。</p>
<p>“中国抛售，现在我们正在承受后果，” 坎贝尔说道。</p>
<p>接下来可能再次取决于中国。投资者将密切关注周日晚上纽约时间上海开盘时，看看中国对金属的需求是否能在震荡抛售后恢复。中国交易所对各种银合约的每日价格波动限制在 16% 到 19% 之间，这意味着上海的价格可能需要追赶。</p>
<p>尽管如此，在中国农历新年之前的回调，作为一个传统的购买季节，可能提供了一个入场点，错过上涨的散户投资者正等待入场。根据交易员的说法，在主要的贵金属交易中心水贝，银的紧张局势有所缓解，周末卖出量超过买入量。但没有恐慌性抛售的迹象，水贝的银价仍然高于交易所合约的价格。</p>
<p>随着散户兴趣的降温，几家中国银行在周五宣布采取新措施，以遏制与散户黄金积累产品相关的风险，此前一年内已采取了一系列类似措施。</p>
<p>中国建设银行表示，将从周一起提高最低存款金额，并敦促投资者增强风险意识，而中国工商银行则表示将在假期期间对其如意黄金储蓄服务实施配额控制。交易所也采取了一些措施，可能会抑制全球金属市场的广泛上涨。</p>
<p>“黄金相对强劲；我看到过去两天有很多抄底买家在农历新年前购买珠宝和金条，” 交易商深圳国兴贵金属的风险负责人刘顺敏说道。“而对于银，强烈倾向于观望。” 彭博社</p>

<p>中国投机者对近期黄金和白银价格的暴跌产生了显著影响，白银在一天内暴跌 26%，黄金下跌 9%。这一剧烈变化发生在一段由投机驱动的疯狂交易之后，尤其是来自中国投资者的投机。市场曾因需求增加和对美元的不信任而经历了一波上涨，但迅速的反转让交易者感到震惊。贵金属市场的波动性被认为是前所未有的，ETF 和期权的交易量创下纪录，反映出市场的混乱状况</p>

<p>[LONDON] In the history of the silver market, prices had traded above US$40 an ounce for only a handful of brief periods before last year. On Friday (Jan 30), exhausted traders watched in shock as the precious metal plunged by that much in less than twenty hours.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[伦敦] 在白银市场的历史上，价格在去年之前仅在少数短暂时期内交易超过每盎司 40 美元。上周五（1 月 30 日），疲惫的交易员们震惊地目睹这贵金属在不到二十小时内暴跌如此之多。</p>
</div><p>For weeks, traders across the metals world have spent their nights glued to screens as prices for everything from gold to copper and tin seemed to break free from the gravity of supply and demand fundamentals, spurred higher on a wave of hot money from speculators in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几周以来，全球金属交易员们夜以继日地盯着屏幕，因为从黄金到铜和锡的价格似乎摆脱了供需基本面的重力，受到来自中国投机者的热钱推动而上涨。</p>
</div><p>And then, in just a few hours, the rally reversed into one of the most dramatic crashes ever seen in commodity markets. Silver’s 26 per cent plunge on Friday was the biggest on record, while gold dropped 9 per cent in its worst day in more than a decade. Copper traders were already reeling after a sudden spike past US$14,500 a tonne that unravelled just as fast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后，仅仅几个小时内，这一涨势逆转，演变为商品市场上最戏剧性的崩盘之一。周五白银暴跌 26% 创下历史最大跌幅，而黄金则在十多年来最糟糕的一天中下跌了 9%。铜价在突破每吨 14,500 美元后迅速回落，交易员们已经感到震惊。</p>
</div><p>“In my career, it’s definitely the wildest that I have seen,” said Dominik Sperzel, the head of trading at Heraeus Precious Metals, a leading bullion refiner. “Gold, it’s a symbol of stability, but such a move is not a symbol of stability.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在我的职业生涯中，这绝对是我见过的最疯狂的情况，” 赫拉乌斯贵金属的交易主管 Dominik Sperzel 表示。“黄金是稳定的象征，但这样的波动并不是稳定的象征。”</p>
</div><p>While the trigger for Friday’s crash was the news that US President Donald Trump planned to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which sent the dollar higher, many had been warning that the metals markets were overstretched and due for a correction following weeks of relentless surges. Still, the speed and scale of the drop was breathtaking, particularly for a market as large and liquid as gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然周五崩盘的导火索是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普计划提名凯文·沃什担任美联储主席的消息，这使得美元上涨，但许多人早已警告金属市场过度膨胀，应该进行修正，经过几周的持续上涨后，市场确实需要调整。然而，价格下跌的速度和幅度令人瞩目，尤其是对于像黄金这样的大型流动市场。</p>
</div><p>Metals traders in Europe and the US have been working around the clock, unwilling to miss the Asian trading day when many of the sharpest moves have taken place, and even frantically trading through long-distance flights. At the world’s biggest coin conference taking place in Germany last week, executives stood staring at their phones, watching in silence as the crisis unfolded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧洲和美国的金属交易员们一直在加班加点工作，不愿错过亚洲交易日，因为许多剧烈波动发生在那个时段，甚至在长途飞行中也在疯狂交易。在上周德国举行的全球最大硬币会议上，执行官们静静地盯着手机，默默观看危机的展开。</p>
</div><p>“Parabolic,” “frenzied” and “untradeable”, were all descriptions of the market on Friday, wrote Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP. January 2026, she said, would go down as “the most volatile month in precious metals history.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“抛物线式的”、“疯狂的” 和 “无法交易的”，都是 MKS PAMP 金属战略主管 Nicky Shiels 对周五市场的描述。她表示，2026 年 1 月将被记载为 “贵金属历史上最动荡的一个月。”</p>
</div><h2>Frenzied pace</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>疯狂的节奏</h2>
</div><p>Gold’s rally has been building for a number of years, as central banks expanded their holdings as an alternative to the US dollar, and accelerated last year as western investors piled into the so-called debasement trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金的上涨已经持续了数年，中央银行将其作为对美元的替代品而扩大持有量，去年随着西方投资者涌入所谓的贬值交易而加速。</p>
</div><p>But the gains have taken on a more frenzied pace in recent weeks, driven by a wave of buying from Chinese speculators, from individual investors to large equity funds venturing into commodities, that has lifted metals from copper to silver to fresh records. As prices surged, trend-following commodity trading advisors piled in, adding more froth to the rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最近几周，涨幅变得更加疯狂，受到中国投机者的购买潮推动，从个人投资者到大型股权基金纷纷进入商品市场，推动金属价格从铜到白银创下新高。随着价格飙升，跟随趋势的商品交易顾问纷纷入场，为这一涨势增添了更多泡沫。</p>
</div><p>“We had identified about three or four weeks ago that it turned into a momentum trade, not a fundamental trade,” said Jay Hatfield, chief investment officer at hedge fund Infrastructure Capital Advisors. “We were just riding it, waiting for this type of thing to happen.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们大约在三四周前就已经识别出这变成了一种动量交易，而不是基本面交易，” 对冲基金基础设施资本顾问公司的首席投资官 Jay Hatfield 表示。“我们只是顺势而为，等待这种情况的发生。”</p>
</div><p>With concerns over the independence of the Fed and geopolitical confrontations from Venezuela to Iran capturing the headlines, the rally in metals became a symbol of some investors’ growing distrust of the US dollar. As metals’ upwards momentum drew more and more buyers, gold and silver fever gripped shoppers from China to Germany, in scenes reminiscent of 1979 to 1980, the only other time in modern history that the markets have seen such dramatic swings in price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着对美联储独立性的担忧以及从委内瑞拉到伊朗的地缘政治对抗占据头条，金属的上涨成为一些投资者对美元日益不信任的象征。随着金属的上涨势头吸引了越来越多的买家，黄金和白银的热潮席卷了从中国到德国的购物者，场面让人想起 1979 年至 1980 年，现代历史上唯一一次市场出现如此剧烈的价格波动。</p>
</div><p>“We are sold out in certain bar sizes, weeks in advance and people they still buy,” said Sperzel of Heraeus, who said his company is operating at maximum capacity to try to meet the demand. “People are queueing for hours in front of these shops in order to buy products.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我们在某些条形尺寸上已经提前几周售罄，但人们仍然在购买，” 赫拉乌斯的 Sperzel 表示，他说他的公司正在以最大产能运作以满足需求。“人们在这些商店前排队几个小时以购买产品。”</p>
</div><p>The price moves have been most dramatic in silver, a relatively tiny market with an annual supply worth just US$98 billion at current prices, compared with US$787 billion for gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格波动在白银市场上最为剧烈，这是一个相对较小的市场，按当前价格计算，年供应量仅为 980 亿美元，而黄金的年供应量为 7870 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>On Friday, iShares Silver Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed by silver known by its ticker SLV, recorded more than US$40 billion in turnover. That made it one of the most traded securities on the planet, when just months ago it would rarely see more than US$2 billion traded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周五，iShares Silver Trust，即以白银为支持的最大交易所交易基金（ETF），其交易量超过 400 亿美元。这使其成为全球交易量最大的证券之一，而几个月前其交易量很少超过 20 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Activity in options, which have become increasingly popular with retail traders in recent years, was similarly feverish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期权交易的活动同样热烈，近年来在零售交易者中越来越受欢迎。</p>
</div><p>Seen by some investors as a cheap way to bet on market rallies, posts on the Reddit groups that had helped power previous retail surges into silver showed the gains of over 1,000 per cent that could be made from betting on silver’s rapid climb. The biggest gold and silver ETFs each saw record open interest and trading volumes on call options in recent weeks, and the volume of call options on SLV exceeded that of the main ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index of tech stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者将其视为押注市场上涨的廉价方式，Reddit 小组上的帖子显示，押注白银快速上涨可以获得超过 1000% 的收益。最近几周，最大的黄金和白银 ETF 在看涨期权方面都创下了记录的未平仓合约和交易量，而 SLV 的看涨期权交易量超过了跟踪纳斯达克 100 指数的主要 ETF。</p>
</div><p>When there are many outstanding calls, it sets the conditions for a squeeze, as dealers rush to hedge their positions by buying the underlying asset when prices start moving up, contributing to further price moves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当未平仓的看涨期权数量众多时，就为挤压创造了条件，因为交易商在价格开始上涨时急于通过购买基础资产来对冲他们的头寸，从而进一步推动价格波动。</p>
</div><p>“As we squeeze up, they have to mechanically keep buying more,” said Alexander Campbell, former head of commodities for Bridgewater Associates. “And that would explain why we go up so fast, and down so fast.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“随着我们被挤压上涨，他们必须机械性地不断购买更多，” Bridgewater Associates 前商品主管 Alexander Campbell 表示。“这就解释了为什么我们上涨如此之快，跌落也如此之快。”</p>
</div><p>Trump’s comment that the under-pressure US dollar was “doing great” on Tuesday night triggered a final frenzy of metals buying, pushing prices to new records. By Thursday, Gold reached US$5,595 an ounce, silver topped US$121 and copper hit US$14,527.50.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普在周二晚上表示，承压的美元 “表现很好” 的评论引发了最后一波金属购买热潮，推动价格创下新高。到周四，黄金达到了每盎司 5,595 美元，白银超过 121 美元，铜价达到了 14,527.50 美元。</p>
</div><p>The first sign of a reversal came later Thursday, when the US dollar turned higher as US markets opened and gold suddenly plunged, at one point dropping more than US$200 an ounce in about ten minutes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>反转的第一个迹象出现在周四晚些时候，当美国市场开盘时，美元转强，黄金突然暴跌，在短短十分钟内一度下跌超过 200 美元。</p>
</div><p>Prices briefly stabilised, but then Bloomberg and other news organisations reported that Trump was planning to nominate Warsh as the next Fed chair. Where previously the Asian morning session had reliably driven prices higher – as bleary-eyed European traders watched on in astonishment – this time, Chinese investors took profits. The seeds of Friday’s dramatic crash were sown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格短暂稳定，但随后彭博社和其他新闻机构报道特朗普计划提名沃什为下一任美联储主席。此前，亚洲早盘交易通常会推动价格上涨——而迷迷糊糊的欧洲交易员对此感到惊讶——这一次，中国投资者选择了获利了结。周五戏剧性崩盘的种子已经埋下。</p>
</div><p>“China sold and now we’re suffering the consequences,” Campbell said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“中国抛售，现在我们正在承受后果，” 坎贝尔说道。</p>
</div><p>What comes next may once again depend on China. Investors will be watching closely for when trading opens in Shanghai on Sunday evening New York time, to see whether Chinese demand for metals can be revived after the shock selloff. A 16 to 19 per cent daily limit on price moves for various silver contracts on Chinese exchanges means Shanghai’s prices may need to play catch-up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来可能再次取决于中国。投资者将密切关注周日晚上纽约时间上海开盘时，看看中国对金属的需求是否能在震荡抛售后恢复。中国交易所对各种银合约的每日价格波动限制在 16% 到 19% 之间，这意味着上海的价格可能需要追赶。</p>
</div><p>Still, the pullback ahead of the Chinese New Year, a traditional buying season, may offer an entry point, with retail investors who had missed the rally waiting to step in. In Shuibei, a major bullion trading hub, tightness in silver has eased somewhat, with more selling than buying over the weekend, according to traders. But there are no signs of panic selling, and Shuibei silver prices are still trading at a premium to exchange contracts, they said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，在中国农历新年之前的回调，作为一个传统的购买季节，可能提供了一个入场点，错过上涨的散户投资者正等待入场。根据交易员的说法，在主要的贵金属交易中心水贝，银的紧张局势有所缓解，周末卖出量超过买入量。但没有恐慌性抛售的迹象，水贝的银价仍然高于交易所合约的价格。</p>
</div><p>As retail interest simmers, several Chinese banks on Friday announced fresh measures to curb risks tied to retail gold accumulation products, following a series of similar moves over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着散户兴趣的降温，几家中国银行在周五宣布采取新措施，以遏制与散户黄金积累产品相关的风险，此前一年内已采取了一系列类似措施。</p>
</div><p>China Construction Bank said that it will raise the minimum deposit amount from Monday and urged investors to heighten risk awareness, while Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said it will implement quota controls for its Ruyi Gold Savings service during holidays. Exchanges have also taken several steps that could rein in the broad rally in metal markets globally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国建设银行表示，将从周一起提高最低存款金额，并敦促投资者增强风险意识，而中国工商银行则表示将在假期期间对其如意黄金储蓄服务实施配额控制。交易所也采取了一些措施，可能会抑制全球金属市场的广泛上涨。</p>
</div><p>“Gold is relatively strong; I see a lot of dip buyers coming in the past two days to purchase jewellery and bars before the Chinese New Year,” said Liu Shunmin, head of risk at trader Shenzhen Guoxing Precious Metal. “Whereas for silver, there’s a strong inclination to stand on the sidelines.” BLOOMBERG</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“黄金相对强劲；我看到过去两天有很多抄底买家在农历新年前购买珠宝和金条，” 交易商深圳国兴贵金属的风险负责人刘顺敏说道。“而对于银，强烈倾向于观望。” 彭博社</p>
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中国投机者为黄金和白银的崩盘做好了准备