<p>要点：</p>
<ul>
<li>房地产开发商的股票因政策利好而大幅上涨</li>
<li>但对私营企业的贷款仍然稀缺，开发商表示</li>
<li>持续下降的房屋销售表明市场尚未稳定</li>
<li>有关帮助该行业的措施的详细信息，请点击这里</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Clare Jim</p>
<p>中国疲弱的房地产市场最近出现了一些积极的头条新闻，但私营房地产开发商和分析师都警告称，该行业仍面临资金挑战和长期下滑的价格，需求疲软。</p>
<p>好的一面是：上个月一份共产党期刊呼吁采取 “强有力的政策行动” 来帮助该行业，而监管机构上周似乎已经取消了限制开发商债务比率的 “三条红线” 政策，这些政策引发了 2021 年的房地产债务危机。</p>
<p>根据消息来源，某些受欢迎项目的开发商将获得五年贷款延期，这是其他鼓舞人心的迹象。中国还计划扩大其 REIT 市场。</p>
<p>上周五，国有的越秀地产和中国海外大洋公司在香港推出了点心债券发行，进一步表明市场情绪正在改善。</p>
<p>一系列积极的消息帮助提升了该行业的股票，CSI 300 房地产指数今年迄今上涨了 5%。</p>
<p>房地产高管们感到相当沮丧</p>
<p>但在一线的高管们感受却截然不同。</p>
<p>“我看不出私营开发商将如何生存，” 一家总部位于上海的公司的高级高管表示，该公司是众多在流动性危机后违约的开发商之一，流动性危机是由 “三条红线” 政策引发的。</p>
<p>尽管提供了抵押品，并且尽管出台了鼓励向该行业贷款的政策，他的公司仍未能从银行获得新贷款，该高管表示，由于话题的敏感性，他要求不透露姓名。</p>
<p>投资者正关注全国人民代表大会和中国人民政治协商会议在三月份的年度全体会议上可能提供的更多政策支持，以及四月份的政治局会议。</p>
<p>但一位国有开发商的高级高管表示，他并不期待今年会有强有力的刺激或其他措施显著改变市场。</p>
<p>这主要是因为在过去五年中，传统措施已经采取——利率已降低，购房限制已大幅放宽，银行也被鼓励提供贷款。</p>
<p>据一家部委媒体报道，“三条红线” 政策的明显废除也在某种程度上是象征性的。开发商和分析师指出，这些规则实际上已经放松了一段时间，但银行的贷款实践并没有显著变化。</p>
<p>房地产前瞻研究公司的首席执行官 Robert Ciemniak 表示，他预计政策制定的范式将保持 “支持而非刺激”。如果地方政府扩大回购土地和未售住房开发项目的计划，将其转变为经济适用房，开发商可能会受益。</p>
<p>房屋销售下滑的痛苦</p>
<p>该行业的债务危机和随之而来的未完成公寓过剩对世界第二大经济体造成了沉重打击，该经济体还在应对与美国加剧的贸易紧张关系带来的后果。</p>
<p>经济增长缓慢，加上就业和财务不安全感上升，打击了购房者的信心，房价持续下跌。</p>
<p>瑞银分析师 John Lam 在给客户的报告中表示，目前还为时尚早，无法说房地产市场已经稳定，强调新房销售疲软，并补充说任何真正的复苏都应以家庭收入的增长为基础。</p>
<p>中国的新房价格在 12 月份同比下降了 2.7%，较上个月的 2.4% 降幅加快，创下五个月以来的最快降幅。</p>
<p>单独数据显示，2025 年中国房地产投资暴跌 17.2%，而按建筑面积计算的房屋销售下降了 8.7%。路透社的一项季度调查显示，预计 2026 年新房价格将再下降 3.7%。</p>
<p>这将继续给努力履行债务义务的中国房地产开发商带来痛苦。</p>
<p>这场危机已经导致中国恒大，这家曾经是国内最大的开发商，如今正在清算，而另一家知名企业碧桂园最近完成了其离岸债务的重组。</p>
<p>以在中国最大城市进行重大项目而闻名的万科企业，最近获得了债权人的批准，推迟部分还款，避免了潜在的违约。</p>
<p>但信用分析师表示，万科可能会走上与其他资金紧张的中国开发商类似的道路，并最终寻求债务重组。</p>

易方达沪深300非银ETF

300地产

辽宁成大

南方中证全指房地产ETF

<p>中国房地产市场在政策变化和债券销售的推动下显示出改善的迹象，但开发商仍然保持谨慎。尽管 CSI 300 房地产指数上涨了 5%，许多私营开发商在资金和房屋销售下降方面仍面临困难。分析师预测价格将继续下跌，且缺乏显著的刺激措施。该行业的债务危机仍在持续，主要开发商如恒大等的违约事件凸显了这一问题，新房价格同比下降了 2.7%。由于市场面临经济挑战和买家信心疲软，前景依然不确定</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要点：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Property developer shares have jumped on encouraging policy signs</li>
<li>But lending to private firms still scarce, developer says</li>
<li>Continued declining home sales point to a market that hasn't stabilised</li>
<li>For a factbox on measures to help the sector, please clickhere</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>房地产开发商的股票因政策利好而大幅上涨</li>
<li>但对私营企业的贷款仍然稀缺，开发商表示</li>
<li>持续下降的房屋销售表明市场尚未稳定</li>
<li>有关帮助该行业的措施的详细信息，请点击这里</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Clare Jim</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Clare Jim</p>
</div><p>China's embattled property market has had a recent run of positive headlines, but private real estate developers and analysts alike caution that the sector remains beset by funding challenges and long-declining prices amid soft demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国疲弱的房地产市场最近出现了一些积极的头条新闻，但私营房地产开发商和分析师都警告称，该行业仍面临资金挑战和长期下滑的价格，需求疲软。</p>
</div><p>On the plus side: a Communist Party journal last month called for &#34;strong policy actions&#34; to help the industry, and regulators last week appeared to have done away with the &#34;three red lines&#34; policy of caps on developer debt ratios that limited bank lending - rules that sparked the property sector's debt crisis in 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好的一面是：上个月一份共产党期刊呼吁采取 “强有力的政策行动” 来帮助该行业，而监管机构上周似乎已经取消了限制开发商债务比率的 “三条红线” 政策，这些政策引发了 2021 年的房地产债务危机。</p>
</div><p>Among other encouraging signs, developers of certain favoured projects will be granted five-year extensions on loans, sources said last week. China also plans to expand its REIT market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据消息来源，某些受欢迎项目的开发商将获得五年贷款延期，这是其他鼓舞人心的迹象。中国还计划扩大其 REIT 市场。</p>
</div><p>And on Friday, state-owned Yuexiu Property  and China Overseas Grand Oceans  launched dim sum bond sales in Hong Kong, another indication of improving sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周五，国有的越秀地产和中国海外大洋公司在香港推出了点心债券发行，进一步表明市场情绪正在改善。</p>
</div><p>The run of upbeat news has helped lift shares in the sector with the CSI 300 Real Estate Index  climbing 5% for the year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一系列积极的消息帮助提升了该行业的股票，CSI 300 房地产指数今年迄今上涨了 5%。</p>
</div><p>PROPERTY EXECS PROPERLY DESPONDENT</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地产高管们感到相当沮丧</p>
</div><p>But executives with boots on the ground feel differently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在一线的高管们感受却截然不同。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I don't see how private developers are going to survive,&#34; said a senior executive at a Shanghai-based firm, one of many developers to have defaulted on debt in the wake of the liquidity crunch triggered by the &#34;three red lines&#34; policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我看不出私营开发商将如何生存，” 一家总部位于上海的公司的高级高管表示，该公司是众多在流动性危机后违约的开发商之一，流动性危机是由 “三条红线” 政策引发的。</p>
</div><p>His company has not been able to secure new loans from banks despite offering collateral and despite the policies put in place to encourage lending to the sector, the executive said, declining to be identified due to the sensitivity of the topic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管提供了抵押品，并且尽管出台了鼓励向该行业贷款的政策，他的公司仍未能从银行获得新贷款，该高管表示，由于话题的敏感性，他要求不透露姓名。</p>
</div><p>Investors are focusing on the potential for more policy support from annual plenary meetings of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March, as well as a Politburo meeting in April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者正关注全国人民代表大会和中国人民政治协商会议在三月份的年度全体会议上可能提供的更多政策支持，以及四月份的政治局会议。</p>
</div><p>But a senior executive at a state-owned developer, who also declined to be identified, said he does not expect strong stimulus or other measures that would significantly change the market this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但一位国有开发商的高级高管表示，他并不期待今年会有强有力的刺激或其他措施显著改变市场。</p>
</div><p>That's largely because over the last five years, traditional measures have already been taken - rates have been lowered, swathes of restrictions on homebuying have been lifted and banks have been encouraged to provide loans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这主要是因为在过去五年中，传统措施已经采取——利率已降低，购房限制已大幅放宽，银行也被鼓励提供贷款。</p>
</div><p>The apparent abolishment of the &#34;three red lines&#34; policy, as reported by a ministry media outlet, was also somewhat symbolic. Developers and analysts note the rules had de facto been relaxed for some time without noticeable changes in bank lending practices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据一家部委媒体报道，“三条红线” 政策的明显废除也在某种程度上是象征性的。开发商和分析师指出，这些规则实际上已经放松了一段时间，但银行的贷款实践并没有显著变化。</p>
</div><p>Robert Ciemniak, CEO of research firm Real Estate Foresight, said he expects the policymaking paradigm to remain &#34;support not stimulus&#34;. Developers could benefit if there were an expansion of a scheme whereby local governments buy back land and unsold housing developments to turn them into affordable housing, he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地产前瞻研究公司的首席执行官 Robert Ciemniak 表示，他预计政策制定的范式将保持 “支持而非刺激”。如果地方政府扩大回购土地和未售住房开发项目的计划，将其转变为经济适用房，开发商可能会受益。</p>
</div><p>THE PAIN OF SLIDING HOME SALES</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房屋销售下滑的痛苦</p>
</div><p>The sector's debt crisis and the ensuing glut of unfinished apartments have weighed heavily on the world's second-largest economy, which is also grappling with the fallout of heightened trade tensions with the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该行业的债务危机和随之而来的未完成公寓过剩对世界第二大经济体造成了沉重打击，该经济体还在应对与美国加剧的贸易紧张关系带来的后果。</p>
</div><p>Slow economic growth combined with rising job and financial insecurity has knocked homebuyer confidence, and home prices continue to fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济增长缓慢，加上就业和财务不安全感上升，打击了购房者的信心，房价持续下跌。</p>
</div><p>It is still too early to say that the property market has stabilised, UBS analyst John Lam said in a note to clients, highlighting weak sales of new homes and adding that any real recovery should be underpinned by rising household income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞银分析师 John Lam 在给客户的报告中表示，目前还为时尚早，无法说房地产市场已经稳定，强调新房销售疲软，并补充说任何真正的复苏都应以家庭收入的增长为基础。</p>
</div><p>China's new home prices in December dropped 2.7% year-on-year, quickening from a 2.4% fall in the previous month and marking the fastest decline in five months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国的新房价格在 12 月份同比下降了 2.7%，较上个月的 2.4% 降幅加快，创下五个月以来的最快降幅。</p>
</div><p>Separate data showed property investment in China tumbled 17.2% in 2025 while home sales by floor area decreased 8.7%. New home prices are expected to decline another 3.7% in 2026, a quarterly Reuters survey showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>单独数据显示，2025 年中国房地产投资暴跌 17.2%，而按建筑面积计算的房屋销售下降了 8.7%。路透社的一项季度调查显示，预计 2026 年新房价格将再下降 3.7%。</p>
</div><p>That will continue to spell pain for Chinese property developers struggling to make good on their debt obligations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这将继续给努力履行债务义务的中国房地产开发商带来痛苦。</p>
</div><p>The crisis has claimed China Evergrande, once the country's largest developer, which is now in liquidation, while Country Garden , another big name, recently completed a restructuring of its offshore debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这场危机已经导致中国恒大，这家曾经是国内最大的开发商，如今正在清算，而另一家知名企业碧桂园最近完成了其离岸债务的重组。</p>
</div><p>China Vanke , known for major projects in the country's biggest cities, recently gained creditor approval to defer some repayments, staving off a potential default.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以在中国最大城市进行重大项目而闻名的万科企业，最近获得了债权人的批准，推迟部分还款，避免了潜在的违约。</p>
</div><p>But credit analysts have said Vanke will likely follow a similar path to other cash-strapped Chinese developers and is likely to eventually seek a debt restructuring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但信用分析师表示，万科可能会走上与其他资金紧张的中国开发商类似的道路，并最终寻求债务重组。</p>
</div>

中国房地产市场是否出现了希望的迹象？开发商表示并非如此