<p>经过数月的猜测，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普确认他将提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）担任下一任联邦储备委员会主席。考虑到特朗普与美国中央银行及其现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）之间持续的冲突，这一任命备受关注。</p><p>对此公告的直接反应是黄金和白银市场的显著崩溃。在经历了数月的创纪录高位和高估值后，公告发布后，黄金和白银的现货价格分别下跌了 9% 和 28%。</p><p>美国股市也出现下跌，主要指数均报告了适度的损失。</p><p>然而，在对特朗普干预美联储的担忧背景下，市场崩溃可以讽刺地被理解为对沃什独立性和适合性的一次早期信任投票。</p><p>过去一年，特朗普与美联储之间的冲突前所未有。</p><p>特朗普在 2017 年任命了现任主席鲍威尔。然而，当鲍威尔没有像总统希望的那样迅速降息时，双方关系恶化。特朗普用他特有的生动语言称鲍威尔为 “小丑”，并表示他 “有一些真正的心理问题”。</p><h2>特朗普与美联储的战争</h2><p>言辞之战演变为法律威胁。特朗普的司法部宣布对美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）进行调查，原因是涉嫌在历史抵押贷款文件中存在欺诈行为。</p><p>然后在 2026 年 1 月，司法部对鲍威尔展开了一项刑事调查，涉及美联储办公室装修的超支问题。</p><p>这两组指控普遍被视为毫无根据。然而，特朗普试图利用这项调查作为解雇库克的理由。此案目前正在最高法院审理。</p><p>鲍威尔强烈反击特朗普，表示法律威胁是美联储根据中央银行家对公众利益的最佳评估设定利率的结果，而不是遵循总统的偏好。</p><p>鲍威尔得到了 14 位国际中央银行行长的支持，他们指出 “中央银行的独立性是价格、金融和经济稳定的基石”。</p><p>总统对美联储的干预是 1970 年代滞涨危机的主要原因。最近，阿根廷和土耳其都经历了因干预中央银行独立性而导致的重大金融危机。</p><h2>沃什：鹰派还是鸽派？</h2><p>沃什曾是一名银行家和美联储理事，曾担任特朗普和前总统乔治·W·布什的经济顾问。</p><p>最初，特朗普似乎更倾向于提名他国家经济委员会的现任主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）担任此职。然而，哈塞特被广泛认为受到特朗普的过多影响。</p><p>沃什显得更加独立，并以通胀 “鹰派” 的声誉而闻名——鹰派中央银行家优先考虑抗击通胀，而鸽派则优先考虑经济增长和就业。</p><p>在沃什之前的美联储任期内，他建立了强大的通胀鹰派声誉。即使在 2008 年全球金融危机之后，沃什也更担心通胀而非就业。</p><p>考虑到特朗普与鲍威尔在降息问题上的过去冲突，沃什似乎是一个奇怪的候选人选择。</p><p>然而，最近沃什已经缓和了他的观点，呼应特朗普对美联储的批评和对降低利率的要求。时间将证明这种支持是否会持续，或者他的鹰派倾向是否会回归——导致与特朗普的未来冲突。</p><p>黄金和白银的崩溃以及股市的下跌表明，投资者认为在沃什的领导下，降息的可能性低于其他候选人。</p><p>黄金和白银价格通常在不稳定或对通胀的担忧中上涨。之前的创纪录高位是由多种因素驱动的，包括全球不稳定、对美联储独立性的担忧以及投机泡沫。</p><p>贵金属市场的修正意味着投资者预期通胀将降低，金融稳定性将增强。美元汇率走高也支持了这一观点。</p><h2>美联储的信誉岌岌可危</h2><p>在过去一个月中，关于世界秩序变化的讨论颇为热烈。加拿大总理马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）最近谴责国际规则秩序的终结，并呼吁摆脱 “美国霸权”。</p><p>美元的全球主导地位是美国经济霸权的重要支柱。尽管特朗普显然对中央银行的独立性持怀疑态度，但他任命沃什表明他认识到保持美国货币和美联储信誉的重要性。</p><p>然而，特朗普是否能够抑制干预利率设定的本能，仍有待观察。THE CONVERSATION</p><p><strong>作者是悉尼大学政府与国际关系系的政治讲师</strong></p>

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<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下一任联邦储备委员会主席，这导致黄金和白银价格分别大幅下跌 9% 和 28%。这一市场反应反映了人们对特朗普与美联储之间过去冲突的担忧，以及他试图影响利率决策的行为。沃什被认为是一个鹰派人物，可能会带来比特朗普之前的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔更独立的做法。市场的修正表明，投资者预计在沃什的领导下，通货膨胀将降低，金融稳定性将增强</p>

<p>AFTER months of speculation, US President Donald Trump confirmed he will be nominating Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The appointment has been closely watched in light of Trump’s ongoing conflict with the American central bank and its current chairman, Jerome Powell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经过数月的猜测，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普确认他将提名凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）担任下一任联邦储备委员会主席。考虑到特朗普与美国中央银行及其现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）之间持续的冲突，这一任命备受关注。</p>
</div><p>The immediate reaction to the announcement was a significant crash in gold and silver markets. After months of record highs and stretched valuations, spot prices for gold and silver dropped 9 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively, after the announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对此公告的直接反应是黄金和白银市场的显著崩溃。在经历了数月的创纪录高位和高估值后，公告发布后，黄金和白银的现货价格分别下跌了 9% 和 28%。</p>
</div><p>The US stock market also fell, with major indices all reporting modest losses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股市也出现下跌，主要指数均报告了适度的损失。</p>
</div><p>However, in the context of concerns over Trump’s interference with the Fed, the market crash can ironically be understood as an early vote of confidence in Warsh’s independence and suitability for the role.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在对特朗普干预美联储的担忧背景下，市场崩溃可以讽刺地被理解为对沃什独立性和适合性的一次早期信任投票。</p>
</div><p>The last year has seen Trump in an unprecedented conflict with the Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一年，特朗普与美联储之间的冲突前所未有。</p>
</div><p>Trump appointed current chair Powell in 2017. However, the relationship soured when Powell did not cut interest rates as quickly as the president wanted. In characteristically colourful language, Trump has called Powell a “clown” with “some real mental problems”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普在 2017 年任命了现任主席鲍威尔。然而，当鲍威尔没有像总统希望的那样迅速降息时，双方关系恶化。特朗普用他特有的生动语言称鲍威尔为 “小丑”，并表示他 “有一些真正的心理问题”。</p>
</div><h2>Trump’s war with the Fed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普与美联储的战争</h2>
</div><p>The war of words descended into legal threats. Trump’s Justice Department announced an investigation into Fed governor Lisa Cook over alleged fraud in historical mortgage documents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>言辞之战演变为法律威胁。特朗普的司法部宣布对美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）进行调查，原因是涉嫌在历史抵押贷款文件中存在欺诈行为。</p>
</div><p>Then in January 2026, the Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into Powell relating to overspending in renovations of the Fed offices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后在 2026 年 1 月，司法部对鲍威尔展开了一项刑事调查，涉及美联储办公室装修的超支问题。</p>
</div><p>Both sets of allegations are widely viewed as baseless. However, Trump has tried to use the investigation as grounds to fire Cook. The case is currently before the Supreme Court.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两组指控普遍被视为毫无根据。然而，特朗普试图利用这项调查作为解雇库克的理由。此案目前正在最高法院审理。</p>
</div><p>Powell has hit back strongly at Trump, saying the legal threats were a consequence of the Fed setting interest rates based on the central bankers’ best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔强烈反击特朗普，表示法律威胁是美联储根据中央银行家对公众利益的最佳评估设定利率的结果，而不是遵循总统的偏好。</p>
</div><p>Powell received support from 14 international central bank chiefs, who noted “the independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔得到了 14 位国际中央银行行长的支持，他们指出 “中央银行的独立性是价格、金融和经济稳定的基石”。</p>
</div><p>Presidential interference with the Fed was a major cause of the stagflation crisis in the 1970s. More recently, both Argentina and Turkey have experienced significant financial crises caused by interference with central bank independence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总统对美联储的干预是 1970 年代滞涨危机的主要原因。最近，阿根廷和土耳其都经历了因干预中央银行独立性而导致的重大金融危机。</p>
</div><h2>Warsh: Hawk or dove?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>沃什：鹰派还是鸽派？</h2>
</div><p>Previously a banker and Fed governor, Warsh has served as economic adviser to both Trump and former president George W Bush.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什曾是一名银行家和美联储理事，曾担任特朗普和前总统乔治·W·布什的经济顾问。</p>
</div><p>Originally, Trump seemed to favour the current director of his National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, for the job. However, Hassett was widely viewed as being too influenced by Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，特朗普似乎更倾向于提名他国家经济委员会的现任主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）担任此职。然而，哈塞特被广泛认为受到特朗普的过多影响。</p>
</div><p>Warsh appears more independent and brings a reputation as an inflation “hawk” – a central banker who prioritises fighting inflation, compared to a “dove” who prioritises growth and jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃什显得更加独立，并以通胀 “鹰派” 的声誉而闻名——鹰派中央银行家优先考虑抗击通胀，而鸽派则优先考虑经济增长和就业。</p>
</div><p>From Warsh’s previous time at the Fed, he established a strong reputation as an inflation hawk. Even in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, Warsh was more worried about inflation than jobs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在沃什之前的美联储任期内，他建立了强大的通胀鹰派声誉。即使在 2008 年全球金融危机之后，沃什也更担心通胀而非就业。</p>
</div><p>Given Trump’s past conflict with Powell around cutting interest rates, Warsh might seem a curious choice of candidate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到特朗普与鲍威尔在降息问题上的过去冲突，沃什似乎是一个奇怪的候选人选择。</p>
</div><p>More recently, though, Warsh has moderated his views, echoing Trump’s criticism of the Fed and demands for lower interest rates. Time will tell whether this support will continue, or if his hawkish tendencies return – leading to future conflict with Trump.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，最近沃什已经缓和了他的观点，呼应特朗普对美联储的批评和对降低利率的要求。时间将证明这种支持是否会持续，或者他的鹰派倾向是否会回归——导致与特朗普的未来冲突。</p>
</div><p>The crash in gold and silver and decline in stock markets suggest investors view interest rate cuts as less likely under Warsh than alternative candidates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金和白银的崩溃以及股市的下跌表明，投资者认为在沃什的领导下，降息的可能性低于其他候选人。</p>
</div><p>Gold and silver prices typically rise in response to instability or fears of inflation. The previous record highs were driven by many factors, including global instability, concerns over Fed independence and a speculative bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金和白银价格通常在不稳定或对通胀的担忧中上涨。之前的创纪录高位是由多种因素驱动的，包括全球不稳定、对美联储独立性的担忧以及投机泡沫。</p>
</div><p>The market correction in precious metals means investors expect lower inflation and greater financial stability. The US dollar trading higher also supports this view.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>贵金属市场的修正意味着投资者预期通胀将降低，金融稳定性将增强。美元汇率走高也支持了这一观点。</p>
</div><h2>Fed credibility at stake</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储的信誉岌岌可危</h2>
</div><p>There has been much discussion of the changing world order in the past month. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently decried the end of the international rules-based order and called for a break from “American hegemony”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去一个月中，关于世界秩序变化的讨论颇为热烈。加拿大总理马克·卡尼（Mark Carney）最近谴责国际规则秩序的终结，并呼吁摆脱 “美国霸权”。</p>
</div><p>The global dominance of the greenback is a crucial plank of US economic hegemony. Though Trump clearly remains sceptical of central bank independence, his appointment of Warsh suggests he recognises the importance of retaining the credibility of the American currency and Fed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元的全球主导地位是美国经济霸权的重要支柱。尽管特朗普显然对中央银行的独立性持怀疑态度，但他任命沃什表明他认识到保持美国货币和美联储信誉的重要性。</p>
</div><p>Whether Trump can temper the instinct to interfere with the setting of interest rates, however, remains to be seen. THE CONVERSATION</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特朗普是否能够抑制干预利率设定的本能，仍有待观察。THE CONVERSATION</p>
</div><p><strong>The writer is lecturer in politics at the University of Sydney’s government and international relations department</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>作者是悉尼大学政府与国际关系系的政治讲师</strong></p>
</div>

Why Trump’s new pick for Fed chair hit gold and silver markets

- 特朗普提名沃什为联邦储备委员会主席，备受市场关注。  
- 黄金、白银价格大幅下跌，股市也出现损失。  
- 沃什的任命引发对美联储独立性的担忧。

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为什么特朗普的新任美联储主席人选对黄金和白银市场产生了影响